Monday, September 26, 2016

What the Coaching Carousel means for BC

The College Football Coaching Carousel got off to an early start with a National Championship coach biting the dust just four games into the season. But LSU is just the first domino. USC could make a change. Maybe even Notre Dame. I don't think nor -- at this point -- want a change at BC, but what happens elsewhere will impact our team. It will also serve as a reminder of how precious these jobs are and how fluid power is within the ACC.


Coaching Changes among our opponents
Right now it feels like the best BC can finish in its own division is 4th place. FSU, Clemson and Louisville have the talent and coaching that we cannot match. But none of that is permanent. Both Jimbo Fisher and Bobby Petrino are prime targets for LSU. Fisher could also pursue NFL opportunities if he wanted to go to the next level. Two years from now, it is highly unlikely that both will still be coaching in the Atlantic Division. Despite their geographic and institutional advantages, neither program is guaranteed to make a good hire or keep winning at their current pace. (Remember the last time Louisville replaced Petrino?) Dabo Swinney seems well entrenched at Clemson, but don't think that he wouldn't go home to Alabama at his first opportunity. Saban is 64. He's not going to keep this pace forever.

All of that instability is good for BC. Our last great run coincided with a downturn at FSU and an extended mediocre period from Clemson. It can and will happen again. We just have to make sure we have our own house in order.

Even the bottom of our division could turn over. Wake appears to be a surprise team. If they keep it up, Dave Clawson will be up for openings. When he leaves, Wake can go back to being Wake.

Always a buyer's market
Just because BC hasn't hired a great coach in a while doesn't mean that we are not constantly one great hire away. All schools are. These jobs are few and the candidate pool is many. Even with all our challenges, there will be dozens of guys wanting their shot or a second chance at BC. Think of how many coaches who have spurned our interest who would die for the job now (Al Golden?). Dan Henning, Tom O'Brien, Jeff Jagodzinski, Frank Spaziani and Steve Addazio have all taken BC to bowl games. None of those guys are Hall of Fame coaches. There are plenty of college coaches with healthy egos and strong work ethics who will think "if those guys could do it, so can I."

I don't want a change now, because I don't trust BC's current process for finding a new coach, but I don't think we will be a permanent bottom dweller in College Football. No program should be. A head coach just needs to find each program's inherent advantages and build on them.

Finding the right coach is hard. Look how long Michigan struggled until landing Harbaugh. Or Alabama until Saban. Look at Nebraska's slow slide from dominance since Osborne retired.

BC can and will be great again. Probably not under Addazio, but the coaching carousel serves as a great reminder that we will be making changes sooner rather than later.

36 comments:

Bravesbill said...

Atl, while things at Louisville did go downhill under Kragthorpe, Charlie Strong brought Louisville back to national relevance, albeit in vastly weaker conferences (and arguably did a better job than Petrino has in his second stint so far).

ryan morgan said...

If Notre Dame fires Brian Kelly BC should hire him.

BC can have big seasons when it gets an NFL quality QB behind a good line and throws the ball around. Not likely otherwise (and defense has been generally good for a long time).

Kelly is a feast or famine type coach it seems but that is OK at BC where we should play for intermittent big years.

Kelly is kind of an asshole but he would be a good fit for BC.

Georgia Eagle said...

All the big powers make Changes when their programs flounder. BC keeps happily humming along, oblivious to the need for a major shake -up. " Ever to be mediocre."

JBQ said...

The bum has to go. Let's see how they do against Buffalo which is not completely lifeless. Clemson will overwhelm them. @ryan morgan: BC doesn't need hand me downs. I thought about Kelly to be sure. What BC needs to do is replace BB with TC on an interim basis and let him evaluate and then make changes. It might even make sense to bring on Tommy C in January. The Cougher is loyal to BC even to the point of refusing to leave when offered an opportunity after the 1992 ND debacle. Because he stayed and took BC out of a sinking ship and back up the mountain, he should be rewarded for his loyalty and given the chance to "make BC great again".

mod34b said...

let's think about getting rid of Daz first.

ESPN has a feature that tells you the computer's prediction of the odds of winning and losing future games. For the remaining ACC games, BC is only predicted to beat Syracuse 62/38 chance of win/loss. I think 62% is too high. Syracuse can move the ball. At best BC is 50/50

As for the rest of the games, BC is a big underdog, even against Wake and NCSU

Clemson 92% chance of loss
NcSU - 80% chance of loss
L'ville 95% chance of loss
FSu - 97% chance of loss
Wake = 71% chance of loss

Even UConn is only a 68 percent chance of win.

