Thursday, October 30, 2014

BC-Virginia Tech preview

I don't know how a road game as an underdog can feel like a trap game, but this matchup sort of does. All the experts are picking us. The Hokies are struggling. Teams have run all over them and here we come with the best running QB in college football. What's not to like? I think we will win, but I hope the team isn't taking anything for granted.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game) I think how a team performs relative to their expectations means more in college football than any other major sport. At least it does for me personally. The College Football Playoff Committee released their first poll this week and I hardly cared. My team wasn't going to be involved and couldn't be even if we ran the table. However, that doesn't mean I am not enjoying this season and not looking forward to this game. I knew BC wasn't going to be a contender this year. But this team is entertaining and fun to root for and it feels like we are building towards something.

Three Simple Keys
1. Get Alston the ball in space. Did you see what Duke Johnson did last week? Although smaller, Alston has that same sort of allusiveness and can also make guys miss. This is not a great VT Defense. Our best should be able to make a few of their guys miss.
2. Collapse the pocket. Brewer is quick to throw the ball away if he is under pressure.
3. Stick with the run. Stopping the run will be a point of emphasis for them. We need to be patient and keep trying.

Gambling Notes
-- Beamer is 15-7 vs BC
-- BC has only defeated Virginia Tech in consecutive games once
-- Addazio is 5-4 in road games as BC's coach
The current line is BC+3.5

Henning and Jags both won on their first visits to Lane Stadium. Neither coach had a second visit while with BC.

Scoreboard Watching
The big game is actually Thursday night: Florida State vs. Louisville. Selfishly I am rooting for the Seminoles. I want BC to be the team that beats them and ends their streak.

I hope to see...
BC have a healthy lead in the 4th quarter. Addazio talks a lot about winning the 4th quarter, but statistically that is not a great strategy. Winning the 1st quarter leads to a better win probability. Obviously we want to win every quarter but playing to keep it close late invites games to slip through your fingers. Let's put people away and avoid another near meltdown.

BC is in trouble if...
We turn the ball over. I think Beamer Ball is mostly dead, but that doesn't mean that a costly turnover won't help VT. Think back to Willis' fumble on the kick return last week. We are lucky that didn't cost BC the game.

Bottom Line
I don't think Bud Foster respects our passing game. I expect him to crowd the box and just try to stuff our run. I am fine with that. I don't mind a sluggish game. I think putting such an emphasis at the line will either open up a passing play or two, or lead to a few long runs when someone misses a tackle. It will be low-scoring but Murphy makes enough big plays for BC to win.
Final Score: BC 21, Virginia Tech 13


Danny Boy said...

It felt to me (and BCI confirmed), but for a team that "wants to win the 4th quarter," our play calling is anything but productive. Our scoring drives are way down in the 2nd half.

Gone are the read options and misdirection plays, instead we are just blasting into the line for 2 yards. The plays that are successful in the first half need to be built on in the 2nd half.

You add wrinkles in the 2nd half, not take them away in a move towards the vanilla.

eagle1331 said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
eagle1331 said...

What I would like to see...

BC coming out passing. Open the game with a deep ball. It will completely throw VaTech off of its gameplan and open up the box for the run game.

mod34b said...

Danny Boy, i agree that the last few games there was not much read option going on. I kinda think BC was keeping that underwraps because a) it would not work against speedy/talented Clemson D and b) it was not needed against Woeful Wake (i realize that Wake was not as bad a predicted).

I think we will see more of that against VT. I hope so.

As for ATL saying "Get Alston the ball in space", I agree, just so long as it is not another slow developing 'Jet Sweep.' That play has lost it surprise value. I'd like to see Alston as our slot receiver.... Welker-esque.

I also think we will see Murphy throw the ball more...perhaps just to persuade old Bud Foster to "unpack the box." But I doubt we will se Murphy come out throwing. Ryan Day seems to always wants to "establish" the run before turning to the air.

eagleboston said...

I'm really concerned about this game. Tech has their backs against the wall and will be like caged tigers. If we come in and can't establish the run, we are toast.

All BC fans should hope for a win here as Florida State and L'ville will be significant challenges. Given our history, do any of us want bowl eligibility to come down to Syracuse? They have crushed our hopes so many times over the years.

CT said...

VT's offense is bad.

That's good.

Brown has no excuses.

EL MIZ said...

BC's D has been improving and hopefully the play can continue against a bad Va Tech offense.

would like to see the carries between Hilliman and Willis even out a bit. notwithstanding Myles' fumble last week, he makes plays.

2nd half offense has been puzzling, as others have mentioned. hope to see improvement there. if we are going to hang around and actually start winning games, we can't keep getting our butts kicked in the 2nd half.

Hoib said...

I don't get it. VTECH has an NFL caliber secondary and for various reasons, primarily injuries a very week front 7. We have one of the best rushing attacks in the country, and a bunch of FCS caliber receivers. So what do people want to see? More passing, because it will surprise them. Maybe FSU should come out in there game against us and just throw it 10 times. It sure would surprise us.

Hoib said...

Is the game on in the NYC area?