What other ACC schools might make basketball changes this year?

This is the third part of a series to look at the future of BC Basketball.

Timing is probably the most under appreciated aspect of making a coaching change. There are years when everyone fires their coach and only a few A listers flip, leaving the bridesmaids to go to their C - List. Other times no one fires their coach leaving the few schools that do selecting a better coach than they ever could have expected. It doesn't seem like a bunch of top basketball jobs will open this offseason. But closer to home the ACC could see some change. And if schools make a change, how will that affect BC's potential search?

Miami -- Jim Larranaga era of Miami basketball has been one of their better stretches. He has one conference title and four NCAA Tournament appearances. However, he's about to turn 70, the 'Canes are having a rough season and Miami is tied to the most recent NCAA pay for play scandal. I could see Larranage stepping down this year. If Miami does make a change, I could see them looking at the same type of candidates BC would approach. They have some of the same issue (budget, fan support). The unknown in their change is if looming NCAA problems scares coaching candidates away.

Clemson -- Can you believe Brad Brownell has been at Clemson nine seasons? I know he has beaten BC plenty of times (including this weekend), but overall this decade of Clemson basketball has been almost as forgettable as BC's -- two NCAA appearances and a losing conference record. The success of the Clemson football team makes this job much more enticing than when Brownell took it a decade ago. The school has more money and more name recognition. If Clemson decided to go all out, they could probably land an elite coaching. 

Wake Forest -- Danny Manning has been bad at Wake (yet even he got Wake to the tournament once). He's angered donors, fans, AAU coaches and transfers. Wake would love to fire him. The only thing stopping them is his buyout. But if Wake doesn't end the season strong, I think Wake will make a change. If they make a change, I think they would be looking at some of the same names as BC and Miami. I think their job is a little more desirable than BC or Miami's due to fan support and proximity to the other North Carolina schools. 

Syracuse -- Even before his tragic car accident this weekend, you have to view every Jim Boeheim season as potentially his last. The man is 74 years old. He decided to extend his career to coach his son, but things like the accident might lead him to reevaluate. If he does retire, I just assume Mike Hopkins would take over. In a way that is a loss, since BC could have and probably should have hired Hopkins five years ago. 

How will the Coaching Carousel impact BC?

Three weeks ago I called for Addazio's firing and I thought we were headed for a coaching change. Now Addazio might be the safest coach in the country. Barring another 180, BC is headed for a bowl and the coach is secure in Chestnut Hill for at least another year. But that doesn't mean that all the change in College Football won't impact BC. If as many as six SEC schools make changes, plus a traditional deep-pocketed power like Nebraska makes a move, the dominoes will impact the ACC and potentially even BC.

Will anyone hire Addazio away?
At this point in the rebuilding project and in his career, I don't think Addazio will leave for just any old job. I think it would have to be more money and a greater chance to win. And even as lowly as BC feels sometimes, there aren't that many better options for him. I don't think any of the SEC schools will hire him. His reputation precedes him in the conference and I don't think any fanbase sees him as the guy who is going to unseat Saban. I don't see any West Coast teams coming for him (Addazio at UCLA?). That leaves the Big Ten. Addazio doesn't fit the mold of a Nebraska coach nor does he have any ties to the program. I am sure his agents could sell him to their leadership as a guy who is able to recruit outside the region and as a guy who will run a power football program. I think Nebraska will go for a bigger name or one of their own, however, if they strike out at their top few choices, maybe Addazio comes into the picture. The second elite Big Ten job that might open is Penn State. After this season, James Franklin is going to have his pick of good offers. He could be in the mix at Florida or Tennessee if he wants. If he does leave Penn State, Addazio might make sense for them. But like Nebraska, I think they would shoot for a bigger name first.

