Will probation impact USC in 2013, 2014?
I've been focusing on the conference realignments, so I haven't mentioned the NCAA's sanctions against Southern Cal. The Trojans were hit with a two-year bowl ban and a 30 scholarship reduction (spread over three years). Although USC leadership was whining about the bowl bans, the scholarship issues will be more impactful. But how impactful is the question. Will it even matter by the time we play USC in 2013 and 2014? Let's look at the two most similar cases and how long it took the powers to recover.
Hit with scholarship reduction beginning in 2002
2002 record: 10-3
2003 record: 4-9
2004 record: 6-6
2005 record: 10-2
Hit with scholarship reduction beginning in 1996
1996 record: 9-3
1997 record: 5-6
1998 record: 9-3
1999 record: 9-4
As you can see, the second year has been when the programs bottom out. By that time most of your experienced talent has graduated and your less talented and smaller recruiting classes are more important to the program.
Using the same patter for USC, you would have to expect the 2010 season to be solid with the worst of it coming in 2011. By the time we play them in 2013 they should be back on the upswing. But I do have one caveat in all of this -- I don't think much of Lane Kiffin as a coach. I don't see him as the type that will 1) see this out and stay at USC, 2) have the plan in place to return them to the Carroll glory days.
Regardless of how good they are or who the coach is, I still plan on making the trip out to see BC in the Coliseum. Let's hope the Trojans troubles make for easy wins for BC.