Tuesday, July 23, 2013

Crazy Predictions: A Season Preview. Part 3: Andre Williams won't rush for more than 500 yards

Having been at this a long time, I try to keep things fresh. For this year's Season Previews I am going to make a few outlandish predictions based on my hunches. 

This prediction is not intended to disparage Andre Williams. It is more about our running game and the frustration I predict for this season.

Addazio has made it clear he wants to run the ball. Or at least establish the run. But just because he wants to run doesn't mean BC will do it well this year. Our offensive line hasn't been good for years and lost two of its better starters from last year. Word out of Spring Ball is that the offensive line was still a "work in progress." There are talent issues, depth issues and relearning some fundamentals. A great offensive line coach can perform triage and miracles. I have hope for Justin Frye, but he is still very young. Maybe he will get the line to come together right away. I just have my doubts.

"But what about Addazio's background as an OLine coach?" you might ask. It helps. I like former OL coaches as head coaches because they understand the importance of building from the line. But Addazio will need to upgrade the talent before we dominate running again. (I know 5th year Matt Patchan helps but let's see if he stays healthy.)

I take Addazio at his word that he will pass the ball this year. Rettig is his best offensive weapon and he can get rid of the ball under pressure. Throwing a lot will limit Williams' carries.

Finally, I think we will see much more running back by committee this year. If Kimble stays healthy, he will get plenty of opportunities this year. Myles Willis will get a chance to play right away. Dudeck was a Spaz favorite, but I see no reason why he wouldn't get some playing time.

As much as I would love to see BC's offense explode this year, I know we will struggle at times. Based on impressions and gossip in spring, most expect those struggles to come from running the ball. I wish Williams the best, but don't think he's going to surpass last season's totals.


Erik said...

Since we passed 70 pct of the time last year, it should have been cake to run the ball when we tried. It was impossible. The line needs to drastically improve. All we can hope for is healthy bodies and a consistent lineup will help them get better.

EL MIZ said...

i had assumed upon seeing the title of the post that you were going to talk about either Kimble or Willis seizing the job and becoming the work horse. surprised that you think Williams will go for less than 500, but you are right - Rettig is our best weapon, and our 2nd best offensive weapon is a WR (Amidon).

it will be interesting to see if new coaches can "coach up" this group at all, and maybe Patchan does help a bit. but maybe Spaz just so dropped the ball on recruiting that we need to wait a few years to get some new blood in there.

JBQ said...

Williams can be very explosive. It was obvious that the previous treated him like a firecracker. Good coaching will bring a diversified offense. It may take awhile for this to develop. Nevertheless, till they line up in the tunnel, the "honeymoon" still lives. The "Surf Dude" looked nervous. Cutting to the Chase, if he can relax, he will be fine.

John said...

I hope you are wrong, ATL.

As bad as the line was last year, Deuce Finch was able to run (the few times we saw him). If AW has improved, he should be able to also, although I don't think he's as fast as Deuce getting to the hole.

Kimble is quick off the blocks, so to speak.

mod10aeagle said...

When your O-line is weak you can't afford to have a back that doesn't hit the line of scrimmage (whether there's a hole there or not) quickly, with power and forward lean. While Williams seems strong and had his moments, I just can't delete the images of him lumbering to the line and hitting holes backwards. If Deuce could've held onto the ball, he would've been far more effective than Williams. Kimble seemed to have skills but never got enough reps to develop.

mod34b said...

The issue for the offense is going to be quick play and variety. We were so utterly predictable and so slow to get our plays off that even Duke could "dial us up." Add to that the fact that our opponent's defense was always very well rested (b/c our bend-don't-break crap D was always on the field), and it was a recipe for disaster.

If the offense is more varied and the pace quicker, we should be able to find some day light running.

I'd also like to see some actual use of TEs - short inside passing. Last year, there was very little TE play (or so it seems)

JBQ said...

The really important preseason statistics are in. Stanford is number one, Notre Dame is number 24, and BC is number 35. It's the rating of U.S. Colleges by Forbes.