Season prediction

I am torn as I look towards the season. On paper, I think our schedule is very manageable and I am hearing good things about summer progress. However, (and I understand this is really subjective) Billy O's press interactions have me a bit worried. He's not saying anything wrong, but just picking up on vibes, I feel like he's not as confident as he was at times last year. It is probably silly, but I feel like if O'Brien felt we were making a big leap this season, his vibe would be different. 

I know the bookmakers think we will take a step back this year, but if you break the schedule down in chunks, I think the floor for the season is actually pretty high.

Even if you are not confident it is easy to rationalize 6 wins. You get two wins from UConn and Fordham. Split Pitt and 'Cuse. Go 2-1 against the Stanford, Cal, Michigan State combo. Then get just one win against the rest of the schedule and you are bowling again.

In the end, we are replacing a lot of talent and using an untested QB. There will probably be a lot of two steps forward and two steps back. Leading to 7-6 again.

W - Fordham. Good way to start the year and shake off the rust.

W - at Michigan State. One of the early indicators. If we win this game on the road, the upside for the season can be very interesting.

W - at Stanford. We are getting a Stanford team in flux. The late night West Coast game adds some complexity, but I feel good about this one.

W - Cal. A 4-0 start would get a lot of good attention.

L - at Pitt. I don't necessarily buy into the Pitt hype, but it is on the road and I don't see us starting off 5-0.

L - Clemson. We put up a good fight but are over matched.

W - UConn. Probably closer than we like.

L - at Louisville. Another program that I don't fear, but it is on the road and we will be underdogs.

L - Notre Dame. Night game. Red Bandanna. This could be huge. I want to believe, but odds say it will be an "L."

L - SMU. They are replacing a lot of talent and I think it will be closer than last year, but still tough.

W - Georgia Tech. One of these ACC underdog games will break our way. Maybe we catch them looking ahead to the Georgia game.

W - at Syracuse. We end on a high note.

L - Bowl game. It is unlikely to be Fenway or Pinstripes again, so I imagine it will be somewhere our fans won't travel to. Our bowl mojo remains bad and we come up short on eight wins again.

Season Predictions

No best and worst case scenarios this year. Just straight up picks. I am very high on this year's team and season. Outside of the raw, thin and inexperienced OLine, most of the pieces are in place. Hafley/Lukabu have yet to field a dominant D, but improved greatly from Year 1 to Year 2. A similar progression this year would mean a Top 40 defensive unit. Do I worry about a new OC? Not really. When McNulty has above average talent he can produce. It all comes down to Phil Jurkovec. If he stays healthy, he and BC will have a huge, memorable year.

I also think our schedule is manageable and friendly. In my opinion, we start with five wins (Rutgers, UConn, Maine, Duke and Syracuse). Even going 3-4 in the remaining games gives Hafley a better season than we've had in 13 years! I think we can do better than that. I've been doing this long enough to know we will still have a painful loss or two in the mix. But this is how I think it plays out.

Season Prediction

Rutgers -- Sept. 3: Win. Great way to start the season. A Power 5 game that pads the win total and gives us confidence for the season.

at Virginia Tech -- Sept. 10: Win. Probably the most pivotal game of the season. I don't think much of VT, but still know enough that a road win at Lane in Week 2 would be a big accomplishment.

Maine -- Sept. 17: Win. Another gimme.

at Florida State -- Sept. 24: Win. This is a winnable game. Probably a bit of a shootout, but no reason we can't take them.

Louisville -- Oct. 1: Win. At this point I see the D coming into its own. We win this and we are ranked.

Clemson -- Oct 8: Win. Now things are getting serious. Jurk gets a ton of press. Hafley is the next college football head coaching star, etc.

at Wake Forest -- Oct. 22: Loss. If you are a BC fan reading this, you know we would follow a huge win with a gut punch loss. (I think we split the Clemson-Wake games. It is more BCish that we finally beat Clemson only to fall to Wake during one of their upswings.)

at UConn -- Oct. 29: Win. Great scheduling break here.

Duke -- Nov. 4: Win. Ranked again.

at NC State -- Nov. 12: Loss. (Like the Clemson/Wake portion of the schedule, I think we split NC State/ND...and it would be fitting to finally beat the Irish again after a tough loss to NC State.)

at Notre Dame -- Nov. 19: Win. The BC bandwagon would feel like it is 1993!

Syracuse -- Nov. 26: Win. No letdowns this year. 

Yes, I just predicted a 10-2 season. A lot would have to go our way, but I feel like this is in the mix. 10-2 (6-2 in the ACC) probably keeps us out of the ACC Championship game but forces us into a decent bowl. We've never been shipped to the Sun Bowl, so I think it would finally be our turn. My guess is we play someone like Oregon State. We win and finish 11-2 and just outside the Top 10. Hafley would certainly be plucked by someone, but it would be a fun, memorable season.

