Games Started
Ryan had 32 starts at BC. Comparable to Brian Brohm and more than a season less than Chad Henne. However, Ryan's numbers should have been higher. He missed one start in 2006 against Buffalo when he could have played. TOB sat him to rest his broken leg. Yes, talking heads and Matt Ryan newbies, Ryan played half of the 2006 season on a broken leg...and still made first team ACC. I think he is tough enough to take a pounding in the NFL. 2005 also saw Ryan on the bench when he should have been starting. I don't need to rehash the whole QB controversy (you can read about it in my Old Posts of Note section in the right nav) but Ryan should have four or five more official starts under his belt.
Completion Percentage
Ryan's 2007 completion percentage is very misleading. As I pointed out in the Cook rebuttal, if you factor in the drops his completion percentage would have been around 63%. He also completed 62% his previous years as a starter. Ryan can make every throw in the book and is accurate as he needs to be.
I am all for statistical analysis and finding correlations to success. I just think Ryan will be an outlier to this theory. He's going to be a very good NFL quarterback.
Tuesday, April 22, 2008
Taking on the Ryan critics, Part 2
This article from Football Outsiders via ESPN also casts doubt on Ryan's upside. The author says that starts and completion percentage are the two best indicators of a college football QB successfully transitioning to the NFL. I am sure it is a sound premise, but applying the analysis to Ryan without context misses huge parts of his story.
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6 comments:
Looks like Brady Smith is done, charged with rape now. Banned from campus as well.
Using ESPN's completion stats for Matt Ryan at 49.3, 62.1, 61.6, and the 63.8 you suggest for his senior year, I still have him at 59% completion over the past four years. Ignoring freshman year, I get 62.5%.
Supposing we give him the extra starts and completions, he's at 37 starts, 62.5%. So my question would be what difference exists (and how significant is this difference) in the perception of 32-59.9 and 37-62.5?
Additionally, would that change cause the scouts/ESPN to view and gauge his potential more favorably, or would it remain roughly the same?
Sebastian, there's a problem with your numbers. You can't just average the completion percentages from each season. You have to weight it by completions and attempts. Otherwise you're counting his 35/71 freshman year as much as his 388/654 senior season. That'd be like giving a state like Montana as many senators as, say, California. Oh wait...
Anyway, the weighted average without even adjusting his senior year upwards is higher than that: 0.599109131403118.
Touche! I stand corrected
I'll be glad when the draft is over.
We overdo everything in this country, it seems. The hype and guessing by the "analysts" has really gotten old.
We know Matt and we know that he will compete!
I don't know what to say about Brady Smith - what a shame! Seems as though he has had a drinking problem throughout his college career. What a waste.
It's very important that BC handles this correctly. We also have the Cherilus/Tribble deal coming up in June.
I do not believe we are in the same class as other schools - but the media will scorch us on this.
I remember when Henning took over from Coughlin, he had no idea how to handle college players - and there was hell to pay. Jags and his staff should have this covered, but the jury is still out.
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