BC-UConn preview

Everyone -- myself included -- is drinking the Kool-aid and believing the hype. I don't know if it will last. I don't know if it is real. But it is fun. And in the end, I think that's what I want. There were moments of fun during the Spaz and Addazio days, but the flaws on the field and the flaws of those wearing the headsets felt so permanent, that it was hard to get too juiced up. Hafley lost to Northern Illinois this year, so I am not calling him the next Coughlin. But the way this win streak and season is coming together gives me hope he is figuring things out. In the meantime, let's keep rolling and enjoy it while we can. 

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
Earlier this year when it looked like the Hafley era might be coming to a close, the typical internet speculation kicked in. Inevitably there were plenty of "this guy would never take that job" comments. I usually retort with "you'd be surprised about who would take what as there are only so many jobs." A textbook case of guys looking for any job is Jim Mora at UConn. This is a long-time NFL coach and a guy who coached at UCLA. He had no connection to UConn or really the region. Yet here he was taking the UConn job. My point is these guys usually need to work for ego, financial and boredom reasons and there are only so many high-level jobs. Now would Nick Saban drop everything and take the UConn job? Of course not. But guys looking for their shot or a second chance or a salary north of $1 million will. And they will certainly listen to BC when our job opens up one day.

Three Simple Keys
1. Be conservative with new wrinkles and counters. I am not taking UConn for granted. But we shouldn't have to do much other than just plow forward and run them over. I don't want BC using any new looks or variations. Save those for the games where we are underdogs.
2. Be more aggressive with the punt returns. We've been letting too many punts roll and putting our Offense in bad starting field positions. We need to curtail that.
3. Continue to play aggressive man coverage. After we got burned against Louisville, I thought our DBs were terrible. They've looked better of late. I hope they continue to play more man this weekend as it helps the front and creates turnovers.

Gambling Notes
-- BC leads the series 12-1-2 
 -- UConn has never won or tied at Alumni
 -- UConn is 3-4 against the spread this year
The current line is BC-14

Factoid
This is UConn's second visit to Alumni since their lawsuit against BC after the Big East split.

Scoreboard Watching
Duke-Louisville. On Sunday, some true believers started circulating a twitter post regarding what needs to happen for BC to make the ACC Championship Game. It's a lot, but the fact that we are even entertaining a run is nice. Needless to say, we need both Duke and Louisville to lose some games down the stretch. Someone is getting a loss in this game.

BC is in trouble if...we can't get the run going. I don't see us as one-dimensional, but I don't think this current roster lends itself to being pass heavy.

I hope to see...no one get hurt. Too often in these cupcake games we see a brutal, season changing injury.

Bottom Line
Last year was a nightmare and won't happen again. I think BC plays smart and tough and UConn can't keep up.
Final Score: BC 35, UConn 14

BC-Georgia Tech preview

From a fan perspective, these close games can be exhausting. Who wants to be sweating out a rainy game against Army? But beyond our emotions, lots of close games are not a good sign. Very good teams win by healthy margins. The problem with playing too many close games is it magnifies one or two plays and invites the opponent to steal the game from you. Unlike say TOB's penchant for close games, I don't think it is a product of playing too conservatively. In most of these cases it is because BC either starts slow or goes cold for long stretches. To truly turn the corner, Hafley needs the team to play at a high level for 60 minutes.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
Georgia Tech is playing Florida State in Ireland next year. We haven't been back since we played the Yellow Jackets in 2016 and I don't know when will potentially play there again. I know we didn't max out on our tickets and packages last time (enthusiasm wasn't great coming off Addazio's worst season). But Addazio also pissed off a lot of the Irish organizers. He did his typical bully, yell at innocent people who are just trying to do their jobs routine throughout the trip. Despite our problems now, putting up with seven years of his behavior for .500 football was an incredible waste of time and good will.

Three Simple Keys
1. Avoid Castellanos turnovers. I will give him a break for the Army game. It was a wet, wet mess. But the truth is he does force some bad throws. He can't keep doing that because GT and all remaining opponents are going to stack the box and dare him to throw.
2. Put the game on the offensive line again. They get better each week, so it should remain an advantage. In Tech's bad losses this year, it was because the other team controlled the Line and put up big numbers on the ground.
3. Reset after taking on a gimmick offense. BC looked good against Army's new look until they lost focus and started biting on plays in the second half. Tech is more conventional but play action will still be a factor. BC needs to stay focused.

Gambling Notes
-- Hafley is 2-0 vs Georgia Tech
-- GT leads the series 7-4
-- BC is 1-1 against the spread this year on the road
The current line is BC+5

Factoid

BC has never won three in a row vs Georgia Tech.

Scoreboard Watching
Pitt-Wake Forest. I thought Pitt's season was over, but a QB change sparked a huge upset last week. Can they keep it up this week? 

BC is in trouble if...we don't score 30 or more. These close games are not going to always go our way. We need to be a little more aggressive and efficient on offense.

I hope to see...BC increase their pace a bit this week. As much as I appreciate a good, methodical and dominant run performance, I think a slower game helps Tech. We can keep it on the ground, but let's use tempo a good bit. 

Bottom Line
My confidence level isn't as high for this game as others, but Georgia Tech is beatable. I think Castellanos puts up some big numbers in his home state and our D does enough to win without it coming down to the last minute.
Final Score: BC 35, Georgia Tech 24

BC-Army preview

The short season nature of college football always has you looking ahead to the rest of the schedule. After BC beat Virginia last week, I revisited the remaining opponents and felt better. As UConn, Pitt and Georgia Tech’s terrible days progressed, BC’s chance at a winning season and Hafley saving his job became much more viable. All of that presumes we beat Army this week. The Cadets are favored and our last trip to West Point was a disaster. But we can win this week. We have to win this week.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
BC doesn’t schedule the service academies enough. It has been ten years since we played Army, 20 since we played Navy and 43 years since we’ve played Air Force. The East Coast academies used to be a regular part of our schedule. I know their offenses are hard to play and there is very little upside. But you have to play someone out of conference. Isn’t playing Army or Navy more respectable than trying to drum up a series with a random mid-major? With the conferences in flux, I know we can’t predict much regarding future schedules, but I hope BC calls Army and Navy first when they are trying to fill out their calendars.

