Monday, August 29, 2016

Season Prediction Part I: worst case scenario

The closer we get to this season, the more angry I get about last year. We blew it. We wasted a once in a decade Defense and couldn't get out of our own way in multiple games. Addazio went through excuses as fast as he went through quarterbacks. Bad luck and bad bounces are part of sports, but last year went beyond being unlucky. We were not well coached or well managed. As I put together how bad things might be this season, I started to wonder what happens if we have two terrible seasons in a row. Let's hope it doesn't get to that.


As a reminder, this is not what I think will happen. This is more of a "what if." My real prediction will come later in the week.


Worst Case Scenario

Georgia Tech. Loss. There is huge risk in starting the season against Georgia Tech in a unique road game. We're not ready for their offense and it is a long flight home.

at UMass. Win. This is technically a road game, but the closeness and the opponent make for a nice bounce back after the rough start to the season.

at Virginia Tech. Loss. The Hokies are entering a period of uncertainty, but I still think they have more talent than BC and I still think Lane Stadium will be a tough place to play.

Wagner. Win. Another soft game to pad the stats and the W-L record.

Buffalo. Win. They're more respectable than Wagner, but even in a bad year I can't see BC losing this game.

Clemson. Loss. It will be a national game on campus against a probable Top 2 team. In a bad season they crush us by 28.

Syracuse. Loss. I think 'Cuse will be a mess this year too, but in a bad season I could see BC screwing this one up. If the season does play out like this, morale will be incredibly low at this point.

at NC State. Loss. The Offense still struggles and we now have a QB controversy...again.

Louisville. Loss. It is a defensive slog like last year. It is a loss like last year.

at Florida State. Loss. We play them close again, but there is no way we are winning this one.

UConn. Win. The losing streak ends. But no one feels great about where things stand.

at Wake Forest. Loss. Addazio is still unable to end the ACC losing streak.

This would leave BC 4-8 (0-8 in the ACC). What gets me worked up is that I could see Addazio surviving this sort of terrible season. No other Power 5 team would let a coach go 0-16 in conference over two years, but I think BC is in a weird position. I think Bates is tied to Addazio. I think some around the decision will think that part of the problem is never letting a coach hang around long enough to get a full roster. If it does get this bad, I will be banging the drum as loud as possible (not that it means anything). I don't think it will get this bad, but after last year I can't count on anything.

16 comments:

mod34b said...

yeesch. a 0-for is a possibility for you ATL, albeit remote.??

I can hardly imagine that again. but out of 8 ACC games, only Syr and Wake are candidates for likely wins (> 50%). NCSU and GT are toss-ups .. maybe. VT/Lville - hard games. Clem and FSU -- no way. Even UConn is no gimmee.

Georgia Eagle said...

Sunday's AJC has already picked GT in an easy win. Gives our defense credit but offensively BC can't stay up with them. Sadly,. I agree with the AJC.
Mod, your two conference win prediction looks likely.

Georgia Eagle said...

Sunday's AJC has already picked GT in an easy win. Gives our defense credit but offensively BC can't stay up with them. Sadly,. I agree with the AJC.
Mod, your two conference win prediction looks likely.

Big Jack Krack said...

Let's go, BC - get off on the right track and end this misery.

Frankly, I'm a little worried about our defensive line in terms of depth and experience.

GT will try to make our DL run out of gas for sure. One of their OT is LG Shamire Devine, 6'7", 370 (down from 395).

While I think we're in very good shape at DE with Harold Landry, Zach Allen, Kevin Kavalec, Wyatt Ray and maybe Tanner Karafa - it's the interior that concerns me. We have Truman Gutapfel, Ray Smith and Noa Merritt. We have no experience after these guys - Jack Kenny, and Freshmen Bryce Morais, Taylor Hill and Kevin Cohee.

If Gutapfel or Smith get hurt we're in big trouble. I think Addazio left a big void here in his recruiting for sure. I'm not knocking our players, but where is the class depth?

I like our DEs, LBs and DBs, but we don't appear to have enough interior DL to give these guys a blow. GT will exploit that for sure.

Go BC - beat GT. We might have to shock everyone and score 35 points. :-)

I'm heading over Thursday morning!!!!! Since I did not renew my season tickets after 42 or 43 years (thanks for scheduling Wagner after Howard, Brad - pitiful) I used that money and grabbed the Lower President's Box at Aviva Stadium - and I didn't buy them through BC either. That's how much I'm fed up with Brad Bates' scheduling.

Knucklehead said...

If we lose to Syracuse and Wake the head-coach ought to be fired.

Sorry BJK, All that is the strength of the team and of ZERO concern. The offensive line needs to prove itself across the board. If this comes down to a kick on outside I don't like our chances.

O-line and kicking is horrendous.

Big Jack Krack said...

Agree completely about the offense, Knucklehead - just worried a little about the DL interior depth. I hope they can get a bunch of 3 and outs and/or short drives by GT.

Knucklehead said...

Paul Johnson is a dirty chainsmoking son of a bitch. Their cut blocks, under his direction, can be nasty.

If we lose Landry or Gutapfel we are in serious trouble.

Wojack(spelling) was a tough kid. He will be missed.

EL MIZ said...

"Bates is tied to Addazio" - who cares? if BC goes winless again, Bates is toast, as is Addazio. don't forget - Bates contract is up. there will be nothing holding us to him. Addazio we'll have to buy out (again). still makes me chuckle that Christian got an extension after going winless in the conference. truly remarkable!

i think the Worst Case scenario should have a Loss to UConn. that would be the cherry on top of the sundae.

the interior DL does appear to be a weakness, another fail of the Addazio recruiting regime. even more jarring is we do not have any DT committed for next season. very odd.

when does the 2-deep come out? i would assume an OL or two is going to flip to that side of the line, but nothing would surprise me with Addazio.

Eagle Esquire said...

Really hope we pull this out. My girlfriend's family is loaded with GT fans. Would not hear the end of it if we drop this one.

eagleboston said...

Those of you who have read my posts over the years know that I am far from an optimist when it comes to BC football. However, I just have a weird feeling about this season. I'm predicting 8 wins as the college football gods balance things out with the defense still strong, the offense significantly better, and the in-game strategy much improved (no more blowing 3rd quarter timeouts in close games). Plus, I can't take the negativity and depression of yet another worst-case scenario season.

Hoib said...

@The precedent has been set by JC, if he goes ofer he gets an extension.@

mod34b said...

Daz (an exaggerating salesman) yesterday on the OL. Was this the best face he could put on things?? Not inspiring confidence

"I think that, obviously, we can throw the football. We can do things on offense that, once (Darius) Wade got hurt last year, it became very difficult for us. I think the only thing that hurt us a little bit at training camp at one point was that we were down a couple of offensive lineman at the end. It took the consistency out for us, but they're back and ready to go. I thought maybe at one point we were accelerating pretty good, but then we leveled off a little bit, but that will come. . . . . Offense takes more time with rhythm and timing and things like that"

jay said...

Mark Schlabach thinks we go winless in the ACC again.

http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/17398203/2016-predictions-power-5-conferences-college-football-playoff

Bravesbill said...

This worst case scenario sounds very much like the actual outcome of the BC season. I'll predict 5 wins but a waiver bowl berth for shits and giggles.

James Doherty said...

After today in Dublin, we are looking at worse than worst case. 0 for ACC and a loss to UConn - a team that should never have been on the schedule. Maybe Daz gets fired right after. My "best case."

James Doherty said...

After today in Dublin, we are looking at worse than worst case. 0 for ACC and a loss to UConn - a team that should never have been on the schedule. Maybe Daz gets fired right after. My "best case."