Tuesday, January 29, 2008

Midseason Prouty Ratings

When you drop a few games and have a tough road ahead, everyone has an explanation for why things are going bad and what should be done. I've been attributing the recent struggles to the Freshmen. Upon further review the Freshmen's play doesn't tell the whole story. Take a look at the Prouty Ratings (Prouty is an efficiency measurement used by some college hoops stats guys).

Prouty Rating
[ {Points / (Field Goals Attempted * 2 + FTA) } +
{ (Points + Assists * 2 - Turnovers) / Minutes} +
{ (Rebounds + Steals + (Blocks / 2) - Personal Fouls) / Minutes} +
{ (Minutes / (TEAM TOTAL MINUTES / 5) } * Team Winning Pct} ] / 4

While not perfect, the rating attempts to measure a player's contributions by combing offensive stats, possession stats (defense) and productivity. Here's how the BC players ranked at this point in the season.

Rice 0.486
Sanders 0.416
Raji 0.402
Spears 0.393
Blair 0.339
Roche 0.332
Paris 0.326
Oates 0.315

As you can see, the freshmen are not the problem. Sanders and Raji have been two of our most important players. I think the bigger issue is the front line. All have had their moments, but none of the big men have been consistent enough or productive enough offensively. Our style of play rewards inside players with easy baskets and plenty of rebounds. We're not getting that from Spears, Blair and Oates.

I would like to see some improvement from everyone but I really think the key to the second half comes back to the freshmen. I think we've seen the upside of the front line players. If we want to squeak into the tournament (or worse, avoid a terrible second half), it is going to be on Raji and Sanders to become even better. If they improve their rebounding and are a little more careful with the ball, I think we can weather the storm of the next two weeks and make a late in the final weeks of the season.


John said...

2008 Schedule:


John said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
morrina said...

my very unscientific ratings, judged by perceived value and contribution to the team, and based on having seen every game except for Michigan:
1. rice
2. sanders
3. raji
4. paris
5. blair
6. spears
7. oates
8. roache

i agree that the freshmen hold the key to improvement, and that our problems lie on the front line. the freshman show real promise for improvement, while from my point of view older guys at the bottom may be playing to the best of their ability...which clearly isn't up to the level to enable us to win in the acc. roache and oates are killing us with their lack of athleticism.