Three Simple Keys
1. Disciplined play on the Defensive line. Army’s new offense is more like Wake’s than the Triple Option, but it still starts with an option style read in the backfield. Our DLine needs to win their battles up front and keep Army from establishing tempo or space in the pocket.
2. Get Bond more touches. It is natural when things are gloomy to latch on to the first sign of life. I know Bond won’t be Zay tomorrow (or maybe ever), but he has some key attributes – finding space, making people miss, etc – that are in short supply. We need to get him seven or eight touches this week.
3. Win the turnover battle. We got lucky last week. Very lucky. This week we need to protect the ball more and hopefully force a few turnovers.

Gambling Notes
-- BC leads the series 25-13
-- BC is 12-11 in Michie Stadium
-- Hafley is 7-4 in non-conference games
The current line is BC+3

Factoid
We had a five game win streak vs Army prior to Spaz’s loss in 2012 and a nine game win streak prior to Henning’s loss in 1995.

Scoreboard Watching
Syracuse-UNC. The Orange lost last week (which gave me some hope). Immediately people online mentioned this year might be another season where Baber’s starts hot and ends the season in a free fall. I hope so. It will be telling if they bounce back this week vs Carolina.

BC is in trouble if… Army eats up the clock. They are not triple option, but they are still slow and methodical. We can’t let them have seven and eight minute drives.

I hope to see… Castellanos be more careful with the ball. He looked good on the ground, but the passing game was a hit or miss. Castellanos can’t force things and needs to be careful throwing into coverage.

Bottom Line
I think this is another close game. BC wins by making fewer mistakes and Hafley gets us back to .500
Final Score: BC 28, Army 20

BC-Virginia preview

We’ve suffered some beatdowns before, but usually they are against elite teams...Miami in its heyday. Clemson recently. Notre Dame put up some lopsided numbers when they are trending up and we are trending down. But this year’s Louisville team is not elite. It is not like losing to a mediocre Army or Navy team, but the lack of effort and lack of adjustments and the inability to stop them were terrible. Can we bounce back? Sure. We are even favored this week. But last week was the first time it felt like Hafley has lost the lockerroom.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
In case you missed it, BC just announced a new $3 billion capital campaign. $400 million of the goal is for athletics. When people predict that BC will downgrade athletics or purposefully opt out of the looming super leagues, you only need to look at this to know the Board understands the value of sports. I hope the lofty goal as well as new pressure from the ACC forces BC to be more active in supporting and managing their teams.

Three Simple Keys
1. Pressure on the whoever plays QB for UVA. One of the reasons Louisville was able to hit so many long passes is our pass rush. At this point, blitz more just to shake things up. Both of their guys might play this weekend. We need to bring the pressure regardless.
2. Give more design runs for Castellanos. At this point he is our only elite playmaker. Give him some simple RPOs.
3. Don’t get down early. This team is on the edge. If we get behind by double digits again, it will be over.

Gambling notes
--Virginia is 2-2 against the spread
-- Virginia has lost seven straight
-- BC leads the series 6-1
The current line is BC-3.5

Factoid
This is BC’s first national game on the CW Network. It is basically the old Raycom production so it won’t feel that foreign to regular fans. It will be interesting to see if this relationship grows. Football, above all other sports, drives TV and over the air TV companies need draws just like the cable and streamers.

Scoreboard Watching
Clemson-Syracuse. The Orange are 4-0 again which leads to the semi-regular question: is Syracuse good this year? Clemson is also in a desperate need of an ACC win, so this should be pretty telling for both.

BC is in trouble if… We come out flat again. Virginia is bad. They are looking for reasons to fold. If we come out flat again, we give them new life.

I hope to see… The Offensive line dominate. Lost in all the disappointment is how improved the Oline is. It is still a long way to go to get them to elite, but being functional is a step in the right direction. Their biggest problem has been penalties.

Bottom Line
If you have a terrible game, it is nice to rebound against a bad team. I think as long as we limit the big pass plays, BC should be ok. We will score enough to win, it is just a matter of holding them.
Final Score: BC 28, Virginia 21

BC-Louisville preview

I can only speak for myself when I say I never believed. Even as we were making the comeback. Even as big plays were happening, I didn’t think we would upset Florida State. I don’t know if it is a sign of apathy or frustration or being jaded. It probably helps my heart rate, but it doesn’t generate a lot of optimism heading into a game where we are double-digit underdogs again. 

Can we win this week? Sure. Cut back on mistakes. Stop with the penalties. Plus Castellanos seems like that type of wild card where you can never count him out. Now it is up to Hafley to turn those “ifs” into tangible results. He thinks we are close to breaking through. I hope he is right.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
As most probably know the Swim and Dive teams were indefinitely suspended. I feel for the victims as the alleged hazing sucks and I can’t believe anyone even partially endorses this sort of thing anymore. I feel for the kids who weren’t part of it but whose season ends. However, the students will have more eligibility so they can make up the time. What shows my stage of life is my empathy is now with the parents whose kids won’t swim this year. BC Swimming – like most sports outside of football and basketball – has the majority of the team on partial scholarships or no scholarships at all. Parents are paying tens of thousands of dollars for their children to swim at BC. Now they won’t. What a waste.

