Thursday, October 22, 2015

BC-Louisville preview

We tend to get so focused on our frustrations and issues, that sometimes we don't realize other teams are struggling too. Louisville is one of them. They're young and have also had injuries. But the biggest difference between our 3-4 and their 2-4 is that they scheduled better opponents. But regardless if you are losing to an SEC power or an ACC underdog, losing takes a toll on the team. The key this week will be which team can recover from their struggles.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
Some people are viewing the youth movement as Addazio throwing in the towel on the season. I don't. But if BC stops competing in games and losses all the games the rest of the way, Addazio and Bates are in big trouble. I don't think BC fan expectations are too high, but we are not a "lovable loser" fanbase. People (myself included) will be outraged by 3-9. Fundraising will be an issue as will ticket sales in 2016. You can preach patience and development but you better compete and win on occasion.

Three Simple Keys
1. More designed runs for Smith. I am not sure why they are not doing this. Maybe they fear injury. I don't know. But we need him to run the ball more. Even if it is not successful, the threat of him running will open up other things.
2. QB pressure. The defense is dependent on it. Last week the front four couldn't do it on their own. We need them to step up this week.
3. Don't play field position. Addazio's inclination to punt in the opponent's territory is comical at this point. We need to be more aggressive. I would rather see Hail Mary's into the endzone than a punt.

Gambling Notes
-- Addazio is 6-7 on the road as BC's coach
-- Petrino is 27-4 at Papa John's
-- Petrino is 6-5 in ACC games
The current line is BC+7.5

Other than Louisville, BC has played two other Kentucky-based teams (Centre and Kentucky). Yet Louisville is the only program we've played in the state of Kentucky.

Scoreboard Watching
Duke goes to Virginia Tech this weekend. We're about to face the Hokies. They've been a hit or miss team this year. Will they show up next week at Alumni? I don't know. Let's see how they do against Duke.

I hope to see...
a long rushing TD. How has this not happened yet against a real team? Teams are still crowding the line. We still have some speed backs there. What we need is one guy to plow through.

BC is in trouble if...
We cannot control the clock. I don't like Addazio's mindset of always controlling the clock, but I think it is needed this week. It would also imply one or two long productive drives.

Bottom Line
I don't feel great about this game. While I think Smith will get the offense moving, I do think Petrino will find ways to attack this defense. I think it will be like Clemson with plenty of deep passes connecting, but with BC forcing even more turnovers. I think a late pick seals the must win for BC.
Final Score: BC 21, Louisville 17


EL MIZ said...

good point on the hail mary attempts. against FSU we chucked it down the field once and Ramsey got away with an almost comical PI (he just pushed the guy down) and the other FSU DB intercepted it. still, there was really nothing lost, as they got the ball around the 20. Addazio's conservatism has bordered on maddening.

last week against Clemson, down 17-10, we punted on 4th and 1 from the BC 45, pinned them at the 9, and gave up a FG. down 20-10, on 4th and 13 from the CLEMSON 33 (!!!) we punted, pinned them at the 2, and gave up a TD. how does Addazio justify these decisions?

Hoib said...

Va Tech gets their starting QB back this week.

mod34b said...

"I don't think BC fan expectations are too high, but we are not a 'lovable loser' fan base. People (myself included) will be outraged by 3-9. Fundraising will be an issue as will ticket sales in 2016. "

The biggest downside of a downslide will be a downturn in recruiting. (Darn good alliteration.)

Not too many 18 year olds want to sign up to be a "dud". #beadud vs. #beadude or may #dazisadud

Danny Boy said...

There has to be some fear of a Smith injury. Last week he was wearing the largest flack jacket I've ever seen. It was less a flack jacket and more a life preserver (pun fully intended).

I think with Willis back our ability to break a long run is drastically improved. He should be getting 70% of the carries. He finds holes better than the others, and gets through them even better. However, his success is dependent on our TEs and WRs blocking down field. I've yet to see Addazio make a block that he needed to. Between his blocking deficiencies and dropped pass last week, we're really missing our starting TEs.

I still fear that the field position battle is going to be as strong as ever. Daz is still going to keep it close to the vest, and that means having his best unit on the field, the defense. But if we start setting up 4th down with our 3rd down playcall, I'll be really happy.

What I want to know is why is Allston in the doghouse on offense? I know his punt returns are always an adventure, but lets get him the ball in space on offense. He is still one of our fastest, most elusive players. It's time to open things up, take a few chances, and see what we really have. Sure our young guys may make some mistakes, but they may really shine.

Hoib said...


