Monday, October 15, 2018

Let's check in on what the computers think

With  BC stopping the bleeding and upsets occuring throughout college football, it is time to look at BC's ESPN FPI. As you probably remember, ESPN's systems loved BC after the fast start. At one point we were a favorite in all remaining games aside from Clemson.

With the win over Louisville, BC is 42 in ESPN's system (right behind a resurgent Purdue). As for upcoming games, BC is only considered a favorite in the last two. Miami has a slight edge, VT's larger and Clemson looks to remain a heavy favorite.

Of course none of this really matters. The rankings don't play the games, the players do. And a healthy Dillon would mean BC can win any game left on the schedule.

15 comments:

Edward Griffith said...

HOW IS IT POSSIBLE TO JUSTIFY extending CHRISTIAN even for a day.
IF Leahy cared about athletics he would have stopped bonehead moves by Bates with
Dazzoshit and now Jarmond with Christian .
Long past the LOSING TIMES BEING INFLICTED on BC !!!!!!

BCEagles2014 said...

It is still disappointing BC came out so flat against Purdue, and quickly losing its top 25 ranking after a nearly 10 year wait. But you could also argue that Purdue was unusually snakebitten to start the season and were due for a win. Purdue’s resurgence adds some credence to this and makes our loss to them sting a little bit less as they continue their winning streak.

I do not excuse Addazio at all and still believe NC State was more than winnable if we had better playcalling in the first half. But so far, our only 2 losses are to a top 20 team and to a Purdue team that was a mere 8 combined points away from having an undefeated season thus far. Perhaps I’m being too optimistic, but this may change our view on how the season plays out. Maybe BC isn’t as bad as we’ve thought they were and we just lost to 2 very good teams. Next week against Miami will be very telling about the true potential of this team.

Geezer eagle said...

Eagle2014, you make some valid points. Still, the presence of Dazoshit is the difference between a 8-9 win season and the 6-7 BC most likely will finish with. Worse, Jarmond won't make a move at the end of the season. This is so damn frustrating.

NEDofSavinHill said...

The D was outstanding Saturday. They only allowed 217 yards of offense. Louisville amassed 500 yards against GT. 400 yards against FSU and 270 against Bama. Only Virginia at 210 yards bested BC. Both lines played very well. The Miami game is pivotal. A win could lead to an outstanding season.

Knucklehead said...

So ESPN has them going to a bowl, the Sun Bowl, that the folks here think is a good bowl that requires 8 wins. However, their fucking computers say we are going to win 1-2 more games.

Knucklehead said...

From what I have seen BC can win any game with a healthy Dillon. He is not close to his best with this injury. A high ankle sprain, he might be 90% for Miami. Like I said two months ago and even more appropriate with the specifics of his injury publicly known Miami and the rest of the schmbag programs on our schedule will make sure he doesn't get through the rest of the season 90%.

Knucklehead said...

Baily and Glines can get it done. Glines needs to stay focused at all times he is on the field so he does not commit turnovers.

JBQ said...

There are a lot of unknowns. The victory total could go a number of ways. I don't see them beating Syracuse who had Clemson on the ropes. If AB could run, they could win all five. They will see nine man fronts. White appears to be their only viable receiver although Lewis is getting some good looks. AB is inconsistent on his throws and it probably has a lot to do with the "Dizzy Dean syndrome". He is favoring his injured leg and changes how he throws.

BCEagles2014 said...

GE, I totally agree about Daz. His comments in the latest press conference about not using Bailey in the NC State game are completely baffling and indicative of how bad of a coach he really is. Saban rolled out his true freshman QB in the freaking national championship when his veteran wasn't getting it done. Dabo Swinney moved on from another proven vet to go with his higher upside true freshman QB. Daz plays scared to lose, not to win which will always limit this team's true potential.

downtown_resident said...

His decision to leave Bailey sitting on the bench-- especially when the offense did absolutely nothing for two-thirds of the game-- is preposterous and his explanation that he didn't want to play him because of the "flow" of the game makes no sense at all.

He then compared it to his sparing use of Dillon early last season, claiming that he didn't want either guy to be overwhelmed by college football. Got it. So suddenly midway through the year last year Dillon overnight went from possibly being overwhelmed to capable of 272 yards (and 39 carries!) in a single game. I guess that is possible, but I'd say it's far more likely that in the first half of last season Daz simply played an inferior back (Hilliman) way too much while he left a much, much better running back in Dillon on the bench.

BCEagles2014 said...

Spot on downtown resident! As I said before, Daz plays scared to lose. Every decision he makes is with the mindset to limit the potential for disaster. His hope is that BC can remain within striking distance until the very end and hope for our opponents to make a costly turnover and for us to capitalize on it and win in the final seconds.

This is not a winning strategy. You can't win playing scared all the time. Be aggressive and take some chances. Sure you'll get burned from time to time, but you gotta give the kids a chance to make something happen.

Big Jack Krack said...

Completely agree that the game plan has to be balanced with flexibility built in. And play the best players - the ones who give you the best chance to win. Maybe they don't have to start, but work them in, for crying out loud.

Loyalty and favoritism can only go so far, Coach.

The 7 possessions in the first half at NC State were disgraceful, given our experience and talent. I blame Addazio 100% - but Loeffler has to step up and demand some say in the matter.

And if he had complete control in Raleigh, it was a disgraceful performance on his part.

I hope that we can see a good blend of plays in our last 5 games.

It has been stated by others, and I agree that our Offensive Line would be better with Petrula at Center. I understand that Baker is a great guy, but does he give us the best chance to win? He gets absolutely pushed back into his own QB on passing plays. Not always, but plenty of times.

That's not a personal attack as much as an observation. He's 290 coming off a bad knee injury and rehab. It's an example of Addazio's loyalty and favoritism, just like Hilliman over Dillon last year.

Go BC - let's rest up and get ready to paste Miami.

Big Jack Krack said...

We should be in the Top 30 with a chance to move (back) up - except for our playcalling.

Knucklehead said...

He didn't use Bailey because he wanted to redshirt him. Glines has fumble trouble and Levy is a receiver and also hurt. Not sure what you are talking about.

downtown_resident said...

If he sat him because he wanted to preserve his redshirt, why not just say that? Not to mention that Bailey can play in up to four games without losing his redshirt, so if that was the intention why not play him in the NC State and Louisville games and hope for AJ's return a month later at Miami?