Thursday, November 12, 2009

BC-Virginia Preview

Like last year BC needs to run the table if they want to get to Tampa. Unlike last year though, they need a little help. (I will get to that later.). But we can't worry about what happens in Raleigh. BC just needs to get it done against Virginia.


Narrative talking point that you’ll tire of by the end of the game. "Al Groh's last days..." Groh is on the hottest of hot seats. Depending on how Virginia plays, I imagine the broadcasters will either paint it as the team rallying behind their coach or a team that is giving up. Neither is true. BC has faced enough lame duck coaches to know that the situation is very unpredictable. How the players respond is only a portion of what goes into the game or why a team loses. I often wish chaos on our opponents. Although UVA is bad, I don't see it this year. If we lose it won't be because Groh's kids played for him. If we win it won't be because they gave up. It will be that BC has better talent and execution.


Three Simple Keys

1. Use screen passes. We've been terrible at screens all year. We will need to use them this weekend. UVA still comes after the QB and they've been burned by screens all season.
2. Don't allow non-offensive touchdowns. UVA's offense is anemic. We can't help them by allowing a special teams return (which we are due for) or some sort of defensive score.
3. Stop the run. Virginia has some talent in the backfield, we can't make the game easier for them by allowing big chunks on the ground.


Gambling Notes

-- This is Spaz's first game as a road favorite
-- Groh is 6-7 against the Atlantic division
-- BC is 0-5 in their last five games on natural grass.
The current line is BC-4


Factoid

BC has played UVA, VMI, William & Mary and even a Marine team from Quantico but this is our first game in the state of Virginia not against Virginia Tech.


Scoreboard Watching

There is only one other game of any importance this weekend -- NC State vs Clemson. We need the Wolfpack to pull off the upset. Root for TOB like you never have before.


I hope to see…

Shinskie play a road game without a bunch of turnovers and mistakes. This is not Blacksburg, Clemson or even South Bend. The stadium will be empty. We are experienced. There is no reason to get road jitters in this environment.


BC is in trouble if...

Virginia has allowed a ton of sacks this season. If we can't get to their QB(s?) it is probably a sign that they are moving the ball.


Bottom Line

I don't expect this three game stretch to be easy nor do I take any game for granted, but I think Virginia is a good matchup for BC. We can score enough points and they are mistake prone on offense. That plays well to our style. I think we get the road monkey off our back and win comfortably.
Final Score: BC 28, Virginia 10

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18 Comments:

At 11:52 AM, Blogger CT said...

Right on, ATL. Good preview.

 
At 12:14 PM, Blogger farfromfinished said...

Good write up. I'm hoping for another Montel Harris extravaganza.

 
At 12:32 PM, Blogger Eagle1 said...

"If we can't get to their QB(s?) it is probably a sign that they are moving the ball."

I think that it probably would just be a sign that our pass rush continues to be awful, as it has been most of this year.

 
At 2:00 PM, Blogger Big Jack Krack said...

Subject for another day - In order for BC to "get over that hump" we all talk about, we need a 4 man pass rush that's capable of disrupting the quarterback by itself. While we always have very good players on the DL interior and DE, we need all four to be real top level brutes.

 
At 2:17 PM, Blogger cullenmi said...

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/stewart_mandel/11/11/texas-schedule/index.html

backhanded compliment from Mandel comparing us to ND.

 
At 10:45 PM, Blogger eagleboston said...

I think it is going to be a lot closer than 18 points. BC has not won on grass nor on the road. I agree that they get both monkeys off their backs (do monkeys really climb on backs that much)but it will probably be a 7-10 point affair.

North Carolina is a team I am deeply concerned about. They knocked off Va Tech in Blacksburg. We did not even compete against Va Tech this year.

 
At 8:56 AM, Blogger Erik said...

Big weekend for BC Athletics:

- Important football matchup with UVA
- Mens soccer in ACC Semi-finals tonight vs NCSU
- Womens soccer opens in NCAA tournament this afternoon vs Harvard
- Basketball kicks off a Sweet Sixteen season
- Two hockey games against UVM
- Field hockey in NCAA tournament vs Syr

 
At 9:07 AM, Blogger Toal for UFL MVP said...

Are there any gamewatches planned for tomorrow? Haven't seen anything posted on the Alumni Association page for Boston. Does anyone know if Atlantic Beer Garden can get ESPN360 shown on their TV's?

 
At 12:08 PM, Blogger BCMike said...

another gambling note:

BC is 7-2 ATS this year. All home wins covered, as did the ND loss.

UVA isn't VT or Clemson, nor is Scott Stadium equal to Lane Stadium or Death Valley...

BC is going to roll this week, IMO.

 
At 2:03 PM, Blogger mod10aeagle said...

Interesting reading on the UVa Football site: http://www.virginiasports.com/ViewArticle.dbml?&DB_OEM_ID=17800&ATCLID=204832594

Two take aways: first, UVa may be down to their third-string QB tomorrow, a red-shirt freshman who worked out at wide receiver in the Spring. Second, the players sound like it's been a long season, fans have deserted them, etc., but they really are playing for pride, one game at a time. I think this means that if BC can jump out to a lead, say 14 points, not enough of them will be able to maintain the motivation. On the other hand, if we start slow and they get up on us, look out.

 
At 2:10 PM, Blogger mod10aeagle said...

Here's more on UVA. Great quote from Groh on his #1 QB who is listed as "doubtful" (50/50) on their Thursday injury report:

"CHARLOTTESVILLE -- Jameel Sewell won't be completely healthy again until after football season, when his shoulder and ankle injuries have time to heal.

Whether Sewell will be healthy enough to play quarterback for UVa this weekend remains uncertain, according to Al Groh.

Sewell missed last weekend's game at Miami with a hurt shoulder. The fifth-year senior has been back at practice this week,, but if Sewell will be available Saturday against Boston College, Groh didn't let on Thursday morning during a teleconference with reporters.

Asked how Sewell has been holding up, Groh said, "Great."

Does that mean Sewell is good to go against BC?

"No, it just means he's holding up," Groh said, to laughter from his audience. "I don't exactly know what 'holding up' means. I'm glad it doesn't mean [holding up a] 7-Eleven."

 
At 2:21 PM, Blogger Ry said...

Toal for MVP:

I got an e-mail from the Boston Alumni chapter that there would be no gamewatch this week because it is on ESPN360. I have no idea if any area bars can get that station.

 
At 2:30 PM, Blogger BCMike said...

Both Verica and Sewell being listed as 50/50. Wondering if this is just standard "Belichiking" or if we really might face the 3rd string QB.

 
At 4:02 PM, Blogger Toal for UFL MVP said...

Ry,

As long as the bar has WiFi and a laptop with digital output then can run an HDMI cable to feed to their HDTV's - pretty simple actually, but I guess Atlantic Beer Garden can't do it.

 
At 4:41 PM, Blogger mod34b said...

ah-hemmm....the bars need permisison from ESPN...they can't just turn on the computer and start showing the program to paying customers. Copyright laws.

 
At 11:29 PM, Blogger CT said...

Funny Groh comment referencing the Tennessee situation.

He'll be a good coordinator next year.

 
At 10:21 AM, Blogger Tom said...

Game in Virginia, not vs VA Tech: We played at Richmond in 1971 and beat them 24-0.
That was a 9-2 Joe Yukica team which was not deemed "bowl eligible." His 1973 team (7-4); 1974 team (8-3); 1975 team (7-4) and 1976 team (8-3) were all better than the 1971 team, and played tougher schedules. But they all stayed home at the end of the regular season.

 
At 4:01 PM, Blogger Tony77019 said...

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