Tuesday, January 24, 2017

Gut reaction to BC's 2017 Football Schedule

BC and the ACC released the 2017 Football Schedule Tuesday. Many of the non-conference dates were already known. Now we know where the ACC games fall into places. Here is the schedule and below is my gut reaction:

Sept. 1  --  at Northern Illinois
Sept. 9  --   Wake Forest
Sept. 16  --   Notre Dame
Sept. 23   --   at Clemson
Sept. 30   --   Central Michigan
Oct. 7   --   Virginia Tech
Oct. 14   --   at Louisville
Oct. 21   --   at Virginia
Oct. 27   --   Florida State
Nov. 11   --   NC State
Nov. 18   --   at Connecticut (Fenway Park)
Nov. 25   --   at Syracuse

-- This is very front loaded. Even though Notre Dame is coming off of a rough season, they will be better in 2017. Wake will probably be better. BC will probably be 3-2 coming out of September and could easily be 2-3. That will dampen enthusiasm and heat up the Hot Seat talk for Addazio.

-- BC could run the table late. I don't expect Brown to be playing like a Senior come November, but you hope that by then he and the staff understand what he can and cannot do. BC could close the season with wins against NC State, UConn at Fenway and at Syracuse. It might be another bowl eligibility run like this season.

-- One of the best home games is on a Friday again. Fortunately for season ticket holders outside the Boston area, they still get to see Notre Dame and Virginia Tech on a Saturday. The Friday night games are not going away. I just wish the ACC and ESPN would use them for less desirable matchups. But they are more concerned about ratings and not ticket holder experiences.

-- We will know everything we need to know about Addazio by the BYE week. This is Year 5. This is what he has been pointing to since Day 1. Our BYE week comes during the first week in November. By then he will have played all the elite teams on the schedule. If he has not broken through with at least one of them and we need to finish 3-0 to make a bowl, then Addazio might as well be let go during BC's break.

With the ACC's recent depth and competitiveness, I don't know if you can craft a perfect schedule. This one is fine and manageable. Let's hope BC is up for it.


Knucklehead said...

Not knowing who the QB is makes predictions unreliable. Let's say we have the equivalent of Towles.

W:N.illinois, wake, c.mich, CT
50-50: NC State, Syracuse
L:ND, Clemson, VT, L, VA(H), FSU

5 wins and dazzler goes back to OSU coaching Online for Urban-the-douche. Which is comical.

Knucklehead said...

O-line. Not online.

Knucklehead said...

The schedule is a grind. A game every week until November.

EL MIZ said...

"the schedule is a grind" - agreed. how often are we gonna hear Addazio bemoaning the team's lack of depth and the need for an additional 5 years on his 5 year rebuild? i would bet fairly often.

"it ain't easy playing every week. we just gotta keep grinding the rock straight up into da line and hope for da best. it also ain't easy with a freshman QB - this will take a while. probably another 4 years until he is a senior."

odds of meter bringing up "hey coach, you forced out what would've been a 5th year senior because you insisted on playing a mercenary transfer with a 40% completion percentage" are probably less than 5%.

mod34b said...

Chance of win in decimal then summed

Sept. 1 -- at Northern Illinois .7
Sept. 9 -- Wake Forest .6
Sept. 16 -- Notre Dame .3
Sept. 23 -- at Clemson .1
Sept. 30 -- Central Michigan .7
Oct. 7 -- Virginia Tech .2
Oct. 14 -- at Louisville .3
Oct. 21 -- at Virginia .5
Oct. 27 -- Florida State .1
Nov. 11 -- NC State .5
Nov. 18 -- at Connecticut (Fenway Park) .7
Nov. 25 -- at Syracuse .5

total 5.4 BC goes 5-7 Daz fired.

Teh future begins in a little over 10 months. yay

John said...

Back coaching OLine for Urban-the-douche....

Still laughing at that, and if we get blown out again like this past year, the sooner he joins back up with UTD, the better.

Guido said...

Atlanta Eagle - not a big criticism , but even you are giving the job of QB to Brown . If I were Wade's father , I would tell him to take his 3 years of BC academics and " REALLY beat the bushes" for a transfer school where you may have the opportunity to get some full time work as a QB. Trying to guess at their record next year is very difficult since trying to gauge the strength of Northern Illinois or Central Michigan is impossible. There is only one sure win that I can give you and that is UConn. BC will absolutely CLOBBER them. That is a big reason why Diaco is gone - his recruiting was abysmal. Other weak teams like Wake Forest, NC state and the "Cuse" may be vastly improved next year , so it is a crapshoot trying to guess records. So - another year of Addazio and Brad Bates - would guess that Bates will get at least a one year extension !!!!!That is the BC way !!!!!

JBQ said...

