Addazio vs BC's actual history

Addazio referenced winning historically at BC and mentioned 6.5 wins per year since 1980. That's a misleading stat since the college football season has expanded gradually from 11 games, to 11 plus regular bowls, to 12 plus regular bowls. In my opinion, it is probably better to measure Addazio's body of work using winning percentage. Right now he sits at .500. And to me that feels like the sort of coach he is. But I feel like BC can be more and that history is not told through 6.5 wins per year, but through what a variety of coaches have done at the school under varied circumstances. Take a look:

Winning Percentage
Boston College All-Time: .560

Boston College Since DIA-DIAA Split: .538

Boston College Since joining a conference: .557

Boston College Since joining ACC: .547

Addazio: .500

Winning Percentage by Coach
Frank Leahy: 909
Jeff Jagodzinski: .714
Joseph Yukica: .648
Gilmour Dobie: .639
Tom O'Brien: .625
Frank Cavanaugh: .625
Mike Holovak: .623
Tom Coughlin: .614
Jim Miller: .586
Denny Myers: .561
Jack Bicknell: .517
Steve Addazio: .500
Moody Sarno: .500
Dan Henning: .458
Frank Spaziani: .431
Ernest Hefferle: .375
Ed Chlebek: .364

Conference Winning Percentage
Jagodzinski (ACC): .687

O'Brien (ACC): .625

Coughlin (Big East): .559

O'Brien (total): .521

O'Brien (Big East): .490
Henning (Big East): 452
Spaziani (ACC): .406
Addazio (ACC): .375

Winning Seasons
Yukica: 9
O'Brien: 8
Holovak: 7
Addazio: 5
Bicknell: 4

Miller: 4

Spaziani:2
Jagodzinski: 2
Coughlin: 2
Henning: 1

Checking in on the coaching class of 2013

With Colorado making a change, the list of coaches hired in the 2013 cycle still with their team is that much smaller. Here is the latest.

Left for a new job
Gary Andersen, Wisconsin -- left for Oregon State
P.J. Fleck, Western Michigan -- left for Minnesota

Bryan Harsin, Arkansas State -- left for Boise State

Todd Monken, Southern Miss -- left for assistant job with Tampa Bay
Bobby Petrino, Western Kentucky -- left for Louisville
Matt Rhule, Temple -- left for Baylor

Willie Taggart, South Florida -- left for Oregon

Hanging in there
Steve Addazio, Boston College
Rod Carey, Northern Illinois
Dave Doeren, NC State
Skip Holtz, Louisiana Tech
Kliff Kingsbury, Texas Tech
Gus Malzahn, Auburn

Mark Stoops, Kentucky

Matt Wells, Utah State

Fired
Bret Bielema, Arkansas -- fired in 2017
Ron Caragher, San Jose State -- fired in 2016

Sonny Dykes, California -- fired in 2016

Darrell Hazell, Purdue -- fired in 2016

Paul Haynes, Kent State -- fired in 2017

Mark Helfrich, Oregon -- fired in 2016

Butch Jones, Tennessee -- fired in 2017

Sean Kugler, UTEP -- fired in 2017

Mike MacIntyre, Colorado -- fired in 2018

Trent Miles, Georgia State -- fired in 2016
Brian Polian, Nevada -- fired in 2016

Scott Shafer, Syracuse -- fired in 2015

Tommy Tuberville, Cincinnati -- resigned/fired in 2016

Ron Turner, FIU -- fired in 2016

I don't know what conclusions you want to draw. I look at Addazio's continued employment as affirmation that BC is a good job, where you can win, and the fans and administration have patience.