Season Prediction Part III: what will happen

The outlook for this season is pretty straight forward...even from blind, Hafley apologists like me. We have a very good QB and what should be a prolific and explosive offense. We have a very friendly schedule with nearly four wins guaranteed. The biggest issue is going to be the D. Can Hafley and Lukabu get this group up to speed quickly? It lacks depth and much of that side of the ball is either mediocre or untested. I think the DBs will carry the team, but have no idea what the front will do to help out. I think Hafley will get the most out of them and it will be a fun season, but we are not at a championship level yet. This serves as my official prediction for the season.

What Will Happen

Colgate. Win. Colgate does some things well, but I can't see this one being close.

at UMass. Win. This should also be very one sided. I hope lots of backups play the first two weeks. 

at Temple. Win. The first real test. I don't take it lightly but still think we win.

Mizzou. Win. The season turns on this game. By going 4-0 out of conference, Hafley puts BC in a position to exceed their win totals of the last decade. 

at Clemson. Loss. Probably a lot like last year, where they take our early punch but we can't put them away.

NC State. Win. Probably a tougher game than many expect. We get back in the rankings after this 'W.'

at Louisville. Win. Another close game, but we hang on.

at Syracuse. Win. I think things could very well be falling apart for Syracuse by this point in their season.

Virginia Tech. Loss. I don't think VT is special, but I just don't see us navigating the second half of the schedule without some hiccups.

at Georgia Tech. Win. Hafley wins another close game. Jurk is generating a lot of buzz now.

Florida State. Loss. If FSU gets their offense going, I worry about this game.

Wake Forest. Win. Wake late in the season (or any time really) can always make things interesting. I think at this point Hafley would know what his team is and isn't and get them to perform at a high level.

9-3 (5-3 in the ACC) would be BC's best showing in years. Everyone is excited. But we push for the Holiday Bowl since not many ACC teams want to go west and we have enough fans and alums in Southern California to make it appealing. We play some mid-level Pac 12 team (Stanford?) and win. A 10-win season with seven wins over P5 teams is a huge deal in Year 2. Everyone is looking forward to Hafley Year 3.

Season Prediction Part II: Worst Case Scenario

The annual what could be series. I am excited about the season and do believe big things are ahead. But that doesn't mean that it couldn't all fall apart. We are young and have a ton of question marks on the defensive side of the ball. Teams will probably adjust to our our offense a bit. And that precious luck, which seemed to favor us last year, could even out with some bad bounces this season. This is a worst case scenario situation. Final prediction will post Wednesday.

Worst Case Scenario

Colgate. Win. The schedule is very friendly. This is example No. 1.

at UMass. Win. Even in our worst years, the schedule comes with a couple of built in wins. 

at Temple. Win. A close game here has everyone nervous.

Mizzou. Loss. The bubble bursts.

at Clemson. Loss. The best team in the conference kills us.

NC State. Loss. I don't think the team will just roll over, but this is another loss.

at Louisville. Loss. A four game losing streak is a sign the season is falling apart.

at Syracuse. Win. stop the bleeding game. Even in terrible seasons, good coaches pull out wins.

Virginia Tech. Loss. If our D is terrible, these are the games we will lose.

at Georgia Tech. Loss. On the road...one of those bad luck games.

Florida State. Loss. Another losing streak.

Wake Forest. Win. Hafley ends the season with a win to calm everyone's nerves.

This scenario would be very disappointing. Hafley showed signs of being special last year with how he manages the team and manages a game. This would have me doubting Year 1. But as I said, I don't think it would happen. 5-7 would mean no bowl and lots of questions, but if 5-7 is a considered a terrible year, than that would show Hafley has just raised expectations.

Season Prediction Part I: Best Case Scenario

The annual what could be series. I think this year will be fun. It will be great to see fans back in the stands and I feel like our season and Hafley's growing media presence will generate buzz and extra attention to the program. The schedule is friendly too. Will there be bumps in the road? Probably. But here is what could happen if everything works out just right. Worst case will come tomorrow. Final prediction will post Wednesday.

Best Case Scenario

Colgate. Win. Glorified scrimmage. No issues. Perfect opponent to shake off the rust.

at UMass. Win. When I talk about a friendly schedule, starting on the road in state against a terrible UMass team is what I meant. 

at Temple. Win. This is more of a challenge, but BC should be able to easily outscore Temple. I fear lots of shootouts this year, but I don't see a Temple hanging for four quarters.

Mizzou. Win. The first real test and in this perfect season, Hafley and Co. pass the test.

at Clemson. Loss. Both teams come in ranked and this is a huge game nationally. We give them another tough game but come up short again.

