Season Prediction Part I: worst case scenario

Here we go again. My little preseason exercise in "what if?" There are lots of reasons to be optimistic this year, but we know things can fall apart quickly. So here is how the season might play out if nothing goes our way. Tuesday will be the what the perfect season would look like and Wednesday will be my actual predictions for the year.

UMass. Win. Brown looks rusty, but BC still runs all day on UMass.

Holy Cross. Win. Another sloppy game, but BC has enough talent to cruise.

at Wake Forest. Loss. A short week leads to major confusion. Brown still struggles and Wake loads up to stop Dillon.

at Purdue. Loss. BC can't keep up in a shootout. Suddenly the preseason hype starts turning to hot seat talk.

Temple. Win. Another game that is much closer than it should be. The Offense continues to look one dimensional, but the BC D carries the team.

at NC State. Loss. BC doesn't give up the big play and hangs for a while, but NCSU chips away on offense, controls the clock and the game.

Louisville. Loss. A game BC should win but doesn't. There are some mistakes and now a winless ACC schedule starts to seem possible.

Miami. Loss. It is a national TV and red bandanna game. BC is hyped and it is close. But mistakes hurt BC again and the passing game remains one of the worst in college football.

at Virginia Tech. Loss. Another high scoring offense pulls away from BC.

Clemson. Loss. BC plays well, but can't hold back Clemson.

at Florida State. Loss. Another ugly game. The narrative continues that BC is "playing better" but just unlucky.

Syracuse.  Win. Senior Day and a positive way to end a bad season.

This would leave BC at 4-8 and home for the bowl season. In my opinion it would also be time to make a head coaching change.

Season Prediction Part I: worst case scenario

Here we go! Time for my annual tradition of forecasting BC's ceiling, basement and what will probably happen. As always, I start with the worst case scenario. This season is Addazio's 5th year. It is the one he has been pointing to since the day he arrived. If everything falls apart now -- at a time when it is should be turning the corner -- then the guy is done at BC. I don't think the following will happen, but this is how it could go bad.

As a reminder, this is not what I think will happen. This is more of a "what if." My real prediction will come later in the week.

at Northern Illinois. Loss. Both QBs play and both look bad. The Offense is stagnant and the D allows a few big plays.

Wake Forest. Loss. Another low scoring Defensive game. But BC's D is not what it was a few years ago. An 0-2 start basically ends Addazio's career with the BC fanbase. Lame ducks status depends on his new boss.

Notre Dame. Loss. BC comes out fired up and the fans show some signs of life. But it is not enough as the OL is a problem.

at Clemson. Loss. Another loss, but like ND, it is a close game so apologists have plenty of rah rah nonsense to spin the record.

Central Michigan. Win. The first W provides a little relief. The D plays well and BC gets a few big plays from the Offense.

Virginia Tech. Loss.  BC drops another close game. The team looks more cohesive since the opener, but their record now stands at a putrid 1-5.

at Louisville. Loss.  We slow the Cardinals down, but can't pull out the upset.

at Virginia. Win. I don't think we are going 0-fer in the ACC again. This is solid road win. There is talk of another late season rally.

Florida State. Loss. This is a bad game. FSU blows us out at home.

NC State. Win. There is a lot of preseason hype around NC State, but I just have a feeling they will be a little overrated and we will play spoiler here.

UConn (at Fenway). Win. I think UConn will be terrible this year and we smash them at Fenway.

at Syracuse. Win. Everything looks good. BC controls the tempo and scoring and seems to have the Orange's offense figured out.

With this BC would finish 5-7 (3-5 in the ACC). This would be a huge problem for Jarmond. Does the strong finish and strong recruiting class earn Addazio enough goodwill to comeback one more year? I would be against it, but could see how the new AD would want to give him a chance.

Bad

During the offseason Steve Addazio will surely talk about injuries and bad luck. This team was also young. And next year things will get better. More games close games will break BC's way. Young players will improve. New players will emerge. But none of that excuses how bad this season went, including Saturday. Total offensive ineptitude, haphazard execution, questionable 3rd decisions, stupid penalties, and wasting huge opportunities.

This was BC's first winless conference season. The longest losing streak since 1978. The W-L record is masked by two wins that BC bought against FCS cupcakes.

Addazio has a lot to fix this year. When the offense is this bad, it is not purely a talent or age issue. The whole approach and the coaching shares the blame.

I will have my grades and second viewing thoughts up late Sunday.

Season Prediction Part I: worst case scenario

I couldn't be more excited about the season. I think Addazio did a good job of plugging holes and I think we can be competitive with most of our opponents. However, things don't always play out that way. This is my annual tradition of forecasting a season that goes off the rails. As a reminder, I don't think this will happen and I will make an official prediction later in the week. But if a few things go wrong, this is how the season could play out.

