BC-Florida State preview

Fan debates and discussion all drive towards the extreme. There are those who believe BC will never win another game again…ever. And those who think we are one move, play, player, a bit of luck away from greatness. When we step back and take a breath, the reality is probably the somewhere in the middle. (Where in the middle is another debate.) I still have hope for Hafley but until he gets an overwhelming talent advantage at BC, he is going to have to get better at the week-to-week, game-to-game aspect of managing the season. This Florida State team has a talent advantage. But they are not all that far removed from chaos and disappointment themselves. Prior to the season, Norvell was on everyone’s Hot Seat list. The best BC teams of the past would go into this game with quiet confidence, hang around and watch the Seminoles imploded. I don’t know if we are there yet. But if Hafley does show some ability to course correct midseason, that will be a great sign for this game and the weeks ahead.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
Despite the disappointing start, Hafley and company still have recruiting momentum. This is a good sign for the future, but also is a good sign for the present. One of the most overlooked aspects of recruiting is how the current players sell the program and staff to visitors. Once a coach loses the locker room, you can start to see it with comments from potential recruits. Even though we are frustrated, it seems like the players still believe.

Three Simple Keys
1. Win the turnover margin. This means Jurk is making good decisions and the D is being opportunistic.
2. Get Takacs involved early. Short, quick passes will hopefully help Jurk get in a groove.
3. Incremental improvement on the Oline. Florida State has some depth issues in their front seven. If we can minimize mistakes and get to the second level, we might break some big runs.

Gambling Notes
-- BC is 0-3 against the spread this year
-- Florida State is 2-1 against the spread
-- BC is 1-5 against the spread in their last six games vs Florida State
The current line is BC+17.5

Factoid
BC last won in Tallahassee in 2008. (This was such a fun game and fun season. Good back and read the recap.)

Scoreboard Watching
Clemson-Wake has huge implications for the ACC race. It is the biggest test either team has faced so far. I still think this might be one of those seasons where it all comes together for Wake. If so, they need to win this weekend.

What I hope to see…
The young running backs get touches. They provided a clear spark and nice change of pace last week. This is a little different than Maine, but I am all for giving the young guys a shot. You never know who will surprise

BC is in trouble if…
Jurk is out of rhythm and forcing things. If we are going to win, he needs to be the best quarterback in the stadium.

Bottom Line 
I want to believe...so I will keep pushing that rock up the hill hoping that things click this Saturday. With that in mind, Jurk looks better than he has all season and the BC offense explodes against a real team and avoids giving the ‘Noles a short field. The BC D also looks sturdier.
Final Score: BC 35, FSU 27

All Addazio's issues on display in loss to FSU

In the postgame handshake, FSU's interim Head Coach Odell Haggins could be seen and heard repeatedly telling Addazio that he "is a hellavu coach!" I can see why an old school coach would appreciate Addazio. His teams play a style that nearly all current coaches grew up playing. He is a grinder. He wears his emotion on his sleeve. And if you only pay attention to BC as you prep for the game, you might appreciate all Addazio does vs all the problems his team consistently has. For those of us who have watched Addazio up close for seven years, this game was just a microcosm of our frustrations with BC's coach.

The D is bad and not getting better. The defensive issues are talent and scheme. BC missed two field goals too. While that is beyond frustrating, Addazio's approach and management of the game related to our kicking woes was moronic. Field goals are not as valuable as perceived in general in football. Addazio should know that. There have been millions of statistical studies to confirm that. Second, field goals are historically high risk for his teams. Finally he has one of the best olines in the country. Nearly any drive in field goal territory should be considered four-down territory. Third and long? Run the ball and get it to fourth and short. Fourth and short. Run again. Even without a 100% success rate, that model will pay off more than us kicking bad field goals. 

Addazio really blew it at the end of the half when he didn't use his timeouts and purposely settled for a field goal attempt...which BC missed. 

I already want a coaching change. This loss might move a few more fans towards my opinion. We've seen everything we need to know. He is an okay head coach but so limited in his approach that he will never get BC to somewhere special. His floor and his ceiling are the same. 

The season is not over. I still think we can beat Pitt and get to a bowl. Addazio is the Houdini of the Hot Seat, so maybe he pulls off a huge upset of Notre Dame in two weeks. But it doesn't matter. He clearly is what he is and we've all seen enough.

BC-FSU preview

Ideally if you were facing a broken team with an interim coach, you would want a big powerful offensive line to just run all over the checked out opponent.  Just keep things simple and break their already broken spirit. Conversely if you were a team with an interim coach and nothing to lose, you would want your one asset to be an aggressive offense with a few home run hitters who can keep you in the game and make the other team nervous. That is sort of the matchup this week. Both teams think they have a chance. It would have been much easier to guess the outcome of this game if Florida State had not fired Taggart this week. Instead we get a situation where anything can happen.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
Aside from being the "Red Bandana" game, this is also Senior Day. It feels a bit weird that this is our last home game of the year, but I guess it is better than trying to have late November home games. With those dates, students are either leaving or gone if it is too close to Thanksgiving. It is just a shame that now with the ACC and Notre Dame TV deals our schedule tends to be very frontloaded in September.

