Some times and scheduling stuff

A short little collection of important times and dates for Football and Basketball...

We now know the start time for the Purdue Football game this fall. It will be noon on one of the ESPN family of networks. It seems like we play less often at noon than we used to. This game is going to be a must win.

BC Basketball will play Minnesota as part of the ACC/Big Ten Challenge. The game will be at Conte. BC also added a road game at Texas A&M to the schedule.

Should BC copy USF's scheduling model?

BC's Football schedule seems pretty close to ideal. In most years, BC plays a DIAA team, a Group 5 team, a potential challenge game and maybe one elite game. As much as the DIAA game might seem like filler or not worth the typical price. it is not a popular practice. USF's AD dislikes them so much that he is not going to schedule DIAA any more. Maybe BC should consider the same thing?

The DIAA game is basically a scrimmage for BC. Since we restarted playing these teams in the early 2000s, BC hasn't lost. Nor have any of the games been close. It is not fair that BC charges the same price for those games as we do for others. BC does not learn all that much and the W does not provide much respect nor something to sell. 

BC is locked in to our current schedule for a few years. I don't think the average BC fan cares about any DIAA team, but it will be nice to play Holy Cross again. Since I doubt BC will ever be as bold as USF, I think the most we can hope for are DIAA teams that have a history with our program.

Gut reaction to BC's 2017 Football Schedule

BC and the ACC released the 2017 Football Schedule Tuesday. Many of the non-conference dates were already known. Now we know where the ACC games fall into places. Here is the schedule and below is my gut reaction:

Sept. 1  --  at Northern Illinois
Sept. 9  --   Wake Forest
Sept. 16  --   Notre Dame
Sept. 23   --   at Clemson
Sept. 30   --   Central Michigan
Oct. 7   --   Virginia Tech
Oct. 14   --   at Louisville
Oct. 21   --   at Virginia
Oct. 27   --   Florida State
Nov. 11   --   NC State
Nov. 18   --   at Connecticut (Fenway Park)
Nov. 25   --   at Syracuse

-- This is very front loaded. Even though Notre Dame is coming off of a rough season, they will be better in 2017. Wake will probably be better. BC will probably be 3-2 coming out of September and could easily be 2-3. That will dampen enthusiasm and heat up the Hot Seat talk for Addazio.

-- BC could run the table late. I don't expect Brown to be playing like a Senior come November, but you hope that by then he and the staff understand what he can and cannot do. BC could close the season with wins against NC State, UConn at Fenway and at Syracuse. It might be another bowl eligibility run like this season.

-- One of the best home games is on a Friday again. Fortunately for season ticket holders outside the Boston area, they still get to see Notre Dame and Virginia Tech on a Saturday. The Friday night games are not going away. I just wish the ACC and ESPN would use them for less desirable matchups. But they are more concerned about ratings and not ticket holder experiences.

-- We will know everything we need to know about Addazio by the BYE week. This is Year 5. This is what he has been pointing to since Day 1. Our BYE week comes during the first week in November. By then he will have played all the elite teams on the schedule. If he has not broken through with at least one of them and we need to finish 3-0 to make a bowl, then Addazio might as well be let go during BC's break.

With the ACC's recent depth and competitiveness, I don't know if you can craft a perfect schedule. This one is fine and manageable. Let's hope BC is up for it.

UConn series confirmed

The long speculated series with UConn is on the books. With that BC's 2016 schedule is basically complete (the FCS opponent is rumored to be Wagner.)

Boston College, UConn schedule home/home series; 2016 at BC, 2017 at UC, source told @ESPN. Also 2 games in 2020s. 1st reported by @blauds

— Brett McMurphy (@McMurphyESPN) October 13, 2015

Enough time has passed that BC seems ready to move on from the historical animosity with UConn. The only remaining figure in the drama is Father Leahy and I doubt old lawsuits are keeping him up at night.

For those who are disappointed that BC did not schedule a bigger potential opponent, what did you really expect at this point? Bates and Addazio are scheduling wins and this one has the bonus of being cheap and easily spun. They can tell the media and fans they are trying to build New England football.

I don't hate the game. We have to play someone and if we are not playing anyone interesting, we might as well play someone close.

Which FCS teams should BC play?