NC State. Win. I think it will be a tough game, but in a perfect season we bounce back from Clemson with a good solid ACC win.

at Louisville. Win. A high scoring, back and forth game. BC holds on to win.

at Syracuse. Win. I never take a trip to Syracuse lightly, but think we win this trap game.

Virginia Tech. Win. I think things could be falling apart for VT at this point in the season. We crush them.

at Georgia Tech. Win. This is a tricky one as Georgia Tech will be improving. We still win.

Florida State. Win. FSU is one of those teams that beats us when they shouldn't. They won't this year.

Wake Forest. Win. If we enter this game with one loss, the pressure will be intense. I think we are up for the challenge.

The loss to Clemson keeps us out of the ACC Championship game, but the incredible buzz and record get us in an at large New Year's Bowl game (whichever one has a spot to fill). We play a power and lose...with an interim coach. If Hafley goes 11-1, the entire football world will try to hire him away. I see him in the NFL and would gladly wish him luck if he goes out with this type of season.

Season Prediction Part III: what will happen

There have been years under certain coaches where BC Football's record wasn't just predictable, it was a certainty. Most notably and recently under Addazio. This year is a total unknown and we should all be thankful. In these times, sports should be a fun, community building escape. When you dislike the coach and the product on the field is boring and predictable, the escape becomes a punishment. 

Jeff Hafley has done everything right so far. It gets a bit harder Saturday. But regardless of what happens, the fact that none of us know what to expect is exciting. Are we going to shock the world? Be a disaster? Probably neither. This is still BC. But I do think we are in for a fun year and here is how it will play out. This serves as my official prediction.

What will happen

at Duke. Win. We go heavy run since Bailey and the Oline are our best assets.

Texas State. Win. I am assuming Jurk emerges as the clear starter after this game.

North Carolina. Loss. At this point I assume the D will still have some rough transition moments.

Pitt. Win. A lot of folks seem to be high I Pitt. I am not. I think we match up well.

at Virginia Tech. Loss. I think this could be a shootout. We just end up on the wrong end.

Georgia Tech. Win. At 4-2, we would start to get some genuine respect. This is right around the time of the Big Ten's debut, so still unranked.

at Clemson. Loss. Hafley knows Clemson well but I still think the talent difference is too big.

at Syracuse. Win. A back to basics game. We pound them again.

Notre Dame. Win. Huge attention getter. The students storm the field in the most socially distant and responsible way possible.

Louisville. Loss. This would be a big letdown, but I don't see us getting through the season without a few hiccups.

at Virginia. Win. A nice way to end a strange regular season.

With this, BC would finish 7-4 (6-4 in ACC play). That record would not be enough for an ACC Championship slot nor a big bowl game. But I think we get invited to a low level bowl (if they happen) like Detroit. I think we win that against a terrible Big Ten team and finish the season 8-4. Probably not enough to be ranked, but a great start to the Hafley era. 

Season Prediction Part II: Best Case Scenario

As I referenced in Part I, I am very optimistic on the Hafley era. Yet at the end of the day, this is still his first year and he is a first-time head coach. He also inherited a patchwork roster and had his entire transition and training camp disrupted by a global pandemic. There are plenty of unknowns, but here is how it might play out if everything goes right. My actual predictions post Wednesday.

Best Case Scenario

at Duke. Win. BC looks much improved on D and win with ball control and rushing on offense. A good opener.

Texas State. Win. No scares for this unplanned game. BC handles them and the D looks strong again.

North Carolina. Loss. In their first early test, BC comes up a little short in a back and forth game. Optimism remains high.

Pitt. Win. Maybe I am taking them lightly, but I see us beating Pitt in all three of my scenarios.

at Virginia Tech. Win. The offense is coming around (with Jurk) and get its first big road win. BC now enters the Top 25.

Georgia Tech. Win. This is a game where the OLine wins the day and controls throughout. 

at Clemson. Loss. This game gets a ton of hype in the run up. All the talking heads ask "is this the only team that might beat Clemson?" We don't as we can't outscore them. BC remains ranked.

at Syracuse. Win. I think BC can do what we did last year and run all over them.

Notre Dame. Win. Jurk's revenge. We help spoil their season. Opinions on Hafley move from well liked to beloved.

Louisville. Win. BC is flying high. This is a tough game, but we come out ahead. 

at Virginia. Win. BC stays focused and finishes the season with a nice, no-nonsense win.

This would leave BC at 9-2 (8-2 in ACC play). Who knows what bowls will or will not happen. I also don't know if the Big Ten and Pac 12 will be able to play in all of their respective bowl partnerships. But in this scenario, I don't think BC makes the ACC Championship Game with two conference losses. I still think the ACC will protect their partners first and the bigger bowl will get priority. So, I see us to the Camping World Bowl (Orlando) against one of the bottom rung SEC teams. I think we win giving us an improbable 10 win season and a Top 15 ranking. This makes Hafley the hottest coach in the country (who may get hired away), but it is worth it for this sort of season.