Three Simple Keys
1. Safety help. By design Florida State likes to go deep on offense. When they see tape of our breakdowns, they will be even more tempted. Our Safeties need to help out and play smart, especially on deep balls.
2. Stick with the run, even if we get down early. I admire how BC handled the Syracuse game. Even when a few things didn't go our way early, they kept with the run. The same things could happen this weekend. BC needs to know that staying with the run will payoff.
3. Get Flowers more touches. Even simple jet sweeps will compliment the entire playbook.

Gambling Notes
-- The home team has won the last three games in this series.
-- BC is 5-12 vs Florida State
-- Addazio is 3-3 on Senior Day
The current line is BC-2.5

Factoid 
Odell Haggins is 2-0 as an interim coach.

Scoreboard Watching
If you haven't noticed, nearly all the ACC is around .500. That is not good news for us in the bowl pecking order. What we need are some teams who will get selected before us to get eliminated. It would start with Georgia Tech, who take on Virginia. Also see how NC State and Duke do against opponents looking to put up big scores (Clemson and Notre Dame, respectively).

I hope to see...
BC pull away in the first half. At this point, nothing will change how I feel about Addazio, but another blow out win does take away a bit of the sting of our bad losses this year. It helps change perception of BC around College Football.

BC is in trouble if...
FSU confuses Grosel. Our OLine is too good and won't allow him to take a beating. So it is really up to FSU to give him a lot of looks and potentially make mistakes.

Bottom Line
FSU is a bad team and poorly coached. Under most circumstances I think we win with ease. However the coaching change is a wild card. I think (and hope) BC plays smart and well and runs away with the game.
Final Score: BC 35, FSU 20

BC can't put FSU away and loses heartbreaker

I know Steve Addazio knows more about football than I do. There are nuances that I am probably oblivious to and I know the time commitment of his job is unfathomable. He is able to lead a staff and roster of more than 100 people. He is also able to find and recruit teenagers. But I think he, like many coaches, can get so caught up in the flow of the game or his cognitive biases (whether it is play calling, clock, player usage, etc.) that he limits what his talented roster can do. If you play too conservatively and play to keep it close, you are going to invite the other team to steal a game. We saw it with TOB and Spaz. And it has happened to Addazio often. Tonight's loss to FSU might be the most frustrating. 

Brown didn't play well and I put much of that on the staff. If he wasn't 100%, then maybe you go with Perry. Or you put a gameplan around Brown that would help his return. Even the D, which had some really good moments, also didn't adjust enough. 

7-6 is looming. I pray that Addazio can avoid it. I want to be more than that. I think he can still do something more, but I know he will never put together that truly special season. 

BC-Florida State preview

Regardless of how we did last week or who we played this week, everything was going to feel like a comedown after Gameday and Clemson. We've seen it before with even more talented and consistent BC teams. That means it is up to Addazio to push the right buttons and make sure that they build off of last week and not let the season slip away.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
Now that we are eliminated from the Division title, I don't know how Addazio or BC fans will define a successful season. Is it about ending the season ranked? Is it about winning a bowl game? I don't know. Personally, I want to see BC win the last two games and then win the bowl game. This is Year 6. We need more than just ho-hum finish.

Three Simple Keys
1. Sack Francois five times or more. FSU's OLine might be the worst in the conference. There is no reason we shouldn't bring a lot of pressure.
2. Use plenty of zone reads. Regardless of the BC QB, this is a simple play that should move the chains and open up other things.
3. Get explosive plays. I don't trust either QB to methodically work the ball down the field. We need someone -- maybe Smith or Dillon -- to break some big plays.

Gambling Notes
-- Addazio 0-2 at Doak
-- Addazio is 16-15 after a loss
-- Taggart is 2-19 vs ranked teams
The current line is BC-1.5

Factoid
This is the first time since 2014 that we've played Florida State on a Saturday.

Scoreboard Watching
The most relevant game for BC fans is the Notre Dame-Syracuse matchup. I don't know what to expect out of Syracuse next week. They haven't been great on the road this year and the weather will be an issue.

I hope to see...
Big plays from our WRs. We are targeting the TEs and RBs more in the passing game. I would like to see some more strikes to our WRs, who I believe have upside and can make plays against this FSU team.

BC is in trouble if...
Brown doesn't play. I know Perry is prepared. I know everyone believes in him. I know that he had flashes last Saturday. I just fear that if he plays Addazio will be so conservative it will be impossible for BC to win.

Overall
FSU is really bad. Even if we struggle on offense, their Offense is worse and their D is not great. I think we grind them down with the run game and pull away in the second half.
Final Score: BC 28, FSU 13

Basseball loses tight game against FSU

A fly ball to right ends the game and Florida State wins, 13-12 in 11 innings#Birdball

— BC Baseball (@BCBirdBall) April 21, 2018