What happens to the ACC?
Even though Addazio might not be high on anyone's list, I could see big shakeups in our division. Despite Louisville's problems this year, Petrino is a proven winner with an SEC track record. Wake and NC State are having good seasons at the right time. Both Doeren and Clawson might be Tier 2 guys who end up in a better job because half the schools out there can't bag their dream coach. Even Babers might end up in a better spot. That type of turnover would be great for BC. The Atlantic has been one of the toughest divisions in football. The churning of coaches would mean a few programs take a step back. That would be welcome right as our talent starts to develop.

Recruiting
Addazio is close to finished with this recruiting class, but every coaching change means a chance to pick off someone else's verbal or get a 5th year transfer who doesn't want to hang around for the new guy. This scenario has worked well for BC in the past. This season should be no different.

What the Coaching Carousel means for BC

The College Football Coaching Carousel got off to an early start with a National Championship coach biting the dust just four games into the season. But LSU is just the first domino. USC could make a change. Maybe even Notre Dame. I don't think nor -- at this point -- want a change at BC, but what happens elsewhere will impact our team. It will also serve as a reminder of how precious these jobs are and how fluid power is within the ACC.


Coaching Changes among our opponents
Right now it feels like the best BC can finish in its own division is 4th place. FSU, Clemson and Louisville have the talent and coaching that we cannot match. But none of that is permanent. Both Jimbo Fisher and Bobby Petrino are prime targets for LSU. Fisher could also pursue NFL opportunities if he wanted to go to the next level. Two years from now, it is highly unlikely that both will still be coaching in the Atlantic Division. Despite their geographic and institutional advantages, neither program is guaranteed to make a good hire or keep winning at their current pace. (Remember the last time Louisville replaced Petrino?) Dabo Swinney seems well entrenched at Clemson, but don't think that he wouldn't go home to Alabama at his first opportunity. Saban is 64. He's not going to keep this pace forever.

All of that instability is good for BC. Our last great run coincided with a downturn at FSU and an extended mediocre period from Clemson. It can and will happen again. We just have to make sure we have our own house in order.

Even the bottom of our division could turn over. Wake appears to be a surprise team. If they keep it up, Dave Clawson will be up for openings. When he leaves, Wake can go back to being Wake.

Always a buyer's market
Just because BC hasn't hired a great coach in a while doesn't mean that we are not constantly one great hire away. All schools are. These jobs are few and the candidate pool is many. Even with all our challenges, there will be dozens of guys wanting their shot or a second chance at BC. Think of how many coaches who have spurned our interest who would die for the job now (Al Golden?). Dan Henning, Tom O'Brien, Jeff Jagodzinski, Frank Spaziani and Steve Addazio have all taken BC to bowl games. None of those guys are Hall of Fame coaches. There are plenty of college coaches with healthy egos and strong work ethics who will think "if those guys could do it, so can I."

I don't want a change now, because I don't trust BC's current process for finding a new coach, but I don't think we will be a permanent bottom dweller in College Football. No program should be. A head coach just needs to find each program's inherent advantages and build on them.

Finding the right coach is hard. Look how long Michigan struggled until landing Harbaugh. Or Alabama until Saban. Look at Nebraska's slow slide from dominance since Osborne retired.

BC can and will be great again. Probably not under Addazio, but the coaching carousel serves as a great reminder that we will be making changes sooner rather than later.

All coaches should rent

A few days ago I was exchanging emails with a long-time and frustrated BC fan. I had to remind the fan that all of this is fluid. Every once in a while a school locks onto a Beamer type, but very few coaches end up being lifers. Just look at the ACC landscape. 