Season Prediction Part III: What will happen

Here it is: my official prediction. At a very high level, I know the talent is young, but I think it is on par with what we've had the past few years. I think the schedule is tougher on paper than it is on the field. My biggest issues are I don't trust Addazio to manage tight games and I don't expect Brown to make any sort of leap. Therefore we are what we've been under Addazio.

Virginia Tech. Loss. My guess is this will be like the opener against GT a few years ago. BC blows a winnable game.

Richmond. Win. Should be easy. Just don't hurt Dillon.

Kansas. Win. Closer than we want, but still a BC win.

at Rutgers. Win. Play smart, run Dillon a lot and take the road 'W.'

Wake Forest. Win. It will be back and forth, but we do enough at home.

at Louisville. Loss. I think we probably have more depth and maybe more talent. I am betting we let them hang around and steal a game.

NC State. Loss. I don't think much of Doeren, so it is frustrating to watch him build a better program.

at Clemson. Loss. I think we scare them early, then they pull away.

at Syracuse. Win. This has been a weird series under Addazio. I expect more of the same this year.

Florida State. Win. A quasi-upset. This gets everyone fired up.

at Notre Dame. Loss. On the road, against a highly ranked team. What do you expect Addazio to do?

at Pitt. Loss. This is the heartbreaker. Addazio has another chance to break through and doesn't.

6-6 (3-5 in ACC play) will be enough to get us to the Military Bowl where we beat Navy to get to seven frustrating wins.

Season Prediction Part II: best case scenario

BC has a difference maker at a key position. In the right year, with the right scheme Dillon could carry this team far. He will make plays, he will draw attention so that others can make plays and in theory he could set a tone on offense that protects the D. I don't think that will be so smooth, but this is how it could play out if everything goes BC's way.

(My official predictions are coming Wednesday.)

Virginia Tech. Win. Tech is vulnerable and we run all over them.

Richmond. Win. Not even interesting.

Kansas. Win. Another easy W. BC is now ranked.

at Rutgers. Win. BC avoids a trap game. Lots of excitement.

Wake Forest. Win. Another close game, so now we realize we might be overrated, but the win still gives BC a great start.

at Louisville. Win. BC overpowers a rebuilding Louisville D. The team moves into the Top 10.

NC State. Loss. Even in our best seasons, I don't see us going undefeated, so a setback here is natural.

at Clemson. Loss. We can't survive a shoot out with them.

at Syracuse. Win. A close win, much needed win.

Florida State. Win. BC starts moving up the rankings again.

at Notre Dame. Win. Because of the time of year, opponent and ranking, this is probably Addazio's biggest win.

at Pitt. Win. BC takes care of business to complete a great regular season.

Two ACC losses means no ACC Championship. Instead BC ends up in El Paso vs UCLA. We win that to give Addazio a 11-2 regular season and a Top 10 finish. No more seven win talk. It is really a season for the ages.

Season Prediction Part I: worst case scenario

Here we go again. This is not what I think will happen...just what could happen. We have enough issues and concerns, that this season could go sideways. Do you trust Addazio to pull this team out of a nosedive if one should happen?

(My official predictions are coming Wednesday.)

Virginia Tech. Loss. It is a tough way to start the season. BC looks sloppy.

Richmond. Win. I don't see any way we lose to Richmond.

Kansas. Win. While Kansas is going to be better than they've been, it won't be this early in Miles' time there.

at Rutgers. Loss. Huge letdown. The D is not what is was or should be.

Wake Forest. Win. The Wake-BC series is filled with close, weird games. I think this is more of the same, only it goes BC's way.

at Louisville. Loss. Dillon's last trip to Louisville was a career maker. I don't think they let him run all over them again.

NC State. Loss. This is where the season feels out of control. Lots of hot seat talk.

at Clemson. Loss. Clemson is not losing focus at home against us this year.

at Syracuse. Loss. Another ugly Cuse loss.

Florida State. Win. I think FSU is going to be a mess again. We rally for the Crowther game.

at Notre Dame. Loss. BC keeps it close, but can't knock off the Irish. Bowl hopes gone.

at Pitt. Loss. Nothing to play for and it shows.

I would usually predict that a 4-8 season would get Addazio fired, but we know how basketball played out.

Season Prediction Part III: what will happen

Addazio has said we have one of the best Olines in the country. He also made similar statements about our RBs and TEs. That alone should mean a Top 25 season. Yet I have my doubts. I don't know if I trust him to navigate and push the right buttons during the season. I know we exploded during the second half of last year and we rallied in 2016. But why does it come to that every year? Can he avoid it this year? This is how I see it playing out.

