Thursday, October 15, 2009

BC-NC State preview

If you took the pulse of either fanbase neither would be all that enthused about their team. Amazingly though, both are still very much in the race for the Atlantic Division. That makes this game a must win for both. Throw in the history between the coaching staffs and you’ve got plenty of storylines to follow on Saturday.

Narrative talking point that you’ll tire of by the end of the game.
“These two staffs know each other well…” Admittedly the familiarity is a factor in the game, but it is probably overstated. Although he brought his concepts with him from Boston, Dana Bible’s offense at NC State looks very different with Russell Wilson than it did with St. Pierre, Porter et al. Plus the Mike Archer-Gary Tranquill dynamic is fresh too. Plus I get the sense that this game isn’t that big a deal for TOB. I think he wants to win, but knows that UNC is ten times more important in his new world than beating the eagles. On the other side, this game is huge for Spaz. Not necessarily because of bad blood or a need to prove himself. It’s important to Spaz because it is important to his boss.

Three Simple Keys
1. Contain T.J. Graham in special teams. He killed us last year and ran one back against Duke last week. We cannot give them easy points in special teams.
2. Yards after the catch. NC State will let guys catch balls underneath. The key is to turn those five-yarders into 10 and 15 yarders.
3. Focused play from the Safeties. Wilson will buy time with his legs and is accurate downfield. Our safeties need to be patient with their coverage and help the corners so we don’t get burned deep.

Gambling Notes

-- TOB is 3-6 in ACC road games as head coach at NC State
-- TOB is 4-7 on the road as head coach at NC State
-- TOB had three-game losing streaks in both of his first two seasons at NC State
The current line is BC -3


Factoid
NC State has more Boston College graduates on their coaching staff (Jason Swepson, Mike Reed, Jerry Petercuskie) than BC does (Mike Siravo).

Scoreboard Watching
I’ll be watching Wake Forest–Clemson. Since they hold a tiebreaker with us it is probably better for BC if Clemson loses. But we will need Wake to drop another game at some point.

I hope to see…
Shinskie connecting on a series of short passes. That’s the way to beat NC State and Shinskie can make those throws. He just needs to remain focused and confident and put last week behind him.

BC is in trouble if…
They cannot stop Wilson early. Wilson is every bit as good as Skinner or Ponder. Both of those QBs had fourth quarter comebacks against BC. BC needs to slow NC State early and build a lead before Bible decides to scrap his gameplan and let Wilson be Wilson.

Bottom Line
Players only meetings, bickering among the staff, and a humiliating loss in Blacksburg are not the foundation for a good week of football. Yet this game means a lot to Spaz. I think the extra prep and the emotion of the team prove to be enough and BC puts together a strong effort.
Final Score: BC 38, NC State 28

17 comments:

whitey_b said...

ATL - if you're so down on Spaz, why do you keep picking BC every week?

mod34b said...

because we are playing NC State!

Brablc said...

Predicting a loss is no fun.

Also, do you think both teams can break the record for most runs on first down in a game this week? I'm thinking we'll obliterate it.

Unknown said...

http://collegefootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2009/10/14/worst-of-the-weak----bc-qb--2220/

Looks like Shinskie continues to take some heat.

Thomas said...

we won't have to worry about the kick returns because you know we'll kick it high and short to their 30 yard line to let them have it between the 40 and 50 every time we score(if we score).

tvp said...

Let me chime in as an NC State fan on two points:

(1) I think this game is big for TOB, not because it's BC, but because he is facing some serious outcry for the first time in his tenure here after the Duke debacle. He probably was not used to getting calls on his radio show telling him to "pack his bags" after a loss at BC. It will be interesting to see how he responds.

(2) On the comment about Bible "scrapping his game plan and letting Wilson be Wilson," relying heavily on Wilson has been Bible's game plan all year. My beef with Bible is that he is calling far, far, too many passing plays. We've ran it pretty effectively all year with Toney Baker, but the only game where Bible really committed to the run was against Pitt (not coincidentally, our only win). The last two weeks we've passed over 75% of the time (when you count Wilson scrambles and sacks).