Addazio hasn't learned

Bucking conventional wisdom in sports takes time, even for those on the inside who stand to benefit the most. (Just look at baseball's reaction to the Moneyball movement.) Yet you would think that once you've had first-hand experience doing something you would learn and adapt. Addazio for some reason isn't learning. He's been burned multiple times by allowing an opponent to march down the field to win the game. Knowing how often it has happened and can happen, he should place a priority on not giving up the ball in a close game. Instead, he put a value on giving the opponent extra yardage. But his own time as a head coach has shown how little extra yardage means. Take a look:

2013 vs Syracuse. Cuse drives 75 yards with less than 2:08 to win the game.

2014 vs Colorado State. Rams drive 90 yards with 4:00 left to win the game

2014 vs Florida State. Noles drive 66 yards with 4:34 left to win the game with a FG

2014 vs Penn State. PSU drives 76 yards with 1:55 left to force OT (which they would win)

2015 vs Syracuse. Orange drive 69 yards with 2:42 left to kick winning FG. 

2016 vs Georgia Tech.  Jackets drive 59 yards with 3:33 left to win the game.

Basically, once he gives up the ball, the D will either stop them or they won't. The difference in the extra 20 yards is negligible. Look at the Pro Football Reference stat. 

(1/2) According to Pro Football Reference, on the FSU 40 with 2:52 to go, fourth-and-one, @BCFootball had a 87.21% chance to win the game.

How win probability changes based on the fourth down result:

CONVERT: 96.61%

FAIL: 73.56%

PUNT: 80.94%

— Ben Thomas (@ben_heights) November 18, 2018

The difference between punting and getting stuffed on 4th down is minor. Convert at all costs and the game is yours. Look at the win probability graph. It was creeping towards BC and once they gave the ball back it dipped. The lesson Addazio should take from this is not give it back.



But he hasn't learned and there doesn't seem to be anyone around to enlighten him so I assume we will see this same mistake again.

BC can't put FSU away and loses heartbreaker

I know Steve Addazio knows more about football than I do. There are nuances that I am probably oblivious to and I know the time commitment of his job is unfathomable. He is able to lead a staff and roster of more than 100 people. He is also able to find and recruit teenagers. But I think he, like many coaches, can get so caught up in the flow of the game or his cognitive biases (whether it is play calling, clock, player usage, etc.) that he limits what his talented roster can do. If you play too conservatively and play to keep it close, you are going to invite the other team to steal a game. We saw it with TOB and Spaz. And it has happened to Addazio often. Tonight's loss to FSU might be the most frustrating. 

Brown didn't play well and I put much of that on the staff. If he wasn't 100%, then maybe you go with Perry. Or you put a gameplan around Brown that would help his return. Even the D, which had some really good moments, also didn't adjust enough. 

7-6 is looming. I pray that Addazio can avoid it. I want to be more than that. I think he can still do something more, but I know he will never put together that truly special season. 

How does Addazio do as a big underdog

The spread for the BC-Clemson game opened at BC+17.5 and seems to have moved to +18. While big, the point spread is a bit encouraging. It was worse against Clemson just last year. Here are all the times Addazio was a big underdog while at BC and the final results.

2017. +34 at Clemson.
Final Score: Clemson 34, BC 7

2016. +25 vs Louisville.
Final Score: Louisville 52, BC 7

2013. +24 at Clemson.
Final Score: Clemson 24, BC 14

2013. +23 vs Florida State.
Final Score: FSU 48, BC 34

2017. +21 at Louisville.
Final Score: BC 45, Louisville 42

2016. +20 at Florida State.
Final Score: FSU 45, BC 7

2014. +17 vs USC.
Final Score: BC 37, USC 31

2014. +17 at Florida State.
Final Score: FSU 20, BC 17

2015. +17 at Clemson.
Final Score: Clemson 34, BC 17

2016. +17 vs Clemson.
Final Score: Clemson 56, BC 10

2017. +16 vs Virginia Tech.
Final Score: Virginia Tech 21, BC 10

2016. +15 at NC State.
Final Score: BC 21, NC State 14

2016. +15 vs Notre Dame.
Final Score: Notre Dame 19, BC 16

As a two TD or more underdog, Addazio holds his own. Against the spread in these games he is 9-3-1. In true W-L, he is 3-10, which isn't bad for a big underdog.

