Monday, August 29, 2011

Season Prediction Part II: best case scenario

I don't know how much of it has come through in my writing, but I really think Chase Rettig is on a path to be a great QB. My optimism in him has me still believing we can win the ACC. But even if he is great. And even if Montel and Andre recover quickly. And even if the OLine starts playing like "Oline U" I still can't see us winning it all with Spaz calling the shots. Take all the petty things I might gripe about Spaz aside, I still see a game manager in the TOB mold. With both, I always felt the way they approached the season or the schedule was with a "win three out of four" games mentality. That will be good for some nice seasons but won't win a division or conference. To do that you need to go for broke. Until I see Spaz display that sort of tactics, I think the following is our most realistic "best case scenario."


Best Case Scenario


Northwestern. Win. We pick off Persa a few times and contain their running game. Rettig looks good and BC wins comfortably.


at Central Florida. Win. BC wins in a tough, low scoring game. Win two respectable out of conference wins, BC nears the Top 25 and people are feeling pretty good about the season.


Duke. Win. A big coming out party for Rettig against a bad Duke defense. The game has somewhat of a back and forth feel, but BC grinds the clock in the fourth quarter to seal the deal.


UMass. Win. BC smashes UMass. The defense creates multiple turnovers. With the win, BC enters the polls for the first time in the Spaz era.


Wake Forest. Win. A closer game than expected but BC holds on. It is also the first sell out of the season. The hype is starting to build.


at Clemson. Win. Another "big stage" game as ESPN picks up the game and puts it in prime time. BC handles Clemson's new uptempo scheme. The team is getting national respect and approaches the Top 10. They are also eligible for a bowl. Spaz critics (like me) are getting a lot of "I told you so"s.


at Virginia Tech. Loss. This is a bubble burster. BC plays their worst game of the season. Rettig and the offensive line get rattled. VT's special teams make a few big plays. Huge letdown all around.


at Maryland. Win. I think Randy Edsall will be a decent coach at Maryland, but I think his first year will be a bit of a messy transition. BC has no problem in this game.


Florida State. Loss. BC loses a close game. This loss really stings as it puts us behind FSU in the division race.


NC State. Win. BC's defense really controls this game. They shutdown their run and force Glennon into some mistakes.


at Notre Dame. Loss. BC comes up short in a shoot out. Another sting as we fall out of the rankings and lose any chance of going to a second tier bowl.


at Miami. Win. At this point Florida State has already finished their ACC slate, so we know we cannot win the division. Regardless, BC plays well and concludes the conference record 6-2.


With a 9-3 (6-2) record, most BC fans feel very good about the regular season. That enthusiasm carries over to the the folks at the Sun Bowl. They select BC to face Oregon State. We win a close game to conclude the season 10-3 and ranked. There is a great feeling around the program, especially with Rettig returning.


Now splash some water on your face. As I said, I think this is in the realm of possibility but not what will actually happen. Tuesday I will post my actual predictions.

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18 Comments:

At 3:03 PM, Blogger EL MIZ said...

i would be thrilled with a 10-3 season. that said, i don't think we really know what we have with spaz as a game manager and coach until this season.

why?

because the first two seasons it took a good coach to get the team into the Bowl season. spaz's first season he had no QB and his best player (herzy) was diagnosed with cancer. we manage to go bowling. his second season he was still dealing with an under-recruited offense by jags and a truly awful OC (whether tranquill was his fault or not, i think it affected his approach and game strategy).

now its his 3rd season. he is largely playing with players he recruited on both sides of the ball. he has his own QB in rettig who looks like he's ready to break out. he really took his time this offseason to make the right call on the OC and it looks like he did with rogers. i am willing to extend Spaz the benefit of the doubt and hope that he will go FTW a bit more this year.

in my best case scenario (where i am optimistic on spaz), BC pulls out either the VT or FSU game and makes the ACC championship game.

we shall see. can't wait to see the new offense live in person this saturday. go eagles

 
At 3:39 PM, Blogger mod34b said...

Curious about one thing ATL. If Rogers is the OC, what makes you think Spaz will be managing the Offense in the game?

I think you recently expressed some concern about how effective Rogers would be as a game manager/play caller. Now you are seeing Spaz as the game manager?? Sure they need to work together, but I see Rogers calling most of the Offensive shots. Is that inaccurate?

I view Spaz as more of a CEO type who will be delegating during the game to specialized managers -- OC & DC - and handling the press at half and post-game. At least I hope so.

 
At 4:05 PM, Blogger Rob said...

Its depressing that this is the best possible season you can see, but I think you're right. My "maybe it could happen" dream season has Spaz proving us all wrong and this team going 10-2 by winning every game it should, two very tough wins out of the FSU, ND, Clemson, VTech bunch, and wins against NCState, Miami and Maryland.

I'll keep dreaming until it doesn't happen. I don't think Spaz has it, and my biggest concern is that we'll go 7-6, Gene will deem that acceptable and we'll be back for another year. But I'd love for him and more importantly the team, to prove me wrong.

ATL, hate to say it, but I'm going to have to skip your "likely outcome" post as I'm seeing a depressing 7-6 underachieving year prediction coming.

 
At 4:17 PM, Blogger JBQ said...

