Thursday, August 28, 2008

Season prediction Part III: what will happen

I've been going back and forth on this post in my head all summer. What is the difference between going 5-3 in the ACC and 4-4? A lot, actually. 5-3 and the predicted out of conference sweep would put BC in position to win 10 games again. A 5-3, 10 win season probably puts BC in the Top 25 at the end of the season. All big accomplishments for a new coach and a program that continues to be underrated. So will it happen or will BC struggle in a transition year and finish 4-4 in the ACC?

I like the way our schedule plays out (Clemson, ND, VT at home). I like our defense. The big question and what is making this prediction so hard is Chris Crane and the offense. Here is my actual "what will happen" prediction on this season.

At Kent State. Win. We stuff the run, score enough and go home with a nice confidence booster.

Georgia Tech. Win. Another huge schedule break. The Georgia Tech team we face in September will be much different than the one that the rest of the ACC faces in November. Once Paul Johnson has his offense in place they will be a tough out. Thank the schedule makers that we get them at home in week 2 of the Johnson era.

Central Florida. Win. Another schedule break. Facing UCF at home in 2008 is a world of difference from facing UCF's 2007 squad.

Rhode Island. Win. No UMass-type scare from URI. Easy win.

At NC State. Win. This will be a tough game because of the familiarity, but I still think they are missing major pieces.

Virginia Tech. Win. This is the game I've been waffling over. I like that we have them at home. I like that we've beaten them recently and that Spaz seems to have a good handle on their offense. The question is us. Can we score and not screw up on special teams? I say we win this game. A win here and BC starts getting serious national attention.

At North Carolina. Loss. This is the grind of the schedule. Sandwiched between Clemson and VT, I think we drop at game at Chapel Hill. But then again, I am really high on UNC this year.

Clemson. Win. Like VT, this is another game where I could totally be missing the boat. I just like the way we match up with them and I love that the game is at home.

Notre Dame. Win. I've predicted a win over ND in every scenario. I think it is another team we match up favorably against despite ND's probable improvements.

At Florida State. Loss. We've just witnessed three bad years of FSU football. During the same time BC has played some of its best football. Yet we went 1-2 against the 'Noles. I see this as another stumble in the series.

At Wake Forest. Loss. This proves to be a huge loss. Three conference losses keeps us out of the ACCCG and out of a major bowl.

Maryland. Win. I don't have a great read on Maryland nor know what we can expect by November. But I like this game at home and think our D will want to makes amends for last year's embarrassing defensive performance in College Park.

5-3 in the ACC keeps BC out of the January bowls. However, the winning conference record keeps us from falling too far in the ACC Bowl selection process. I think we end up in Nashville playing Tennessee. We beat the Vols to finish the season 10-3. A season like this would leave BC in the Top 25 and be regarded as a strong effort in the post Ryan era.


johnoatesforthree said...

i think 5-3 in the ACC is a pretty good prediction with the games up in the air being unc, clemson, fsu wake forest. i agree with you in that we'll win one of these games and lose 3, but i'm not sure which one it will be. the bad part about this is that if the losses come at the end of the year it could drop us out of the polls.

Eagle1 said...

HD has us beating Kent State by only seven, which is three less than Vegas claims. When will these people learn?

Big Jack Krack said...

We have had 2 fairly close games against the MAC - both away, which I attribute to the TOB/Bible approach. MAC Teams are tough, and we shouldn't let them hang around.

I think our defense will frustrate them and our offense will break some long ones.

I think we'll win by 17-21 points - just to show HD that she needs to bone up on her assessments.

Recent History

2002 BC 43 Cen Michigan 0
2002 Motor City Bowl
BC 51 Toledo 25
2003 BC 53 Ball State 29
2004 BC 19 at Ball State 11
2005 BC 38 Ball State 0
2006 BC 31 at Cen Michigan 24 (MAC Champions; Ryan sprained or broke his foot)
2007 BC 55 Bowling Green 24


5 and 3 in the ACC will be very good this year - I'm hoping for 6 and 2. Why not?

BCNorCal07 said...

If you look at the Kent State game completely out of context, you might be able to justify a seven-point (or less) margin. Great, veteran running back on one side, seemingly rudderless offense going on the road on the other. However, when the Flashes have the ball, it'll be strength against (our even better) strength and that favors us. A lot. I hope.