Addazio made a point that we are starting over with the second half of the season. Maybe North Carolina is taking the same approach in the hope of putting behind their 1-5 start. When the schedule came out this seemed like one of our tougher games. Now I don't know. There is still talent in Chapel Hill and they've been in some of their games. Let's hope they don't finally put things together this week.
What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
This week proved that the college football community has really short memories. We were a good story after giving Clemson a scare. Then we're off and Clemson gets crushed. Suddenly we are dropping in Power Rankings and a big underdog (considering we are facing a 1-5 team). I don't want pats on the back for being 3-3 but I think BC should win this week and should finish strong. We have our issues, but so does everyone else.
Three Simple Keys
1. Disrupt Eric Ebron's from running his routes. This is the matchup that scares me. Ebron is good. Really good. Probably the best Tight End we will see all year. Our Linebackers (and even some of our Satefies) are not great in pass coverage. My suggestion is blitz heavy at Ebron so that he has to stay in to protect.
2. 3rd down defense. North Carolina can grind it out like we do. If we are going to dictate tempo and be ball control, he have to have the ball. The key is stopping them on 3rd down and keeping their possessions short.
3. Get Willis involved in the passing game. Against Clemson, he proved again that he is good in space. I would love to see a few more screens to him or another wheel route like his first TD.
Gambling Notes
-- Larry Fedora has never lost more than six games in a season
-- BC is 1-7 against the spread in our last 8 road games
-- Addazio is 0-2 on the road as BC's coach
The current line is BC+7
Factoid
North Carolina is the only ACC we have not defeated as the away team.
Scoreboard Watching
I could be way off in my assessment but I think Virginia Tech is terribly overrated. I don't think Duke will beat them, but I do think it will be close. We can learn a lot about the Hokies based on how they handle this game.
I hope to see...
Offensive balance. Addazio preaches it, but we haven yet to really see it on the field. So far one aspect works, while the other trudges along. That shouldn't happen with a good offense. I think we are now at the stage where we know what works and what doesn't. It is on Day to build an effective gameplan around those elements that are working.
BC is in trouble if...
We don't force turnovers from Williams and Renner. These guys both have the ability to make big plays and keep plays alive. The flipside is the occasional carelessness. We need to mirror our Wake Forest game and get the ball off of their mistakes.
Bottom Line
I know they're favored. I know we've never won in Chapel Hill. My rational side knows that their "close losses" to VT and Miami aren't all that different from our close losses to Clemson and FSU. Yet I still feel fairly confident about this game. I think we are pretty conservative and avoid critical turnovers and grind it out. Maybe UNC gets a late TD to make the game appear closer than it was. BC wins and sets themselves up well for the second half of the season.
Final Score: BC 27, North Carolina 20
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4 comments:
How could anyone who knows football rank Wake ahead of BC? BC after leading for three quarters, loses by 10 to Clemson and Wake loses by 45. BC beats Wake by two touchdowns and gives FSU a game.2. One of UNC's defeats was a blowout at home to East Carolina. UNC should get credit for close contests vs Miami and VT. BC's efforts against FSU and Clemson would seem to top what UNC did. 3.The Wake game was a pivotal one for BC. Even with a defeat at UNC they still have a chance at a bowl. Had they lost to the Deacons and Heels and been 2-5 it is unlikely there is post season play. That said I concur with ATL in expecting a victory. FSU and Clemson are vastly superior to UNC. UNC is closer to Wake as a team. If BC plays their usual mistake free style win #4 is obtainable. Disagree with ATL on VT. They may not be top 10 but VT will beat Duke easily. Duke hasn't played anyone.4. BC may be very close to being a contender. Thanks to the substantial upgrade in coaching. What would have been the outcome of the FSU and Clemson games if you flipped the QBs? Two BC victories? A split? Hope Daz is not puffing up his team when he assesses his o-line as good as any.
Should be an interesting game. We run well; they don't defend the run well (last in ACC). They pass well (Eric Ebron is a great player who will be very tough to defend) ; we don't defend the pass well (last in ACC in opponent pass rating) but UNC's pass defense is bad too.
I think this will be a close one decided by who profits most from turnovers .
BC 34 - UNC 31
I've watched a couple UNC games and their defense is bad.
Gotta win this one-it's right there for the taking.
Win a road game. I don't care who we beat. That'll build confidence.
By the way, Myles Willis went to my high school. Must be nice for him to not have to decide who gets the ball on every offensive play.
I had this game as a loss at the beginning of the year. I'm a little more optimistic now but we always seems to play poorly in Chapel Hill. A win would be a huge, huge boost for the Daz era and would almost certainly put BC on the path to a bowl bid.
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