(This will serve as my actual predictions for the year.)

UMass. Win. Whipple has improved things but they are still terrible. I don't think this will be close.

Holy Cross. Win. Addazio might complain about the schedule, but he was gifted two cupcakes to start the season.

at Wake Forest. Win. I don't think this will be pretty, but I still think BC has enough of a talent advantage to win this game during a short week.

at Purdue. Loss. I see this as a shootout. Even if Dillon goes off -- which I think he will against them -- I still think Purdue will answer. It is a road game against a rising team. I just see something not going our way.

Temple. Win. Another game BC should win without a problem.

at NC State. Win. Another tough road game, but I like how our D matches up against their O. I see this as relatively low scoring and BC running out the clock late.

Louisville. Loss. I think this will feel a lot like the Purdue game, where we lose a game where both teams score in the 30s.

Miami. Loss. As I've mentioned in the best and worst case, this game will be hyped to the heavens. I also see it as another close loss. Dillon can only do so much.

at Virginia Tech. Loss. The worst game of the season. The only game where BC is not competitive.

Clemson. Loss. At this point Clemson is playing with a lot of confidence and BC is dinged up.

at Florida State. Win. The late season Addazio "stop the bleeding" game. I don't think FSU will be very good this year and I think we can pound them down.

Syracuse. Win. I expect Syracuse to be bad this year and I think it remains a good matchup for us.

This would leave BC as 7-5 (4-4) in the ACC. No major bowls for us, so we play in the Military Bowl against Navy (an unofficial home game for them). It will be an ugly struggle like our last bowl against the Midshipmen, but BC wins.

Addazio finishes with his first eight win season at BC, but it feels like a letdown.

Season Prediction Part II: best case scenario

This is the most talented BC team in a decade. We have elite players on both sides of the ball. Our bruising running game and enormous OLine provide a matchup problem for every team we face. It should be our year. It could be our year. If everything goes right and Addazio doesn't get in the way, this could be special. If it is special, this is how I see it play out.

(My official predictions are coming Wednesday.)

UMass. Win. Total romp. Not even interesting. The backups play most of the second half.

Holy Cross. Win. The only thing interesting about this game is the renewal of the old rivalry. The game is terrible as BC cruises.

at Wake Forest. Win. Suspensions mean we catch them at the right time. BC starts 3-0 and is finally ranked.

at Purdue. Win. A potential trap avoided. BC grinds it out and Dillon has a big day to spark Heisman talk.

Temple. Win. BC keeps moving up in the polls. The passing game is also clicking and BC is scoring in bunches.

at NC State. Win. The D leads the way with lots of sacks and turnovers. BC starts 6-0 and is now in the Top 10.

Louisville. Win. A close game, but like last year, Dillon breaks a few big ones to get the win.

Miami. Win. Miami comes in ranked too. The game is a huge deal (Friday night, ESPN, Red Bandanna). BC runs over the shellshocked 'Canes. Campus is crazy. Playoff talk starting.

at Virginia Tech. Loss. The bubble bursts as it has so many times in Blacksburg. A few mistakes on the road and BC can't recover.

Clemson. Loss. Another wild game at Alumni that ends with a narrow loss. BC is barely in the Top 25.

at Florida State. Win. BC rights the ship and uses the ground game to control and ultimately win.

Syracuse. Win. The Orange are checked out. BC cruises.

BC finished 10-2 (6-2 in the ACC). Not good enough to get into the ACC Championship game and not good enough to get an at-large in the major bowls.

I think BC gets an invite back to Orlando for the Camping World Bowl vs Oklahoma State. I think we win that matchup and finish 11-2 and in the Top 15. Addazio silences all his critics...including this one.

Season Prediction Part I: worst case scenario

Here we go again. My little preseason exercise in "what if?" There are lots of reasons to be optimistic this year, but we know things can fall apart quickly. So here is how the season might play out if nothing goes our way. Tuesday will be the what the perfect season would look like and Wednesday will be my actual predictions for the year.

UMass. Win. Brown looks rusty, but BC still runs all day on UMass.

Holy Cross. Win. Another sloppy game, but BC has enough talent to cruise.

at Wake Forest. Loss. A short week leads to major confusion. Brown still struggles and Wake loads up to stop Dillon.

at Purdue. Loss. BC can't keep up in a shootout. Suddenly the preseason hype starts turning to hot seat talk.

Temple. Win. Another game that is much closer than it should be. The Offense continues to look one dimensional, but the BC D carries the team.

at NC State. Loss. BC doesn't give up the big play and hangs for a while, but NCSU chips away on offense, controls the clock and the game.

Louisville. Loss. A game BC should win but doesn't. There are some mistakes and now a winless ACC schedule starts to seem possible.

