Wednesday, April 04, 2007

Replacing offense year to year

Al has a big task ahead. He is replacing Dudley and Marshall and the lesser contributions of Haynes and Williams. While we’ve lost big contributors before, this will be the biggest hole since the team turned the corner in 2001. Just using some raw numbers (points) BC must replace 56% of its total offense. But in Al’s tenure there is no strong correlation between lost production and a change in winning percentage the following year.

YearLoss of Production
From Previous Year
Change in Winning Pct
200236%(.246)
200318%(.012)
200443% .093
200516% .127
200618%(.056)
200734% (.141)


I think Rice can really explode next year. I also think Spears, Blair and Roche can also improve their offense. But I think for us to maintain our relative success, we will need at least one of the freshman to average 15 or so points a game.

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