Friday, June 29, 2018

A new look at over and under achieving coaches

When I wasn't tweeting out banal political tweets the other day, I retweeted this article from Football Study Hall on over and underachieving college football coaches. You can read the full article, but the gist is that over a period of time, some coaches continue to outperform the stats related to winning and losing. From Bill Connelly:
You can potentially distill coaching into two things: building a team that produces great stats and figuring out how to maneuver in tight games when neither team has a statistical advantage. The former matters above all (Nick Saban and Steve Kragthorpe, after all, are nearly even on this list ... and on no other list in existence), but if nothing else, this list might help us to understand which teams/coaches are good or bad at the latter.


I am interpreting Connelly's maneuvering quote as "game management." His list goes starts at 2005 and captures coaches with four or more years as a head coach. Of note:

-- TOB: Diff/Wins per year = 0.66; Percentile among coaches = 93.8%
-- Spaz: Diff/Wins per year = -0.01; Percentile among coaches = 52.8%
-- Addazio: Diff/Wins per year = -0.41; Percentile among coaches = 20.6%

A few notes of clarification. Since they started tracking in 2005, most of TOB's data is from NC State. (I can't speak to how he managed games there.) It also includes Addazio's time at Temple. It also doesn't factor in the huge issue of talent and recruiting. By this simple measurement Spaz is a better coach than Addazio, however, Spaz's mismanagement of multiple aspects of the program left him winning fewer games each year. I also don't think TOB is some sort of Bill Walsh genius who was never appreciated. I think he was ultra conservative and rarely beat himself, but also never took risks when he had to (at least at BC).

Does this mean Addazio can't improve or can't win big? No. Talent overwhelms at a certain point (see Nick Saban). But I do think it validates us when we are scratching our heads at some of Addazio's decisions. I also worry about Addazio's sounding boards in-game. Who will replace Pasqualoni as the voice in his ear about adjustments and decisions? (It should be noted that Pasqualoni's numbers are close to Addazio's.) I just hope the coach is doing something to adapt, so this factor starts breaking BC's way.

6 comments:

Edward Griffith said...

TOB DID WIN HIS BATTLES IN THE HOLY WAR. GLORY TO HIM !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

mod34b said...

Daz is just a windbag.

He talks up recruiting, but his record for team recruiting is the worst in the AC

He talks up how the players just luv the game, but sucks at in game coaching

Daz sucks. People want to believe in Daz (Like a Santa) and want BC to be seen as patient and decent by “giving Daz a chance”

But we all know BC would be better served with a better coach. Change can be s good thing.

Georgia Eagle said...

This year, eight wins is the bar. If dazoshit doesn't win that minimum, even his apologists will demand his removal.

M said...

Your final comment nailed it Bill. We hope Daz knows he needs to adapt. Coach running his very predictable Woody Hayes 1979 playbook will cost us games & wear out AJ. If Daz can't bear to call a pass before 3rd down, I hope he lets Loff run the O.

JBQ said...

The prediction is 5.5 wins. I agree that anything below eight is the end. The Pasqualoni loss could be immeasurable. He brought a bit of sanity to the Daz.

Edward Griffith said...

Less than 8 who are the people who should replace DAZZLE-NoT ???

WHO WILL MAKE THE ECHOES RING AGAIN ? FOR BOSTON !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!