Playing an FCS team is a necessary evil of big time college football. The financial incentives are too strong not to play one. It is also nothing new for BC fans as we played Holy Cross long after they stopped giving scholarships and we instituted the "good for New England" game early in TOB's tenure. The problem of late is the type of FCS team we are playing. You can mask some games under the guise of geography or history, but the Weber States of the world are not going to fool or excite the most passionate BC fan. There are only a handful of FCS schools BC should play and I've grouped them for this purpose into two categories.

Regional games

Maine

New Hampshire

Rhode Island

Playing regional opponents was the intent of the good for New England game. Because Northeastern dropped football and UMass and UConn jumped to FBS, there are fewer options in this category. But that doesn't mean we should stop playing these teams. 75% of the time, these three teams should be available. BC doesn't offer the big pay day they might get elsewhere, but that is somewhat offset by the travel costs. I don't think New England is ever going to become a hotbed of football, but it is important that these schools maintain healthy, scholarship-supported FCS-level programs. Coaches from those programs will coach at our clinics and keep football relevant in the region and among high school. Regional games are good for both sides.

Catholic games

Villanova

Fordham

We a quick to remind the media that we are the only other Catholic school playing FBS football. It is part of our identity. Therefore playing other Catholic schools should be important to us. BC has long used football as a tool to associate with like-minded Universities (think Northwestern, Stanford, etc.). Playing other Catholic schools reinforces that idea. Plus we have a football history with these programs.

Candidates who move up to the full allotment of scholarships

Bryant

Holy Cross

Georgetown

Central Connecticut State

Sacred Heart

San Diego

St. Francis

BC cannot count an FCS win towards bowl eligibility if the school does not offer a full allotment of FCS-level scholarships. That leaves out the Ivy League and puts the future games with Rhode Island in jeopardy. But all the schools listed above have explored using 63 football scholarships. If any do make the commitment we should support them under the same reasoning I stated before. I don't think Bryant or St. Francis will excite many people, but that is the right thing to do. Playing Holy Cross and Georgetown on a regular basis would be ideal. 

Football Schedule is finally here

With all the confernece shakeups, the ACC delayed its football schedule for weeks. Finally it was released. We knew who BC was playing in 2012. Now we know in what order.

2012 Schedule
Sept. 1 -- Miami
Sept. 8 -- Maine
Sept. 15 -- @ Northwestern
Sept. 29 -- Clemson
Oct. 6 -- @ Army
Oct. 13 -- @ Florida State
Oct. 20 -- @ Georgia Tech
Oct. 27 -- Maryland
Nov. 3 -- @ Wake Forest
Nov. 10 -- Notre Dame
Nov. 17 -- Virginia Tech
Nov. 24 -- @ NC State

My initial thoughts...

This is the most evenly distributed BC schedule in some time. For years it felt like we had soft spots followed by death marches against the toughest teams. Looking at that schedule, there is no section that jumps out. Maybe three straight on the road with Army, Florida State and Georgia Tech, but Army should be a W and Georgia Tech is a winnable game.

I am glad we are ending the season on the road. Thanksgiving weekend games are always low energy at the Heights. With the students gone and many of the regulars elsewhere, it should be a weekend we avoid. I am disappointed that we are hosting Labor Day weekend again. Many of the same attendance and ticket issues are in play there too. Plus we were in the mix for a national game on Sunday or Monday. Playing Miami on a busy Saturday afternoon won't get much national attention on the college football landscape.

Seeing the schedule on paper is a reminder that we have a tough road to a bowl appearance. A decent coach would get us to one, but I don't trust Spaz at this point. I would say the only true wins are Maine and Army. I would put Florida State and Clemson are sure losses (with Spaz's play to lose mentality). That leaves BC to find four more wins from the rest of the schedule. Maybe the offense will finally click with Martin calling the shots. But right now I think this team is headed towards a 5-7 season.

We shouldn't duck Harvard

As reported by numerous sources, BC will not be playing Harvard in basketball next season. While this is not a big deal in the whole scheme of BC's basketball scheduling, I still think it is a mistake.

The rationalizations for taking Harvard off the schedule for a season or two are pretty straight forward. We don't benefit in our RPI. We have a chance to play other schools. Despite the proximity to one another, the game doesn't generate ticket sales. Oh, and they beat us two years in a row. This thinking is very similar to the reasons BC took Holy Cross off of our basketball schedule a few years ago.