I would say very good analysis. The first two games will tell the story ad nauseum. There is no doubt that Rettig has the credentials. He is a "beach bunny" from California and was recruited by USC. We shall see what we shall see and then we'll see who gets "put on the grill". One note is on VT special teams that you alluded to. This is a definite BC shortcoming and from postings so far it appears to be even less important than in the past. You have to use the "big boys playbook" that Frank Beamer always uses. Look at his success!

 
At 4:19 PM, Blogger ATL_eagle said...

Mod34b:

Rogers will still have the game plan, but Spaz still controls clock, timeouts and when to kick, punt or go for it on 4th. Spaz has shown no ability to manage clock. And I will be shocked the first time he ever fakes a punt or tries anything daring. He would rather take a knee.

 
At 4:59 PM, Blogger I'm copping two... said...

Does anyone know if ESPN U also simulcasts games on ESPN3.com? I thought they did so, but I'm not sure. Just want to know if I need to get to a bar by 9 AM PST to watch the eagles or if I can watch from home. Thanks!

 
At 5:19 PM, Blogger Big Jack Krack said...

This week I'm going to concentrate on the players and their enthusiasm for the game. We have a huge test for our defense in this Northwestern Team. Their defense has a huge test as well!!!!!

I don't want to second guess Spaziani at this point, easy as that is. It's negative energy and I can't enjoy the whole experiense if I have a sour puss going in.

As I have said before, Persa could put up a couple of TD's before most BC fans are in our seats. We need to be extra savvy on defense during our first game of the season.

I love BC football the same way I love golf - I remember the great stretches and great shots - and forget the others (to the extent I can). Let's embrace this team - the players deserve this! They are us.

Go Eagles.

 
At 5:55 PM, Blogger AlbanyEagle said...

BJK - Love the attitude!

I'm with you.
Can't wait to hit the Mass Pike early Saturday.

 
At 6:26 PM, Blogger Dan said...

I know I'm in the optimist camp, but I see this as being closer to the most likely scenario for us this year.

Also, I don't know about you guys but I feel like this offense is gonna come out swinging this week and go nuts. Wouldn't be surprised to see the first play be a run (we r bc afterall) but then after a collective groan by the diehards, Roger let's it loose. Granted this means nothing about whether Persa also goes nuts but I think we're putting up points this week.

 
At 8:38 PM, Blogger BCBCBC said...

you gotta remember that Jags' wife took over writing this blog ever since spaz was hired.

 
At 8:54 PM, Blogger Scott said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

 
At 8:58 PM, Blogger Scott said...

Hey Bill, before we see the "expected case projection," I'd like to see your prediction for how last year's BC team would have done if it faced this schedule, just to set a baseline to measure this years' (hopeful) progress.

I realize that's a bit unfair, b/c it brings the GT travesty forward. But I look back, and i have to think the 2010 team would have been lucky to post 4-7, perhaps 3-8, given that you are subbing in some much harder games, like veteran-led NW/CFU (over Kent & Syracuse), stronger ND, Clemson on road, Miami over Virginia, stronger FSU, stronger VA Tech on 4 days rest. Last years' team would have lost all those. I do think 7-8 wins this year is real progress over last 7 wins. But the real measure of progress is if we are competitive in the 4-5 losses, because this entire returns in 2012, and should take another big step.

 
At 9:40 PM, Blogger eagle1331 said...

I get more and more excited as the weeks of the summer go on for the "Boys of Fall" to hit the field again (sorry for the obligatory Kenny Chesney reference).

I don't think Rogers would have come aboard if Spaz didn't grant him full control of the offense, including, to some degree, punting/kicking. He has a pretty solid list of credentials to come into a situation where his control regresses.

I understand the pessimism about Spaz, but as someone who worked for the team when he was DC and I was a student, he really does have a ton of love for the kids, enthusiasm for football, and passion for the school. Perhaps he doesn't show it well with the media or with body language on game day, but he truly does.

I hope for his sake this is the year that it all comes together and everyone can see that... where he loosens up, has some fun and the team/fans feed off of it...

I think he has 1 year left no matter what the outcome, but if he pulls it out this year I see him getting an extension, much to Bill's delight. He's got his kids now it's time for him to prove what he's got and it's time for us to back him. It's a new season, let's bring back the positive outlook and have some faith. We are BC, after all..

(though if we lose this week I'll be calling for his head)

 
At 11:28 PM, Blogger Walter said...

Since when is realism for the best case scenario?

In our best case scenario we still lose to FSU/VTECH/ND?

It's highly unlikely that all three of those schools will be good and not disappoint themselves.

Undefeated national champions is the only best case scenario.

 
At 9:21 AM, Blogger Sarum80 said...

Right on Walter!! 14 - 0

Let's go Eagles!!!!

 
At 11:22 AM, Blogger Jeff said...

I can't believe the "best case scenario" doesn't involve us at least playing in the ACC Championship game. I'd rather have a worse record, but play in that game, than see what you predicted unfold. Who says 6-2 won't be good enough to advance - most years it is!

 
At 12:20 PM, Blogger Big Jack Krack said...

Of course all league games are huge but the FSU game will make the difference if we can go 6-2. We must beat them and hope they lose one other.

Jeff - I like our best case to be at least the ACCCG as well as you.

Walter - sometime in my lifetime would be nice, and I have been a diehard fan for a long time.

 
At 1:03 PM, Blogger eagleboston said...

14-0?? One game at a time guys. One game at a time.

 

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