Clemson -- Dabo Swinney, 8th season

Duke -- David Cutcliffe, 8th season

Georgia Tech -- Paul Johnson, 8th season

Florida State -- Jimbo Fisher, 6th season

Virginia -- Mike London, 6th season

North Carolina -- Larry Fedora, 4th season

NC State -- Dave Doeren, 3rd season

Boston College -- Steve Addazio, 3rd season

Louisville -- Bobby Petrino, 2nd season

Wake Forest -- Dave Clawson, 2nd season

Pitt -- Pat Narduzzi, 1st season

Miami  -- will hire a new coach

Virginia Tech  -- will hire a new coach

Syracuse  -- will hire a new coach

Assuming Virginia fires Mike London soon, Addazio will have been around longer than half the coaches in the conference. And that is after just three years. Of the coaches with more seniority, who has the potential for real staying power? Maybe Swinney. Johnson is rubbing a lot of Georgia Tech fans the wrong way. Age and health will catch up with Cutcliffe. Fisher flirts with enough SEC and NFL jobs to know that he's looking beyond Tallahassee. Fedora could also be in the mix for the LSU job.

If you lost faith in Addazio this year, take the long term view. He will either bounce back next year, or he is probably not long for BC. And even if his ceiling is low, he's not going to be here in much beyond five or six years anyway. That's just the nature of the sport. 

How will this year's Coaching Carousel impact BC?

Addazio is perfectly safe. Even if the team craters this year, he's earned enough goodwill from his first two years to survive a terrible season. Other coaches won't be as lucky. Many will be fired. And if things go well for BC this year, some program might come for Addazio. But Addazio has just of enough of a history outside of BC that not just any program would hire him. He's not getting an SEC job. He's probably not drawing interest from the Pac 12. So it would come down to these spots that might be open:

Indiana -- The good news and bad news is that Addazio already coached there. They are familiar with him and might want him. The flipside is he knows how hard it is to win there. They also have Big Ten TV money. Ultimately I don't see him leaving for Bloomington, but he might leverage interest for a raise.

Virginia -- We've lost coaches to ACC programs before, but how did that work out for NC State? Virginia might be a better gig on paper (more local talent, potentially more local support), but I don't know if they would make a run at Addazio. 

Illinois -- This is a better job than Indiana, but it still has limited upside. The division is winnable but you still have to face Michigan and Ohio State to win the Championship. Of the positions likely to open, this one seems the most plausible.

Ultimately I don't think Addazio wants to leave for just any old job. I think it would take a lot of money and an opportunity to win. Those above don't seem like sure bets, but there are always a few twists in the process. But having a desirable coach is a nice problem to have. We can only hope that Addazio wins so much each year that he is always mentioned for new openings. 

Athlon's ACC experts don't think much of the BC job

It is that time of year. The preview magazines hit the shelves and post all sorts of lists. Athlon asked a panel of ACC experts to rank the conference coaching jobs based on potential and difficulty of the job. BC came in 12th out of 14. Although this list don't mean much (is Addazio going to quit tomorrow because we are not higher up?), I still take issue a bit with the ranking.

Is it easier to win at some schools than others? Absolutely. However, when ranking jobs, fit is too often overlooked. Take TOB as an example. He left BC for NC State (ranked 8th). Is NC State a better job? Maybe on paper. Maybe the budgets are a little higher and the admissions a little more friendly. But TOB could never make it work there. He wasn't the right fit. BC in general has done a good job finding guys who can work within our culture and thrive within our region. We will never be Florida State, so it doesn't make sense to try to be Florida State. If the experts slight the job at BC or view it as too difficult, does it really matter? There will always be coaches who can win at BC. We just need to find them.

ACC Hotseats

In his latest Mailbag, Stewart Mandel listed the college football coaches most likely to get fired. Former BC staffer and current Virginia Head Coach is No. 2 on the list.  London's ties to BC are deep (TOB is his OC and Spaz's son is walking on this fall). He was also a candidate for the BC job after Gene fired Jags. I preferred him to Spaz at the time, but it looks like he would have struggled at BC too. But London's situation is a reminder that more coaching changes are coming to the conference. They always do. And if we are holding steady with Addazio, coaching changes can be good things for BC.