Like removing Holy Cross from the schedule, no one will really care. BC has plenty of good teams on its slate and will play in a solid tournament. But the philosophy of tweaking the schedule when things don't go exactly as planned feels cowardly or at the very least bratty. We can't play Harvard or Holy Cross, or even BU in football. Having them and any other local school on our hoops schedule is a win-win regardless of the actual outcome. It is a chance to interact with other universities in the area. In most years we will win those games. The travel costs are minimal. We build a local base (more so than a random bottom dweller that might replace them). If we can't beat Harvard 9 out of 10 years we have bigger problems than scheduling an Ivy.

Many feel that our loss to Harvard punished us come selection time. I don't buy it. We loss to Yale. We had some ugly games down the stretch. We also had a loss to URI. The tourney resume was cumulative and always will be. So playing Harvard and the like is a not a lose-lose. It is a no brainer. I hope the common sense comes around and we see the Crimson again in 2012-2013.

Quick Schedule breakdown

THe ACC released the 2011 football schedules today. Here is BC's:

Sept. 3 -- NORTHWESTERN
Sept. 10 -- at UCF
Sept. 17 -- DUKE
Sept. 24 -- MASSACHUSETTS
Oct. 1 -- WAKE FOREST
Oct. 8 -- at Clemson
Oct. 22 -- at Virginia Tech
Oct. 29 -- at Maryland
Nov. 3 -- FLORIDA STATE (Thursday)
Nov. 12 -- NC STATE
Nov. 19 -- at Notre Dame
Nov. 26 -- at Miami

Good news
We are back on Thursday nights! Now that the SEC and Pac 10 play on Thursday, the former staple of the BC schedule has become rare. I always think of it as a great showcase for the program. I also like that the UMass game is back to Parents' Weekend. Starting our season with a FBS cupcake has been a momentum killer and Fools Gold. I also like the extra preparation time for NC State and Virginia Tech.

Bad news
We have some brutal stretches in this set up. Going on the road for three straight games (which includes Blacksburg and Death Valley) is tough. Then after that stretch we take on Florida State on short week. We also close on the road with games at Notre Dame and Miami.

Outlook
If Vegas put up lines today, I think we would be favored against Duke, Wake and UMass and would also be a slight favorite on the road against an improving UCF. We should be able to win all four. That means we would just have to go 2-6 against the rest of the schedule to get bowl eligible. I think it can be done. If our offense improves by even three points a game, we are a bowl team.

Marketing gimmicks can't save BC's attendance issues

When I saw this morning that USF was the latest college football team to enlist help from Groupon, I thought it was time to discuss BC's annual struggle to sell out all our home games. (Note: BC has been using Groupon for a few weeks.)

Despite Groupon and giving away multiple tickets to season ticket holders, it is very unlikely that BC will sell out the Weber State game or Kent State game. This isn't very surprising but given that Weber State will be Herzlich's return, it is very disappointing. More disappointing is that we have Notre Dame, Clemson and Virginia Tech on the home schedule this year. In the past, demand for those games would be enough to lift sales for the entire season.

The soft ticket sales are not all BC or its fans fault. There remains a softness nationwide due to the economy. You can even get Red Sox tickets at face value, which was unheard of five years ago. I also think game fatigue has set in too. BC used to play five or six home games a year. The diehards love the idea of an extra game and an extra tailgate. But for the casual fans, it doesn't mean much.

Despite all the built in excuses for the empty seats, there are two obvious mistakes that BC should avoid going forward.


1. Never schedule a home game Labor Day weekend. As long as BC starts classes after Labor Day, having a home game is a mistake. Students are drifting in and the campus and school are not in their regular routines. Plus it is the last weekend of the summer for many fans. They don't want to be sitting in Alumni watching a cupcake game. They want to be at the beach. Add in Boston's PGA event and you have a drag on demand. I know BC doesn't want to start the season on the road every year, but the trade off is a buzz-killing home opener.

2. Always put the FCS game on Parent's Weekend. This used to be one of BC's smartest moves. They would squeeze in a cupcake game on a weekend where you have 10,000+ extra ticket buyers. However, they've gotten away from it the past few years as they had to reshuffle schedules due to coaching changes and Hofstra dropping football. That resulted in Virginia Tech being a home game this year (and likely a night game). A VT night game would be a major draw anytime. It is a wasted opportunity. Plus I think most parents would rather have a day game and go out to dinner with their kids on Saturday night.

