What can the stats tell us about the basketball swoon
From the beginning of this blog I've been a big believer in college hoops stat guy Kenpom. While trying to figure out what is wrong this year, I went to look at his BC profile and compared it to our 2005 profile. I assumed we were better shots in 2005. I was wrong (2005-- Effective FG%: 49.2 ; 2010-- Effective FG%: 49.1 ). In fact our effective FG% is better now than then.
So what's the reason for the struggles now? I think the biggest factor is that we are not getting to the line as often as 2005 did. Back then we generated 23.6% of our points from foul shooting. Now we only get 18.7%. Why the difference? I don't think we are taking those shots close to the basket that invite physical play and fouls. It is such a waste too since, Sanders and Trapani close to the basket should mean easy points.
Our defense was also better then but there is no smoking gun to the difference. We just did every defensive thing a little better then.
So can we fix it before Duke? Kenpom doesn't think so...he only gives us a 3% chance to beat the Blue Devils.