Monday, August 28, 2017

[UPDATED] Season Prediction Part III: what will happen

[Thanks to all those who pointed out the problem in my W-L math. My mistake. I apologize. I had different drafts. I still think we go 8-5 (3-5) in the ACC. The Notre Dame game has been corrected to a win.]

This is Addazio's team now. All the players are his recruits. He's created a staff of loyal colleagues. He has an AD ready to support him and he has a great recruiting tool in the new Indoor Practice Facility. Whatever he accomplishes this year is probably as good as it is going to ever get at for him at BC. I am not predicting a breakthrough. I think it will be just more of the same.

This will serve as my official prediction for the season.

at Northern Illinois. Win. The team doesn't look great, but Addazio is lucky that our D matches up well with their offense. Low-scoring, ugly win.

Wake Forest. Win. I know the games have been even the past few years, but I think this year BC's talent advantage makes it a fairly comfortable game.

Notre Dame. Win. This game will help make or break the season. If Addazio wins, we start 3-0 and have the fan base pumped. If we lose, it will feel like the same old, same old. I think we win but he disappoints later.

at Clemson. Loss. Closer than last year but not close enough. Instead of playing to win, we play conservatively and it costs us.

Central Michigan. Win. A good overall win as the team plays well in all aspects of the game.

Virginia Tech. Loss. This is the rough part of the schedule. I think many fans start to lose hope during this stretch.

at Louisville. Loss. I think we will be due for a blowout at some point. I predict it will be Louisville who kills us.

at Virginia. Win. It stops the bleeding and feels like a decent road win.

Florida State. Loss. I think this will be a real heartbreaker. We lead throughout but blow it late.

NC State. Win. I am on record as thinking NC State is ridiculously overrated. I think we handle them.

UConn (at Fenway). Win. I think this is one of those games where we make their Offense look incapable of scoring.

at Syracuse. Loss. I think Addazio will trip up against one of our peer programs. I think it will be Syracuse just to make the season that much more frustrating.

This leaves BC 7-5 (3-5 in the ACC). BC goes to the St. Petersburg Bowl and plays USF. Although it is a quasi-home game for them, we dominate and finish 8-5. It is not another 7-6 season, but it will sure feel like it.


Matt said...

So you're saying we go 6-6 regular season?

skip12 said...

Regular Season would be 6-6 (3-5 ACC) and time to Fire Daz!

Bravesbill said...

6-6 is going to buy Daz another year unfortunately. Daz is only gone if this season turns out to be a disaster.

EL MIZ said...

Daz is signed for 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020. i fear that ATL's "what will happen" plays out will bring back Daz for another year, if only because it will save BC $2+MM

Geezer eagle said...

Ever to be mediocre. Sadly, I think another 6-6 season is about right. Just like hurricane Harvey, Daz keeps hanging around.

eagletix said...

Can we then acknowledge that .500 is about Addazio's ceiling? It may fluctuate one game here or there based on the schedule one year to the next, but we are who we are, at this point.

UU last row said...

I think a wildcard for this season is an entirely unexpected breakout performance by a offensive skill player. QB or RB who makes the team not just balanced offensively, but a skill player that opens up opportunities for the other aspects of the offense. 8 or 9 wins is going to need somebody on the offense to have a breakout year.

bceagle93 said...

Unless we go worse than 5-7, pretty sure Daz is here through 2019. Jaramond not likely to replace both basketball and football coaches in same year, and Christian is squarely in firing line.

Even with an ND upset, I think it is going to be very difficult to get the fan base "pumped" at this point, ATL. The two things that will get people back in the fold are: 1) better gameday experience and 2) more consistent chances to be in ACC Championship.

modest34b said...

ATl, you last para is wrong. BC not going 7-5 in your analysis but 6-6. So that is probably why 8-5 feels like 7-6 because it is actually 7-6

per ATL,

We beat the chumps -- N Ill, C Mich and U Conn
We beat three Meh ACC teams: UVa, WF and NCSU but lose to Syr

we lose to all 5 quality opponents

I do not see us beating NCSU.

Daz will get $2.3M eper year in 2018, 19 AND 20 ( thanks Brad). that = $6.9 million

if BC replaces Daz , they probably need to pay that person more than Daz. Say is $3M (extra 700k). that makes the 'cost' of dumping Daz $9,000,000 Unless Daz is at 4-8 (with massive embarrassing loses) or worse, I think he stays, and that sucks.

JBQ said...

@bceagle93: I believe that you have all your ducks in a row. The game Friday will be the "telltale heart" and how much bleeding there will be. It looks like continued mediocrity. The Dazzler is "building character" and at the same time, the U will save 2.6M.

NYCEagle said...

If we fire Addazio now what happens to his recruiting class? Doubtful any of the 5 or 6 high level 3/4 star recruits that have committed remain. I understand the frustration over Addazio but firing him now just puts the program in another tailspin. Who do we think is walking through the door to take over a bottom tier ACC level team with an arguably worse roster (minus this years seniors and losing the majority of the incoming class)

Unknown said...

I don't think BC will lose to Syracuse again, they've lost a few games in a row already. BC is due for a win against Syracuse.

Unknown said...

If BC keeps losing, who cares about the good recruiting class at this point if he can't get them to play well on the field.

NEDofSavinHill said...

Daz should be canned if all he can produce is six wins. He would have a career losing record in his five years. His buyout for being fired is probably half his salary or $3 million. BC has a two billion plus endowment. If only half of that is in the stock market index funds the portfolio has increased by almost $200 million since election day. They have plenty of money to replace a failed coach. 2. Lets hope they can far exceed their mediocre performance of the last few years. Decent QB play along with a mature o-line should result in more victories. Lets hope we see an up tempo offense with 35 passes a game. It is difficult for the QB and receivers to get into a good flow with only twenty throws a contest. It would be nice to see an offense that produces north of 200 yards per game in both the running and passing departments. Averaging twelve points per game on offense as they did last year in conference play won't produce sufficient results. 290 yards a game is a formula for a losing record. The excuses are over. It is time to produce. I'll be an optimist. NINE WINS.

CT said...

Generally, when a school fires a coach, they owe the remaining salary. Buyouts are for when coaches break the contract and leave early for another job.

knucklehead said...

Is it six wins or seven wins in the regular season?

There has been too much $$ and personnel invested in Dazzler to fire him after this season, if he beats NIU, Wake and either UVA/NC State.

6-6 will have him back next season. He can point to the recruiting class this year.

5-7 will have him back next season if we have competitive losses to ND and VT.

bceagle91 said...

Sports Illustrated actually predicted who would be in every bowl game this year. A wee bit early, no?

They have Northern Illinios, Pitt, Wake, NC State, GT, SU, GT, UNC, Miami, VT, Clemson, Louisville and FSU as ACC bowl teams. They also list Notre Dame with the ACC, but in football? No BC.

Danny Boy said...

Unfortunately, I feel like 7-5 is the ceiling this year with 6-6 being the likely scenario. Its more based on our schedule and how many of our opponents are trending.

I think this team could sneak up on someone, but frankly, I just don't see it happening to one of the big three. That means I think we either sneak one out against Virginia Tech or we handle Notre Dame (not sure if this should count as sneaking up on a team).

This also means that we're probably going to drop a game that we have no business losing. This will probably be either UVA or Cuse.

I think Jarmond was hired with a mandate to improve things. A 6-6 record won't make things clear cut, but I'm not sure it saves Addazio. There will more than likely be a number of attractive coaches available this off season, and I don't think Jarmond wants to miss the buyer's market.

Unknown said...

We must win four ACC games IF SPAZDAZIO is to keep job. This year 5 of a continuing mess
under him.

How was Bates ever given the authority to extend him?

There are several great possibilities:
Peter Carmichael BC Grad Offensive Coordinator New Orleans Saints
Ryan Day Former offensive coordinator 2014 ACC #2 Offense
Al Golden Former Miami Head Coach
Bob Bicknell Cow Boy Jack's son

JBQ said...

Predictions with a tinge of reality based on Sagarin ratings: @No. Illinois---loss, Wake Forest---close loss, Notre Dame----Big loss, @Clemson---gigantic loss, Cen Michigan---win, Virginia Tech---unacceptable loss, @Louisville----big blowout (Is he still here), @Virginia---two touchdown loss, Florida State---blowout on national tv, Nor Carolina State---two touchdown loss from a nationally ranked team, UConn---Finally a blowout like Wagner, @Syracuse---big loss and the Dazzler has been gone for awhile. (2-10)

John said...

Pretty depressing, JBQ.

Before the internet, and before blogs, the buildup to a season was more fun - usually anyway.

It's easier to be positive and optimistic at this point - just before the first game. Anticipation can be fun. If we are disappointed, it can be dealt with then.

Being disappointed before we even start doesn't make much sense to me, but then again, optimism is more my thing than many others.

If our players are as hard-working and committed as they certainly seem to be; if they are good students and generally speaking good young men, then we should be all in with them in our support.

It's as simple as that for me.

Go BC - best of luck this season!

knucklehead said...

Spread is up to -3.5. It will be up to -5 by game time.

knucklehead said...

8-5 gets Dazzler an extension.

Geezer eagle said...

Geez, JBQ, that's awfully pessimistic.

NYCEagle said...

I would bet the farm JBQ's prediction is off by 4-5 wins. The problem with basing your predictions off national media is that many of them are lazy in their analysis of the "also-rans." When was the last time BC got positive coverage from a national source? Even when we were competing for ACC titles we were always an after-thought. But good, let them sleep on us. This team knows no one is behind them (BC fans included). Every one of them should have a chip on their shoulder

JBQ said...

BC has had some real issues with ADs. All have appeared to be ADD (Attention Deficit Disorder). BB came in just in time to hire the Dazzler and then to give him that hard to believe extension. GDF came in to hire TOB and then fumble the Jags hire and then to elevate Spaz. Gladchuk hired TOB and then brought in Henning whose turmoil led to his undoing.---Jarmond is on the clock. He appears to lack experience. At Ohio State, he was responsible for creating schedules for football and that was about it. He had the right profile for Leahy.----Father Leahy appears to be sadly lacking in character evaluation. I visited the athletic department on campus on St. Patrick's Day 2015. Snow drifts were 20 feet high. I had a hand written invitation from BB to visit. He was nowhere to be seen and was "out playing golf" or in this case had a "dental appointment". I was happy to talk with Jill Hegarty.---Jill Hegarty is the boiler that makes the "little engine that could" go up to the Heights. She has experience as director of football operations. She is gracious and organized and is also evidently the wife of John Hegarty who is the director of hockey operations.---The new AD quickly made a good move. She is doing all the "nuts and bolts" as his top assistant as listed on the website. The two new hires, Williams and Fisher-Gates, are listed as deputy ADs.---Coughlin should have been consulted in some way, shape, or form. That is what he is doing with Jacksonville. He will make the decision to hire Kaepernick and advise Khan the owner.--- Coughlin is the consummate professional and a diamond mined by Boston College. He should have been brought in as interim AD. Jarmond does not have the requisite experience. He is here. So, let's see what happens with the social engineering set in motion by the red headed Jesuit.----Both Christian and Addazio are viewed as incompetent but well meaning individuals. Skinner had the knowledge and character but it was time for a change. No problem with that but Donohue and now Christian are terrible. Spaz actually deserved a shot from loyalty but then the Addazio fiasco rightfully canned BB.---Let's hope that the season goes well. However, I think that Las Vegas knows a thing or two. Jarmond better be taking notes.

BCEagles2014 said...

JBQ, no offense intended at all but how many times have we heard about your visit to the Athletic Department when BB was out at a dentist appointment? We get it. I will say Jarmond has only just started but in the small sample size we have seen, he has given us every reason to be optimistic that his tenure will be different than the previous AD's for the better. Whatever happens this season is not on Jarmond. His response, however, will be. Let's try to enjoy the bit of hope BC has given us lately and wish for the best. Go Eagles!