I didn't even touch on donor-based seating, or tailgating or style of play. Those remain issues where BC has less flexibility. What they can control is marketing and scheduling and right now they are making obvious mistakes and in turn creating a lot of empty seats.

Who is Weber State and what are they doing on BC's schedule

When Hofstra dropped football, it left an immediate hole in BC's 2010 schedule. We hoped and prayed for an interesting replacement. Most expected another DIAA/FCS team from the north east. Instead we got Weber State. Needless to say this is a missed opportunity.

I don't mean to slight Weber State in any of this. They are a nice school with a fine athletic tradition. But they are a DIAA program from Ogden, Utah. People wonder if the southern ACC schools register with the casual Boston fan. Can you imagine the head scratching that will go on when they hear we are playing Weber State?

But let me put aside any slights to Weber for a moment and address the reason this is a missed opportunity.

1. The DIAA game should always be strategicly placed in the schedule. We are opening with Weber on Labor Day weekend. I predict 25,000 for the game. If we had placed Weber on Parents Weekend, we could have approached a sellout.
2. It throws out the "good for New England" game. When BC first started adding DIAA teams back to the schedule, Gene spun the games as good for New England. Most cynics saw through it, but there were some legitimate benefits. The regional schools always brought decent crowds and BC was able to get a safe win and provide a nice pay day to a fellow New England university. As Northeastern showed, all DIAA schools need money. Instead of benefiting UNH or Maine or some other New England school we are paying a Utah program to be our patsy.
3. We put a damper on any buzz related to Herzy's first home game. This game could be Herzy's return to football. It should be on national TV. Now we will probably be lucky to get an ESPN 360 feed. I know you can't build a schedule based on contingencies. But ESPN, BC and the ACC should have done more to arrange for a good opponent for Herzy's sake.

I understand that Gene was under time constraints. I understand that playing another FBS school would have made the schedule unnecessarily difficult. But there had to be a better resolution than Weber on Labor Day weekend. It is too bad we didn't find one.

Penn State rumors and other links

Patriots' Day is always slow for BC news, but word leaked that BC and Penn State are talking schedules. This would allow Spaz to take on his first mentor in Joe Paterno. It would be great to have them back in the regular schedule rotation. Plus taking on JoePa allows Spaz to look young, fresh and hip.

The Broncos like both of our Defensive Tackles. They probably can't wait for Raji to drop so they may reach for Brace. (Thanks to John for the link.)

SI is finally retracting its Raji story. (Thanks to Matt for the link.) 4/20 justice! BJ recently spoke with the 49ers.

Matt Ryan is going to be in an ESPN ad that will air this fall.

This New Jersey linebacker doesn't have a BC offer yet but hopes to turn some heads this summer.

First (delayed ) reaction to 2009 schedule

Once again, here is the BC press release for the schedule. It plays out as follows:

-- Sept. 5, Northeastern
-- Sept. 12, Kent State
-- Sept. 19, at Clemson
-- Sept. 26, Wake Forest
-- Oct. 3, Florida State
-- Oct. 10, at Virginia Tech
-- Oct. 17, NC State
-- Oct. 24, at Notre Dame
-- Oct. 31, Central Michigan
-- Nov. 14, at Virginia
-- Nov. 21, North Carolina
-- Nov. 28, at Maryland

Everything BC could have wanted
Considering we already knew the opponents this is a dream slate for Spaz's first year. I think we get nearly every team when and where we want them. We don't deal with any awkward trips or Thursday night games. Seven games are at home. The toughest road game is at Virginia Tech, but we know we can win there (neutral fields with the Hokies are a different story).

Baby Steps
The best part of the schedule was BC's jostling to move Northeastern to the opener. It is not exciting but it is just what we will need with a raw QB and a first time head coach. There is no way BC should lose that game. Following Northeastern with Kent State is another confidence booster. We beat them in Cleveland with great D and bad QB play last year. This year shouldn't be any different.

Right teams at the right time
We get Clemson in the third week of September. Bad news is that it will be really hot. The good news is that Clemson's QB and coaching situation is as uncertain as ours. I love playing them early since they won't yet know what they can and cannot do with their QBs. Following that game we have a tough stretch. But four of those games are at home. We play Notre Dame the week after they play USC! Can it get any better? The Irish will either be coming off a huge upset or, more likely, trying to pick themselves up after another crushing defeat. Either way they won't be ready for us.