Fired coaches usually mean a few things. The first is a bad season. Bad seasons from other ACC teams are good things for BC. It opens up bowl slots and can lead to easy wins. A fired coach can also mean a rebuild. Rebuild often lead to more bad seasons. Of course there is always the chance of a quick turnaround, but I expect Wake to struggle this year and it looks like NC State will still be rebuilding under their second year coach.

The majority of ACC coaches are safe. Fisher can do whatever he wants at FSU. Swinney still has good will from his most recent run (but he's got to start beating South Carolina). Duke and Pitt might have ceilings with their current coaches, but their respective consistency makes them safe. Syracuse, Louisville, Wake and UNC have enough invested in their current coaches, that changes are unlikely this season. I think Golden is safe but he's always a candidate for another job. Beamer is safe too, but his transition to retirement is looming.

The only other ACC Coach to truly join London on the Hotseat is Paul Johnson. I like Johnson and think Tech should hang on to him, but he's rubbed enough people the wrong way over the years that his goodwill might run out. There is also the perception among a group of their fans that his offense will never lead to a National Championship.

Virginia and Georgia Tech are not in division, so a shakeup at either place doesn't benefit BC directly. However, we recruit similar types of players and have moved recruiting deeper into both states under Addazio. If either coach gets fired, BC should be able to poach a reluctant recruit or two.

I am glad BC is out of the Hotseat circle for at least another year. Who knows? Maybe Addazio will be a winner and a lifer. For now, I just hope he takes advantage of the chaos at other programs.

Why BC is a better job than most think

During the coaching change last fall, I discussed the various positions with some friends who were plugged into the coaching community. The general consensus was that BC was not as good a job as some of the others available at the time. One job that was supposedly better was NC State. That had me scratching my head. Tom O'Brien had just proven that it was easier to succeed at BC than in Raleigh. But the argument for NC State was the same thing you always hear: better facilities, easier recruiting, and great fans. Yet all that great potential hasn't led to much success. In fact, NC State is where coaching careers go to die.

Long-time ACC writer Caulton Tudor noticed that most ACC jobs lead to firings. But I think it is a bit different at BC. We may have fired four of our last six coaches, however, an argument could be made that two of the fired (Bicknell and Jags) could have used BC as a stepping stone had they had better foresight or timing. Bicknell missed his window and passed on bigger jobs. Jags tried to jump too early and saw it all blow up in his face.

The two that got fired without any prospects were Spaz and Henning. They share some of the same characteristics including that they never should have been hired in the first place and both were a little old for the job. Age is a factor in all of this. If you are young and hungry and ready to prove yourself, BC can be a great place. Expectations -- even among bloggers -- are relatively low. The Boston media is passive, as is the fanbase. Those might keep some from wanting the job, but that low pressure environment should be enticing to someone who wants to build a career.

Addazio is positioning himself as a lifer at BC. Odds say that won't end well. However, if history holds, he will have other opportunities in four of five seasons. I am not worried about him taking a new job either. There will be a smart opportunistic coach ready to fill his shoes at BC.

Six things to remember during the coaching search

Hundreds of names have been posted regarding the coaching search. At least half are utter nonsense. I've already written about some of the names and will profile more this week. In the mean time as we prepare for the search, let's keep these six things in mind:

1. The conference shakeup won't impact things all that much. As a member of the ACC, BC is still part of the "Big Five" and still has access to the playoff. There are a lot of things that still have to unfold and none of it will be decided in the next three weeks. The "A" list might hesitate, but that is because guys like Golden and Mullen already have access to the BCS. If they are going to make a move it will be about improving their chances to win national championships. It won't be about going to a program that is outside of the "Big Four" in three or four seasons.

2. There won't be many real candidates also in the mix at other jobs. The openings at Cal, Colorado, NC State, and Purdue won't greatly impact BC. Dave Doeren might get interest from some of those schools. Mike MacIntyre will have interest from the West Coast schools, but overall we are going to have a much more deliberate plan and won't just chase a "hot" name for a this job.
3. New names will arise. Ball State Pete Lembo is earning attention and will be part of the initial list. Other names will also pop up as agents, friends of BC and Bates begin exploring back channels. I know someone like Lembo doesn't inspire many people but for a B List choice, he is very strong.
4. The new coach will be young. Every school tends to hire the opposite of their last coach. BC is no exception. We are not going to hire someone over 60 or even nearing 60. That means Mike Sherman is not happening.

