Despite coming off the best BC victory in a decade, I am still very concerned about this game. Florida State is down and seemingly rudderless, but they still present numerous matchup challenges for BC. Plus they’ve beaten some good teams like Colorado and Alabama.
Theme that won’t be discussed on television. Last week’s comeback will probably be shown a dozen times. What I don’t expect to see are the final minutes of the 2005 FSU game. BC lost but it was the first indicator we had that Ryan could lead a team back under pressure. He moved the ball down the field with BC trailing. We could have tied the game, but our two minute drill had some questionable calls. (For those who want to relive it go read my second viewing thoughts on the game and scroll down to the play calling.)
Three simple keys
1. Redzone defense. Florida State has moved the ball this season. Punching it in for TDs instead of FGs has been an issue. BC needs to do a good job jamming receivers to disrupt timing and fade routes close to the endzone.
2. Protection. Like Virginia Tech, FSU will use athleticism instead of blitzes to get after Ryan. Last week the team struggled in one-on-one matchups along the line. This week, they need to improve greatly, especially at the Tackle spots.
3. Get to Weatherford. The one break BC caught was the Lee suspension. Although Weatherford was going to start anyway, Lee's availability and potential mobility could have caused problems. Now BC just needs to get to the FSU QB and force him to make mistakes and bad throws.
Gambling Notes
-- Bobby Bowden is 37-36-1 vs top 10 teams
-- BC has won 16 straight at home
-- Since the ACC most recent expansion, FSU has only been a road underdog four times in conference play. They are 1-3 in those games.
The current line is BC-6.5
What would be a pleasant surprise? An easy win. I saw Florida State give up against Wake. I would be really surprised if they mail it in again. There is too much talent and pride on the team for their players not to care.
What would be a letdown? Losing. The high of last week will be a distant memory if we slip up here.
What would be a shocker? Getting blown out. Last week showed that BC has talent, heart and good coaching. Running the table will be tough, but there is no reason for this team to get beaten soundly by an inconsistent Florida State squad.
Bottom Line
I think we win, but I don’t expect it to be easy or pretty. This is college football so style points do count. This will be the type of game where we are happy to escape and we hear another week of “BC is just not that good” from the talking heads.
Final Score: BC 28, FSU 20.
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21 comments:
I believe BC's 16 straight home wins is the nation's second longest streak to LSU.
BC 28 - FSU 14
Go Eagles!
Any word on a coverage map? I can't seem to dig one up. i have a terrible feeling that I am going to be stuck watching Oklahoma this weekend.
Chris Fowler posted a huge article justifying his low BC ranking on CF homepage of ESPN.
Of course, our last home loss was against this very team in 2005 (which was our first ACC game).
We are 8-1 in ACC home games.
I just read your comments from 2005, which concluded with this:
"TOB and staff played it too close at the end (and also punted it on fourth and a foot on the 30 down 11 with 6 minutes). . . But the coaching staff is going to have to play to win instead of keep things close."
How nice is it to be free from that?!?!?!?!
ABC's coverage map is below:
http://assets.espn.go.com/espntv/topics/coveragemaps/11307abc8pm.jpg
(if the link doesn't post properly, go to abc.com, click on the espn tab, go to the primetime game, and the coverage map is shown)
It's too bad Fowler includes BC in the general dislike for massholes that sports fans everywhere justifiably harbor. We may be become insufferable in our own right, and Bostonians many of us may be, but we aren't the same people who are still sitting around watching replays of papelbon doing riverdance. Someone should send him a tape of the morons on EEI or FSN so he understands the dynamic here.
Read Fowler's article. It's fair. I don't agree with it, but fair. I'll proceed to stop fuming at the mention of the words "Fowler" or "Herbstreit" now for at least another day.
eagle 0407 - its not just Fowler who is lumping us into what ATL calls the "Boston backlash," its almost every media outlet in the country (even corporations too, like Reebok).
Myself being from NJ and growing up a NY pro sports fan, I don't particularly like it, but its nice to be mentioned along with the other sports teams in Boston enjoying success.
I think this is a result of almost every other successful college football team in the country having a more local, state-centered student body. Think Oklahoma, Ohio State, Oregon, Florida State, Nebraska, etc. The media is presuming that the student body at BC is composed predominantly by Mass and Boston kids, which just isn't the case.
i also happened to think that fowler's article was fair.
nevertheless, it's interesting how fowler mentions that if the eagles remain undefeated through the miami game at home, "gameday" would be heading to chestnut hill. with BC being a national university and all, i'm curious to see how many students would be sticking around for that weekend. several years ago when i was still at the heights, thanksgiving weekend was an absolute ghost town!
...i'm definitely getting WAY ahead of myself pondering these thoughts, but it was interesting to fathom how students and non-alumns would participate in a "espn gameday" game on thanksgiving weekend.
Bosco--I have to think that most kids would come back Friday night if we get GameDay
3 Things regarding Fowler:
First, As SEC announcer Gary Danielson perfectly summed it up, "Conference strength should be a tiebreaker, NOT a leapfrogger." Thus, a one-loss team should not be elevated above an undefeated team. Ever. That is why Oregon and LSU ought to sit behind BC in the rankings, unless BC loses a game.
