Saturday, August 27, 2011

Season Prediction Part I: worst case scenario

Once again it's time for one of the staples of the preseason: my predictions. As in the past, it will be three parts. The first is what I could envision as a worst case. The second will be the best case. The final will stand as my official prediction of what will actually happen. This season I am very torn. I have real optimism that the Rettig-Rogers combination will make a huge difference. I believe that Chase has a chance to be a special QB. However, I still am not at the point where I can trust our OLine and I have no idea who will be healthy in the backfield. Plus there is my distrust of Spaz as a game manager and motivator. So what follow is the BC's version of the season from Hell.

Worst Case Scenario



Northwestern. Loss. Despite a gimpy Persa BC cannot keep up with the Wildcats' prolific offense. The Eagle offense looks like a slightly better Tranq squad. The BC thin defensive backfield gets lit up.


at Central Florida. Loss. UCF out BC's BC. They win an ugly game with a tough defense and a serviceable offense. The BC bandwagon is empty.


Duke. Loss. A game that is reminiscent of Northwestern means BC opens the season 0-3. The defense is playing well enough but the offense is not scoring enough points. Montel has yet to see the field and Rettig is looking like a sophomore.


UMass. Win. BC wins! The offense finally shows a spark against an overmatched UMass team. Rettig is sharp and a glimmer of hope returns.


Wake Forest. Win. Like all BC-Wake games, this is a back and forth affair. BC's D forces a few key turnovers. Momentum has returned.


at Clemson. Loss. BC faces another dynamic offense with Clemson's new uptempo scheme. We contain them somewhat but can't keep up the scoring pace. BC loses but this has a twinge of a moral victory.


at Virginia Tech. Loss. This is one of those games in Lane Stadium where the game gets away from us quickly. It becomes a lopsided demoralizing loss.


at Maryland. Win. BC's defense makes O'Brien miserable. They force some turnovers and are in his face all day. The offense looks good too.


Florida State. Loss. Going into the game everyone will be talking about BC's short week and the powerful 'Noles. BC will keep it close but still lose.


NC State. Win. This is a circle the calender game for Spaz and Gene. Despite their overall improvement last year, I think TOB and NC State are going to miss Russell Wilson.


at Notre Dame. Loss. Like last year, I think the Irish will get up early and BC will try to play catch up all day. This loss will be a real backbreaker as it means no bowl game for the first time in 14 years.


at Miami. Loss. Another team with a good defense and fledgling offense. I think BC's "no bowl" hangover, the short week and the trip to Miami are too much. We lose another close game.


This would leave BC at 4-8 (3-5) and out of the postseason. It would also raise numerous questions about the direction of the program. As I said, I don't think this will happen, but it is in the realm of possibility.

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16 Comments:

At 6:20 PM, Blogger anonymous said...

MD and NCSU are toss up games, even in a middling scenario both are 50/50 games. We could lose one or both. I can see our 'worst' easily becoming 3-8/ 2-6 or, barf, 2-8/1-7.

More Worst, BC will then be lumped in the not-really-ACC-level-football heap with Dook and Wake for the next so many years and recruiting will slide to YouConn levels. To add to the horror - we are still taking worst-case-scenario- since so many games were close enough/ moral victories, and none were blow outs, and with Rettig still viewed as "developing," Spaz is not fired. Day become OC and is soon unmasked as a total poser. Suntrup bails and heads to Villanova to become the next Joe Flacco. That new success gets 'Nova into BE.

I gotta stop!!!

Northwestern and UCF are HuGe games for BC. Is BC going to be a tiger leaping out of the box next Saturday at noon??? I kinda doubt it. Are the new DBs going to be tested? Surely and by a very and highly motivated good QB. Will they "pass" the test. I kinda doubt it.

 
At 6:40 PM, Blogger anonymous said...

Continuing,can Spaz get his players truly ready for the season opener? Consider last year's first play from scrimmage:

" Less than 15 seconds had ticked off the clock and Dave Shinskie had already shown that it was the first game of the season.

The 26-year-old sophomore quarterback and the Boston College offense started at their 19-yard line and were quickly pulled backward by a delay-of-game penalty before the first snap.

And when Shinskie stepped to the line for his second crack at his first play, he mistakenly lined up behind right guard Thomas Claiborne."

 
At 6:49 PM, Blogger EL MIZ said...

