Thursday, November 07, 2013

BC-New Mexico State preview

Looking ahead is a cliche for a reason. Teams -- especially young ones or ones not used to winning -- can think they are better than they are. We all feel good about BC, but that doesn't mean we can take any game or situation lightly. We don't have the talent or offense to do that. Addazio has pushed all the right buttons this season. Now let's hope he pushes the ones that have the guys ready for anything out in New Mexico.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
Spenser Rositano is supposedly done for his season and his career due to repeated head injuries.  At least that is the word among the message boards and blogs. Yet no official word from BC. Rositano is still on the depth chart and some guys are still on the roster who haven't suited up all year. Why not clarify? I will never understand the secretiveness or deception that goes into this stuff. I respect privacy and respect gamesmenship and strategy, but give the fans the respect they deserve and the players their moment to share the news. The gossip gets out their regardless of what BC and Addazio wants. Might as well address it and make sure things are accurate.

Three Simple Keys
1.  Open up the passing game. We don't need to grind it out this week. In fact, grinding it out probably hurts us as it shortens the game and limits possessions. Why keep this close? It only invites NM State back in the game.
2. Contain YAC. Our D created a lot of big plays, but we are still very soft in the passing game. Let's improve that this week in coverage and in tackling.
3. Go back to some of the old stuff. BC does a good job of adding new wrinkles to our plays and formations. The flipside is that you shelve things that worked earlier. I want to save wrinkles for our remaining ACC games and use some of the stuff that worked earlier in the year. Let's see the throwback passes to Parsons. Or how about the quick passes off the read option exchange. Or maybe a bubble screen.

Gambling Notes
-- Addazio has yet to win a road game
-- BC is 1-8 against the spread in our last nine road games
-- New Mexico State is 1-9 in their last ten home games
The current line is BC-24

New Mexico will be the 35th  36th state where BC has played a football game. After this game, the remaining states that have not been blessed to host BC will be Alaska, Arkansas, Delaware, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Mexico, North Dakota, Oregon, South Dakota, Washington and Wyoming. Of those states left, I think South Dakota is the least likely to ever host BC. All the others either have a FBS team, might host a bowl or has a FCS team that might make the jump.
[CORRECTION: Brian pointed out that we did play Saint Louis in St. Louis.]

Scoreboard Watching
Syracuse-Maryland provides a look at two future opponents, but I am going to pay attention to UVA-UNC. Even if we get to six wins, there may not be enough ACC bowl slots available. It would help our cause if a few more ACC teams lost. Carolina has five losses now. It would be sure nice to see them get to six...and then seven.

I hope to see...
Andre Williams carry the ball less than 20 times. With the way he runs, Williams is probably getting too many touches. I know why we are doing it but that doesn't mean that there isn't risk. We need a healthy Williams to beat NC State, Syracuse and Maryland. Don't overuse him now.

BC is in trouble if...
One of the key players gets injured. I think we will win this game regardless, but a key injury could derail our final stretch.

Bottom Line
We are facing one of the worst teams in college football. Every BCS Conference team they've faced, has crushed the Aggies. I know that BC is coming off a big win. I understand the challenges of winning on the road. Yes, Doug Martin's familiarity with our offensive personnel is a Wild Card. But none of that should really matter. BC has enough power and speed to control this game throughout. I think we play our best game of the year and win going away.
Final Score: BC 38, New Mexico State 13


Aaahhhbuckles said...

There was a blurb in the print edition of the Washington Post yesterday stating that Rositano had retired from football due to repeated concussions. I believe they had quotes from him.

Knucklehead said...

I would sit KPL this week or at least give him the second half, if blow out.

He is a tackling machine but banged up.

We are in trouble in the last three if he is seriously hurt.

This could be a game where NMST is fired up and looking to make it chippy - as mentioned their head-coach was bounced by BC.

They could be out for blood more than a win.

JBQ said...

I am sorry to hear about Rositano. He was playing pretty well. What does this day about the current physical state of the game? There is a university study which claims that the "leather helmet" actually protected the head better than the current monstrous extension to the head. Everyone wore leather a la Tom Harmon while his son Mark wore the newer version which has evolved even more. There is no doubt that for various reasons, the leather helmet was lots safer because you couldn't use it as a weapon. Unless, the NCAA treats this "threat to the game" as a threat, then there will be other good guys like Rositano who fall by the wayside. Football is becoming more and more like a "cage fight" and the "human cock fighting" which Senator McCain labeled Ultimate Fighting and Mixed Martial Arts. Is that where we want this to go. For the NCAA, it is all about generating money. Dr. Mark Emmert came from LSU as chancellor before Washington. The SEC is the most suspect conference of them all and Coach Saban has espoused a "super conference" where you pay the players. That is where football has gone. Tom Harmon and even Mark Harmon with the character of both are "dead and gone". In Mark's case, no one has told him yet. BC has to "take the point" as in "spear". Otherwise, there will be no more Doug Fluties, only Richie Incognitos and Ray Lewis's with his super cleaned white suit.

Big Jack Krack said...

I am sorry to her about Rositano as well, but applaud his decision. This is a sobering topic.

JBQ is correct about the helmet as a weapon.

It wasn't that many years ago that the players played both ways - 45 - 50 years ago.

When I was at BC, although the leather helmet was gone, players did not "tackle" with their heads.

They were also much leaner - even though still big, because they had to be in better shape endurance-wise. No TV timeouts, and "mass substitutions" were not allowed.

If revelations about long term health risks continue to mount, especially with the head injuries resulting in all sorts of negative consequences, this game might have to go backwards to survive.


Go BC - I hope you have an enjoyable experience in Las Cruces, NM.

mod10aeagle said...

The idea of going back to leather helmets, or no helmets seems to have some logic to it, but then I found this in a Time Magazine article from 2010: "Rugby, as it turns out, has plenty of problems with head injuries. According to one study, in South Africa about 14% of high school rugby players and 23% of professional and club players annually are diagnosed with concussions. Further, Michael Keating, the medical director for USA Rugby, says that a review of the scientific literature indicates that the number of incidences of concussions among rugby players and American-football players are similar. Some data suggest rugby incidence is 5% higher."

I know nothing about rugby, but the article also mentioned how rugby rules outlaw the use of the head and shoulders and limit players to arm tackles. And yet, plenty of concussions.

I found it surprising. Here's a link to the full article:


BCDisco said...

I'm pretty sure that after this game, the state of New Mexico WILL have been blessed to host BC.

mod34b said...

Maybe football leagues could switch to bike helmets, that's PC for sure. If a player is just too mean (e.g., illegal levels of testosterone) and really smashes someone with his bike helmet (bastard!! spearing!!! ref!!!). The bike helmet will crack. The refs will see the crack and the sky will light up with yellow flags. The brute will then be promptly tossed (and made to sit alone on the bench for a time out). Everyone else will be really safe and happy.

Joseph said...

Thanks m34b. Very insightful as usual.

Bravesbill said...

BC basketball looks horrible today. Way too many turnovers esp traveling. Can't rebound and can't defend. Also can't shoot from the line. Hanlan looks horrible too. I've been a fan of Steve from the start but this is nothing to be excited about.