Three Simple Keys 
1. Stop the drops. It is getting a little better but some of the drops last week were drive killers.
2. Control the clock again. Penalties aside, the Oline is so much better than last year. Leverage that by running the ball and wearing on the Louisville front.
3. Get more pressure on the quarterback. Our front four needs to step it up and close out on their chances at Plummer.

Gambling notes 
-- Hafley is 2-1 vs Louisville
-- Hafley is 6-11 on the road
-- Louisville leads the series 8-7
The current line is BC+14

Factoid
This is the first time we have played Louisville in September as a member of the ACC. The prior schedules had some general patterns to them, but now with the lack of divisions and a rotation of teams on and off, there will be fewer games scheduled with the idea of patterns and time of year etc.

Scoreboard Watching
Florida State-Clemson. I heard and read that many people thought we exposed Florida State. I actually think Florida State was very good but just had a bit of an off day. It will be interesting to see how they look against Clemson. I am expecting them to make a major statement and make our game look more like an aberration.

BC is in trouble if… We get down by double digits again. It is just too much pressure on the offense week in and week out.

I hope to see… A reasonable amount of penalties. If Hafley can’t get control of the trend then he might not be cut out to be a head coach. The shocking number of penalties exposes the way he is managing his staff, teaching his players and even handling the refs.

Bottom Line
I said I didn’t believe last week. I have a sliver of belief now, so I might as well ride it. I think Castellanos puts on a show. We get lucky on some turnovers and hold on for a huge win.
Final Score: BC 28, Louisville 24

BC-FSU preview

I don't think I realized at the time how bad the weather delay was for Jeff Hafley. It was nearly two hours of the only BC fans who still care venting online or listening to the BC radio crew discuss their frustrations and the team's stupid mistakes. BC won (thank God), but we went through the emotions of a loss. When the only people who still care lose faith, a win can still be a loss. 

This week can be a different story. BC faces the best team in the conference. They are heavy underdogs. Win and it changes the whole season. Lose close and you get the moral victory. If we get killed, nothing really changes.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)

It amazes me how much media attention Deion Sanders and Colorado are getting. Despite their success in the late '80s and mid '90s, the Buffaloes were a non-entity for most of the last twenty years. Yet it only takes one good hire to change everything.

Three Simple Keys
1. Establish the run early. This needs to feel like the BC Football we all know. Run the ball and control the clock. It is the only way we have to steal the game.

2. Get lucky on some turnovers. I don't know if you can get luckier than BC got last week with the game sealing fumble, but we need similar breaks to go our way this week.

3. Contain Jordan Travis. We can't let him run like we let Sluka run last week.

Gambling notes
-- BC is 4-5 in Red Bandanna games

-- Florida State is 9-1 in their last ten games vs BC

-- Hafley is 1-2 in ACC openers

The current like is BC+26

Factoid

This won't be the first major storm we've had when facing Florida State. In 2007, FSU handed Jags his first loss on a very wet night in Boston.

Scoreboard Watching

It is not a great week for ACC football. Maybe it will be interesting if Duke keeps rolling in their matchup against Norwestern.

BC is in trouble if...
Florida State scores more than 35. We are not built to win a shootout in the rain.

I hope to see...

No personal fouls. Hafley made it a point of emphasis. Let's see if he can get his team to follow his instructions.

Bottom line

I will be shocked if we win this game. I am rooting for BC (as always). But I can't talk myself into some scenario where we pull off an upset. I think FSU is going to go undefeated in the ACC. Hopefully we keep it close.

Final Score: FSU 31, BC 14

BC-Holy Cross preview

The social media and message board discussion following last week's opening loss had a consistent theme: "Fire Hafley." I am not there yet. My blinders are off, but I see nothing productive from firing him midseason. Let him, his staff and team do what they set out to do. My hunch is that if he stops the bleeding and scrapes together a winning season, he will be safe. Should he be though?

I like Hafley as a person and representative of the school. But now even an apologist like me has to admit he has a limited upside. Great coaches don't lose like this and this often (in Year 4 especially). Do you let a nice guy stick around if he is squeaking out seven wins? We let a jerk like Addazio keep coaching for seven years. 

In this era of college football, you should probably be quick to fire. The rosters churn faster than ever, so you can't wait for a guy to build his team in the traditional way. The new need is for a coach who can put a staff and roster together year to year and out perform his competition.

The timing on this debate is somewhat surreal since one of the most likely Hafley replacements will be on the other sideline this weekend. And if Holy Cross wins, there will be many who want to fire Hafley and hire Chesney on the spot.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
We should play Holy Cross annually and in all sports. The true rivalry was dead long before I arrived at the Heights, but I appreciate it still means something to many people. And I think to this day, there are plenty of students who have friends and family at each school. BC is going to have schedule filler, FCS games for years to come. Might as well make them interesting to some, instead of playing some random school that we have never heard about. 

Three Simple Keys
1. Catch the damn ball. The QBs were bad, but the WRs, TEs and RBs did them no favors when it came to the passing game. They need to clean up their skills (why are guys trying arm catches?) and help out.
2. No more Oline penalties. The good news: the Oline controlled their opponents. Bad news: they still made a ton of mistakes and dumb penalties. 

3. Get more pressure on the QB. Our DLine was supposed to be a strength. Last week they looked mediocre. 

Gambling Notes

-- Hafley has never lost to a FCS team
-- Hafley is 16-20 against the spread

-- Holy Cross last beat BC Football in 1978

The current line is BC-16.5

Factoid
Even with the historic breaks in the series we still have played more games against Holy Cross (83 games) than any other current opponent, including Syracuse.

Scoreboard Watching
Colorado-Nebraska. I don't know if Coach Prime can keep it up, but I am always cheering for quick turnarounds. It gives me hope.