ATL_eagle said...

whitey: I pick BC every week. Some weeks I believe it more than others, but ultimately I don't pick against BC because I don't want to see us lose.

Btoal said...

Can we now stop with the "bickering amongst the staff" rumors?

BCMike said...

"the Mike Archer-Gary Tranquill dynamic"

My head just exploded

Dan said...

Ok, so for the second week the countdown clock on bceagles.com is off by a day. wtf?

Erik said...

I'm pissed about this rain. It sucks for fans, it sucks for the players, it sucks for recruiting visits, it sucks for tailgating which costs everyone more $ per hour than open heart surgery, it sucks for attendance, which means it sucks for the University's revenue from ticket sales and concessions, and the list goes on and is cyclical.

I'm an unhappy camper.

Matt said...

Agreed Erik. To be completely honest, even if it makes me sound like a bad fan, I'm an hour away in NH and could have made it down for the game, but given the forecast I'll be watching the game with some buddies and some brews in the warmth of a local pub. Sad but true.

Darius said...

Dan--really? I didn't notice, but I hope the team isn't going by that clock. It would explain what happened last week too well. Uh-oh.

Erik--Say it with me:
DOME! DOME! DOME!

;)

Matt said...

Completely unrelated...

ATL, have you heard anything in the recruiting circles about going hard after a good kicker. We've seen that a good kicker can make all the difference (see VT, Wake in the past). Bennett was supposed to be awesome but hasn't blossomed into what we all hoped. I wish we would go full steam ahead after a kicker one of these days. Sure, it's great to have 7 mediocre QBs, but one reliable kicker could save us so much when we're punting from just outside the red zone. Oh, and also on kickoffs.

CT said...

I think the "let them have it at the 45 every time" philosophy on kickoffs is actually just another way of saying, "we're so historically good on defense that you won't score anyway." Wait, maybe I'm reading too much into that. We should just aim for a front-row guy and try to hit him with something low and hard. It'd be a step up.

Only at BC can we recruit the top kicker in the country and, of all the positions, the kicker has an attitude problem. Not the QB. Not a WR. The kicker.

And a 73 yr old back. It's probably bad when my favorite BC play is the pooch punt.

Pooch. Underrated word.

Was the staff not bickering? I read it here. For BC stuff, that's sorta like reading it in the Bible.

AlbanyEagle said...

Matt,
Re: the weather

Let me preface my comments by stating that the one thing I don't enjoy about ATL's otherwise superb blog is the inane "calling out" of some readers by others.

That said.....and try not to take this too personally....

Unless you are very young, very old, or otherwise infirm, then you are indeed a "bad fan" if you won't come out and support your team if there is a breeze and/or a few sprinkles.

You should rethink your plan to cuddle with your buddies at the warm bar.

Strap it on and come out to cheer on our Eagles.

I am sure it pains many of this blog's readers who live too far to get to home games to have to look at the regularly unfilled Alumni Stadium on their TV's (or computer screens), knowing that thousands of local "fans" just dont' go if the weather isn't perfect. I myself am fortunate enough to live within 3 hours of the Heights, and therefore am able to attend home games quite regularly, and do so regardless of weather, usually with enthusiastic future Eagles (kids) in tow.

Now, I have become what I loathe, judging a stranger on a blog.
But I have to get this out.

With a good crowd we can make Alumni pretty loud, and I believe that really does help our team, even if it is only a very little bit. Obviously this year's team plays better at home, albeit against weaker competition. If it's a weak crowd, maybe they're less pumped up....more flat...
That matters.
Flat performances lead to losses. Unlike big national programs, losses for our team lead to weaker crowds. And so on.
People complain about going to crappy bowls. What bowl committee in their right mind would want to invite BC over a rabid fan base from a southern ACC school when we can't even sell out our own (relatively small) stadium.

If you live locally, have a couple of extra beers to fight the chills, and get out to the game. It's a lot more fun to see a win in person.

LET'S GO EAGLES!! Let's get a good win and head out to South Bend with some fire in our bellies!

CT said...

AlbanyEagle in the hizzie