Thursday, September 05, 2013

BC-Wake Forest preview

You will never find a more critical second game for two BCS conference bottom dwellers. Like BC, Wake enters the season with modest expectations. They think they can get back to a bowl, but are realistic about beating the conference heavyweights. This is one of their toss ups. It is one of ours too. If BC wants to get to six wins, this game is critical. We've already established that Addazio has confidence entering every game. That's good. But if he wants the players and fans believing, he needs to win this one.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
I know this is not a popular opinion but I love the Friday night timeslot. I recognize that I would feel differently if I attended games in person. I am sure that if I were younger and had a true social life, Friday night games would cause conflicts. But as a married dad with young children, Friday night games are fantastic. The kids will be in bed for most of the game so there is little noise and fewer distractions. It also frees up my Saturday so I don't have to worry about finding time to watch a BC game around soccer, swimming and Scouts. There's no guilt about checking the scores on my phone during Saturday evening Mass. Selfishly it cannot get better. If BC could play all our home games on Friday night for the next five years, I would be very appreciative! Season ticket holders and people without young kids be damned!

Three Simple Keys
1. Stop the run. Wake is a bit of a mirror to our team. This year they have a renewed emphasis on running the ball despite a patchwork offensive line. There will still be plenty of misdirection but we need to win the battles up front. We also need to crash down on any option exchange.
2. Get big plays out of the running game. No one would have any problems with us running the ball so much if it wasn't such drudgery. Williams had one long run on the TD. You cannot build an offense around the occasional explosive play. We need to get big gainers consistently.
3. Don't waste yards on Special Teams. We cannot handicap ourselves by letting punts roll all the time. Returns are optimal. Fair catches should be the worst case.

Gambling Notes
-- Grobe is 28-38 in road game while coaching Wake
-- Wake has lost four straight road openers
-- Addazio was 7-8 in conference games at Temple
The current line is BC-3

Wake Forest was also Spaz and Jags' first ACC home game.

Scoreboard Watching
None of our future ACC opponents have true bellweather games this week. However, Miami is playing Florida. We don't play the 'Canes this year, but the game could be another huge boost for the conference. Like last week's Clemson game, Miami can make a statement about the quality of play and the true strength of our conference.

I hope to see...
Rettig spread the ball around more. I touched on it in the WR post on Wednesday, but great offenses and great QBs get everyone involved. We are lucky to have Amidon, but we won't be a great or even above average offense until we establish a second, third and fourth threat. Plus when you get everyone involved things get easier for our more talented guys like Amidon.

BC is in trouble if...
their backs and wide receivers are wide open again in crossing patterns. I attribute last week's few big plays to BC adjusting to a new system. If we haven't fixed those breakdowns, then I will begin to worry about beating Wake and anyone else on our schedule. Let's hope these were mental mistakes. If they were physical than we really do have talent issues.

Bottom Line
Wake's defense looked good last week, but I don't know how much weight you can put on their win over Presbyterian. Even at an FCS level, they are not nearly as good as Villanova. I think we will move the ball like last week (run early to open up the pass). I also think our defense should be capable of slowing Wake down. Unlike last week -- where we were playing catchup -- I think we go ahead early in this game and control throughout.
Final Score: BC 27, Wake Forest 17


mod34b said...

Interesting match up. Key players are the same from last year, except we lack Spaz. Let's see if Dazz can do what Spaz could not over the last 2 years: beat WF.

In last year's game, WF "stacked the box" (or is that just their normal D?), forcing BC to throw 75% of the time. Rettig was picked off 3 times and stripped for a fumble once. BC rushed for ONLY 12 yards. Even taking out the negative sack yardage, BC ran 18 times and avg'd less than 2 yards a carry.

THAT HAS TO CHANGE! But will it?? WF defense is pretty good and the DL is still anchored by pre-season All American Whitlock (only 250 lbs!)

BC needs balance. They will need a lot of variety against WF

Last year WF exploited the Spaz Cushion -- throwing 61 times but for an avg of only 5 yard a completion. BC needs to shut down the short route, apply pressure and make WF throw long(er). That should work, unless BC gives up lots of long balls -- which they seemed to do last week.

BC 28, WF 24

EL MIZ said...

BC was able to take advantage of the play action in the Nova game - maybe they didn't do it as much as they should have, but when they ran the play fakes guys were wide open and we converted a handful of nice pass plays off of them. doing that on Wake will be critical - nobody can run with success when there are 9 guys in the box.

hopefully this game provides yet another example of how inferior the coaches were last year. Spaz literally did not care, it could not be more obvious. last year's effort coming off of a win was a joke. thank God he is gone.

Dudeck had 14 carries last year, Williams only had 4. that was when Finch was in Spaz's doghouse for no reason and not playing. i think we will be able to run the ball much more effectively, and without our "broken" defense, should be able to keep Price and Campanaro in check.

BC 21-Wake 13

Goberry said...

Not with you on the Friday Night game. I can't really see a university justifying cancelling classes (which they are doing after 4:00) so that the football team can be on ESPN 2 when every potential recruit will be busy playing his own game.

eagleboston said...

My kids are in high school and college. The big problem with Friday nights is the games compete against the classic Friday Night Lights high school games. My high school is playing their biggest rival tomorrow night. I'll be going to that game and will have to record BC.

Ry said...

There are very few, if any, classes that meet past 4 on a Friday.

Claver2010 said...

"There are very few, if any, classes that meet past 4 on a Friday."

I can't recall a single class at BC that let out after 4 on a Friday.

Friday games are impossible if you don't live & work in Mass and very difficult if you do.

Don't like it at all, especially when we only have 6 home games.

JBQ said...

"Are you ready for some football?" The only minor criticism so far is in grooming a backup to Rettig. There are always nicks and scrapes. Actually, that is how Matt Ryan got his chance due to an injury to the starter. So far, Rettig is great. His "surf board" mentality has kept him relaxed. His trek from California remains a well respected mystery.