I hope to see...
One QB. The old adage remains true: if you have two quarterbacks you have none.

BC is in trouble if...
It is close late. My fear is that if it is tight, our guys will make mistakes and hand the game to Holy Cross.

Bottom Line
BC takes care of business, looks better and puts more points on the board.

Final Score: BC 38, Holy Cross 17

BC-Northern Illinois preview

This is it. I like Hafley and appreciate the different tone he brought when he arrived. I respect how he handled COVID and that unprecedented first season. But since Jurk went down in 2021 in the UMass game, we’ve been adrift. At a base level, this is the time to get things back on track. At a realistic level, if Hafley is anything special we need to bounce back in a big way. The landscape has changed in college football. His bosses have changed twice. The portal and NIL changed the way you recruit and develop talent. It’s tough. However, the great guys not only adapt in times like this…they thrive.

I trust that Hafley has improved his staff and roster. He pivoted and used the portal to plug holes. While lacking in game breakers, we have depth and above average talent across the board. And we have a very favorable schedule. We have four wins baked in the final record with our non-conference slate. There are also three very winnable ACC games. That means seven games is a reasonable goal. I would like to win more than that. Whatever the upside is, it starts Saturday.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
The dominant narrative of the college football offseason was once again conference shifting. Games are about to start and the ACC is still in flux for 2024. It has been that way for more than 20 years. I don’t think picking up a few former Pac 12 teams or even SMU (!?!) is going to be the end of anything. As a BC fan, I don’t get too fired up about any of the shifts any more. The train is heading towards the Super League and I don’t think BC controls its own fate. In the meantime, I am a simple man with simple desires. Are we playing teams I care about? Yes. Are we on TV? Yes. Are the games fun to watch? I hope. Are we winning? We better.

Three Simple Keys
1. Hold up against the run. The defensive line needs to be better and more consistent. They have to conrol the line of scrimmage. And we can't allow a back breaking 4th quarter drive like we did in last season's opener. 
2. Stretch the field. We don't have a Zay, but that aggressive mindset can't go away. Morehead can get it downfield. We need to let him go for it a few times per game.
3. Generate more turnovers. Considering his defensive background, I would think by now Hafley would have instilled a bigger turnover mentality. But we don't sit back like Spaz's schemes and wait but we don't strip many either. We need to have some things go our way and it starts this weekend.

Gambling Notes
-- Hafley is 2-1 in season openers
-- BC is 17-1 against the MAC all-time
-- Hafley is 16-19 against the spread 
The current line is BC-8.5

Factoid
This is the second time we have opened the season with Northern Illinois.

Scoreboard Watching
LSU vs Florida State. Normally I root for the ACC team under the rationale that it helps BC. But at this point what is Florida State doing for us. They don't want to be part of the conference. They think they belong with the big boys. Well let's see how they do. If they get spanked, I won't shed a tear.

I hope to see...
A dominant win. Openers can go a lot of different ways. For Hafley and this season, I think we need a statement game. Last year is over. BC is back. Don't make this interesting.

BC is in trouble if...
The offensive line is a mess. It should be improved over last year's disaster, but I don't view Applebaum as some sort of savior. The unit was fine when he was here the first time. At BC, the Oline can and should be great. 

Bottom Line 
I want to believe. The experts and the sports books have us as a .500ish team, but I think Hafley still has upside. I think this season is where it starts to turn the corner. BC wins comfortably and looks great on D. 
Final Score: BC 31, Northern Illinois 13

Hafley makes Staff official. Now what?

 

Jeff Hafley spoke to the media Friday with the start of Spring Practice and made his rumored staff official. He will now have two new first-time play callers, Duggan and Shimko supervised by two veterans in Hafley and Rob Chudzinski, respectively. Applebaum returns to Oline. Azaar gets a Co-Coodinator title and veteran Paul Rhoads joins the staff as a OLB coach. On paper it can work. There is a lot to like. Hafley said all the right things and seems to have the right energy and outlook coming off of a rough season. Will it work though?

I like the defensive moves. Hafley admitted the system is not changing much. He will be more involved and he thinks he has better depth. This is where I have faith. The unit was the least of our issues last year. I don't think we have enough elite talent yet and I think the scheme was a bit passive, but just an across the board, general improvement the changes should be enough to keep us in most games. Plus he added Rhoads, who should be a good sounding board and steadying hand. 

The offense requires a much bigger leap of faith. QB, OL and OC were issues last year. The QB position should be improved. The OLine should be better. We have depth, much more experience and a known entity for he position coach. I didn't think much of Applebaum but he was well liked at BC and while his two seasons at BC didn't produce dominant units, they weren't a mess either. That is a basic improvement. The biggest issue will be scheme and play calling. The best college offenses are not particularly complex. They out execute, they put very specific pressure on the opponents and they leverage their talent. BC didn't do any of that well. Chud knows how to run a good offense. Shimko shows promise. But will they get this team executing in an effective way by Game 1? I hope so. But both were part of last year's disaster (albeit in different roles). If they had he answers, why couldn't we save the sinking ship last year?

Despite coming off a terrible year, Hafley doesn't seem beaten. He seemed to use the offseason to assess everything and make the necessary changes (including adjusting his position on the portal). He has the right energy. I still believe. Let's hope he made the right moves and it all comes together. 

BC-Syracuse preview

Judging a team's mood on TV is admittedly some subjective B.S. but lots of people (including me) thought the BC team checked out and quit last week. It happens. This has been a long, frustrating and disappointing season. The final game won't erase the pain of the season but a win can smooth the edge a bit and give us all some hope heading into the offseason. We could really use a win Saturday.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
I don't know where Jeff Hafley is going to start with his offseason changes. It would seem that offense would be Step 1, but I think the injuries raise questions about Strength & Conditioning and the defense is not beyond reproach. But making wholesale changes becomes tricky when half your roster could easily transfer if the mood strikes them. It is so hard to make hires when the perception is that you are a sinking ship. Your choices are often unproven guys or ones that no one wants. I hope whatever he does, the hires are better than the changes he made last offseason.

Three Simple Keys
1. Win the first quarter. Every game we are seemingly in a double digit hole. We need to come out and start the game with some defensive stops.
2. Get Zay 10 touches. The Jet Sweeps and end arounds weren't great but let's try it early. The threat of it should open things up elsewhere on the field. 
3. Run the ball somehow. As much as I believe in Morehead, when we beat Dino's Syracuse teams, it is usually on the ground.

Gambling notes
-- Syracuse is 6-5 against the spread this year 
-- BC is 3-7 against the spread
-- Syracuse leads the series 32-22
The current line is BC+10.5

Factoid
Our last losing regular season also concluded with a game against Syracuse. Of course BC lost that one too. 

Scoreboard Watching
Michigan-Ohio State. I know I often talk about what could have been with regards to Ryan Day, but both Harbaughs had interest in BC when TOB left. A big West Coast booster pushed Gene to interview Jim (he didn't). But Gene did talk to John. 

I hope to see...
The Offensive Line look much better. It has been a well documented mess all year. They now have experience under fire. A solid effort on Saturday would be a small payoff for the misery we all endured this fall watching them look so lost all year.

BC is in trouble if...
Morehead struggles. Assuming we make offensive coaching changes, we will need a solid QB to build around. If things don't go well for Morehead Saturday, who knows what BC will do with the QB position and who knows if Morehead will stick around.

Bottom Line
This is probably more a wish than a prediction. There is very little to base this on. Call it a hunch. I think BC comes out fired up for the first time all year and takes advantage of some Cuse mistakes.
Final Score: BC 28, Syracuse 21

BC-Notre Dame preview

Younger BC fans have no idea what this game once met. Right or wrong, it was the biggest game of the season. Should it have been? I don't want to quibble. It doesn't really matter now. Two decades ago that passion and focus was a great tool for TOB. With the ACC move and the Irish moving off our annual schedule, the Notre Dame game doesn't mean as much. But I can tell you one thing: if we win, it will be huge...especially to the people who used to care so much about beating the Irish. 

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
A lot of BC fans are done with Hafley. That became pretty evident after the win last week. I don't begrudge those who lost faith. We've looked really bad throughout the year. I still believe, but it takes a lot of rationalizing. But what will it take for Hafley to win back our most passionate fans? I think Addazio showed it can't just be .500 football. If Hafley wants to show he learned and this year was just bad luck, he is going to need to have some big seasons in the next few years.

Three Simple Keys
1. Spread it around. We got multiple guys catching passes last weekend. We need to keep it up. Even throw it to the RBs if you can. It opens things up for big plays to Zay.
2. Protect the ball. BC overcame mistakes last week. Let's not have to overcome the same sorts of turnover issues this week.
3. Control the line on D. I don't expect us to do anything in the trenches on offense, however, we are to the point where the DLine is playing well enough (at times). If we are going to do it this weekend, we need to penetrate and contain. 

Gambling Notes
-- The Irish are 5-5 against the spread
-- BC is 3-7 against the spread
-- ND leads the series 16-9
The current line is BC+20.5

Factoid
We played this game the Saturday before Thanksgiving in 1993.

Scoreboard Watching
It is not a great weekend for ACC Football. The most relevant game for us is Syracuse-Wake. Root for Wake so that Syracuse enters our game shaken and discouraged. 

What I hope to see...
Another solid performance from Morehead. I don't like moral victories but do think building towards something next year is a positive way to end this season.

BC is in trouble if...
Morehead makes too many mistakes. Obviously it would be hard to beat the Irish, but a Morehead meltdown also puts a damper on my "building for next year" narrative.

Bottom Line
I think we will score on the Irish, but I don't know if we will get enough stops. I see us getting in a hole early...again. Battling back...again. But this time we don't do enough late.
Final Score: BC 21, Notre Dame 28

BC-NC State preview

The remainder of the season is all about Morehead. The kid looked good last week and we need him to continue to look good this week. Win or lose, Hafley needs a narrative to change the momentum around the fan base and with recruits. A win this weekend would be huge, but another solid Morehead performance would be a nice building block regardless of the final score. 

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game) 
Did you hear the student section reaction to any BC touchdown in the Beacon St. endzone? Or the passion the students showed during the Basketball opener? It is nice to see a spark. They have every reason to be apathetic. Many of the current students had a disrupted BC experience due to COVID. I hope they get a few memorable moments before the year is over. Like the Morehead discussion, it is no longer about this season. It is about building a better fan culture and experience long term.

Three Simple Keys
1. Air it out. Don't go too conservative. Let Morehead throw often and aggressively. Who cares if we are one-dimensional. We just need to score.
2. Change field positioning when you punt. If you keep giving the other team short fields, you have to question if punting is ever worth it.
3. Force turnover. NC State protects the ball. We have to change that and get a little lucky.

Gambling Notes
-- BC is 2-7 against the spread
-- NC State is 3-6 against the spread
-- BC leads the series 10-8
The current line is BC+19.5

Factoid
TOB was 3-5 in this series.

Scoreboard Watching
Clemson probably blew their shot at the playoff last week. Their only chance and the ACC's only hope is if they kill Louisville tomorrow, finish strong and a couple of other teams lose. 

What I hope to see...
Better tackling. We have many issues, but the missed tackles on key drives have been killer.

BC is trouble if...
If we allow a touchdown on the opening drive. We can't come out flat and uninterested again. 

Bottom Line
I am not feeling it. Last week had promising moments but still enough mistakes and questionable play to give me doubt that we've turned the corner. I expect this week to be the same. BC competes but ultimately loses.
Finale Score: NC State 30, BC 20

BC-Duke preview

You can debate where the UConn loss ranks among bad moments in BC Football, but it doesn’t really matter in a larger sense. Hafley will either bounce back from this and we will remember the game as a low-point, or we will keep losing for the next year and a half and just group this loss with a string of frustrating and embarrassing “L”s.

After every loss I get asked if I have officially lost faith in Hafley. I keep hedging a bit because I like the guy and there are aspects of his approach which I respect and support. But each loss makes the hole that much deeper. Hafley will get another year to fix things, but who knows if he can. He can go a long way towards building trust and faith with his boss, his recruits and BC fans by starting to compete and win now.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game) Nearly every time things go bad during a game the same litany of complaints kicks in about BC. I don’t need to rehash them or add new ones. I don’t think BC is perfect and do think there are plenty of flaws and problems. But what frustrates me is when complaints or problems in one area are cited as the source in another area. For example: when BC loses to UConn it is not due to Addazio or injuries or budgets or even Father Leahy. We had more talent and were favored and played like crap. That’s on the current coaches and players. I also don’t think our history limits our long-term potential. Nor does it guarantee that we won’t be terrible for decades. But as the churn at places like Nebraska or Texas or Miami shows, having the best recruiting or most money or best history doesn’t guarantee anything. You have to find the right coach for your program and then empower that coach to get the most out of his program. BC is clearly not doing that now, but we will have moments where it all comes together again. Will that be under Hafley? It is not looking like it, but someone will figure it out.

Three Simple Keys
1. Keep Leonard in the pocket. If he starts running, Duke’s offense starts rolling.
2. Protect the ball. If we are more careful with the ball we have wins over UConn and Rutgers.
3. Keep going deep to Zay. I can’t believe we don’t do it more. It is our only game changing option.

Gambling Notes -- BC is 1-7 against the spread
-- BC leads the series 5-3
-- Duke is 2-2 as favorites this season
The current line is BC+10

Factoid
Jeff Hafley’s first game and win was against Duke.

Scoreboard Watching
Wake-NC State could be telling. Wake fell apart last week and NC State has been typical NC State – good but not great. It is probably best for us if Wake comes out and kills the Wolfpack and sets their confidence back a bit.

What I hope to see…
Morehead play and play well. The QB situation is a mess. At this point why send Jurk out there less than 100%? Time off to heal his knee and confidence might help. Plus this gives the staff a little more time to see what they have in Morehead

BC is in trouble if…
They get down early. I have no faith in this team to fight through adversity.

Bottom Line Do you think we will win? I can’t talk myself into it. The level of play on Offense is so incompetent that I don’t know how we haven’t fired the entire offensive staff. I hope that they put things together this week and keep it close, but all the signs point towards another blowout.
Final Score: BC 10, Duke 27

BC-UConn preview

Go back to August when we were all doing our annual look ahead. Is there anyone who would have predicted that UConn would enter this game with more wins than BC? Yet here we are. An apologist could spin this a lot of ways. UConn's fight, after years of futility, is admirable. But let's be honest: BC can't lose this game. Even with our flaws, we have a significant talent advantage. If we can't bring this one home, then we have the wrong people in place. 

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)

Even though we've witnessed mediocre to bad football the past decade, it has all been relatively better than BC Basketball. Given how things are looking right now, it is probably safe to say basketball is going to have a better season than football. At a minimum it should be more fun than this year's football season. I don't know if the BC and Boston community will ever care about BC Basketball like they once did, but I encourage people to get on board. Grant is a likeable guy and his team last year played with an intensity that has been missing since the Skinner days. The expectations are growing and may be a bit premature, but I think we can expect this team to play competitive basketball all season and give us hope into March.

Three Simple Keys

1. Continue to use Jurk in the running game. It worked for a bit...until Wake adjusted. But making him a viable threat, makes UConn a little less aggressive and gives our OLine a little more time. 

2. Stop their run game. Like us, UConn's line and backfield are banged up. We need to make them one dimensional and stop the running game.

3. Mix up coverage. It is clear other teams are expecting man coverage on nearly every play. That is our base and our philosophy, so adding more wrinkles and different looks will create a few big plays or opportunities. 

Gambling Notes

-- BC leads the series 12-0-2

-- UConn is 6-22 all time vs the ACC

-- BC is 1-5 against the spread

The current line is BC-7.5

Factoid

UConn has not beaten an ACC in the 2020s. 

Scoreboard Watching

Syracuse-Notre Dame. Both are future opponents. Both would be big wins for BC. Notre Dame is trying to find itself. Syracuse is trying to bounce back from last week. This is a big game for both. 

What I hope to see...

Morehead take snaps during regulation because our lead is so big.

BC is in trouble if...

It comes down to late field goals. Our Special Teams are shaky as is. If it comes down to a late field goal, do you trust that we won't choke this game away?

Bottom Line

We will win this game. It might be a simple as we have Zay and they don't. If we are aggressive downfield and give him the ball in single coverage, we should jump start the scoring again. 