Second off, Fowler, I respect your opinion, I guess. I know you're not trying to sabotage BC. You were clear about that. But... just how many "style points" (that you so often mention) does it take to wipe out a loss. Like conference strength, if you want "style points" to enter the equation, it should be a tie breaker, not a leapfrogger. This is football. Lets save the "style points" commentary for ice dancing and synchronized swimming. Football is about W's and L's.
Third, don't lump BC in with Boston's pro sports teams. Boston as a whole has never embraced BC and put it on the map with the Pats, Sawks, Celtics, or even the Bruins.
Alex, good point. I'd definitely go back for the game if I was a student. Heck, I'd make sure that I went up for the game as a traveling alum!
Too bad Gameday won't be there this Saturday night, but it will certainly still be a great time.
For all of you who have participated in the "Eagle Walk," does it really start 2.5 hrs before game time (buses in front of lower dining hall)? i don't want to miss it.
Couple points:
1) We don't need Gameday to visit Chestnut Hill to justify the fan excitement or this tremendous season we are having in my opinion. Besides 2 of the 3 of the hosts aren't believers anyway, so why have ESPN there if I only get a smile on my face from hearing ol' man Corso sing our praises?
2) It does drive me a little nuts that Fowler says "style points do count." They don't. At all. Style points win Heisman trophies. They have no bearing on the team goals of winning an ACC championship and appearing in a BCS bowl. Computers can't recognize style points.
3) I might also point out to Fowler that even though Oregon lost on a last-second play, they lost a) at home and b) because the Ducks had 4 turnovers. They beat themselves. Negative style points in my book.
4) Style points also aren't accrued for leading Tulane 10-9 at halftime, LSU.
The argument goes both ways, buddy. OK, my blood pressure is rising again ... :p
Fowler also criticizes BC for their close loss to VT (a legit top 12 team in the nation), yet gives LSU a free pass for their near debacle v. Auburn that was salvages by an atrocious last second play call that just happened to fall in for a TD.
A debate over talent is one thing, but splitting hairs about how BC has won their games, while ignoring how other top dogs have just squeaked by, makes me continue to question CFowler's stances on this team.
Totally agree.
Also, the comparison between LSU and BC's games against Virginia Tech is pretty unfair too.
- BC played on the road, LSU at home
- I was there and to be honest, the weather and field conditions were terrible for a passing, pro-style offense team, which is why Matty looked bad for 3+ quarters
- I generally don't like to point fingers at the refs, but all of VTech's points came on questionable calls
- BC was coming off four out of conference games where the speed of the game slowed down and had to make a huge adjustment to get back into the swing of things
- LSU got VTech at the beginning of the season when teams were more healthy and key players were still playing
- VTech has owned Thursday nights in Lane stadium
Great points all around. It is journalistically deplorable to point to how BC played VT to how LSU played VT, and base your rankings from there (different time, place, expectations, conditions, etc.).
Don't get me wrong, LSU is a tremendously talented football team, but talent, like "potential," is not what championships are built on.
In college basketball, new teams entering the top echelon of rankings are often embraced (see Southern Illinois, Gonzaga, Memphis, even Xavier and Umass from a decade ago). It's a shame Fowler and other football pundits (predominantly affiliated with ESPN) are blinded more by school name and legacy, rather than the track record of team's in the season in question.
If you enter gray areas in one regard (doling out style points for victories), one should be equally accommodating in their portrayal of less frequent BCS faces.
Can we please run the ball a little bit more this week? Keep the defense honest.
I think Logan will run the ball more often this week and run a ton of screens if FSU blitzes all game.
On another note, should we be rooting for ASU this weekend against the Oregon? They may leapfrog us if they win but I think they will have trouble with USC.
Thoughts?
Cheer for Arizona State, in my opinion. Even if ASU goes undefeated, I still think we have more on our resume to hold our spot at #2 (plus ACC has a conference championship game). Side benefit will be if Dixon has a bad game and knocks himself a few rungs down on the Heisman campaign.
Plus very few media pundits have Arizona State above BC in their polls; almost everyone else does have Oregon above us.
Best case scenario. Sun Devils > Ducks and then < USC next week.
from the Globe today:
One thing Jagodzinski could do against FSU is counter speed with speed, or at least what speed the Eagles have. That could mean running back Jeff Smith, the fastest Eagle, will play a larger role.
"We're going to work him at second-team halfback and we could work him in some plays at wide receiver," said Jagodzinski of the sophomore who has played a minimal role because of a concussion suffered in August."
Should be interesting -- I hope he gets a few carries. I'm not sure what has been keeping him off the field since he's been healthy for a few weeks - maybe just because we rarely run and AC is so great picking up blitzes? Who knows how polished he is as a receiver, but I think he stands a better chance of getting off the line of scrimmage than the other wideouts at least.
I think you answered your own question; AC is too solid in pass protections, and when he doesn't have a blitz to pick up, he's as sure-handed of a receiver out of the backfield as I've seen in college football this year.
Throwing Smith in from time to time wouldn't hurt though... just take a look at what the bears have been doing with Devin Hester this year... dangerous decoy
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