With John Fish of Suffolk Construction as the president of the board of trustees, this should be a straight business decision. There should be a new A.D. on board by next Fall in order to evaluate the state of the football program and to make changes accordingly. From every indication, Addazio wants to start Anthony Brown because of his speed and the running of the option. You have to wonder if anyone in athletics has been following the Atlanta Falcons. Towles was supposed to be a pro set quarterback. Instead, Addazio acknowledged that it was all defense and to run to keep the other team honest. So, Patrick dutifully handed off the ball. The first half of the bowl game was exciting with the second half putting everyone to sleep and almost sent everyone home with a loss. Both Northern Illinois at home and Central Michigan can be competitive if you let them stay in the game. The example of note is Colorado State at home last year. If only to create excitement and fan appeal, BC needs an up tempo coach. Addazio is like "watching paint dry". The bowl game announced attendance was 19,000. The actual attendance was 9,000. The same is happening at Alumni Stadium.

downtown_resident said...

If BC is making decisions about Addazio during the bye week, I think his fate is all but sealed. BC has virtually no shot to beat @ Clemson, @ Louisville, FSU or VT as we saw last season. At best the Eagles go 1-1 against Notre Dame and Wake, and I think there's a good chance they'll drop one more out of @ UVA and @ NIU (road games are tough no matter whom you're playing). CMU under no circumstances should be a loss.

A 3-6 or 4-5 record after 4.75 seasons of football-- which would give him a career record at BC at that point of 27-33 or 28-32 and a sub .500 record as a head coach, and a way sub .500 ACC mark at BC-- would more than justify a firing.

EL MIZ said...

good point Downtown re: bye week placement.

let's also not get deceived by the almost-500 record as a HC. Daz is currently 10-23 in the ACC. assuming we go 2-5 in that stretch (beating Wake and one of UVA, VT, ND seems like a fair guess), Daz would be 12-28 in the ACC at the time of the bye, good for a 70% losing percentage against his conference peers in 4.5 seasons.

STL_eagle said...

BC will likely be 3-5 by the bye week which should give the new AD all they need to send Daz packing. If BC is 2-6 or worse then the AD will have no recourse but to fire Daz. If Daz pulls an upset and beats one of ND, Clemson, VT, Louisville or Florida State and posts a 4-4 record at the break then Daz will have earned the right to finish out the season. This last scenario is unlikely but I would take it.

mod34b said...

Miz ..

in 4 full season Das has beaten only 1 ACC team with a winning league record.


Craig Yeaster said...

What a pathetic out of conference schedule. No wonder BC is the laughing stock of the power 5 conferences.

Hario said...

I think Mod's assessment is fair on prediction - 5-7 record.

That has got to get Daz fired. Sad that we are delaying the inevitable for a year

mod34b said...

[..... yeaster feels his impact fading...... yeaster contemplating being a dick elsewhere............]

Knucklehead said...

Yeast infection,
Take some penecillin.

Napolean Bonaparte said...

Good schedule - nobody to be ashamed about - no Howard no Buffalo no Holy Cross no UMass no Wagner no Weber State. The MAC teams here are very winnable but by no means cupcakes. The last three games are winnable but by no means guaranteed. We chose to be in the ACC. Daz gets paid a lot of money - hope he has us ready to play in our conference. If he does so - great. If not - find someone up to the task or join the Patriot League and cut the coaching salaries.

NEDofSavinHill said...

Replace Daz now. Hire Chip Kelly. Make BC football fun again. BC always has a decent schedule. They play in the best conference in the country. While the frauds in the media hype up the SEC West or the Big 10 East as the top division the ACC Atlantic is clearly the best. Clemson and FSU were three and 0 vs. the SEC West. The Big 10 East was 0-5 in bowl games with losses to Clemson, FSU and BC. It wasn't close this year. Maybe the other conferences will do better in 2017. 2. Has anyone looked up Greg Sciano's record? In ten years at Rutgers he won about one third of his conference games. In his three years at Tampa he won one third of his games. Now he is the D-coordinator at OSU. How did the Buckeyes defense do against Clemson? Don Brown is a better coach.

Boston said...


Over the years of your posting, I've always wondered but never asked: How do you arrive at your win probabilities? I'm not saying they're wrong (though I might give the UConn game a .8 or .9). I'm just curious if you have any sort of methodology or if it is a gut feel.

Bravesbill said...

Boston, I think Mod has said before that it's a gut feel.

mod34b said...

Well, do you think we can beat national Champ Clemson? Obviously not, yet there is a glimmer of hope if everything goes wrong for Clemson and right for BC. Ok. But What are the chances of winning? I'd say 10%. Just a guess based on experience. you could say 20% or 5%.

I usually picks .1, .2, .3.... .9 just to keep the math simple. But if you thought the chance of winning was 5% , you would add .05 into the formula.

Unless it is Wagner or the like, I usually do not give BC over an 80% chance of winning anything... (think of the Army game!)

Funny, I've seen this sum of probabilities on many sports sites, but cannot find a site with a simple explanation. Once i get into stats sites, they are filled with large "Summation" symbol, n=1; sequences etc. All offer complexity. I can't see to find the simple explanation. even wiki!

Tony Abardo said...

Northern Illinois, UConn, ND and Central Michigan?

They had a combined record of 18-31.

