Sunday, November 05, 2017

NC State opens as favorite in BC game

If you believe in momentum, you would think that BC would be a home favorite against an NC State team coming off of two losses. That is not what the bookmakers or betting public think. Mot of the major sports books now have NC State as a 3-point favorite.

I don't care about BC being a home underdog. I track spreads as a gauge into what the experts think. There is clearly more respect for BC than there was a month ago. But it is clear NC State's recent losses are not derailing the perception of their season. It will be interesting to see if this spread fluctuates like the Florida State game or if NC State -3 remains.

13 comments:

Knucklehead said...

Major fluctuations the last three games. Line here is tight enough that it isn't going to move much in terms of actual points(%).

Did the NC State running back that got hurt against ND play this week? I watched both games intermittently but his name didn't resonate with me.

STL_eagle said...

The injured NC State running back was Nyheim Hines. He was back for the Clemson game but was more limited than prior games, perhaps because they were trailing and needed to go to the air more or Clemson just did a good job retaining him.

The fact that the spread is down to 3 is a good sign versus where it would have been a month ago. NC State has got to be disappointed coming off two losses so will be interesting to see if they are fired up or deflated. Regardless BC should be motivated by recent performance and at this point have little to lose and more to gain by playing aggressive.

I like BC in a close game 31 to 27. Go Eagles!

mod34b said...

a little math.. a point spread is not a prediction of game outcomes. It is a number the bookies pick to attempt to get 50% of betters to bet on each side of the bet, and the spread usually undervalues the favorites chances.

i don't have a good vibe about the game...


NEDofSavinHill said...

Can anyone believe the hype around Ohio State? The public has been told all year how great they are. ESPN and Herbstreit were promoting them for the playoffs and their mediocre QB for the Heisman just a week ago. Their incompetent DC Schiano ( SHAZ) proclaimed that his D-line was the best he ever coached, college or pro. OSU has played three ranked teams this year and that stellar D has given up 31, 38 and 55 points or 41 per game. When you add in the final contest last year with Clemson ( 31-0) they are 1-3 vs ranked teams allowing 39 a game. If SHAZ had stated that this was the worst line he ever coached it would be closer to accurate. So much for the media spin. 2. When NC ST. beat FSU and Louisville everyone was impressed. Losses to ND and Clemson took off some of the luster. BC has a comparable record 2-2 vs those four programs. The teams seem to be evenly matched. A victory on Saturday opens up many options and assures a bowl appearance.

Knucklehead said...

All that means is what everyone already knows. Changes in the line show where bettors think the game is going to end up. Especially in games like BC vs xyz schools where there are not as many bettors massive changes in the line are even more indicative of how people think the game is going to go. Alot of people bet BC the last three weeks against the original line then it shifted closer to the original line later in the week. The same trend the last three weeks. Most dramatic line swings I have seen in 5 years of following college football lines. It is the Ohio State effect.

Georgia Eagle said...

Outside of Georgia and Alabama, everyone seems beatable this year.

mod34b said...

Knucklehead. I do not care what you say.

Georgia Eagle said...

Here we go.

Big Jack Krack said...

I think that we can have a good vibe about this game if we adopt the right attitude.

Why not us? - type of thinking. We have defeated them before when they were favored!

Since 2005
Boston College leads series, 8-4-0 (Not counting the loss in 1937)
Longest winning streak by Boston College: 3 games
Longest winning streak by North Carolina State: 1 game
Most points scored by Boston College: 52 (Oct 17, 2009)
Most points scored by North Carolina State: 44 (Oct 9, 2010)
Largest margin of victory by Boston College: +32 (Oct 17, 2009)
Largest margin of victory by North Carolina State: +27 (Oct 9, 2010)

BC has defeated NC State 8 times; 5 wins in Boston; 3 wins in Raleigh
NC State has defeated BC 4 times; 3 wins in Raleigh; 1 win in Boston
BC
2016 at Raleigh 21 to 14
2014 at Raleigh 30 to 14
2013 at Boston 38 to 21
2011 at Boston 14 to 10
2009 at Boston 52 to 20
2008 at Raleigh 38 to 31
2007 at Boston 37 to 17
2005 at Boston 30 to 10

NC State
2015 at Boston 24 to 8
2012 at Raleigh 27 to 10
2010 at Raleigh 44 to 17
2006 at Raleigh 17 to 15 (WTF Game) Spaziani's defense gave up a last second Hail Mary type pass from the 3rd string QB. I was at that game and I didn't appreciate that - or TOB's approach to score just enough to win and then shut them down.

Go BC - beat NC State.


knucklehead said...

Here is a math lesson for you. From AFLAC - qwak qwak.

Who has the most stupid comments on a message board between the time they started commenting and today? Mod34B. The squid who put a stupid thing next to his name so that everyone can know who he is. After running away like a bitch.

Ding ding ding gutter tell them what they've won.

Mod go back to your hovel with Section D, TGS and CT. The Mount Rushmore of douche.

CT said...

Ha. That’s Bezos rich. You’re boring.

Tell us more obvious betting info.

Next thing you know, you’re going to be visiting the athletic offices waiting to talk to the AD but getting Jill instead.

Knucklehead said...

Your boy. Bezos.

John said...

Massey College Football Composite Rankings had BC at 31 last week and NC State at 24.

I haven't checked Sagarin (as it was unavailable on my phone) but we should be doing better there as well.

We we're so sick of being ranked around 100.

Go BC - beat NC State.