Big Finish
After the challenging October we get a bye, then close with a road trip to Virginia, North Carolina at home and on the road at Maryland. Writing this now in February, I have a feeling that all three of those teams will be struggling by the end of the season. We should be coming into our own as whoever our QB is will have a season under his belt. I think all three are winnable and should propel us into a bowl.

We have many question marks heading into the year, but this schedule will allow the team to grow and adjust. I'll spend a lot more time this offseason breaking down opponents and predicting the Ws and Ls. For now, I think BC and Spaz should be feeling a little better about what's ahead.

First reaction to 2008 schedule

This schedule has been floating around the past few days. I was waiting for an official announcement, but since the Globe went ahead and published it, I figured I might as well weigh in too. My thoughts follow. Please add your own in the comments section.

Aug. 30 at Kent State
Sept. 6 vs. Georgia Tech
Sept. 20 vs. Central Florida
Sept. 27 vs. Rhode Island
Oct. 4 at Florida State
Oct. 18 vs. Virginia Tech
Oct. 25 vs. Clemson
Nov. 1 at Wake Forest
Nov. 8 vs. Notre Dame
Nov. 15 at North Carolina
Nov. 22 vs. Maryland
Nov. 29 at North Carolina St.


A good start
Last year notoriously opened with three ACC games. This year we get a MAC team at a neutral site (although technically it is a home game for them), Georgia Tech at home in the second week under their new offense, a good but beatable Central Florida team at home, an off week and then URI parents weekend. That is manageable. Regardless of how much the offense struggles, our defense should be enough to win those games. 4-0 is likely.

Tough midseason
Putting aside Florida State's recent inconsistency, we have not matched up well against them. On the road makes things that much more difficult. Our second break in the schedule doesn't add much. I would have preferred it later in the season when everyone is more beat up. VT and Clemson are probably the two best teams on our schedule. Fortunately we've played well against both recently and have both at home. At Wake to start off November...not an easy game. This stretch could go about ten different directions.

The final four games
Notre Dame cannot be as bad as they were last season, so that makes this game tougher. But it will be at home and our team and fans will be pumped up. UNC on the road is a tough game but winnable. I expect Maryland to have another down year. Closing out at NC State against TOB is an interesting twist. He'll be in year 2 of his rebuilding, so I like our chances there.

On paper this schedule is less demanding than last season's. Of course once we played the games, we saw that some were tougher than others. It is very early and there are still many things we don't know about our own team, but I think this sets up well for BC. Our new offense gets a few winnable games under their belt before the true tests. I am optimistic and think this will play out well.

Schedule news, recruiting and more links

Most of you probably saw this on Boston.com, but our game against Kent State has officially been moved to Cleveland. The game will also be played on Saturday, instead of Thursday. That is good news for our fans in Northeast, Ohio. Bad news for everyone else. The Thursday game would have been on TV. This game might not be. Since it is a road game ACC Select and ESPN 360 are unlikely. Keep your fingers crossed.

This article on bowl gifts also made the rounds yesterday. I think our guys getting a $400 shopping spree at Best Buy is pretty cool.

Pennsylvania product Eric Reynolds committed to BC.

Codi Boek is featured in these two articles (1 and 2). I think he has a real chance to play next year.

Finally, former BC assistant and current Temple coach Al Golden has emerged as a candidate for the UCLA job. Only a guy like Golden could turn a 4-8 season at Temple into a plum job like UCLA. We actually owe him thanks for encouraging two of our current staffers (Ryan Day and Mike Siravo) to come to BC. Golden and UCLA is a head scratcher to many involved, but I think he'd do well there.

What to do with the open date in 2008

Gene held another chat yesterday. Most people seemed caught up in the bowl/travel issue. What caught my attention was the confirmation that Army asked out of our game next year. The Black Knights change of heart gives BC an interesting opportunity. Does BC use the open date to take on a big fish? Or does Gene find a lesser opponent to help our young team pad its resume? Here are the two sides...