Miami. Loss. It is a national TV and red bandanna game. BC is hyped and it is close. But mistakes hurt BC again and the passing game remains one of the worst in college football.

at Virginia Tech. Loss. Another high scoring offense pulls away from BC.

Clemson. Loss. BC plays well, but can't hold back Clemson.

at Florida State. Loss. Another ugly game. The narrative continues that BC is "playing better" but just unlucky.

Syracuse.  Win. Senior Day and a positive way to end a bad season.

This would leave BC at 4-8 and home for the bowl season. In my opinion it would also be time to make a head coaching change.

[UPDATED] Season Prediction Part III: what will happen

[Thanks to all those who pointed out the problem in my W-L math. My mistake. I apologize. I had different drafts. I still think we go 8-5 (3-5) in the ACC. The Notre Dame game has been corrected to a win.]

This is Addazio's team now. All the players are his recruits. He's created a staff of loyal colleagues. He has an AD ready to support him and he has a great recruiting tool in the new Indoor Practice Facility. Whatever he accomplishes this year is probably as good as it is going to ever get at for him at BC. I am not predicting a breakthrough. I think it will be just more of the same.

This will serve as my official prediction for the season.

at Northern Illinois. Win. The team doesn't look great, but Addazio is lucky that our D matches up well with their offense. Low-scoring, ugly win.

Wake Forest. Win. I know the games have been even the past few years, but I think this year BC's talent advantage makes it a fairly comfortable game.

Notre Dame. Win. This game will help make or break the season. If Addazio wins, we start 3-0 and have the fan base pumped. If we lose, it will feel like the same old, same old. I think we win but he disappoints later.

at Clemson. Loss. Closer than last year but not close enough. Instead of playing to win, we play conservatively and it costs us.

Central Michigan. Win. A good overall win as the team plays well in all aspects of the game.

Virginia Tech. Loss. This is the rough part of the schedule. I think many fans start to lose hope during this stretch.

at Louisville. Loss. I think we will be due for a blowout at some point. I predict it will be Louisville who kills us.

at Virginia. Win. It stops the bleeding and feels like a decent road win.

Florida State. Loss. I think this will be a real heartbreaker. We lead throughout but blow it late.

NC State. Win. I am on record as thinking NC State is ridiculously overrated. I think we handle them.

UConn (at Fenway). Win. I think this is one of those games where we make their Offense look incapable of scoring.

at Syracuse. Loss. I think Addazio will trip up against one of our peer programs. I think it will be Syracuse just to make the season that much more frustrating.

This leaves BC 7-5 (3-5 in the ACC). BC goes to the St. Petersburg Bowl and plays USF. Although it is a quasi-home game for them, we dominate and finish 8-5. It is not another 7-6 season, but it will sure feel like it.

Season Prediction Part II: best case scenario

If Addazio has any real substance as a head coach, one year he will have a season when it all comes together and all breaks his way. If he ever has a season like that, this is how it might play out.

As a reminder, this is not what I think will happen. This is more of a "what if." My real prediction will come later in the week.

at Nothern Illinois. Win. The D looks tremendous and creates all sorts of turnovers. BC's QB situation still seems a bit unsettled, but the OLine creates big holes for the running backs.

Wake Forest. Win. This is a good matchup for BC. BC gets to the QB all day. The passing game looks okay, but BC's deep and talented RBs remain the stars.

Notre Dame. Win. Needless to say, this is a big game and a big win for Addazio. The 3-0 start earns BC some votes in the polls.

at Clemson. Loss. Both teams are undefeated and it gets a primetime slot on ESPN. The game is low scoring, but BC cannot move the ball against an elite D.

Central Michigan. Win. Another relatively easy game. BC's OL and DL control the game.

Virginia Tech. Win. A huge confidence builder. This proves the hot start was legit. With the win, BC is ranked.

at Louisville. Loss. The Cardinals tear up BC's top D. This is the worst we look all year.

at Virginia. Win. I just don't expect much from UVA this year. I think BC controls throughout.

Florida State. Loss. A real letdown in front of a solid Friday night crowd.

NC State. Win. As I have mentioned, I don't get the NC State hype. I think we win this game with ease.

UConn (at Fenway). Win. We just run on UConn all day. This is fun to watch.

at Syracuse. Win. This is very close, but BC holds on in the end.

This would leave BC 9-3 (5-3 in the ACC). Clearly not among the elite of the ACC, but it would show that Addazio can compete when he has his players. Because we still don't sell tickets, I think we end up in the Sun Bowl against Oregon. BC wins that to finish 10-3 and just outside the top 10.

Season Prediction Part I: worst case scenario

Here we go! Time for my annual tradition of forecasting BC's ceiling, basement and what will probably happen. As always, I start with the worst case scenario. This season is Addazio's 5th year. It is the one he has been pointing to since the day he arrived. If everything falls apart now -- at a time when it is should be turning the corner -- then the guy is done at BC. I don't think the following will happen, but this is how it could go bad.