Final Score: BC 31, UConn, 13

BC-Wake Forest preview

Two steps forward, one face plant back. The first half of the Clemson game was a solid follow up to the Louisville win. But the same mistakes creeped in and we were overwhelmed again. Hafley seemingly took exception to Dabo running up the score, but at this point it is on Hafley to keep these games competitive. The season is not over, but the schedule is tough. Some of the teams we thought would be heavy favorites (NC State, ND) might not, while ‘Cuse looks to be having one of those years where it all works for them. Even UConn is showing more fight than I expected. BC remains on the tight rope. This season could still fall completely apart. Hafley’s goal should be to keep us moving and give everyone some signs of encouragement.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
In the post game discussion surrounding the Clemson game, there were plenty of Clemson critics of the BC Game Day experience. I won’t get into the alleged student harassment, but the basic complaints about our narrow public spaces, dated concessions, bad bathroom setup and staffing challenges are legitimate. Churning through Athletic Directors didn’t help since this remains a long-term project. I hope the intended stability of the Blake James hire speeds up the planned renovations to Alumni. It is well passed time to fix some of these issues.

Three Simple Keys
1. Jurk has to complete at least 55% of his passes. It is that simple. He needs to be smarter and more accurate. I keep telling myself it will click soon. The Line is only part of the issue.
2. Use an extra lineman. It worked early against Clemson but we went away from it. The extra protector gives us more time and can keep the run game relevant. What we lose in an extra skill player can be somewhat adjusted by the doubles Zay draws anyway.
3. Disrupt the mesh. Attacking the mesh is a pick your poison options, but our DBs are good enough that I have no problem being aggressive at the line to get in there before Wake can make their usual reads.

Gambling Notes
-- BC leads the series 14-12-2
-- Clawson is 4-3 vs BC
-- Wake is 5-1 against the spread
The current line is BC+20.5

Factoid
BC has a winning record in Winston-Salem.

Scoreboard Watching
Syracuse-Clemson. Is 'Cuse for real? I am in general a skeptic, but a win against Clemson would launch them into the Top 10.

I hope to see…
BC generate lots of turnovers. At this point we have to take more risks and get a little lucky. We have a defensive-minded coach. You would think we would be better ball hawks.

BC is in trouble if…
Wake covers. At this point it is not about hollow moral victories. Blowouts bother me more because it shows the staff can’t control games and most likely in this case, can’t generate points against a quality teams. It speaks to bigger issues about the season and how Hafley has to adjust in the offseason.

Bottom Line
I don’t think we are winning. I don’t think the season is over by any means, but I think Wake isn’t going to implode and make the mistakes we might. I think it has a similar pattern to other games where we come out strong, but they pull away in the second half.
Final Score: BC 20, Wake 35

BC-Clemson preview

The Red Bandana game morphed into a memorial and a marketing tool, which always makes this night a delicate balance of pride and tackiness. But it is still a great platform. Would ABC put this game on primetime if there wasn’t a great theme and story involved? Probably not. I remain onboard as long as the Crowther family does. I hope the game is exciting and BC uses its stage to celebrate Welles’ spirit, and to play with passion, and win.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
Last week, as part of a BC Marketing push, Jeff Hafley and some other BC coaches were in the Mods handing out t-shirts and reaching out to students. In one particular Mod, Hafley came across a “Fire Hafley” sign. He, nor BC, mentioned the incident, so I can only go with the Twitter accounts of what happened. Long story short, he took it in stride. I don’t know if he internalized the slight. I have no idea if it became motivation. No idea if it hurt. I can’t read minds. But I am encouraged that he didn’t make a big deal out of it (or at least didn’t do so in front of students). Some recent coaches would have flipped out. Even successful BC coaches like TOB and Jags were still very sensitive to criticism. Spaz and Addazio took thin-skinned to a new level. This is the first time that Hafley is facing real scrutiny and he seems to be managing it well. I don’t know if that signals long-term confidence or resignation that this won’t end well. But I give him credit for composure. In an ideal world I want a coach who doesn’t care what anyone thinks and doesn’t want to be bothered with student outreach. But if you do have a coach who wants to connect and wants to be involved, I appreciate that we have a coach who understands the criticism and occasional awkward moments come with the territory.

Three Simple Keys
1. Improve the Run Defense. The DLine looked better last week, but Louisville still ran the ball too easily. If we are going to pull off the upset, we need to force them to make mistakes through the air.
2. Keep spreading the ball around. It is so tempting to force things to Zay, but the other guys are stepping up and having some moments. If Zay is doubled, someone should have a good look elsewhere.
3. Make some defensive adjustments midgame. It was obvious to the TV audience and the entire stadium that Louisville was targeting Elijah Jones last week. I have a little more faith in Jones than the Cardinals did, but sometimes it happens that one guy will get picked on. My frustration was with BC’s defensive scheme as the game went on. Why not give him some help? Why not move him around? Why not get him off the field for a play or two? If the other team becomes that predictable, it is on our staff to adjust and take advantage of our knowledge.

Gambling Notes
-- Clemson has won 11 in a row against BC
-- BC is 1-4 against the spread this year
-- Clemson is 2-3 against the spread this year
The current line is BC+20.5

Factoid
The last BC coach to beat Clemson was Spaz.

Scoreboard Watching
The game I thought would be on ABC Saturday night – FSU-NC State – still remains relevant to us. After our game, I thought the ‘Noles were very good. Last week they took a step back. If they lose again, then our loss looks more and more like a missed opportunity.

What I hope to see...
More Jurk running. It wasn’t really part of the game plan last week. His one big gain was from a broken play. Sprinkling a few more keepers off of the read option will help the entire run package.

BC is in trouble if...
We don’t improve our redzone defense. The Defense has been asked to do a lot this year. It is not fair. However, if we are going to win, they need to take it to another level. When the Tigers get in the redzone, we need to force turnovers and field goals.

Bottom Line
This is not some double reverse-jinx to pick us to lose with the idea that it will put some magic karma in the air that we will win. I think we lose this weekend. Clemson is good, while we are still flawed. Is the game close and respectable? Yes. In fact, there is a bit of a moral victory feeling after that we can still get bowl eligible.
Final Score: Clemson 28, BC 24

Game Day Info: Louisville

Weather: It is going to be wet.