Addazio's post game thoughts

This is BC's best start since 2007 and Addazio seems pretty happy with his team. He like the chemistry and liked how they responded to some adversity. If you read into Addazio's reactions, he thinks this team is very good.

Season Prediction Part III: what will happen

Addazio has said we have one of the best Olines in the country. He also made similar statements about our RBs and TEs. That alone should mean a Top 25 season. Yet I have my doubts. I don't know if I trust him to navigate and push the right buttons during the season. I know we exploded during the second half of last year and we rallied in 2016. But why does it come to that every year? Can he avoid it this year? This is how I see it playing out.

(This will serve as my actual predictions for the year.)

UMass. Win. Whipple has improved things but they are still terrible. I don't think this will be close.

Holy Cross. Win. Addazio might complain about the schedule, but he was gifted two cupcakes to start the season.

at Wake Forest. Win. I don't think this will be pretty, but I still think BC has enough of a talent advantage to win this game during a short week.

at Purdue. Loss. I see this as a shootout. Even if Dillon goes off -- which I think he will against them -- I still think Purdue will answer. It is a road game against a rising team. I just see something not going our way.

Temple. Win. Another game BC should win without a problem.

at NC State. Win. Another tough road game, but I like how our D matches up against their O. I see this as relatively low scoring and BC running out the clock late.

Louisville. Loss. I think this will feel a lot like the Purdue game, where we lose a game where both teams score in the 30s.

Miami. Loss. As I've mentioned in the best and worst case, this game will be hyped to the heavens. I also see it as another close loss. Dillon can only do so much.

at Virginia Tech. Loss. The worst game of the season. The only game where BC is not competitive.

Clemson. Loss. At this point Clemson is playing with a lot of confidence and BC is dinged up.

at Florida State. Win. The late season Addazio "stop the bleeding" game. I don't think FSU will be very good this year and I think we can pound them down.

Syracuse. Win. I expect Syracuse to be bad this year and I think it remains a good matchup for us.

This would leave BC as 7-5 (4-4) in the ACC. No major bowls for us, so we play in the Military Bowl against Navy (an unofficial home game for them). It will be an ugly struggle like our last bowl against the Midshipmen, but BC wins.

Addazio finishes with his first eight win season at BC, but it feels like a letdown.

Season Prediction Part II: best case scenario

This is the most talented BC team in a decade. We have elite players on both sides of the ball. Our bruising running game and enormous OLine provide a matchup problem for every team we face. It should be our year. It could be our year. If everything goes right and Addazio doesn't get in the way, this could be special. If it is special, this is how I see it play out.

(My official predictions are coming Wednesday.)

UMass. Win. Total romp. Not even interesting. The backups play most of the second half.

Holy Cross. Win. The only thing interesting about this game is the renewal of the old rivalry. The game is terrible as BC cruises.

at Wake Forest. Win. Suspensions mean we catch them at the right time. BC starts 3-0 and is finally ranked.

at Purdue. Win. A potential trap avoided. BC grinds it out and Dillon has a big day to spark Heisman talk.

Temple. Win. BC keeps moving up in the polls. The passing game is also clicking and BC is scoring in bunches.

at NC State. Win. The D leads the way with lots of sacks and turnovers. BC starts 6-0 and is now in the Top 10.

Louisville. Win. A close game, but like last year, Dillon breaks a few big ones to get the win.

Miami. Win. Miami comes in ranked too. The game is a huge deal (Friday night, ESPN, Red Bandanna). BC runs over the shellshocked 'Canes. Campus is crazy. Playoff talk starting.

at Virginia Tech. Loss. The bubble bursts as it has so many times in Blacksburg. A few mistakes on the road and BC can't recover.

