Friday, January 11, 2008

Sleeper, Bubble team or NIT?

Expectations were low for the basketball team. Preseason, we were picked anywhere from 8th to 11th in the ACC. A good start, followed by a sloppy holiday schedule and concluded with two ugly non-conference losses has further muddled the outlook. How good is this team? I don't know. The ACC slate will tell us that. What this team needs to accomplish to continue our current tournament run is a little more clear.

Where we are
Real Time RPI: 110
Sagarin Rating: 109
Pomeroy Rating: 91
ESPN Bracketology: 11 seed with 7 ACC teams getting in
Bracketology 101: Last four out
Power Conference Rating: the ACC is 4th

Despite what ESPN says, if the season ended today we would not be invited to the Big Dance. In fact the Robert Morris loss and the Kansas blowout will stay with us long past this week. Unless we have a winning ACC record, those two games will have us on the bubble.

If we have a winning ACC conference record...we're in. No question. The conference is not at its best, but this wouldn't be debatable.

If we go 8-8 in the ACC...we are probably in. We will be called a bubble team, but since the ACC expanded with Florida State, every only one ACC team with a 8-8 conference record or better has not been invited to the tournament.

If we go 7-9...I think we are out. Robert Morris comes back to haunt.

If we go 5-11...that would leave us at 15-15. We are not even going to the NIT.

I still think 7 wins is possible. First the team needs to get out of its funk. A strong showing against Wake this weekend would be refreshing.


ClassO10 said...

The key to our season right now is winning the home ACC games- Wake, Miami, VA Tech, Maryland, NC State, Virginia, UNC, and Georgia Tech.
The only stretch in that group is UNC- ALL OTHER GAMES ARE WINNABLE. If we can go 6-2 or even 5-3 at home and pick up another win or two on the road we should be fine.

Key to the season is taking care of business at Conte and it starts these next two games against Wake and Miami

bceagle08 said...

i think our biggest problem come selection time is going to be our record vs. teams in the field. Aside from URI we have no real victories vs. tournament teams. We will most likely have losses to duke, carolina (twice), kansas as well as losses to teams that could be on the bubble- umass, providence

S. Andon said...

Pretty sure that FSU went 9-7 in the ACC two seasons ago and did not make the NCAA tournament. The 2005-2006 season they were 19-9 (9-7)...however, they did lose in the first round of the ACC tournament that year to a meddling WF squad.

ATL_eagle said...

S.Andon, you're right. I've fixed it.

Big Jack Krack said...

I must admit that I haven't been following basketball this year very closely - probably because of my very low expectations in a rebuilding year.

I like the positive attitides often displayed here. I hope I am very wrong - but 5 and 11 (or worse)is probably what we will see this year.

Skinner is too lax for freshmen who are not surrounded by wily veterans to be successful, in my opinion.

Big Jack Krack said...

attitudes - sorry.

Big Jack Krack said...

Football News:

Boston College has an agreement in principle to add Central Florida to its 2008 schedule. The Knights will replace Army. It would be a home game for the Eagles, who were originally scheduled to play at Army Sept. 13. BC is to visit Central Florida in 2011.

I, for one, am happy that we are not playing Rutgers. It would have been nice to get Alabama or Tennessee. Central Florida will be a very good test for us, and schedule critics won't be able to complain about our "weak schedule".