Worst Case Scenario

at UMass. Win. I am sure Whipple has extra motivation for this game, but that can't cover the flaws in his roster. It is closer than the spread, but BC wins.

Pitt. Loss. Pitt does the things we want to do, only they do them better. It is not a high scoring game, because both teams spend a lot of time running, but BC cannot keep it close. 

USC. Loss. Last year we played them amidst the chaos of Lane Kiffin...and it wasn't close. This year they are more than ready and the difference in talent is more noticeable.

Maine. Win. Like UMass, this isn't pretty but we do enough right to control the game and lock up a win.

Colorado State. Loss. One of the turning points between an okay season and a bad one. BC let's this game slip away and leaves us wondering if there is a guaranteed third win on the schedule.

at NC State. Loss. Our first true road game of the season and it does not go well. Murphy struggles and we start to wonder if it is time to play one of the freshmen.

Clemson. Loss. Remember the close, physical game at Clemson last year? So does Clemson. They take us seriously from the start and never allow a big play.

at Wake Forest. Win. Wake has a lot of problems and holes in their roster. Addazio still does enough to rally the boys and get an ACC road win. 

at Virginia Tech. Loss. Typical BC game in Blacksburg. We play hard but the big plays all go their way and we come out with a loss.

Louisville. Loss. Their offense destroys our defense as the heavy blitzing just leads to big plays.

at Florida State. Loss. At this point the Seminoles are cruising and looking to impress Committee members. They hang 50 on us.

Syracuse. Loss. I think this could be another close game that doesn't go our way again.

Even at 3-9, no one is calling for Addazio's head. Most understand this is a transition year. In this case, it leads to a few more transfers and another big recruiting class. But it does reset expectations for 2015 and puts pressure on the young guys to contribute. As I said, I am confident this won't happen...but it could. 

Season Prediction Part I: worst case scenario [FIXED]

As a reminder, this is the series of posts where I play out potential scenarios for the season. This is Part 1, the worst-case scenarios. This is not what I think will happen, but what could happen. As you can see, 2012 was even worse than my worst-case scenario. I have a lot of optimism about this season, but there are still enough issues and still enough questions marks that I could see the team falling apart. If things do go bad, this is how it might play out.

Worst Case Scenario

Villanova. Win. This should be a dress rehearsal but during a rough season, I could see this game being very close and BC pulling out a tight win. In that scenario, I think there would be a lot of anxiety heading into ACC play.

Wake Forest. Loss. Wake is not more talented than BC, but I could see them coming into the game more prepared and able to handle our blitzing. If we lose this game, I think it will also be a sign that our offense has issues.

at USC. Loss. We fly across country hoping to turn things around. Both sides of the ball show a little promise early but cannot score enough to win.

Florida State. Loss. Against the class of the ACC, we struggle to move the ball. Our defense starts improving but we are still undermanned when trying to contain Florida State's talent. 

Army. Win. This season we look prepared for Army's option and are able to run on them again. It doesn't really make up for last year's nadir, but at least we will have matched 2012's two wins.

At Clemson. Loss. I don't see any scenario where we beat Clemson on the road this year. And although I am overjoyed in the change in our defensive mindset, this is one of those games where it will probably hurt us. Bend but don't break kept many Clemson games close over the years.

At North Carolina. Loss. At this point in the season I could see the team losing hope. Yet even in our worst case season, I think Addazio will have them fighting. It will make the team endearing but won't be enough to get a win here.

Virginia Tech. Loss. This is one of the matchups that I think will be close regardless of our record. I don't think we win, but I think at this point our defense will keep us in most games.

at New Mexico State. Win. This is a terrible team. I respect Doug Martin and curse Spaz for helping him prepare for us, but I still think we will win. If we don't we hired the wrong coach.

North Carolina State. Loss. Without TOB this game isn't as important as it once was. I don't think he left them in the same place he left BC, but I think their defense will be decent. I see another close loss.

at Maryland. Win. I think Maryland will have a rough final year in the ACC. Getting them late helps us as a close game finally breaks our way. Even in the worse circumstances, we exceed last year's win total. 

at Syracuse. Win. Loss. Even if we have a rough season, I see us ending on a high note in a close win over Syracuse. [FIXED] I don't think Syracuse is all that great but winning back-to-back games on the road is never easy, especially at the end of the year.

4-8 (2-6) leaves BC home again during bowl season. But even in the worst case we double our win total from last year. 

Season Prediction Part I: worst case scenario

Every year I do three breakdowns of the season ahead. One is the pessimistic version, the next the optimistic and then the final is what I think will actually happen. Over the years I have missed the mark, but in most cases my actual prediction was pretty accurate. Last year for the first time we came pretty close to the worst case. I don't know what to expect this year. Because of the mood around the team and Spaz, I think the beginning of the season is critical. If we start slow, the season could unravel. If we win, the team might rally around each other and get back to winning football. If things do fall apart, this is how I think it will play out.