It's more then the punt returns w/ Alston. He's had several drops as a receiver one of which led to a pick. He's just not getting it done.

dixieagle said...

I am completely over lousy clock management and cowardly play calling. I'm beginning to have an "Emperor's New Clothes" attitude towards Daz and Fitch; there really may be nothing of substance there.

Glad to see Willis back, and that gives me some hope.

mod34b said...

BC 17 - Louisville 14 (trying hard to keep it +++)

Stats on FBS games

Lv Score O - 95th BC Scoring D- 8th
Lv Rushing 0 - 104th BC Rush D - 2nd
Lv Passing O - 61 BC Pass D - 23
Lv Total O - 87 - BC Total D 2

BC should be able to contain L'ville's offense, unless last week's "exposure" of the Pass D was a sign of our over confidence in the Pass D. Kind think our Pass D is really not 23rd best in FBS

BC Score O - 128 th LV Scoring D - 63th
BC Rushing 0 - 46th LV Rush D - 62
BC Passing O - 125 LV Pass D - 61st
BC Total O - 125- LV Total D 53

Can our O make progress. There were small glimmers of hope last week. L'ville D is the weakest ACC defense we have seen. Duke Defense #4, Clemson #10, Wake #31, FSU #20

Looks like BC has the edge - but that is on paper. We saw how our "statistically best" D did on the actual field. L'ville has huge edge in game-day coaching.

Can we contain L'ville passing game? Can BC mount a run game? Can BC actually score?? Those are the issues.

BC 17 - LV 14

John said...

I didn't think Louisville was way better than us last year, but they sure looked like it in their dominating performance at Alumni Field.

It looked as though they were prepared, we weren't and couldn't adjust.

I'm fearful the same will be the case again this year, although hopefully our D will make a strong showing.

Go BC - find a way to win, in spite of the pitiful offensive ranking (scoring, passing, total just about "DFL") displayed above by mod34b.

Gary Tranquil - you may not have been the worst, and that's hard to imagine.

EL MIZ said...

optimism aside, i smell another Addazio Special at the end of the 2nd Q. BC gets the ball at the BC 40-yard line with 2 timeouts. BC decides to run the clock out so they run a dive. they run the clock down and on 2nd down run another dive, only this time Willis breaks it deep into Louisville territory. Addazio has "the look" in his eyes and can't figure out what to do. the clock slowly ticks down. 10 seconds run off the clock after the chains are re-set and the clock restarts before Addazio decides to call a timeout. he can't figure out what play to run and BC gets a delay of game out of the timeout. the next play (a run) is a loss and we are moved out of field goal range, at which point we just let the clock run out. the 3 points come back to haunt us.

Louisville 17-BC 14.

Napolean Bonaparte said...

Message to Daz: The team that scores the most points wins. Please make that your singular focus.

Hario said...

Louiville 20- BC 10

campy said...

Louisville 19
BC 2

dixieagle said...

Louisville 17 BC 10 :(

Hoib said...

El Miz

When exactly are we in field goal range? I think never. That's a big factor w/ the time management issue. If we had a dependable kicker, which we certainly don't, time management wouldn't be such a challenge. Of course Daz can't use the kicker issue as an excuse because he allowed it to happen.

Bravesbill said...

Louisville 27 - BC 6 (TD, missed XP)

mod34b said...

HOIB - Knoll hit from 40 last year. Our FG line starts at the 25 yards line

Big issue is the LV Pass game. The LV WR looked pretty good vs FSU. 307 yards passing.

CT said...

48-45 BC

CT said...

On second thought, 30-20 Louisville.

Big Jack Krack said...

I'd like to see Knoll do well. I think he has the leg for 45 yard FG's and last year is hopefully behind him.

The staff needs to give him his chance, and his teammates can pump him up.

If we reach the 37 yard line, don't punt - Knoll FG all the way.

Go BC.

bc1900 said...

Bravesbill, maybe the only sane, honest person on this thread.

CT said...

There's a first for everything

Bravesbill said...

In the words of the immortal Taylor Swift, "haters gonna hate hate hate hate hate."

mod34b said...

Our man Daz-aster spinning his excuse making pre Loiusville. Daz BS to Globe

One day,” he said, “we’re going to be a heck of a football team. We’re not there yet, but one day.’’

KY eagle said...

"More designed runs for Smith"? Can't see where that makes a difference without some threat / capability to move the ball through the air.
I'm also concerned with the defense never getting off the field due to the offense's inability to sustain drives.
UofL can be beaten but not with the poorly coached and unimaginative offense put forth the past two weeks.