Now what?

Before I start, as a reminder, this will be a decision between Martin Jarmond and Father Leahy. Everything you hear or read on twitter or message boards is gossip or speculation. I don't know what Jarmond is thinking. I do know that he does have to sell his decision to Father Leahy. Firing a bowl-bound coach makes a lot of sense to many of us. I have no idea if it makes sense to our president.

Here are some things that are not speculation. I think all are relevant:

-- Addazio's current deal and buyout are very manageable. 

-- Rutgers has permission to talk to Addazio, however, reports out of New Jersey say that Rutgers and Schiano are close to a deal.

-- Many agents think the job will open. 

-- Many BC staffers think a change is coming.

-- Many players think a change is coming.

Speculation from me

I think Jarmond wants to make a change. He knows the team has underachieved the past two seasons. He also knows that he will need to make a major hire for his own resume. However, the basketball situation complicates things. I don't know if Jarmond has the political capital or the desire to change both coaches in the same school year. If he is justifying a change, Christian is the easier decision (and he also has a BC-friendly buyout). 

If a change is made, it will be soon. BC won't know its bowl status for a week and is guaranteed a spot via the ACC. It doesn't need Addazio to get invited to a bowl. 

I am going to say there is a change coming but I am just guessing.

It's over

I am not breaking news, just combining speculation, rumor and my opinion. Notre Dame blowing out BC was the worst possible outcome for Addazio. He might rally the troops next week and get to a bowl, but this season has more than answered any questions about the direction of the program. It also sent a message to both the diehard and the casual fans. Addazio at his best is a seven win coach and he will never deliver those special moments when BC "shocks the world." It is time for a change.

As we know from last year, these decisions are not simple and straight forward. Could Father Leahy and/or the BOT prevent Jarmond from making a change? Of course. But I don't think there are any real financial barriers nor anyone going to bat for Addazio. It's over.

I will start coaching profiles this week.

Perspective on Addazio at BC and among his peers

Tuesday got a little heated on the BC-twittersphere after two different ESPN talking heads started defending Addazio in response to BCI's "fire Addazio" post. The ESPN crew's case for keeping Addazio was weak but the points that hit a nerve were "it is hard to win at BC, we (the fans) are taking seven wins for granted and be careful what you wish for." I spent a long time on Twitter shooting holes in that argument, but I wanted to use this post to provide more perspective.

This is Addazio's seventh season. BC has given him plenty of time to build and shape the program. There has been plenty of time to put one great season together. There have been plenty of games to learn from and adapt. He hasn't and will be very lucky to win seven this year. What he is accomplishing is not impressive when you compare it to his BC peers, his ACC peers and the other coaches hired for the 2013.


Addazio when compared to modern era BC coaches

Addazio is exactly .500 overall (43-43) which ranks fifth out of seven B.C.head coaches hired since 1981. https://t.co/Wz8gaZyblS

— Matt Hinton (@MattRHinton) November 12, 2019

Jeff Jagodzinski -- 2 seasons, .714 Winning Percentage

Tom O'Brien -- 10 seasons, .625 Winning Percentage

Tom Coughlin -- 3 seasons, .614 Winning Percentage
Jack Bicknell -- 10 seasons, .517 Winning Percentage
Steve Addazio -- 7 seasons, .500 Winning Percentage
Dan Henning -- 3 seasons, .458 Winning Percentage

Frank Spaziani -- 4 seasons, .431 Winning Percentage

ACC Coaching Tenure

Another reminder that BC has been patient with Addazio and given him plenty of time is ACC Tenure. Addazio and Dave Doeren are tied for the third most seniority in the conference. Doeren has a very similar record. Dabo obviously has an incredible record. Cutcliffe's run at Duke doesn't look great based on winning percentage, but he has been much better than his predecessors, which is something Addazio can't claim.

David Cutcliffe (12 seasons): 71-77 (ACC record 36-60)

Dabo Swinney (12 seasons): 126-30 (ACC record 75-16) 

Dave Doeren (seven seasons) : 47-39 (ACC record 21-32)

Steve Addazio (seven seasons): 43-43 (ACC record 21-34)

Coaches Hired for the 2013 Season
Finally there is the group of coaches who started at their respective jobs the same time Addazio started his time at BC. Believe it or not, 30 coaches took new FBS jobs that year. Only five still hold that same job. This is how Addazio stacks up among his peers.