Marquee Game
A few notable teams like Alabama and Louisville are also looking to fill holes in their schedule. Taking on a high-profile program has clear advantages. TV coverage is assured. You can sell it to recruits -- "We play in the ACC and take on anybody. This year we're playing Alabama." A win generates buzz and changes perceptions. Losses still count, but there is a modicum of respect by just taking on a tough team. If BC were to sign on for a well known program, we would probably play them on the road and get a future return game at Alumni. Why not do it? Because the risks aren't necessarily inline with the rewards. A loss wouldn't count in the ACC standings, but it would impact our potential ranking and our bowl eligibility. As Ohio State and Kansas showed this year, sometimes winning generates more buzz than playing a challenging schedule.

Cupcake Game
MAC teams, Sun Belt teams and some WAC teams would gladly play BC...especially if we come to them. The downside of these games is that the payday is smaller, the wins are not respected and you open the door for an embarrassing loss. Think of Central Michigan in 2006 (who proved to be good) or Ball State in 2004. Both teams gave us real scares. Kent State will probably give as all we can handle next season. When BC pulls those games out all we get is a W. We don't generate any buzz. If we lose, we get laughed at and it makes our bandwagon a lonely place.

What would I do?
I would find a winnable game. As I wrote earlier in the week -- and it wasn't a popular thing to post -- I think next year will be a challenge. Our defense will be good. I think our offense will struggle. Our line will be filling two open spots and the production from our QB is completely unknown.

What do I think will happen?
Based on his willingness to play USC and the comments I've heard through the grapevine, I think Jags would sign up for a game with Alabama in a heartbeat. I think Gene might be a different story. He is almost as invested in Jags succeeding as Jags is. Giving BC an easier game during a transition year continues the program's momentum and helps us get back into a bowl. I know Gene would also love to get another home game. My bet is we'll play another MAC team. We'll probably win and very few non-BC fans will even pay attention.

Although our opinions won't decide this game, I would love to hear what you guys think. Leave your thoughts in the comments.

Season prediction Part III: what will happen

I’ve gone back and forth on this since the day TOB announced he was leaving. What would a new coach mean for this talented team? How would BC fare against such a demanding schedule? My reasons for optimism (Logan, Spaz, Matt Ryan) would then be offset by another development (our front and back loaded schedule). I’d hear or read about how good the defense was only to hear equally grim news about the offense the next day. All that is over. None of it matters Saturday as a new era begins. I think this season will be good (not as good as the best case) but enjoyable and refreshing. I’ve been pretty close with my actual predictions that past two seasons (2005 and 2006). Let’s see how this one plays out.

What will happen



Wake Forest. Win. I have the ultimate respect for Wake Forest and will never take them lightly, but I think we win comfortably this year.

NC State. Win. No doubt. Plus if we beat Wake in the opener we’ll probably move into the Top 25 and you know how TOB does against ranked teams.

At Georgia Tech. Loss. Tech’s D is very good. By the third week, you’d hope BC’s would be clicking on offense but on the road against a very good team, I have doubts.

Army. Win. Playing the service academies is always tricky, but Army is still a few years away from being good again.

UMass. Win. BC’s recent DIAA games haven’t been competitive. I don’t think that changes this year.

Bowling Green. Win. The annual MAC sacrifice continues. One of these days a MAC team is going to beat us. I don’t think it will happen this year. At 5-1, BC would be ranked again.

At Notre Dame. Win. The analysts seem pretty split on Notre Dame. I think they’ll be good but certainly beatable. We’re fortunate to play them the week before USC. I think this game will mean more to us and we come away with a win.

At Virginia Tech. Loss. I cannot see this playing out any other way. I guess it is the Blacksburg aspect that making me so pessimistic. VT was a tough home team before the tragedy. Adding that emotion to the crowd makes it that much more so. As long as we have Matt Ryan I think we can win any game, but forced to make a realistic prediction, I see a loss here.

Florida State. Win. I don’t see us losing two in a row. I also think FSU is a year or two away from being an unbeatable power again. We also need this win for divisional purposes.

At Maryland. Win. I am anticipating a down year from the Terps, so by the time we get to this game they may be mailing it in.

At Clemson. Loss. We’ve pulled off improbably wins against the Tigers in 2005 and 2006. The luck runs out here.

Miami. Win. If I am lukewarm on the Florida State makeover, put me in the skeptical column on the Miami coaching changes. I know Randy Shannon had statistically good defenses there, but to me he doesn’t represent the wholesale changes that were needed and his offensive coaching hires left me unimpressed.

