Monday, August 27, 2007

Season prediction Part III: what will happen

I’ve gone back and forth on this since the day TOB announced he was leaving. What would a new coach mean for this talented team? How would BC fare against such a demanding schedule? My reasons for optimism (Logan, Spaz, Matt Ryan) would then be offset by another development (our front and back loaded schedule). I’d hear or read about how good the defense was only to hear equally grim news about the offense the next day. All that is over. None of it matters Saturday as a new era begins. I think this season will be good (not as good as the best case) but enjoyable and refreshing. I’ve been pretty close with my actual predictions that past two seasons (2005 and 2006). Let’s see how this one plays out.

What will happen

Wake Forest. Win. I have the ultimate respect for Wake Forest and will never take them lightly, but I think we win comfortably this year.

NC State. Win. No doubt. Plus if we beat Wake in the opener we’ll probably move into the Top 25 and you know how TOB does against ranked teams.

At Georgia Tech. Loss. Tech’s D is very good. By the third week, you’d hope BC’s would be clicking on offense but on the road against a very good team, I have doubts.

Army. Win. Playing the service academies is always tricky, but Army is still a few years away from being good again.

UMass. Win. BC’s recent DIAA games haven’t been competitive. I don’t think that changes this year.

Bowling Green. Win. The annual MAC sacrifice continues. One of these days a MAC team is going to beat us. I don’t think it will happen this year. At 5-1, BC would be ranked again.

At Notre Dame. Win. The analysts seem pretty split on Notre Dame. I think they’ll be good but certainly beatable. We’re fortunate to play them the week before USC. I think this game will mean more to us and we come away with a win.

At Virginia Tech. Loss. I cannot see this playing out any other way. I guess it is the Blacksburg aspect that making me so pessimistic. VT was a tough home team before the tragedy. Adding that emotion to the crowd makes it that much more so. As long as we have Matt Ryan I think we can win any game, but forced to make a realistic prediction, I see a loss here.

Florida State. Win. I don’t see us losing two in a row. I also think FSU is a year or two away from being an unbeatable power again. We also need this win for divisional purposes.

At Maryland. Win. I am anticipating a down year from the Terps, so by the time we get to this game they may be mailing it in.

At Clemson. Loss. We’ve pulled off improbably wins against the Tigers in 2005 and 2006. The luck runs out here.

Miami. Win. If I am lukewarm on the Florida State makeover, put me in the skeptical column on the Miami coaching changes. I know Randy Shannon had statistically good defenses there, but to me he doesn’t represent the wholesale changes that were needed and his offensive coaching hires left me unimpressed.

A 5-3 conference record creates a very precarious bowl situation. I don’t think it gets us into an ACC championship game, therefore BCS games are eliminated. Gator and Peach/Chick Fil-a are still in play, but probably long shots. I don’t think we’re all that desirable for Orlando, so I predict we’ll fall to the Music City Bowl. Not ideal, but realistic. We’d face an SEC team (my bet is Tennessee) which would be a virtual home game for them. We win and Jags finishes his first season with a very respectable 10-3 record.


matthew2 said...

Last year you were good... the year before your predictions were unbelievable, including the bowl game...

I happen to agree with you this year as well... I can't imagine winning at VA tech, but hopefully we will get one of the other 2 (I would think maybe Clemson)

Melman said...

Going 4-1 in the division probably gets BC into the title game. BC's division is so tough I don't think any team will do better than a 5-3 record.

Willis said...

Did anyone in the Boston area get a chance to listen to the Jeff Jagodzinski Show last night on WEEI? Anything interesting come out of it?

Brian said...

Agree with melman. 4-1 in conference gets us into the ACC title game. The other 2 losses to Ga Tech and VTech don't hurt us as much since they are on the other side. I don't see anyone in the Atlantic going undefeated against teams on their side, and envision a lot of parity this year in ACC land.

I still think we can pull out a win in Clemson. Clemson is a very tough place to play, but Matty Ryan has experience playing there two years ago. When TOB sat Porter, Matt Ryan came in for the 16-13 OT upset special ...

Imagine the ACC Championship would be a rematch against VTech or Ga Tech. A loss would probably land us in Orlando over Nashville. ACC runner-up can't fall below Nashville, so I think somehow they'll get us into the bowl one higher than Music City.

Solid predictions.