5. There will be plenty of courtesy calls and interviews. Bates is not a bridge burner like Gene was. If legitimate guys call, they will get a call back. If former BC players call, Bates will speak with them. This doesn't mean that a guy like Jim Turner is a real candidate, but it might lead to him getting a courtesy interview. Those sorts of calls will appease the football alumni and help Bates rebuild the spirit around the football program.
6. NFL guys are the great unknown. Bates knows the MAC and that is probably where our new coach is from, but he respects the NFL aspect of BC. Because of his son and just the way he dealt with things, Gene knew many NFL people. Bates has spent all of his career in college sports. He will talk to NFL guys like Tim Sullivan and Pete Carmichael, but I don't know how they will fare. 

Lessons from the NC State search

I could rehash all of my criticisms of Gene Defilippo without much prompting, but honestly he handles himself much better than many of his peers. Take NC State's Debbie Yow for instance. Monday -- after getting publicly snubbed by Shaka Smart -- she sent out a letter to NC State fans explaining the Wolfpack's troubles in finding a coach. After lowering expectations with the letter, she left ACC followers scratching their heads by hiring Mark Gottfried on Tuesday. Just when you think she couldn't handle this even worse, Yow used Gottfried's press conference to attack Gary Williams!

Let's recap where she went wrong and how it compares to Gene.

1. Firing a coach without a solid list of replacements. NC State wanted an A-list coach. That is their prerogative. But if you are following that path you need to make sure your A listers will take the job if offered. Nothing looks worse than getting ignored by other coaches. Contrasts that with Gene. In his two football searches and one basketball search he always interviewed some candidates that would take the job. When you are snubbed by a candidate it hurts recruiting and usually ends with the school overpaying for a candidate they don't want.

2. Admitting the struggle to fans. Many ADs lower expectations but doing it in your own email looks bad. She devalued her own program and made the open position less desirable. Gene is king of sending messages, but he is pretty careful about what he says as on the record.

3. Airing grudges publicly. Yow's spat with Williams makes her look petty and it also ruined Gottfried's introduction to the Wolfpack fans. Gene certainly can get in pissing matches. But he is smart enough to limit what he says on record. One less headache and one more chance to improve productivity.

Coaching carousel's impact on BC

The coaching carousel keeps turning. We are not involved this season, but there is still impact on our program. As I said at the Fanhouse, it seems like Arkansas went after every coach in the ACC. Here are my thoughts on how the ACC changes will impact BC.

Bowden staying at Clemson. Good news for the most part. Bowden staying means that Clemson will continue to be a tough game for BC. But I also believe he has a ceiling and will not dominate the division or the conference. I do believe that Clemson is a sleeping giant. If they had hired the right coach, the Tigers could have locked up the Atlantic Division for a decade. Instead, we get more Tommy. We still have a chance.

Florida State announced a succession plan. Good news for BC. This keeps the conferences biggest program in limbo for another season or two. Is Bobby calling the shots? Is Jimbo? If Florida State struggles does Fisher still take over? I know the goal was stability. I think the Seminoles will find this creates more confusion.

Jim Grobe is staying at Wake Forest. Bad, bad news for BC. As long as Grobe is at Wake they will remain a tough game for BC. I had hoped he would move on and the Deacons would sink to Duke like levels in football.

Georgia Tech still looking. Doesn't really affect BC. I think Georgia Tech will be a solid program with the right hire. However, since they are in the other division, we don't have to deal with them too often.

Duke still looking. Bad news for BC. I want them to hire someone quickly and I want Gene to give Logan a nice raise.