Friday, October 04, 2019

BC-Louisville preview

BC's last trip to Louisville was a turning point. Addazio's job and BC's season seemed on the line and the team responded in a shocking shootout from a previously stagnant offense. Now Addazio takes a team to Kentucky needing another jump start. Could this be the right opponent at the right time again?

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
The Chris Ash firing sparked a new round of media speculation on who is next and Addazio was often listed in the mix. I am on record saying it is time for change, but I have no idea if change will happen. I still think six regular season wins is happening. Would that be enough to save him? I hope not, but after seeing Christian survive, I have no idea.

Three Simple Keys
1. Third down defense. This has been embarrassingly bad. If BC just stops two or more drives a bit earlier against Wake, they win. Louisville should not be as efficient. BC needs sound tackling and pressure on the QB.
2. No false starts and formation penalties. Is it too much to ask? This has been very sloppy this year. Our line should dominate this weekend. Don't let Louisville off the hook with stupid mistakes.
3. No Special Teams mistakes. Aside from the kicking issues, there was a bad punt last week and some sloppy returns. Clean that up.

Gambling Notes
-- Addazio has won the last two vs Louisville
-- Satterfield is 27-6 when coaching at home
-- Addazio is 16-15 on the road as BC's coach
The current line is BC+5.5

BC's first trip to Louisville was in 1986.

Scoreboard Watching

This is a pretty slow weekend for ACC Matchups. The one most relevant to us is Pitt-Duke. Is Pitt legit? If they look bad, it will make me feel a little better about our matchup with them at Thanksgiving.

I hope to see...

The Oline dominate. Lost among the false starts and hit or miss passing game is that our Oline has been pretty good. The other team is selling out to stop the run, yet we are still controlling the line of scrimmage. Keep that up and BC will be ok.

BC is in trouble if...
We can't get sacks. Like Kansas and Rutgers, Louisville heads into our game with QB uncertainty. This should lead to us wrecking things, not giving them confidence.

Bottom Line
I've been throwing the game in the "toss up" group and actually think we pull it off. Louisville is even less prepared than Wake for our run game. I think we grind away with Dillon and Bailey and the D does just enough to win.
Final Score: BC 24, Louisville, 17

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