Thursday, September 23, 2021

BC-Mizzou preview

College Gameday will probably only mention this game in passing, but don't be mistaken. It is huge. Or at least huge for BC (and BC fans). Winning this game will lead to BC being ranked going into Clemson. It will mean a 4-0 non-conference record, which will likely lead to a strong final record. But a win would also mean that given time, Hafley can prep for a big non-conference game and win with his back-up QB and as a home underdog. Good teams and great coaches win games like this.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
There is always a bit of disconnect between the moods and perceptions of the casual BC fan, the casual college sports fan and the diehard BC football fan. (If you are reading this, you probably are closer to the diehard category.) To those who don't follow closely, the good start and the Grosel story are fun and nice to sees. To the more engaged fan, we are all waiting for the other shoe to drop. Is Hafley for real? Is Grosel going to be good or revert back to his previous form? So you come to a game like this weekend and the casual fan is sort of paying attention while the diehard is putting a lot more weight into the outcome. This happens with many BC events and sports. I don't know how you bridge the divide or if you should. Do the casual fans need to "get in" if you will? Do the diehards need to chill out? I don't know. Whether it is BC sports or even BC issues in general, the only real change comes is when there is consensus and everyone feels the same. 

Three Simple Keys
1. Don't force things downfield. I know that going conservative takes away some of our best weapons, but I don't trust us to force it with Grosel. His passes should be timing, shorter and often off of play action.
2. Control the line of scrimmage on Offense.  The Oline has been a bit inconsistent so far this season. One drive they look great and the next play things are a mess. To win this weekend, they need to play to their reputation and ability and control early.
3. Avoid costly penalties. BC ultimately held Temple in check but that doesn't mean there weren't plenty of stupid penalties. Many of them were drive extenders. That can't happen this week.

Gambling Notes
-- Drinkwitz is 2-1 in non-conference games
-- Mizzou is 5-4 vs the ACC
-- BC is 14-20-1 vs the SEC 
The current line is BC+1.5

As you will probably hear once or twice this weekend, this is the first meeting of the two schools. With this game, BC will have played 11 of the current 14 members of the SEC.

Scoreboard Watching
The ACC is off to a horrible start so it makes sense that it happens when Wake is trending up! The Deacons play UVA this weekend. Like our game against Missouri, this will be a test if Wake is for real.

I hope to see...
A big crowd at kickoff. With the vaccine screening, BC knows there will be long lines and has sent out a message to get your bracelet early and get to your seats on time. I hope the fans follow the recommendations.

BC is in trouble if...
We don't make the Tigers pay for stacking the box. I have a feeling this will look like an Addazio game. The key for BC will be play action passing into a crowded box. Guys should be open.

Bottom Line
I don't have a great feeling going into this game. I will still pick BC to win, but think it will be very close. I think a defensive or special teams TD will be the difference.
Final Score: BC 24, Mizzou 17

No comments: