Monday, August 27, 2018

Season Prediction Part I: worst case scenario

Here we go again. My little preseason exercise in "what if?" There are lots of reasons to be optimistic this year, but we know things can fall apart quickly. So here is how the season might play out if nothing goes our way. Tuesday will be the what the perfect season would look like and Wednesday will be my actual predictions for the year.

UMass. Win. Brown looks rusty, but BC still runs all day on UMass.

Holy Cross. Win. Another sloppy game, but BC has enough talent to cruise.

at Wake Forest. Loss. A short week leads to major confusion. Brown still struggles and Wake loads up to stop Dillon.

at Purdue. Loss. BC can't keep up in a shootout. Suddenly the preseason hype starts turning to hot seat talk.

Temple. Win. Another game that is much closer than it should be. The Offense continues to look one dimensional, but the BC D carries the team.

at NC State. Loss. BC doesn't give up the big play and hangs for a while, but NCSU chips away on offense, controls the clock and the game.

Louisville. Loss. A game BC should win but doesn't. There are some mistakes and now a winless ACC schedule starts to seem possible.

Miami. Loss. It is a national TV and red bandanna game. BC is hyped and it is close. But mistakes hurt BC again and the passing game remains one of the worst in college football.

at Virginia Tech. Loss. Another high scoring offense pulls away from BC.

Clemson. Loss. BC plays well, but can't hold back Clemson.

at Florida State. Loss. Another ugly game. The narrative continues that BC is "playing better" but just unlucky.

SyracuseWin. Senior Day and a positive way to end a bad season.

This would leave BC at 4-8 and home for the bowl season. In my opinion it would also be time to make a head coaching change.


Big Jack Krack said...

I guess "Worst Case" is just that - and the thought stinks. So let's deal with it and move on.

However, there's no question that our ACC games are all potential losses - and also potential wins. I will put Miami and Clemson in separate categories.

These two are critical early indications. Go BC - beat both of these teams - you are experienced enough to do so.

at Wake Forest.

at Purdue.


These four games will be very interesting, and it would be great to get 3 out of 4.

at NC State.


at Virginia Tech.

at Florida State.

Final thought about Syracuse. If Dungey is healthy, he can scare anybody.

Go BC - stick this worst case into the wastebasket - the "Round File" - and use it for motivation.

One game at a time. Do your jobs, guys!!!!!

mod34b said...
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bceagle91 said...

2015 was a collective brain fart for BC football. Overall, pretty darned good.

BJK is right with Wake and Purdue being bellwethers. Winning at Wake should happen, especially with their starting QB suspended. Purdue is a weak sister in the B1G. If we go 0-2 there, we're in deep trouble and Daz is probably looking for work at the end of the season.

John said...

Fox Sports College Football analysts discussing the ACC.(Matt Leinart;Dave Wannstedt;Rob Smith Bruce Feldman etc ) All Clemson, Miami and some FSU......

Rob Smith said something to the effect "Don't sleep on BC - they have a very good, strong program there...."

Go BC - shock em this year.

John said...

Joel Klatt, Robert Smith, Bruce Feldman, Dave Wannstedt, Matt Leinart and host Rob Stone.

All Big Ten running back at OSU Rob Smith - praised Boston College!

working rich said...

But they can’t play like they did when they lost to Georgia tech in Dublin.
Winnable game
Bad loss

John said...

I was in Dublin, working rich - and it was a brutal loss - I agree.

4th down conversions cannot be allowed when there are many yards to be made. Not this year for sure.

STL_eagle said...

I think ATL developed a pretty accurate worst case scenario. It could happen but the team is likely to do better. I am interested to see his best case guess will be 10-2 with losses to Clemson and Miami. Actual will likely be 8-4 which would offer some improvement over last year and becomes 9-4 and a potential top 25 ranking with a bowl win.

Geezer eagle said...

9-4 would be acceptable and back to the standards of the O'Brien years.

Napolean Bonaparte said...

Just think happy thoughts -

mod34b said...
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Napolean Bonaparte said...

Any reactions to the two deep? See page 11 -

Knucklehead said...

The defense was 6th in ACC in points allowed. Within 1.1 points of third.

The comment at 7:47 is misleading and unnecessarily negative. It is also written by an asshole.

Knucklehead said...

There was never a positive statement made about Don Brown by the 7:47 commenter when Brown was here. Now that he is gone he is sliced bread and better than what we have now. Typical bitch comment.

BCAlum2000 said...

This worst case wont happen. As for the defense, they were good last year despite being decimated by injuries at LB and with Landry. The DL might be thin this year and there are questions at CB, but overall this should be a very good unit.

John said...

NB - reactions to two deep later.

mod34b said...
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Knucklehead said...

You have no idea what you are writing about Mod. Literally no idea.

Knucklehead said...

Offense is starting two TE's. They are going to dominate the right side of the defense with Petrula there they put the TE's next to him. Can see them go right 2-3 times and then hit a wheel off the left. Dillon will have the cut back to the left when the D overlaods the right. Not to mention that Walker and White will be 1:1 most of the time.

Napolean Bonaparte said...

Vrabel's son from Texas made it as a freshman - good genes. New faces (or relatively new) in Barlow, Emer, Berry, Sebastian, Alec Lindstrom, Carlson and Haynes. Cautiously optimistic about this team - and I only say cautiously because nearly everyone else in the ACC loads up every year with solid recruits, etc. Against the better ACC clubs we should be able to keep it
within range - so our special teams play, stability at QB and game day coaching (Addazio/Loeffler) will be important. Brown doesn't need to be the second coming - just needs to stay under control and avoid turning the ball over in our end of the field.

BCAlum2000 said...

Bleacher Report had their first of three profiles of guys who will be superstars this year;
1. Nick Busa
2. AJ Dillon
3. Ed Oliver

Think about that company. Busa and Oliver are projected #1 and #2 in next year's draft. Dillon getting a TON of hype now ...

Tim said...

Worst case scenario is Dillon gets injured Saturday and misses the season.

Knucklehead said...

Mod would genuinely enjoy that scenario.

JBQ said...

Hold your breath. Here we go.