As a reminder, this is not what I think will happen. This is more of a "what if." My real prediction will come later in the week.

at Northern Illinois. Loss. Both QBs play and both look bad. The Offense is stagnant and the D allows a few big plays.

Wake Forest. Loss. Another low scoring Defensive game. But BC's D is not what it was a few years ago. An 0-2 start basically ends Addazio's career with the BC fanbase. Lame ducks status depends on his new boss.

Notre Dame. Loss. BC comes out fired up and the fans show some signs of life. But it is not enough as the OL is a problem.

at Clemson. Loss. Another loss, but like ND, it is a close game so apologists have plenty of rah rah nonsense to spin the record.

Central Michigan. Win. The first W provides a little relief. The D plays well and BC gets a few big plays from the Offense.

Virginia Tech. Loss.  BC drops another close game. The team looks more cohesive since the opener, but their record now stands at a putrid 1-5.

at Louisville. Loss.  We slow the Cardinals down, but can't pull out the upset.

at Virginia. Win. I don't think we are going 0-fer in the ACC again. This is solid road win. There is talk of another late season rally.

Florida State. Loss. This is a bad game. FSU blows us out at home.

NC State. Win. There is a lot of preseason hype around NC State, but I just have a feeling they will be a little overrated and we will play spoiler here.

UConn (at Fenway). Win. I think UConn will be terrible this year and we smash them at Fenway.

at Syracuse. Win. Everything looks good. BC controls the tempo and scoring and seems to have the Orange's offense figured out.

With this BC would finish 5-7 (3-5 in the ACC). This would be a huge problem for Jarmond. Does the strong finish and strong recruiting class earn Addazio enough goodwill to comeback one more year? I would be against it, but could see how the new AD would want to give him a chance.

Season prediction Part III: what will happen

We are about to start our fourth year with Addazio and I don't know what we have. Or maybe, I know what we have and I'm in denial. Last year dashed any hopes that I had that he might be a special coach. This year I am hoping for progress and competency. If we don't get both, then we've entered another lame duck era of BC Football.

I think this year will be okay. If you combine a good (maybe great) defense with an adequate offense and a forgiving schedule, you get to a bowl game. That's what I predict. Below is how I think it will play out. This is my prediction for the season.

What will happen

Georgia Tech. Win. We start our season with one of our toughest matchups. BC does enough well and forces some turnovers to hold onto the win.

at UMass. Win. It is never even close. BC's D holds them under 10 points.

at Virginia Tech. Loss. A tough game on the road early in the season. BC is close, but sees too many drives stall out.

Wagner. Win. All the backups get to play.

Buffalo. Win.  BC runs on them and gets a comfortable win.

Clemson. Loss. Not close. Clemson is riding high and we can't even play spoiler.

Syracuse. Win. I think Syracuse's coaching transition is going to be a little rough. BC wins easy.

at NC State. Win. This is a big one and gets people excited that maybe Addazio is getting over the hump.

Louisville. Loss. BC keeps it close, but cannot win.

at Florida State. Loss. In almost the same gameplan as Louisville, Addazio attempts to grind it out but BC cannot score enough.

UConn. Loss. This is a classic BC WTF and kills much of Addazio's goodwill. At this point we realize he's more TOB than he will ever be Urban Meyer.

at Wake Forest. Win. We rally back from the UConn loss, but there is still a bad taste in everyone's mouth.

Finishing 7-5 (4-4 in the ACC) puts BC in a bowl. But no one wants us. We end up in Detroit and play Minnesota. BC wins and Addazio records his first bowl victory and his best season at the Heights, yet it all feels real hollow.

Season Prediction Part I: worst case scenario

The closer we get to this season, the more angry I get about last year. We blew it. We wasted a once in a decade Defense and couldn't get out of our own way in multiple games. Addazio went through excuses as fast as he went through quarterbacks. Bad luck and bad bounces are part of sports, but last year went beyond being unlucky. We were not well coached or well managed. As I put together how bad things might be this season, I started to wonder what happens if we have two terrible seasons in a row. Let's hope it doesn't get to that.


As a reminder, this is not what I think will happen. This is more of a "what if." My real prediction will come later in the week.


Worst Case Scenario

Georgia Tech. Loss. There is huge risk in starting the season against Georgia Tech in a unique road game. We're not ready for their offense and it is a long flight home.

at UMass. Win. This is technically a road game, but the closeness and the opponent make for a nice bounce back after the rough start to the season.

at Virginia Tech. Loss. The Hokies are entering a period of uncertainty, but I still think they have more talent than BC and I still think Lane Stadium will be a tough place to play.

Wagner. Win. Another soft game to pad the stats and the W-L record.

