Friday, June 11, 2010

Will probation impact USC in 2013, 2014?

I've been focusing on the conference realignments, so I haven't mentioned the NCAA's sanctions against Southern Cal. The Trojans were hit with a two-year bowl ban and a 30 scholarship reduction (spread over three years). Although USC leadership was whining about the bowl bans, the scholarship issues will be more impactful. But how impactful is the question. Will it even matter by the time we play USC in 2013 and 2014? Let's look at the two most similar cases and how long it took the powers to recover.


Hit with scholarship reduction beginning in 2002

2002 record: 10-3
2003 record: 4-9
2004 record: 6-6
2005 record: 10-2

Hit with scholarship reduction beginning in 1996

1996 record: 9-3
1997 record: 5-6
1998 record: 9-3
1999 record: 9-4

As you can see, the second year has been when the programs bottom out. By that time most of your experienced talent has graduated and your less talented and smaller recruiting classes are more important to the program.

Using the same patter for USC, you would have to expect the 2010 season to be solid with the worst of it coming in 2011. By the time we play them in 2013 they should be back on the upswing. But I do have one caveat in all of this -- I don't think much of Lane Kiffin as a coach. I don't see him as the type that will 1) see this out and stay at USC, 2) have the plan in place to return them to the Carroll glory days.

Regardless of how good they are or who the coach is, I still plan on making the trip out to see BC in the Coliseum. Let's hope the Trojans troubles make for easy wins for BC.


Nick P. said...

I read today that USC's rising juniors and seniors can transfer without having to sit out a year. That in my mind is the bigger news and probably what would set the program back the furthest in the short term. This is wishful thinking, but I love to see BC poach some of their upper classmen, perhaps someone with roots in the northeast.

Erik said...

I think they'd be able to sustain their winning despite the sanctions if they still had the Pete Carroll allure. Without him, Kiffin is unproven at USC so he's trying to convince players to come based on what the previous coaches did.

BCDisco said...


CT said...

Kiffin recruited very well at Tennessee and has recruited very well at USC in his first year, despite a rocky tenure at Rocky Top. The guy is an ass, but he did coach well at UT. That team made major improvements during the course of the season. Kiffin is all about Kiffin, but he just so happens to, at first blush, coach up a team pretty well. If you like having an ass with a hot wife for a coach.

USC is screwed for the next three years. And, remember, if Pac 10 expanion includes Texas and Oklahoma, et al, these sanctions couldn't come at a worse time.

Amazing what one player can do to tarnish a school's reputation. Cheaters.

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