BC really needs to get some better games on their schedule for out of conference.

No wonder BC is considered to have the most lackluster fan base of pretty much any Power 5 program.

Craig Yeaster said...

BC's schedule is shameful. Why are they so afraid to schedule decent power 5 opponents out of conference?

Knucklehead said...

Yeast infection,
Does it really take 16 minutes to post something, then log in under a different email and post something else, to yourself?

Tony Abardo said...

They scheduled Kansas and Rutgers for future games. The program is a disgrace in every aspect.

Tony Abardo said...

Knucklehead, please tell us your thoughts on BC's out of conference scheduling.

Knucklehead said...

Learn how to read.

Max said...

I don't find the schedule horrible. As folks have said (and thank God) no Wagner, UMass, Buffalo, etc. at least there is some respect to the schedule names. Say what you want, ND is still ND and not Wagner or the criminal school of North Carolina.
My regret will be that Daz (should I take the shot) will be leading BC next season. So depressing. I am looking forward to wholesale changes in athletic dept.

Georgia Eagle said...

Nothing can bring Mod and The Knucklehead together except when a dickhead from UNC attacks BC. I love it.

Tony Abardo said...

Seeing BC fans wear "Superfans" shirts. That's funny.

Tony Abardo said...

"Superfans" are the kind of people that think winning the Beanpot is a major accomplishment.

Knucklehead said...

Going to a school where the athletes cannot pass their African American studies course when they are African American is funny, in a sad way.

mod34b said...

Is Tony the re-incarnated yeaster or just the new douche?

Max said...

Knucklehead - what is even funnier is the fact they likely had tutors who gave them tests and answers prior to taking; and papers fully ready for submission.

Georgia Eagle said...

UNC isn't much different than most sports factories. They just got caught but still haven't been punished. disgraceful.

TGS said...

The schedule isn't as bad as last year, but it's nothing special. Makes me long a bit for the days when BC was an independent and could/would play anyone.
1982 schedule:

Texas A&M
West Virginia
Penn State
Holy Cross
Auburn - tangerine bowl

Some national powers mixed in with a few natural eastern rivals. Not the toughest, not the weakest, but at least it wasn't dull.

Chris said...

BC will go 5-7 next year and Addazio will cry about how young the team is and then blame the meanies on Twitter for the negativity in BC's locker room. Hopefully BC will have the balls to fire Addazio and hire Chip Kelly. It's a no brained, BC fans want Chip Kelly here and from some of the rumors ive heard is that he'd like to coach at BC as well; aside from the pros of course.

Tony Abardo said...

Do BC fans get that excited over winning the Beanpot because they can't win real tournaments like the CFP or in the NCAA tourney?

Knucklehead said...

You have a thing for the Beanpot. What is it that has you so infatuated, the beans?

John said...

It's a celebration of the City of Boston (and Cambridge) and the players and alumni of 4 great schools. It's a great networking opportunity, or an opportunity to insult one another if you're in the in-group of those schools.

Outsiders are welcome to participate, at the risk of sticking out like a sore Tony.

Shabby1011 said...

Think this years schedule is best in years. Great home games, ND, FSU (#1 in country), VT with UConn in Boston. Making the trip to Clemson this year so that should be a blast.

5-7 is most realistic. Have the makings of a team that should be 8-4 but Daz cannot coach his way to that prosperity. We should have a great defense (again), Landry will be one of best players in the country, OL should be better, RB & WR's will be fine. However we are starting a new QB again. Wade or Brown will need time to adjust and learn on the job.

Unfortunately Daz has not joined the 21st century to realize the only position in Football that matters is the QB. He should be fired for no other reason then this is his 5th season and it will be his 5th starting QB. He has not developed one QB since he became coach, it is literally unfathomable. Daz might be worse at managing his roster then in game coaching or recruiting which is a mouthful.

Ultimately 5-7, 6-6 or 7-5 doesn't matter. There will (I hope?!!) a new AD in place by September which means everyone's job in the athletic department except for Coach York is up. It is just too easy for a new AD to come in and get in the good graces of the Alumni by firing the Dazzler. It will give renewed energy to the school and to the Alumni.

Craig Yeaster said...

BC is just pathetic in every way when it comes to football and basketball. The fan base should be ashamed about gloating over a win against UConn in football. That's like Knucklehead bragging that he doesn't have to do fry duty any longer at McDonald's.

dtrain1234 said...

2017 looks like a replay of 2016...wins over the cupcake opponents and 1 or 2 wins in ACC play for a record around 6-6. The truth is that the BOTs aren't willing to invest in competitive Power 5 athletics. The alumni may shake their heads in disappointment about the current state of affairs, but really don't care enough to take action. The students have lost interest (which was minimal even in the good times). ACC money is nice, but to what end if BC is a perennial doormat in the revenue sports?

Knucklehead said...

Yeast infection,
You lost to NC State. You fucking beater.

Craig Yeaster said...

BC is just the worst when it comes to the basketball/football combination for power 5 teams. Absolutely pathetic history.

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