Buffalo. Win. They're more respectable than Wagner, but even in a bad year I can't see BC losing this game.

Clemson. Loss. It will be a national game on campus against a probable Top 2 team. In a bad season they crush us by 28.

Syracuse. Loss. I think 'Cuse will be a mess this year too, but in a bad season I could see BC screwing this one up. If the season does play out like this, morale will be incredibly low at this point.

at NC State. Loss. The Offense still struggles and we now have a QB controversy...again.

Louisville. Loss. It is a defensive slog like last year. It is a loss like last year.

at Florida State. Loss. We play them close again, but there is no way we are winning this one.

UConn. Win. The losing streak ends. But no one feels great about where things stand.

at Wake Forest. Loss. Addazio is still unable to end the ACC losing streak.

This would leave BC 4-8 (0-8 in the ACC). What gets me worked up is that I could see Addazio surviving this sort of terrible season. No other Power 5 team would let a coach go 0-16 in conference over two years, but I think BC is in a weird position. I think Bates is tied to Addazio. I think some around the decision will think that part of the problem is never letting a coach hang around long enough to get a full roster. If it does get this bad, I will be banging the drum as loud as possible (not that it means anything). I don't think it will get this bad, but after last year I can't count on anything.

Low expectations for Basketball coming out of ACC Media Days

I have some hope for BC's young basketball roster. The rest of the conference does not. The collected ACC Media voted BC last in their preseason conference poll at the ACC Media Days. The vote wasn't even close. BC was last by a wide margin. But look at those other teams near the bottom (Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech). Why can't BC finish ahead of them?

BC also failed to garner any votes for the various preseason all conference teams and preseason award winners. Given how many minutes all the freshmen will play, someone is likely to earn some all freshman honors.

Nothing Christian nor our player representative Dennis Clifford and Eli Carter said made headlines. I do take solace in Christian saying this year's team is more talented than last year. That's a big statement considering he no longer has Hanlan. I hope he's right and if he is BC will certainly surprise people.

The biggest news out of the media event was the absence of Rick Pitino. College Sports is filled with plenty of hypocrites and jerks, but Pitino is in a class by himself.

Season Prediction Part III: what will happen

Given what I read and who I talk to, I think I am more optimistic about this team than most. Youth will cause problems, but in college football more and more, we find that great players are great early. The late bloomers round out your team, but they are not the true difference maker. That's the case at Alabama and it even holds true for BC. So despite the age, I think talent will prevail. Plus I think the schedule sets up a transition year very well. Our first two games are perfect opportunities to work out any growing pains. We get Florida State and Virginia Tech (two teams Addazio has played well) at home. We get Wake at home. We get NC State at home. Notre Dame is basically a home game. It won't be a cake walk, but this is manageable.

My biggest concern is what happens when the team gets into a shoot out. I think we can and will grind it out with anyone, but with a raw QB, can we score in bunches? That is what will determine the season. But overall, I think this will be a good year. Other than injuries, I fear a QB controversy. If Wade isn't the guy, how will Addazio manage it all. Let's hope it doesn't get to that. 

Here are my official predictions for the season.


What Will Happen


Maine. Win. Easy warm up and the backups get to play for long stretches in the second half.

Howard. Win. It is not close nor really that entertaining, but the W helps.

Florida State. Loss. I hate moral victories but people will feel good after this close game. Wade looks pretty good against legitimate competition.

Northern Illinois. Win. This is the first real barometer for how the season will play out. BC doesn't look great but still scraps to a win.

at Duke. Win. This Duke team is not as good as some of their recent squads and BC pulls out a huge road win.

Wake Forest. Win. Closer than we want, but the defense makes a few big plays late to close out the game.

at Clemson. Loss. In every scenario, I see this as a loss. Who knows? Maybe with Chad Morris gone, the Clemson Offense falls apart. As much as I want that to happen, I just don't think this is the year we take them down.

at Louisville. Loss. This is the toughest part of the schedule. Petrino is a jerk, but he's a good coach. We don't win.

Virginia Tech. Win. This is like the Northern Illinois game. After facing Clemson and Louisville, how we come out in this game will tell you a lot about the team's heart and motivation. I like to believe that we will win.

NC State. Win. I think our defense will be tough at home and late in the season.

Notre Dame (neutral). Loss. This is a tough one to call a loss, but I think their offense will be one of those that puts up a lot of points.

at Syracuse. Win. I think that Syracuse's season will be over at this point and they will sleep walk through this game.

That would leave BC at 8-4 (5-3 in the ACC). Not good enough to win the division nor demand a premium bowl. I think BC falls to the Military Bowl and faces Addazio's old Temple team. We win a low-scoring affair and finish 9-4. If this happens, I think it will be a sign that the future is bright under Addazio.