Based on this BC is about a 50/50 chance of going 1-7 in ACC or 0-8. either way, no bowl.

I can't really root for 0-8, but I can root for Daz being gone.

Good points on FSU, Lville, Clemson losing coaches and making bad replacement picks.

Let's hope Daz gets a chance to do some golfing with Les soon.

Napolean Bonaparte said...

Saying BC will be great again is meaningless (putting aside the appropriateness of the word "again") without substantive signs from our administration that they intend to work tirelessly and invest as necessary to get us there before our final years in assisted living (or wandering the countryside after being shoved out of the car stripped of identification). Two things have to happen before any coaching change at BC. A committee on athletic oversight has to be formed by the BOT to oversee the BCAD, and that committee has to replace Bates with a solid AD having a track record of success and good hires. The new AD gets to pick his coaches after consultation with the committee.

AlbanyEagle said...

Why on earth would we want Brian Kelly at BC? If he can't win with the talent that annually falls into his lap in South Bend there's no way he's winning at BC.

EL MIZ said...

Albany - i think Kelly would prefer the BC out of conference schedule cupcakes to the murderer's row ND goes up against every year. i don't see BC playing at Texas to open the season any time soon. and the media glare/scrutiny at BC is about 1/10000th of what it is at ND.

also, according to figures that either JBQ or Ned in Savin Hill routinely post, Addazio gets paid far more than Kelly.

Lenny Sienko said...

Perhaps one of the openings will be DAZ's new "dream job"? We can only hope; but I think DAZ has nowhere else to go at this point.

Georgia Eagle said...

I wouldn't recommend Daz for hc of Smuckatelli Community College.




Georgia Eagle said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
CT said...

Daz gets $2.5m. Kelly half that. ND screwed with the Weis contract. Hard to believe BC outspends ND in this area.

I want to see how competitive we are against the three teams clearly on another level before...

Knucklehead said...

Sorry ATL,
Alabama, Louisville, Nebraska and my LSU homies at their very worst ever ever have never been as bad as BC is right now.

The program is an absolute fucking disaster in every way shape and form. There are literally 10-12 players on that team worth an ACC level scholarship(the first/second string d-line, Milano, Jeff Smith as a receiver and Myles Willis-not kidding).

Brian Kelley won the shit out of everywhere he was prior to ND(all BC level programs then and now - Central Michigan/Cincinnatti) with drop back QB's, Oline and above average D. He would be GREAT for Boston College.

The problem is that the problem with Notre Dame is not Brian Kelly it is the ND defense. ND scored 35 points on Duke and gave up 40? Notre Dame has a fixable issue, their Defense. Kelly is not going to leave or be asked to leave ND in the next 2 years especially with the change in DC. However, that time frame makes him a perfect fit for BC in two years when Dazzler gets bounced.

We need Dazzler to lose to UCONN, Wake AND Syracuse. If he does that and continue to a total fish with the media he will be bounced. Something tells me we beat UCONN though.

Knucklehead said...

. . . and Strachan.

Georgia Eagle said...

Knucklehead, BC fans won't tolerate two more years of the Dazaster

JBQ said...

Did you see the run up to the Monday Night Football game? Matty and Drew Brees orchestrated a meeting at the center of the field by both teams. The entire squads formed a circle and held hands for a moment of reflection. Both squads decided to support the National Anthem. That is what BC is all about.

Georgia Eagle said...

JBQ, our focus tonight should be on the debates, not football. The football audience for this game are the same morons that never vote.

ryan morgan said...

Kelly went to a NC game at ND -- I went to the game. that's not nothing even though they got smoked.

If Coughlin will come back for two years great (I'm not sure he would).

I'm not zeroed in on Kelly -- just a random comment. I think his style would play well at BC and loading up for big years behind NFL quality Jr/Sr QBs (while keeping a 7 win floor) is a decent strategy at BC. That's just my .02

The best play is to get the next big thing as a young coach (like we did with Coughlin the first time). That's the best way, but Bates can't do it. You might think he can, but he can't.

JERZeagle said...

With respect to Kelly, the ND offense is always a pleasure to watch. Its fun. They move the ball. Play aggressive.

mod34b said...

chip kelly, brian kelly, les miles, tom caughlin, al golden, john harbaugh, brady hoke, etc...

to BC? what are people smoking?

Think MAC, AAC, FCS etc. Think in early 40s... not late 50s... We need the next Justin Fuente.