Clemson. Loss. Another wild game at Alumni that ends with a narrow loss. BC is barely in the Top 25.

at Florida State. Win. BC rights the ship and uses the ground game to control and ultimately win.

Syracuse. Win. The Orange are checked out. BC cruises.

BC finished 10-2 (6-2 in the ACC). Not good enough to get into the ACC Championship game and not good enough to get an at-large in the major bowls.

I think BC gets an invite back to Orlando for the Camping World Bowl vs Oklahoma State. I think we win that matchup and finish 11-2 and in the Top 15. Addazio silences all his critics...including this one.

Season Prediction Part I: worst case scenario

Here we go again. My little preseason exercise in "what if?" There are lots of reasons to be optimistic this year, but we know things can fall apart quickly. So here is how the season might play out if nothing goes our way. Tuesday will be the what the perfect season would look like and Wednesday will be my actual predictions for the year.

UMass. Win. Brown looks rusty, but BC still runs all day on UMass.

Holy Cross. Win. Another sloppy game, but BC has enough talent to cruise.

at Wake Forest. Loss. A short week leads to major confusion. Brown still struggles and Wake loads up to stop Dillon.

at Purdue. Loss. BC can't keep up in a shootout. Suddenly the preseason hype starts turning to hot seat talk.

Temple. Win. Another game that is much closer than it should be. The Offense continues to look one dimensional, but the BC D carries the team.

at NC State. Loss. BC doesn't give up the big play and hangs for a while, but NCSU chips away on offense, controls the clock and the game.

Louisville. Loss. A game BC should win but doesn't. There are some mistakes and now a winless ACC schedule starts to seem possible.

Miami. Loss. It is a national TV and red bandanna game. BC is hyped and it is close. But mistakes hurt BC again and the passing game remains one of the worst in college football.

at Virginia Tech. Loss. Another high scoring offense pulls away from BC.

Clemson. Loss. BC plays well, but can't hold back Clemson.

at Florida State. Loss. Another ugly game. The narrative continues that BC is "playing better" but just unlucky.

Syracuse.  Win. Senior Day and a positive way to end a bad season.

This would leave BC at 4-8 and home for the bowl season. In my opinion it would also be time to make a head coaching change.

A gambler who believes in BC

This is random, but I came across this interview with ESPN's Ian Fitzsimmons. In it he talks about gambling on the upcoming College Football season and early bets. It can be your typical radio appearance until he gets to BC [BC talk starts at 6:50]. He loves BC and thinks we can win eight or nine. Get on the bandwagon now folks.

Disagreeing with Herald's Players to Watch list

The Herald put up a pretty innocuous five Players to Watch article and it got me thinking. Their list might be the best five but they are all the established, veteran guys. We know what to expect from that group. What I find more interesting are the players who might emerge or breakout. With that here are my three players to watch. These guys will really determine the season.

1. Anthony Brown. His health and ability to pass are the most important unknowns heading into the season.
2. Ray Smith. We are young and thin at DT. Smith needs to play well and play a lot.
3. Colton Lichtenberg. It always comes down to the kicker with Daz. If this is the year we finally break seven wins, it will be critical that Colton kick well from the start.

Final scrimmage complete

Addazio wrapped up his final scrimmage and the team will now start prepping for UMass. In the video below, he doesn't seem that excited, but the reports on the scrimmage were positive. Brown looked good and Dillon shined in limited action. Both backup QBs played well and the penalties were less of an issue. To an outsider, that all seems like good news. Maybe Addazio is just trying to contain expectations. Or maybe he also knows scrimmages don't matter -- UMass does.

Addazio not thrilled with 2nd scrimmage

BC provided some notes on Saturday's scrimmage without providing much info. Brown took his first live snaps and Dillon sat out. That's the only concrete news.

Steve Addazio provided more of the real reaction out of the scrimmage. He didn't like it. You can see below, but it seems like neither side was crisp and there was plenty of confusion...and lethargy. When prompted to discuss the QBs, he said none were that great. We know from the write ups, that the D controlled, but Addazio doesn't really give them credit either.