LOL that was a classic sequence "anonymous" i remember thinking "wow this isn't matty ice and steve logan" when shinskie was lining up at G after a delay of game on the FIRST PLAY OF THE SEASON! a sign of things to come indeed! it still makes me chuckle.

that sequence, however, is a great reason why this year WONT be last year. rogers is a real coach who has had legitimate success as the OC in college and as a QB coach in the NFL. 3rd & 9quill was a complete and utter joke; the BC offense was honestly the worst coached unit i've ever seen in terms of preparation, execution, and overall strategy. not to mention rettig is more talented and more confident than shinskie.

can't wait for the best case scenario!

 
At 7:10 PM, Blogger Rob said...

Probably a little to optimistic for worst case. ATL, you love the spaz and gene really get up for the nc state game. Your evidence I guess is our 1-1 record including last years blow out? Don't really see it. We could easily lose to state. Probably Maryland to, if we lose the first 3, things will start getting very ugly and 2-8 is in play.

 
At 8:21 PM, Blogger anonymous said...

Errr, ah, em oops on the math.

We play 12 games, so let me correct worst to 3-9/2-6 Or, even worst-er 2-10/1-7.

Rob, I think you meant to say: 2-10 could be in play if we start 0-3

 
At 8:42 PM, Blogger Rob said...

You got it anonymous, get us to the best case fast ATL, the worst case gives me nightmares.

 
At 8:59 AM, Blogger mod34b said...

Lose to Duke??? No way. Not even in a worst case scenario.

Duke had 4 yards rushing last year and got very lucky with a 95 yard fumble return. (Harris fumbled on 5yard line). That is never going to happen again.

Even with Duke QB throwing 71% for 300 yards, Duke could only muster 9 points -- 3 field goals.


So if we beat Duke and split NCSU and MD, same result: 4-8.

But with every black cloud there is a silver lining: Bye Bye Spaz.

 
At 1:41 PM, Blogger mod34b said...

I took a look at your 2010 worst case scenario. It was your most accurate (75% correct) predcition in 2010

2010 ATL worst case
Weber State. Win.
Kent State. Win.
Virginia Tech. Loss.
Notre Dame. Loss.
At NC State. Win. [LOSS]
At Florida State. Loss.
Maryland. Loss.
Clemson. Loss. [WIN]
At Wake Forest. Win.
At Duke. Loss. [Win]
Virginia. Win.
At Syracuse. Win.

 
At 11:46 PM, Blogger EagleManhattan said...

ATL,

Can't believe you haven't written more about the Blaudschun article explaining why Okoroha and LeGrande left. It basically say that Spaz kicked our best safety off the team to make a point about "attitude" to rest of the squad, and then failed to realize that this would piss off one of his best friends immensely, leading to the ridiculous situation we find ourselves in now.

If this is true, this is absolutely horrible mismanagement.

 
At 12:35 AM, Blogger mod34b said...

You are reading too much into the article. It does say anything like u say. Rather. It says they were backup not living up to expecatation. But O was gone for a specific offense and L chose to leave even though Spaz wanted him to stay.

Team discipline is central to success.

 
At 1:04 AM, Blogger Benjamin said...

Reading the article, it sounds like that LeGrande was benched, i.e. not starting, because he wasn't meeting the coaching staff's expectations and was having a poor attitude about it. To me, that seems like a discipline issue.
O was dismissed for violating team rules. It wasn't just his attitude. They were benched for "attitude" problems. They are no longer with the team for other reasons.

To echo Mod, discipline is central to a team. To echo Spaz, I wish the best of luck to O and LeGrande. Hopefully something will work out for them.

 
At 1:06 AM, Blogger Benjamin said...

Blaudschun doesn't do a very good job of articulating what happened. When he says Spaz was "subtle," it was a poor choice of words..

 
At 7:08 AM, Blogger Dan said...

Well, Blauds has never been subtle about sucking at his job.

 
At 2:58 PM, Blogger Rob said...

Its amazing that poorly written mess of an article was published, maybe it was the best they could do out of Spaz quotes. Seemed to be saying that (1) the two were benched for the scrimaage for lack of improvement/effort; amd (2) O had a series of team violations, had one more after the benching and was dismissed from the team. LeGrande then decided to leave the team, despite Spaz wanting him to stay.

 
At 12:16 AM, Blogger Dennis Burke said...

No game watch in Atlanta?

 
At 1:41 PM, Blogger Rob said...

Funny to read this now. WAY to optimistic!!

 

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