Thursday, November 13, 2008

BC-Florida State preview

The past three years have been the worst three year stretch of the Bobby Bowden era. Yet BC only went 1-2 against the Seminoles during that time. Sobering isn’t it? Florida State appears to be on another accession while BC is patching together a transition year. All that can change this Saturday. If BC can pull off the upset, we are in the driver’s seat for the division and the Seminoles are left wondering what went wrong again.

Narrative talking point that you’ll tire of by the end of the game.
“Florida State is wearing the all black in honor of the unconquered Seminole Nation.” I appreciate pageantry. I like when schools have unique mascots and embrace the iconography and history around it. But come on, this Black Out stuff is pure marketing. FSU wants to sell more t-shirts and jerseys. They want to appear cool to recruits. They want to generate a buzz. I hope the ABC guys don’t go overboard spinning the Seminole Nation BS. This isn’t about the trail of tears. It’s a football game and a lot of green will be made off of that black.

Three Simple Keys
1. Keep Ponder in the pocket. Regardless of whether or not some FSU receivers are suspended because of their brawl, the key to stopping Florida State is making Ponder one-dimensional. If BC keeps him from breaking off those subtly deadly five and ten yard runs, their offense will bog down.
2. Remain patient with the ground game. Lost among all the postgame euphoria after Notre Dame was BC’s willingness to stick to the run. I think a low-scoring, ball-control game helps BC. We need to keep running the ball in the second half.
3. No missed tackles. The Clemson game turned on Spiller’s big plays. Many of those big plays could have been contained if BC guys weren’t flailing all over the place. The tackling was much better against Notre Dame. It needs to be even better Saturday night.

Gambling Notes
-- The visitor has won all three ACC meetings between the two teams
-- BC has never been more than a six-point underdog during Jags’ tenure
-- BC is 4-4 following a win over Notre Dame
The current line is BC+6.5

Factoid
BC did not play a game in the state of Florida in 2003, 2004 or 2005. This will be our fifth game in the sunshine state since 2006.

Scoreboard watching
We control our destiny but pay attention to Wake-NC State. In recent games the Deacons have shown new life. How they play against TOB might be an indicator of what we’ll face next week.

I hope to see…
BC contain their kickoffs. Things got better last week with Quigley kicking. I don’t know how much of that is attributable to Notre Dame’s return men or our improved coverage. Florida State is like Clemson in their ability to make a big play on Special Teams. We need to avoid that Saturday.

BC is in trouble if…
We can’t score in the redzone. We all know the kicking problems. We were lucky it wasn’t a factor last week. BC needs to convert opportunities. If we don’t, I’ll see you in San Francisco.

Bottom Line
I wish I felt better about this game. I don’t think FSU is great…just a bad matchup for us. But they are dependent on Ponder. Slow him, and play conservatively with runs from Harris, Haden and Crane and we can steal this game.
Final Score: BC 21, Florida State 20

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10 Comments:

At 2:36 PM, Blogger Claver2010 said...

I agree, I am wary of this game. Conservative Crane yielded 10 points against a bad ND team at home. He is going to have to make some plays downfield for us to win. His throws deep downfield don't seem to get picked off. It's more his short <15 yards throws. Jump ball for Momah, use FSU's strategy of receivers against them.

 
At 2:47 PM, Blogger BCMike said...

I would be even more concerned if we were facing Weatherford, who I consider to be a better short-passer than Ponder. I think Ponder's inexperience helps out Spaz and his game-planning.

If Weatherford could come in and repeat what he did last year, and what Sexson did this year...take the 8 yard cushion and make the safeties creep up...then we would be in trouble. But I think Ponder makes some mistakes and keeps BC in the game late.

BC wins late on a Quigley 47 yard FG.

BC 24
FSU 23

 
At 3:24 PM, Blogger The Big Guy said...

BC Mike, I agree with most of what you say but winning on a 47 yard field goal? I hope you were being sarcastic.

The fact we haven't attempted a field goal over 40 yards this year and we still don't know if Quigley is kicking field goals, makes this seem a little far-fetched. Hell, Jags would probably call for a hail mary in the end zone instead.

 
At 3:38 PM, Blogger Wesley said...

Quigley on a 47 yard fg... comeon mike... can you say a 25 yarder or maybe a harris run, or jet return , something else. other than a kick

 
At 4:54 PM, Blogger S. Andon said...

In an article from the St. Pete Times this week, Bowden specifically said that the reason for the black jerseys is because Nike said so: "We're doing it for Nike." (http://www.tampabay.com/sports/colleges/article901184.ece)

What worries me is that FSU is rolling with confidence now - in all phases of the game. As a BC grad ('03) in graduate school here at FSU since 2005, there is a real sense about this team. Don't think Ponder will be making mistakes in this game, he's simply not prone to the bad INTs he was throwing against Wake and Miami this season.

Ultimately, I see FSU exploiting the same weakness we've had playing against them the past couple of years - the height mismatch at WR. Remember De'Cody Fagg and Greg Carr dominating our tiny DBs? Well Carr is back, add in 6'5'' Corey Surrency and that's where I see problems.

I still think BC will pull this one out, but it's going to take a big game from Crane and Harris/Haden to get it done.

 
At 5:12 PM, Blogger Rob said...

BC 31
FSU 28

BC wins on an Aponavicius 54 yarder with no time left.

 
At 8:38 PM, Blogger Eagle1 said...

Rob:

Awesome. Soda just shot out of my nose. That was shartworthy.

 
At 9:48 PM, Blogger Alex F. said...

S.Andon--the days of a fleet of 5'8 corners at BC are gone. Jags has clearly made size a priority in recruiting the CB position. Even with Akins moving back to LB per the depth chart our primary corners are Gause (5'11), Rollins (6'0), Fletcher (6'1), and Johnson (6'0). And despite the depth chart I think you can still expect to see Akins (6'2) spend some time at CB as well.

Are they as tall as the FSU wideouts, no....but they are tall enough and physical enough to not be completely run over and dominated by them the way guys like Tribble, Morris, etc. would be. Our guys can hang with the Carrs of the world.

 
At 8:45 AM, Blogger BCMike said...

Hey, I know Sid can't hit anything over...oh, who am I kidding. I know Sid can't hit anything.

So I threw Quigs out there. Kid's got a leg! He can boot long kickoff's, why not a long FG?

:)

 
At 7:48 PM, Blogger mmason said...

If Jags lets our guys play long ball and we party all over their subs for the suspended thug felons of FSU, then we might win this game. Being conservative won't work now. This ain't crippled ND, y'all. Crane has to run and gun, Logan has to stop calling Grandma plays on 3rd down (Good Lord--we're 6-32 in 3rd down conversions in our last 2 games!) And Harris and Haden have to run thru holes that the O-line hasn't produced in a long while. If Smith could run around the blockers on Kick returns (instead of into them) and we get a couple of special teams plays (blocked kicks and fumble recoveries) then we win. It's gonna be catch the ball, tackle the bad guys and block those dudes in the black leotards--and Raji will do the rest! Easy...right? Right. Go Eagles!

 

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