A 5-3 conference record creates a very precarious bowl situation. I don’t think it gets us into an ACC championship game, therefore BCS games are eliminated. Gator and Peach/Chick Fil-a are still in play, but probably long shots. I don’t think we’re all that desirable for Orlando, so I predict we’ll fall to the Music City Bowl. Not ideal, but realistic. We’d face an SEC team (my bet is Tennessee) which would be a virtual home game for them. We win and Jags finishes his first season with a very respectable 10-3 record.

Season Prediction Part II: best case scenario

Given the set up of our schedule, the new staff and our veteran team, this could be a fantastic season. And as Jags has been reminding us in the media, BC has been only “one game away” the last three seasons. Is this the year we get over the hump? I hope so, but remain cautiously optimistic. If the perfect season happens, this is how it could play out. Monday I’ll post my real predictions.

Best case scenario

Wake Forest. Win. No trip ups against the Deacons this year. BC runs away against a young and undermanned Wake Forest defense.

NC State. Win. The perfect day. Perfect weather, perfect day from Matt Ryan under his new QB coach, the defense shuts out Dana Bible, and bitter fans mock TOB. Everyone goes home happy.

At Georgia Tech. Win. A very tough game but the victory sends notice to the college football world that BC is for real. The team is in great position due to the 3-0 conference start.

Army. Win. Things are clicking. Not even interesting.

UMass. Win. This team is too good to have a letdown against a DIAA team. Chris Crane plays well most of the second half giving fans a glimpse of 2008.

Bowling Green. Win. Another easy game. BC is now ranked 11 and undefeated heading into Notre Dame. Fans are just a tad bit excited.

At Notre Dame. Win. Notre Dame is still rebuilding so the win isn’t as big as some of the other triumphs over the Irish, but BC is now in the top 10. Campus gets a little rowdy Saturday night.

At Virginia Tech. Loss. The bubble bursts. BC plays a little sloppy against a very good VT on Thursday night. Jags and the players say all the right things and are still focused on winning the division.

Florida State. Win. Florida State is better than they were in 2006 but still not all the way back. BC has another impressive showing and Ryan looks like he’ll be a Heisman finalist.

At Maryland. Win. Maryland overachieved last year. I think this year will be more of a struggle for the Terps. BC wins with ease.

At Clemson. Loss. Another epic game only this time with a different end. The loss hurts but BC still controls its own destiny.

Miami. Win. Erasing all frustrations of the TOB era, BC beats the uneven Hurricanes and wins the Atlantic Division.

ACC Championship Game vs Virginia Tech. Taking on the Hokies at a neutral field makes things a little better. A back and forth game sees BC win the ACC.

The two losses are not enough to get BC in the National Championship mix nor enough to get Ryan the Heisman (however he does get invited to New York for the ceremony). As winners of the ACC, BC heads to the Orange Bowl. There they face an at large team. I am guessing Oklahoma. BC wins capping off the best season since the Flutie days.

Now for the cold water: this is reasonable but unlikely. Monday I’ll post what I think will happen.

Season Prediction Part I: worst case scenario

The past two seasons, I’ve done a three-part prediction. One best case, one worst case and then what I actually thought was going to happen. As you can see (2005, 2006) my predictions actuals were very easy to make during the TOB era. This year is a different story. Jags is a Wild Card and the season could go a variety of ways. As you’ll see in a few days I am optimistic about the season, but this entry is the worst-case scenario. I don’t think the following will happen, but it could. (Check in Friday for the Best Case.)

Worst Case Scenario

Wake Forest. Loss. Jim Grobe proves he was not TOB’s nemesis but rather Frank Spaziani’s as BC continues to give up big plays to Wake's motion offense. The still adjusting BC offense looks anemic.

NC State. Loss. TOB returns triumphantly. Both offenses struggle for most of the day, but Daniel Evans leads a late game-winning drive for the second straight year.

At Georgia Tech. Loss. Third straight ACC opponent. Third straight loss. Needless to say the plane ride home is very quiet. There is a pall on campus. The message boards are in full meltdown mode.

Army. Win. Finally some relief. The offense looks better. The defense shuts down the Knights. Hope returns.

UMass. Win. Another walk in the park. Matt Ryan has a big day. The defense continues its strong showing making everyone think that the second half of the ACC schedule will be better than the first three games.