Gus Malzahn: 60-29
Skip Holtz:  54-34

Dave Doeren: 47-39

Steve Addazio: 43-43 
Mark Stoops: 40-44

Once again, BC appears patient. 25 other teams who made changes entering the 2013 season have changed again. BC is still employing Addazio and he has the the second worst record of the remaining coaches (and one could argue Mark Stoops' 10-win year more than offsets for being four wins behind Addazio).

I want change. There could be an argument not to make the change, but the ESPN crew's argument that Addazio is accomplishing a lot at BC doesn't hold up historically or nationally.

Can Addazio still save his job?

While nothing has ever been said publicly, I think the consensus among those around BC Football is that Steve Addazio's seat has never been hotter. Sitting at 5-5, his odds of another winning season are not great. Plus there is a general feeling of disappointment in the losing and the excuses. While harder to measure -- because they're not vocal -- there is also a growing apathy among the fanbase.

But just because I want change doesn't mean that is guaranteed. BC, like all colleges, is very political and a big decision like this is not simple. Jarmond has a boss and his boss answers to a Board of Trustees. I think both Father Leahy and the BOT could keep Addazio around if the following happens:

1. BC beats Notre Dame and Pitt. This would leave us at 7-5 with a lot of public momentum. The casual BC fans would be ecstatic about the Notre Dame win. It would also mean Addazio would enter the bowl game with a chance at eight wins. His contract would still be favorable to BC and he has a decent recruiting class coming in. I don't see BC making the move in this situation.

2. BC wins big over Notre Dame and loses to Pitt in a close game. While this scenario would reinforce the Addazio critics' narrative, I think a resounding victory over a ranked Irish team would give him enough breathing room to lose to Pitt the next week. 6-6 would put BC in a bowl and give the team another shot at seven wins.

But those are the only two scenarios where Addazio is safe. He has to beat Notre Dame. He also cannot get blown out in either remaining game. This is speculation on my part, but the narrative paths are taking shape and the narrative is important to all the parties involved. Not all seven wins are created equal and BC's leadership needs support of the BC community. If they want people buying in on Addazio Year 8, the coach needs to pull out a big win and avoid any more embarrassments.

All Addazio's issues on display in loss to FSU

In the postgame handshake, FSU's interim Head Coach Odell Haggins could be seen and heard repeatedly telling Addazio that he "is a hellavu coach!" I can see why an old school coach would appreciate Addazio. His teams play a style that nearly all current coaches grew up playing. He is a grinder. He wears his emotion on his sleeve. And if you only pay attention to BC as you prep for the game, you might appreciate all Addazio does vs all the problems his team consistently has. For those of us who have watched Addazio up close for seven years, this game was just a microcosm of our frustrations with BC's coach.

The D is bad and not getting better. The defensive issues are talent and scheme. BC missed two field goals too. While that is beyond frustrating, Addazio's approach and management of the game related to our kicking woes was moronic. Field goals are not as valuable as perceived in general in football. Addazio should know that. There have been millions of statistical studies to confirm that. Second, field goals are historically high risk for his teams. Finally he has one of the best olines in the country. Nearly any drive in field goal territory should be considered four-down territory. Third and long? Run the ball and get it to fourth and short. Fourth and short. Run again. Even without a 100% success rate, that model will pay off more than us kicking bad field goals. 

Addazio really blew it at the end of the half when he didn't use his timeouts and purposely settled for a field goal attempt...which BC missed. 

I already want a coaching change. This loss might move a few more fans towards my opinion. We've seen everything we need to know. He is an okay head coach but so limited in his approach that he will never get BC to somewhere special. His floor and his ceiling are the same. 

The season is not over. I still think we can beat Pitt and get to a bowl. Addazio is the Houdini of the Hot Seat, so maybe he pulls off a huge upset of Notre Dame in two weeks. But it doesn't matter. He clearly is what he is and we've all seen enough.