Addazio vs BC's actual history

Addazio referenced winning historically at BC and mentioned 6.5 wins per year since 1980. That's a misleading stat since the college football season has expanded gradually from 11 games, to 11 plus regular bowls, to 12 plus regular bowls. In my opinion, it is probably better to measure Addazio's body of work using winning percentage. Right now he sits at .500. And to me that feels like the sort of coach he is. But I feel like BC can be more and that history is not told through 6.5 wins per year, but through what a variety of coaches have done at the school under varied circumstances. Take a look:

Winning Percentage
Boston College All-Time: .560

Boston College Since DIA-DIAA Split: .538

Boston College Since joining a conference: .557

Boston College Since joining ACC: .547

Addazio: .500

Winning Percentage by Coach
Frank Leahy: 909
Jeff Jagodzinski: .714
Joseph Yukica: .648
Gilmour Dobie: .639
Tom O'Brien: .625
Frank Cavanaugh: .625
Mike Holovak: .623
Tom Coughlin: .614
Jim Miller: .586
Denny Myers: .561
Jack Bicknell: .517
Steve Addazio: .500
Moody Sarno: .500
Dan Henning: .458
Frank Spaziani: .431
Ernest Hefferle: .375
Ed Chlebek: .364

Conference Winning Percentage
Jagodzinski (ACC): .687

O'Brien (ACC): .625

Coughlin (Big East): .559

O'Brien (total): .521

O'Brien (Big East): .490
Henning (Big East): 452
Spaziani (ACC): .406
Addazio (ACC): .375

Winning Seasons
Yukica: 9
O'Brien: 8
Holovak: 7
Addazio: 5
Bicknell: 4

Miller: 4

Spaziani:2
Jagodzinski: 2
Coughlin: 2
Henning: 1

Comparing BC coaches through first five years

You will hear a lot about Addazio's accomplishments in the following weeks, as I assume BC will extend his contract. College Football requires a bit of puffery to keep the recruits coming and the media paying attention. But to BC fans it will feel empty because so many of the accomplishments -- seven win seasons, four bowl games -- are a product of modern college football. The reality is that when you compare him to other BC coaches who have lasted as long at BC, Addazio's accomplishments are similar to his predecessors. And more frustrating, he has not had a real outlying 'high' season, while still having a 'low' season. Take a look.

Here are BC coaches since WWII through their first five consecutive seasons. (I excluded Myers interrupted tenure.) [CLICK TO ENLARGE GRAPHES.]

As you can see, when looking at wins only, Addazio starts and finishes better than most, but doesn't have that one break through season. But it is easier to win seven games when you play 13. Now let's look at the same group of coaches' winning percentages.

The path of Addazio's line on the chart remains the same, but how it compares to others looks a little less impressive. He's now squarely in the middle.

But what about the modern era of scholarship limitations, the FBS/FCS split, TV games, etc? How does Addazio compare to guys like Bicknell and TOB? Take a look.

Once again, Addazio falls into the middle. But I would argue that his first five years are more frustrating because he showed neither the progress of TOB nor the lightning in a bottle moments of Bicknell's early years.

But beyond graphs, here are the simple records of Bicknell, TOB and Addazio through their first five years.

Bicknell --- 36-22-1 (Wn Pct .619)
TOB -- 31-27 (Wn Pct .534)
Addazio -- 31-33 (Win Pct .484)

What do I conclude? Addazio is an average coaching producing slightly below BC's historic norms. He's not special and doesn't seem like the type of guy who will ever break through or capture a special year. He's certainly better than the likes of Henning or Spaz, but the longer he's here the more he seems like TOB.

None of this is fireable. What we don't know is what Martin Jarmond's expectations are. His job gets harder if Addazio keeps winning seven without ever showing signs of anything more.

I will explore this theme throughout the offseason. But after five years, I think it is safe to say we know what we are getting in Addazio and I don't think anyone is excited about it.