Monday, September 30, 2019

ESPN's FPI thinks we won't win again

Most people felt that BC's schedule was backloaded with tough games. Yet there was some optimism -- especially after the VT win -- that BC could start 5-0. We didn't. And now things might not get better. Look at ESPN's FPI for our remaining schedule:

Louisville -- 22.4%
NC State -- 49.4%
Clemson -- 1.7%
Syracuse -- 30.9%
Florida State -- 30.1%
Notre Dame -- 3.6%
Pittsburgh -- 26.6%

We are not favored in any of the remaining games and given the slimmest of chance to upset Clemson and Notre Dame. According to the models, our last best chance to win is against NC State. If Addazio finishes 3-9, he is done at BC.

I am on record as wanting a new coach, but I actually think the formulas are off. Is BC bad? Yes. But is the rest of the ACC that much better? No. I still think Louisville, NC State, Cuse, Florida State and Pitt are winnable. I also think Addazio will grind his way to six regular season wins. That might still be too little, too late, but I do think that is what will happen.

No comments: