Wednesday, August 31, 2016

Season prediction Part III: what will happen

We are about to start our fourth year with Addazio and I don't know what we have. Or maybe, I know what we have and I'm in denial. Last year dashed any hopes that I had that he might be a special coach. This year I am hoping for progress and competency. If we don't get both, then we've entered another lame duck era of BC Football.

I think this year will be okay. If you combine a good (maybe great) defense with an adequate offense and a forgiving schedule, you get to a bowl game. That's what I predict. Below is how I think it will play out. This is my prediction for the season.

What will happen

Georgia Tech. Win. We start our season with one of our toughest matchups. BC does enough well and forces some turnovers to hold onto the win.

at UMass. Win. It is never even close. BC's D holds them under 10 points.

at Virginia Tech. Loss. A tough game on the road early in the season. BC is close, but sees too many drives stall out.

Wagner. Win. All the backups get to play.

Buffalo. Win.  BC runs on them and gets a comfortable win.

Clemson. Loss. Not close. Clemson is riding high and we can't even play spoiler.

Syracuse. Win. I think Syracuse's coaching transition is going to be a little rough. BC wins easy.

at NC State. Win. This is a big one and gets people excited that maybe Addazio is getting over the hump.

Louisville. Loss. BC keeps it close, but cannot win.

at Florida State. Loss. In almost the same gameplan as Louisville, Addazio attempts to grind it out but BC cannot score enough.

UConn. Loss. This is a classic BC WTF and kills much of Addazio's goodwill. At this point we realize he's more TOB than he will ever be Urban Meyer.

at Wake Forest. Win. We rally back from the UConn loss, but there is still a bad taste in everyone's mouth.

Finishing 7-5 (4-4 in the ACC) puts BC in a bowl. But no one wants us. We end up in Detroit and play Minnesota. BC wins and Addazio records his first bowl victory and his best season at the Heights, yet it all feels real hollow.

34 comments:

SaturdaysOnShea said...

ATL makes an important comparison to TOB's classic "WTF losses." Daz has had similar losses in his first two years (can't count last year because I spent the whole season going WTF?) Syracuse in 2013 and Colorado State in 2014 were both 3 point losses at the last second which prevented BC from having otherwise memorable seasons and still leave a bad taste in many mouths, mine included.

Hopefully that doesn't happen this year. The difference between 7-5 and 8-4 this year is huge. 7-5 will feel a bit hollow, 8-4 and I think we can point to some real progress.

Hario said...

7-5 will not feel like progress. With the given schedule an 8 win season is necessary to really think the program is progressing towards something. 7-5 with a loss to Uconn and im not sure Daz will ever break the 7 win ceiling or get BC to be a top 25 team.

EL MIZ said...

Saturdays - i'd consider the Penn State loss maybe not on the WTF level but certainly very disappointing, and on Addazio because the extra points were an issue all year long and never rectified.

Hario - agree, 7 RS wins would be underwhelming with 4 must-win OOC games.

the bigger question - how long of an extension does Addazio get for going 7-5 and winning a bowl game? does Bates name Alumni after him?

mod34b said...

we will see soon

Daz still has not named a QB... what is his problem??... pull the trigger Daz. Make a decision.

our OL is inexperienced and untested. It was not good in spring ball and the reports from Daz on Summer camp as to OL were not enthusiastic. The OL is the core. Clock management by O impacts the D. Scoring dictates strategy. if the OL can't pass block, we are back to 9-in-the-box football, followed by run-run-run-punt or run-run-incomplete-punt.

Punting? Kicking? are we good?? another unknown. Can we kick a 40 yard FG with consistency? Mike Knoll is starting at punter over graduate transfer and punting specialist Satchel Ziffler . Knoll has never punted in the past 2 seasons.

I am thinking 6-6 would actually be a success for Daz, and then we shall have, unfortunately, more Daz. of course, I would not be satisfied with 6-6 and 2-6 in ACC play, but that might be the Daz ceiling this year

Tim said...

Every BC coach has brought his share of WTF losses.
In 2007, Jags and his #2 ranked team lost at home to a very mediocre FSU team (FSU finished 7-6 that year). The next week, Jags lost to Maryland (Maryland finished 6-7 that year). Those back-to-back WTF losses prevented BC from qualifying for an at-large BCS berth.
In 1993, Coughlin's loaded BC team lost to a terrible Northwestern team. BC finished that season ranked #13 in the country and Northwestern finished 2-9.

knucklehead said...

More TOB than Urban MEyer? What the fuck does that mean? Addazzio is now where close to TOB. Urban Meyer, give me a fucking break.

knucklehead said...

5 wins. Two are UMass and Wagner. Other three could happen anytime or anywhere with this crew.

knucklehead said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
SaturdaysOnShea said...

My guess is he hasn't named a quarterback for gamesmanship. Both are different types of quarterback and it forces GT to be prepared for both. If it is NOT gamesmanship and he really can't pick who to start, well then we're in trouble.

ATL's TOB comparison is a fair one. I think Daz's first two years are a better indication of his abilities than last year.

Georgia Eagle said...

7-5 is disappointing, given the soft schedule. Worse, it ensures Daz's return. Anything less than 7-5 is a disaster and this incompetent clown must get the boot.

mod34b said...

SOS -- Why? "I think Daz's first two years are a better indication of his abilities than last year"

his first two years were with Spaz's players and without his system being fully implemented. How can the first two year be a better indication than the last year. Sounds like you just like his early .500 results better than the shit results form last year.

Why are people, like you SoS, so willing to give Daz a pass. Guy makes nearly $3,000,000 a year and went 0-8 in ACC. That indicates something much more than bad luck - like _ Bad planning, bad recruiting, bad offensive plan, bad play selection, bad training, bad coaches, bad coaching, bad kicking etc.

Sadly, SOS, 2015 is what Daz is. As Parcell said, you are what your record says you are. In Daz's case his record says he sucks donkey balls. and he does.

mod34b said...

Daz is not in TOB league. Not even close.

Ask yourself this: can you even conceive of Daz having a Top 20 team in years 4, 5 or 6 of his tenure? I can't

Kash86 said...

i don't see anyway that BC loses that Yukon game. For as bad as BC was offensively last season, Yukon was, on a total offense basis, 2 spots better. I could see a loss to Wake as much more likely than Connecticut.

EL MIZ said...

TOB's first 3 years at BC: 16-18 (10-11)
Addazio's first 3 years at BC: 17-21 (8-16)

advantage: TOB, especially when factoring in (a) conference record with (b) TOB trending upward in year 3 versus Addazio's complete unraveling.

TOB never showed any emotion at all and that bothered many (including me, i'll admit). it is the classic "be careful what you wish for" scenario, as Addazio completely unravels in basically every single game. lowlights include:
- in the Penn State bowl game Addazio smacked a ref with the back of his hand (https://vine.co/v/OH23nIAwiZW)
- in the Notre Dame game with our offense struggling to do anything all season, Addazio gets a 15-yard unsportsmanlike penalty for his incessant whining on a 3rd and 6 with 1 minute to play in the 3rd quarter. an embarrassment to have that happen in the season's biggest game on national television.

advantage TOB

O'Brien for his career was 115-80. Daz would need to go 85-48 to match that from where he currently is (30-32). going 85-48 would mean an average season of 8-4 over each of the next 11 seasons. hard to believe.

it is funny the shade thrown at TOB here and elsewhere in the BC universe. he was a stubborn guy (his biggest resume stain is probably booting russell wilson to start the Glennon kid) and not a lot of personality but he won and represented himself and BC well. BC not opening up the wallet for him and then subsequently paying severance to Spaz and opening up the wallet for Addazio is...interesting.

i am hopeful for the school's sake Addazio can figure out how to delegate (boy oh boy do we miss former Mod whipping boy Ryan Day) and control himself on the sideline. unlike Mod and others i think Addazio has improved the talent level (Landry, Strachan, Hilliman have all-ACC ability) and generally "gets it" (players are graduating, represents the school off the field well, nobody's getting in trouble, etc)

mod34b said...

improved talent compared to what?

Not TOB, Not Flutie years, Not Jags years, not Coughlin years....

accepting Rivals as an appropriate baseline for comparison purposes, even Spaz has out recruited Daz.

and you do know that as of today, Daz is last in the ACC in recruiting per rivals and also has the lowest avg starts per player in ACC. In fact, Daz has the second lowest avg stars in all of P5. How is that good recruiting?

JBQ said...

@El Miz: Good comment but you have to remember the context of just why TOB was brought in in the first place. Dan "Chad" Henning couldn't escape the gambling fiasco and BC wanted a disciplinarian. By the way, Kevin Pendergast was the kicker for ND '93. He went to jail for fixing Northwestern basketball games. Dan Henning came in after TC for three years. Thirteen BC players were indicted for shaving points with at least two betting against their own team. It is stated that BC "was loaded in '93". Gordan missed a field goal against Northwestern at the gun to be sure. However, they should have blown out NW. Could there have been a connection? The go between with the gamblers in '96 was Kevin Pendergast.

Napolean Bonaparte said...

Well - putting aside all the pros and cons re Daz - the season is upon us and most will be on the same page if he can't win all of his OOC games and at least go .500 in the conference. I really don't know what to expect until I see the OL. Have to believe the D will be decent if they aren't on the field the whole game. And while I may not blame Daz for everything - there really is a problem if he cannot cobble together 6 kids who can block at an ACC level.

SaturdaysOnShea said...

Mod, it's clear that you dislike Daz. Why so much disdain?

YOu mention that Daz's first two years he succeeded with Spaz's players. Then how come Spaz could not produce the same results with the same personnel? (I have asked the same question of people who dislike Jagz - he did what TOB could not with TOB's players).

Your anti-Daz schtick is tiresome. One bad season and you are prepared to cast him aside. For what? Spaz produced diminishing returns season after season after season. Daz has had one bad season in three. Which points to better abilities than not. Does he need to reel in the sideline antics? Yes. Does he need to be more hands off the offense? Yes. Does he need better clock management? Yes. But out of the sample size we have, he seems to be a better coach than not.

This season will be very telling of what we ultimately have. But please stop being so negative about the guy.

SaturdaysOnShea said...

And Tom O'Brien is a POG

Hoib said...

Nappy

As usual the voice of reason.

As to Daz popping his cork sometimes, well he's a firery guy. The best coach we've had since I've been watching BC, TC was too, just ask Kiwi.

Hoib said...

SOS

I learned something, didn't know what POG was. I disagree w/ your assessment of TOB. I think he was a pretty good coach, certainly by BC standards. His record speaks for itself. Now I think one thing needs to be taken into consideration when comparing Daz To him. TOB faced a much weaker level of competition. We have 3 top 20 preseason teams on our schedule. TOB played against a BE that was Miami and the 7 dwarfs, plus the ACC was down, when we got there, w/ the decline of Miami, and the late Bowden years at FSU, Clemson was in a low period as well. I'll always have a soft spot for TOB though, because he regularly kicked the shit out of the fighting frauds.

Big Jack Krack said...

I'm on my way to Dublin.

Go BC - beat GT in the rain.

mod34b said...

What's a POG and why is TOB a POG ?

SoS. I find your posts tiresome and clueless

mod34b said...

hoib - in TOB years, BC played against Miami, but also excellent VT, WVa, Pitt, and ND teams. PSU teams too .

in 2002, BC played #1 Miami, #4 ND and #4 Vt; in 2003 BC played #2 Miami, #12 VT, #25 Pitt, An excellent WVA team, ND and PSU.

You could just as easily say the ACC is Clemson, FSU and 10 also-rans. A fair argument can be made that BC's competition under TOb was tougher than Daz's competition . Certainly BC football was in far better shape under TOB than Daz.

NEDofSavinHill said...

TOB was a great coach. Eight straight bowl wins. Six straight over ND. Jags teams were all TOB's recruits. Ryan, Herzlich, Raji, Cherilius etc. TOB's last two year were 19 wins. Jags had twenty in two year with TOB's guys. 39 victories over four years. Averaging ten wins a year is not a good record? Daz is averaging five. So far there is no comparison. Ten wins is a great success. Five is a failure. Anyone one who thinks stoicism on the sidelines is a negative never saw Wooden ( UCLA) Stevens( Celtics) or York coach. ATL. You are totally off base on the TOB comment and the Flutie remark the other day. Don't re write history. Unlike Meyer TOB won at a quality academic school and did it without the criminal element. 2.BJK. Hope you enjoy your trip and bring BC some luck in Ireland. BC should beat UMass., Wagner and Buffalo. If they can split GT and VT they can be facing Clemson at 4-1 with their destiny in their own hands. A win Saturday assures a $-1 record at leasr.

SaturdaysOnShea said...

Mod, POG is an acronym for "Persons Other than Grunt." It is a term of derision/endearment (depending on context) used by Marine infantrymen to refer to non-infantry types.

I find your posts tiresome and clueless as well. Glad we have found some common ground.

Hoib, I think your analysis of TOB is a good one. I had two years of TOB and two years of Jagz. TOB left after my sophomore year and so there were hard feelings on campus during that time which taints his legacy for me. I appreciate his early history, bringing BC back to respectability and regularly beating Notre Dame.

NEDofSavinHill said...

4-1 record

Kash86 said...

The fact that you think the talent level was better under Spaziani than under Addazio is exactley why nothing you say can be taken seriously. Spaziani couldn't even grasp the concept of filling a recruiting class. BC was essentially recruiting as if they were on a PSU type of suspension from a numbers standpoint because Spaz was so incompetent

Hoib said...

SOS

When Jags was here I tended to give him some credit for those 2 years. TOB's biggest weakness was as a game day coach. He overcame that by being such a strong program builder. Jags was good on game day. When he left us he was a young man w/ a top reputation, but he accomplished absolutely nothing since. If he had talent, it would have shown up by now. So looking back now I tend to give more credit to TOB for Jags' teams.

SaturdaysOnShea said...

Hoib,

Truth be told, the credit probably lies most with Steve Logan as OC. It is tough to say if Matt Ryan would have become what we know today if not for Logan. And his ability to bring us back to the ACCCG with Chris Crane and two freshmen running backs is also remarkable.

Credit goes to TOB for constructing the team, credit to Jagz for helping them realize their potential. Unfortunately we will never know of Jagz ability to construct a roster.

What frustrates me most is that the two Jagz years showed the type of potential those TOB's teams had. If TOB had had more of the gameday qualities of Jagz (and perhaps Bible some of Logan's qualities) the early-aughts could have been a true golden era of BC football (more than just bowl streaks and wins over ND, perhaps conference titles and BCS berths).

mod34b said...

kash you are repeating yourself. thanks for skipping the usual abusive remarks.

tell me again how good Daz is at recruiting for 2016 and 2017 classes when Daz is last in the ACC each year and has the lowest 'avg star" for each class. among the lowest in P5 land..

you think its good work by Daz to be last 2 years in a row?

But off course, i have check on the Kash excuse index:

1. All recruiting ranking sites are 100% subjective and of no value. These sites promote "lazy analysis"
2. Even if the sites had some value, there is a definite bias against P5 recruits from New england. They always get lower rankings than other regions of the country
3, There is bias against BC. If BC pick up a 2* , he probably stays a 2*, but if he went elsewhere he is a 3 * the sites specifically disrespect BC.
4. Daz is not insane and full of shit. He is credible and realistic
5. It takes 5 or 6 season to really get the class spacing and recruiting set right. you really can not expect overnight success.. for example if a coach is only in his 4th or 5th season, your should not put pressure on him, even if he makes $3,000,000 year
6. If you are a poster on EO and talking about every move of recruits on twitter etc., then you know more than the poor schmucks of ATL.
7. If a BC beats out only Ivy league and Mac schools for a recruit that tells you nothing about the calibre of the player. The big guys just missed on this "diamond" in the rough
8. Recruiting 2 or 3 possible UDFA-NFL types in 4 years makes a recruiting program a success. Does not matter if all the other guys could not start at Newton South.
9. Ignoring a glaring Ol problem for 2 years is no big deal
10. Offering 100 OL recruits over 2 year offers and only reeling in 2 OL is not indicative of poor recruiting, Just bad luck, it happens

anything else?

Hoib said...

SOS

We're on the same page

Knucklehead said...

Steve Logan did what Addazio is trying to do. Set an offensive strategy that is effective based on what your players are good at. When he had Ryan it was play action and diagonal throw backs. With Chris Crane it QB option.

The difference between Logan and Addazio is the talent level of the players(leaving Jags off because he did not contribute anything to X's and O's). Granted Logans players were more mature, age-wise.

Hario said...

The argument for Daz improving talent here ins't very good. I would say the team seems to have more speed now than it did in recent memory but that is about it.


Daz being bad at recruiting doesnt = Spaz was good at recruiting.