Thursday, October 17, 2019

BC-NC State preview

The timing of the bye week was fairly fortunate for Addazio. It gave him time to prep his new QB and hopefully find a solution to his abysmal defense. It also lines up well with down year NC State team coming to BC. BC remains a home underdog, but as he prepares for the second half of the season, this is not a bad way to start.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
We all want a breakthrough from seven wins, but getting one or two more Ws still doesn't guarantee a memorable or notable season. Look at NC State under Doeren. He has an eight-win season and two nine-win seasons, yet has what to show for it? Their fans are still a bit bored and jaded. There is no national attention. They are not regularly ranked nor going to premiere bowl games. I guess we want more than just winning football. I think it is also about those seasons where it feels like anything can happen and you get excited about being a BC fan again.

Three Simple Keys
1. Lots of play action passes. This was never AB's strong suit, but it seems like Grosel can get off the quick hitters to Tight Ends and whoever else. I imagine NC State is going to sell out to stop the run and dare Grosel to beat them.
2. Remain aggressive and high scoring. State's D is not great either. With Grosel in, BC can't decide to slow it down and play ball control. If BC wins, it will be in a high possession shootout. A slow game just puts more pressure on the BC D.
3. Turnovers. I've given up on BC getting QB pressure. So now it is on the D to get turnovers.

Gambling Notes
-- Addazio and Doeren are 3-3 in this series
-- Addazio is 3-9 coming off a bye at BC
-- BC leads the all time series 9-7
The current line is BC+3

Doeren has now passed TOB in wins at NC State. Addazio still trails TOB in wins at BC by 34.

Scoreboard watching
Pitt plays Syracuse this weekend. Do you feel like you have a good handle on either team? Does Addazio? Both represent potential wins. It will be interesting to see how they handle each other.

I hope to see...
Grosel play a great game. I know the backup QB is everyone's favorite player. I also know that Brown played hard for BC, but he was also frustrating to watch. Maybe we will luck into something this week. As I have said over and over, with this scheme, these running backs and this OLine, BC doesn't need a game changer at QB. A game manager will do just fine.

BC is in trouble if...
If we still see busted coverages in the first half. Athleticism can't change in a bye week, but players understanding where to be can. If guys are still roaming free in our coverages, then you know the season is done.

Bottom Line
I am still somewhat optimistic about the remaining schedule. That doesn't mean I think much of BC or Addazio, but I also don't think much of this year's NC State. I think this is a close, high scoring game and a few breaks go BC's way.
Final Score: BC 38, NC State, 30

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