But that means we need a real Athletic advisory board with knowledge and connections and a really good AD who can really evaluate coaching talent.

I like Tim Pernetti as a possibility. He did well at Rutgers.... a tough place to manage.

Georgia Eagle said...

Rutgers, Temple, Vanderbilt, Rice, Indiana, perdue, BC, anyone seeing a pattern here?

bceagle93 said...

TC for AD & HC in 2017.

BCAlum2000 said...

Brian Kelly is not going to be fired by ND this year. He would need to finish with a losing season this year AND next year. That said, BC should have hired him instead of Spaz when we had the chance. We blew, like we seem to always do with coaching hires now. If he comes free and BC has an opening, snatch him in a heartbeat. He is a local guy and had unbelievable success everywhere, including ND (people need to stop thinking ND is the same team from the 80's and prior - look at how all their other post Holtz coaches have done).

Hire Tom Coughlin NOW to be the interim (or shoot even permanent if he wants it) AD. If he wants to insert himself as coach (Barry Alvarez style), God bless.

Never going to happen, but I would LOVE to see Les Miles here. The guy is half insane, but is entertaining as hell. I think he is actually better suited for our style of football versus the SEC ... big strong OL, strong-armed QB, power running, defense.

Georgia Eagle said...

I have my doubts with Kelly
Several disciplinary issues under his tenure. And how can he NOT produce a consistent top 20 team with the 3&4 star recruits ND lands?

BCAlum2000 said...

Ask Charlie Weiss ...

In all seriousness, a lot of those recruits came because of Kelly. While ND will always attract some top kids, they had a dip in recruiting for some time.

I still think his track-record is top-notch AND he is a local Irish Catholic boy. He is the perfect match and wanted the job badly as I recall both when he was at Central Michigan and then again when he was at Cinci ... instead we hired Jags and then Spaz.

blist said...

I think kelly could do well here. The environment at ND always makes those kids soft no matter who the coach is -- everyone tells them how great they are and they believe it.

knucklehead said...

Tom coughing is the head coach of the Philadelphia eagles right?

Let's get real.

Kelly would take bc if he got canned from Nd. Just so he could beat their asses. He is a sick little shit. Perfect for Boston college.

Hoke sucks. No coordinator background. Think jags there.

BC is a tougher job now than ever. 20-30 years ago a military style coach could work with the right players. However, 18 year olss now don't really respond to being screamed at and made to run miles\miles if they fuck up. The there are not enough kids who react well to that. That type is ONLY one that has been successful at BC.

knucklehead said...

Just checked TC is not coaching. Thought I heard him connected to Philadelphia.

knucklehead said...

Still you bitches need to get real.

Is Vince Dooley available?

mod34b said...

Kelly makes $4,500,000 per year and just got an extension through 2020

stop with the Kelly nonsense -- although he is #8 on the hotseat. our man Daz is #2 -- HOT SEAT LIST

Guido said...

It is not important to get a guy with prior coaching experience with NAME RECOGNITION. You want a guy who can coach. And when the time comes (if it ever does)just think outside the box and not be narrow minded. There are programs like North Dakota State that keep on winning. Can anyone on this board name the last two coaches at this school ?? Of course not. I am sure also that Brad Bates does not know their names either. And for the next AD - I recommend contacting Steve DeOssie - a very bright and articulate guy who I feel would BE OUTSTANDING and then he can get his degree at night (Love it). I am not kidding about this suggestion. He would bring some life to the moribund athletic programs now in place. He would also not be shy about questioning the need to field so many teams in different sports like tennis , swimming ,track etc. How many fans will flock to the "Heights" to see Buffalo play the "Eagles"??? That will be an interesting stat. Nuff said !!!!

BCAlum2000 said...

Tom Coughlin is the coach of the Philadelphia Eagles? Thats news to me ... and everyone else for that matter ...

As for getting real, you do know Tom Coughlin coached at BC previously, right? That his daughters went to BC, right? That his son-in-law is Chris Snee, a former BC OL, right? That he still has many connections to the school, right?

Knucklehead said...

Mea culpa. Do you know what that means?

Did you read all the comments?

Do you have his social security number? I heard his blood type is O negative.

Are you "The Schwab?" You sure as shit stumped me with all the fucking questions.

BCAlum2000 said...

Based on your posts, a toddler could stump you

Knucklehead said...

Second mistake in 6 years here(caught it myself). Think the other one was when I said Brian May was a 6th year player.

Yeah a toddler. Not one of yours though.

MattBC03 said...

Steve Addazio is a gypsy