TV: The ACC Network

Radio: SiriusXM 193

BC-Louisville preview

The Jeff Hafley bandwagon is a lonely place right now. Can you blame his critics and doubters? Last week was a disaster. Florida State is good, but we were inept on Offense and wore down on Defense. I don't know where to start on Jurk. I drank the Kool-Aid, but I am not alone. He was on various watch lists and the Senior Bowl people were at the FSU game to scout him for their showcase game! This is a total regression that can't be pinned solely at the feet of the OLine. Phil deserves some heat, but Hafley should carry the brunt of it. The mismanagement of the Offensive Line in the offseason and the transition from Cig to McNulty's playbook and play calling has squandered some elite playmakers, set back a potential pro QB and put the D in huge holes. I trust Hafley to find and develop talent. He has done it before. But if he wants to stick around to coach this talent he has to make some tough and smart decisions now. He has to salvage any positivity and respectability he can out of this season. In the offseason he needs to figure out what his offense is and who he trusts to coach and execute that vision.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
As the games slip away, there is always someone on Twitter who says we never should have fired Addazio. I don't understand that logic. Even if you think Addazio is better than Hafley (I don't), he had seven years to show he was more than a .500 coach. He was never going to be anything more than that. BC athletes and the BC community deserve better than that. Will Hafley exceed Addazio's ceiling? I don't know. But if he can't then BC needs to move on again. Great programs move on from mediocre coaches.

Three Simple Keys

1. Establish the run early. Even if it feels Addazio-ish with run, run, pass, punt, I think BC needs to be stubborn and purposeful early. It will help the D, the Oline and even Jurk.

2. Get Jurk involved in the running game. This is sort of related to Key 1. Jurk can move. We run the read option, but he never keeps it. Having him run will move the chains and set up play action for him later in the game.

3. Allow fewer explosive plays. This means disciplined and smart tackling. 

Gambling Notes

-- Hafley is 0-4 against the spread this season

-- Louisville is 3-4 all time at Alumni

-- Louisville is 2-2 against the spread this year

The current line is BC+14.5

Factoid
This is BC's 141 regular season ACC game.

Scoreboard Watching
FSU-Wake Forest. I think we made FSU look better than they are. If they throttle Wake then we know they are actually "back."

What I hope to see...

A non offensive touchdown. I don't care how it comes: punt return, pick 6, scoop and score. I just would love to see something go our way and create some excitement. 

BC is in trouble if...

We go down early. Hafley even said so himself. Execution and talent are the biggest issues right now, but the mental aspect of this all is also part of the problem. We have zero confidence and show little fight. If we get down early, I think this team could be in for another beat down.

Bottom Line
This is a bad time in a coaching tenure. I can't even talk myself into a win. I want it. I want to believe. I still like Hafley. But I have little faith in the offense being able to manufacture enough points to win the game.
Final Score: BC 17, Louisville 27

Game Day Info: Florida State

Weather: It will be hot in the 80s.

Radio: SiriusXM 386

TV: The ACC Network

BC-Florida State preview

Fan debates and discussion all drive towards the extreme. There are those who believe BC will never win another game again…ever. And those who think we are one move, play, player, a bit of luck away from greatness. When we step back and take a breath, the reality is probably the somewhere in the middle. (Where in the middle is another debate.) I still have hope for Hafley but until he gets an overwhelming talent advantage at BC, he is going to have to get better at the week-to-week, game-to-game aspect of managing the season. This Florida State team has a talent advantage. But they are not all that far removed from chaos and disappointment themselves. Prior to the season, Norvell was on everyone’s Hot Seat list. The best BC teams of the past would go into this game with quiet confidence, hang around and watch the Seminoles imploded. I don’t know if we are there yet. But if Hafley does show some ability to course correct midseason, that will be a great sign for this game and the weeks ahead.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
Despite the disappointing start, Hafley and company still have recruiting momentum. This is a good sign for the future, but also is a good sign for the present. One of the most overlooked aspects of recruiting is how the current players sell the program and staff to visitors. Once a coach loses the locker room, you can start to see it with comments from potential recruits. Even though we are frustrated, it seems like the players still believe.

Three Simple Keys
1. Win the turnover margin. This means Jurk is making good decisions and the D is being opportunistic.
2. Get Takacs involved early. Short, quick passes will hopefully help Jurk get in a groove.
3. Incremental improvement on the Oline. Florida State has some depth issues in their front seven. If we can minimize mistakes and get to the second level, we might break some big runs.

Gambling Notes
-- BC is 0-3 against the spread this year
-- Florida State is 2-1 against the spread
-- BC is 1-5 against the spread in their last six games vs Florida State
The current line is BC+17.5

Factoid
BC last won in Tallahassee in 2008. (This was such a fun game and fun season. Good back and read the recap.)

Scoreboard Watching
Clemson-Wake has huge implications for the ACC race. It is the biggest test either team has faced so far. I still think this might be one of those seasons where it all comes together for Wake. If so, they need to win this weekend.

What I hope to see…
The young running backs get touches. They provided a clear spark and nice change of pace last week. This is a little different than Maine, but I am all for giving the young guys a shot. You never know who will surprise

BC is in trouble if…
Jurk is out of rhythm and forcing things. If we are going to win, he needs to be the best quarterback in the stadium.

Bottom Line 
I want to believe...so I will keep pushing that rock up the hill hoping that things click this Saturday. With that in mind, Jurk looks better than he has all season and the BC offense explodes against a real team and avoids giving the ‘Noles a short field. The BC D also looks sturdier.
Final Score: BC 35, FSU 27