Bowling Green. Win. The helter skelter October weather returns making this a sloppy game and much closer than BC fans would like. However, BC wins to get back to .500.

At Notre Dame. Loss. A close game but BC's offense takes a major step back against stiffer competition and Notre Dame’s new 3-4 scheme.

At Virginia Tech. Loss. Thursday night in Blacksburg is always rough. Add a very good VT looking for revenge and it gets ugly.

Florida State. Loss. The past two games between these teams were close and hard fought. This one is not.

At Maryland. Win. With the team’s back against the wall and the slim bowl hopes still alive, the Eagles rally and beat Maryland for the third straight year.

At Clemson. Win. Another sign of life, or a sign that Tommy Bowden’s team has checked out.

Miami. Loss. For the second straight year BC loses to Miami in a defensive struggle. Last year the loss sent us back to Charlotte. This year, it marks the end of the road.

Let me reiterate that I don’t think things will get this bad (hence the “worst case scenario”) but it is easy to see how with a new coach and quirky schedule the season could unravel quickly. Check in tomorrow for the best case

Kent State on the schedule and other links

By now most have probably read the Globe notebook that mentioned the Kent State games, but I thought I would give my quick thoughts. This is a good game and situation for BC. I'd be more concerned if we were still in the TOB soft schedule era, but Jags and Gene have shown that they are looking to strengthen our out of conference slate. If you are going to take on USC, Notre Dame and other marquee programs, I have no problem with balancing the heavyweights with a MAC team. Regular reader Kevin expressed a fear that I am sure many have: "we were lucky to escape our last two road openers against MAC teams." I am willing to serve as a MAC team's Goliath if our road game is on national TV and they agree to two games at Alumni. BC profits via exposure and then with an added future home game. With setup scheduled, I now want Gene to get these Kent State games on TV.

Speaking of TV, right now it looks like three of our non-conference home games will not be televised. There is still hope for ESPN 360 but this is really disappointing. I know that our ESPN deal precludes NESN stepping in, but I would think that the Red Sox or the ACC could reach some sort of compromise. I can see why there might not be interest in Bowling Green, but Army would do fairly well nationally and any game against another New England team would be worth NESN's time.

Here is a very good ACC Football blog.

In more Brighton news, current students better be careful off campus or they'll end up in the paddy wagon.

The four most important games of the season

In college football every game is a must win. Lose to a MAC school and fans start tossing around the letters “W”, “T”, and “F.” Lose to the Miamis or Florida States and the media starts chiming in that BC cannot battle the big boys. The reality is that Jags won’t win them all. However there are four games that are pretty vital to a successful 2007 season and building a bond with BC fans. In my opinion these are the four must wins in their order of importance. Chime in with your thoughts in the comments section.

1. NC State. Jags must win this game. Although we’ll play NC State every year, winning the first time will have the most significance. It will be TOB’s return to the Heights. It's Jags second game as a head coach. It will be our experienced team against their rebuilding model. Knowing TOB, I expect him to place a huge emphasis on this game and pull out all the stops to win it. He’s trying to prove something and NC State will be ready. If BC loses this game, Jags will be in a big hole with the fans and Gene and Jags will start hearing whispers that the wrong guy is coaching the Eagles.

2. Notre Dame. I’ve been critical of the BC fans who only care about Notre Dame. The forced break in the schedule the past two seasons has been a godsend as those fans came to realize there is more to college football than the Irish. Even with this change in attitude, this game will go a long way with the majority of BC supporters. Win this game and everything tastes sweeter, the sky is bluer, etc. Like the TOB/NC State game, Jags is facing the Irish at the right time. They are in rebuilding mode and BC could be favored come game time.

3. The bowl game. The bowl win streak became a major crutch for BC sports information and for TOB. The streak is filled with mid-major afterthoughts played in less than desirable locations. Regardless of the ignominious past, you don’t want to be the guy who ends the streak. BC prepped for bowl games well under TOB. Jags will be expected to do the same. Look out for the sharks if we don't make a bowl.

4. Wake Forest. The first win is the hardest. The last BC coach to win his first game was Jack Bicknell in 1981. Adding importance to this game, BC takes on the defending ACC champs in the opener. Winning here would help propel the team into the TOB game and provide a good path back to the postseason. And hopefully it will put to wrest Jim Grobe’s ability to ruin BC fans’ weekends.