Worst Case Scenario

Miami. Loss. BC's offense struggles as the line buckles against the U's front and we can't make much happen with our depleted skill position players. BC's defense keeps us in the game, but we start another season with a home loss.

Maine. Win. BC bounces back from the rough loss in the opener. Even if things get real bad this season, I can't see a scenario where we lose to Maine.

at Northwestern. Loss. Even though BC knows what's coming, we can't adjust to the Wildcats' tempo or mobile QB.

Clemson. Loss. Like last season, Spaz plays ball control in order to keep it close, but BC can't keep up with even a low-scoring Clemson team.

at Army. Loss. Army is improved and gives us trouble throughout the game. They steal it late and leave every fan and player thinking the season is over.

at Florida State. Loss. BC names a new Athletic Director in the week prior to the game. There's renewed hope in the fanbase (and even among the players). But Florida State is rolling and crushes us.

at Georgia Tech. Loss. Georgia Tech's offense presents a tough matchup under normal circumstances. Add the chaos around the season and Spaz checking out and this game becomes another loss.

Maryland. Win. Spaz's saving grace in 2011 comes into the game in rough shape again. BC wins in a similar fashion: run, run and more running.

at Wake Forest. Loss. BC plays tough but Wake has another WTF win in the series and steals a close game at home.

Notre Dame. Loss. The Irish offense is playing well and light us up. BC scores more than our average but can't keep up in a shootout. This loss means no bowl for BC again. The new AD fires Spaz after the game. Doug Martin is named interim Head Coach.

Virginia Tech. Loss. Martin gives the team some new energy, but it is still not enough to beat Virginia Tech.

at NC State. Win. Is there a more predictable scenario than TOB losing to a lessor team in his last game against BC?

3-9 and (2-6) in conference means a total house cleaning. The majority of the coaching staff is let go and many players decide to transfer. BC hires a new coach and reexamines everything it does with regard to football. The 16 year culture of TOB, Coach Flip and their shared disciples is over.

Season Prediction Part I: worst case scenario

Once again it's time for one of the staples of the preseason: my predictions. As in the past, it will be three parts. The first is what I could envision as a worst case. The second will be the best case. The final will stand as my official prediction of what will actually happen. This season I am very torn. I have real optimism that the Rettig-Rogers combination will make a huge difference. I believe that Chase has a chance to be a special QB. However, I still am not at the point where I can trust our OLine and I have no idea who will be healthy in the backfield. Plus there is my distrust of Spaz as a game manager and motivator. So what follow is the BC's version of the season from Hell.

Worst Case Scenario

Northwestern. Loss. Despite a gimpy Persa BC cannot keep up with the Wildcats' prolific offense. The Eagle offense looks like a slightly better Tranq squad. The BC thin defensive backfield gets lit up.

at Central Florida. Loss. UCF out BC's BC. They win an ugly game with a tough defense and a serviceable offense. The BC bandwagon is empty.

Duke. Loss. A game that is reminiscent of Northwestern means BC opens the season 0-3. The defense is playing well enough but the offense is not scoring enough points. Montel has yet to see the field and Rettig is looking like a sophomore.

UMass. Win. BC wins! The offense finally shows a spark against an overmatched UMass team. Rettig is sharp and a glimmer of hope returns.

Wake Forest. Win. Like all BC-Wake games, this is a back and forth affair. BC's D forces a few key turnovers. Momentum has returned.

at Clemson. Loss. BC faces another dynamic offense with Clemson's new uptempo scheme. We contain them somewhat but can't keep up the scoring pace. BC loses but this has a twinge of a moral victory.

at Virginia Tech. Loss. This is one of those games in Lane Stadium where the game gets away from us quickly. It becomes a lopsided demoralizing loss.

at Maryland. Win. BC's defense makes O'Brien miserable. They force some turnovers and are in his face all day. The offense looks good too.

Florida State. Loss. Going into the game everyone will be talking about BC's short week and the powerful 'Noles. BC will keep it close but still lose.

NC State. Win. This is a circle the calender game for Spaz and Gene. Despite their overall improvement last year, I think TOB and NC State are going to miss Russell Wilson.

at Notre Dame. Loss. Like last year, I think the Irish will get up early and BC will try to play catch up all day. This loss will be a real backbreaker as it means no bowl game for the first time in 14 years.

at Miami. Loss. Another team with a good defense and fledgling offense. I think BC's "no bowl" hangover, the short week and the trip to Miami are too much. We lose another close game.

This would leave BC at 4-8 (3-5) and out of the postseason. It would also raise numerous questions about the direction of the program. As I said, I don't think this will happen, but it is in the realm of possibility.