It is nothing to get worked up about. It is only an intra squad scrimmage. This is about working out the kinks so that the opener is crisp.

Viral tweet shows what's right and still wrong

Did you see this Monday?

4/5-star recruits over the past 5 years…
Texas - 60
Boston Coll - 4

Record over the past 5 years…
Texas - 31-32
BC - 31-33

NFL Draft picks past 5 years:
Texas - 11
BC - 14

— Hidden Agenda Generator (@DavidHaleESPN) August 13, 2018

It got a decent amount of attention and led to many people complimenting Addazio on his talent identification and development. He does deserve credit and it has been one of the things he's delivered on. But the tweet is a backhanded compliment since it also points out that despite the influx of talent, BC's record under Addazio is still under .500. He's building a pipeline that develops talent at a better rate than Texas -- at a private school in Boston -- yet is not winning at a high rate. If Addazio doesn't break through his ceiling soon, most of this will be for naught. Talent is primary and should win out in most cases. If you have talent and are not winning then you have to question how your coaches are managing the talent when it counts.

Time for the McDonald bandwagon?

BC held its first scrimmage of the preseason. They didn't provide specific individual stats, but based on the write up and interviews, it seems to have gone well. Addazio voiced plenty of frustration about penalties, but other than that, seemed to like the effort.

He also responded to a question about backup QB Matt McDonald and said he was one of the most accurate quarterbacks he's ever been around. This follows other write ups about McDonald's surprising and efficient play. So I ask, is it time to start the McDonald bandwagon? I like Brown and I am encouraged that he's doing better, but all this team really needs is a guy who can make good throws. With everyone trying to stop the run, receiving matchups and short throws will be open. Maybe McDonald is the guy to hit those throws and lead an offensive explosion. Even if Brown is healthy, I hope we see McDonald is some mop up duty and he turns these practice moments into real wins.

Reaction to 2018 Football schedule

BC and the ACC released the 2018 Football schedules Wednesday. Here is BC's:

September 1 -- UMass
September 8 -- Holy Cross
September 13 -- at Wake Forest (Thursday night game)
September 22 -- at Purdue
September 29 -- Temple
October 6 --  at NC State
October 13 -- Louisville
October 26 -- Miami (Friday night game)
November 3 -- at Virginia Tech
November 10 -- Clemson
November 17 -- at Florida State
November 24 -- Syracuse

While we have known the opponents for months, this is the first time we are seeing the order. Here are my initial thoughts.

1. Addazio can't plan for a late-season run again. The past two years have seen BC stumble in September and early October, only to rally towards bowl eligibility during the latter parts of the season. I don't think he will have that much wiggle room this year. BC closes with Louisville, Miami, VT, Clemson, FSU and Cuse. Even though BC beat FSU and Lousville this year and even if you assume Miami takes a slight step back, that is a tough, tough stretch of games. If BC truly has ambitions of being a Top 25 team, they need to go at least 3-3 during that stretch.

2. The bye week is well placed. BC gets their bye right in middle of October and before the Friday night game against Miami. I know they don't have control over that, but it did work out. Hopefully the rest will help with injuries and the team gets plenty of time to prep for Miami.

3. Year 6 will really depend on the Wake-Purdue weeks. Although Addazio keeps pushing back the timeline a bit with regards to when the program will be "ready," there are no excuse in Year 6. This team should be a Top 25 squad and the schedule comes with three wins baked in (UMass, Holy Cross, and Temple). The difference between a Top 25 season and another middling 7-6 effort will really come down to back-to-back road games against Wake and Purdue. Both were surprise teams in 2017 and both will probably be tough wins in 2018. But BC should have more talent than both next year. It is up to Addazio to harness that talent and come away with two wins. If he doesn't, we'll be praying for 7-6 again.