Thursday, October 21, 2021

BC-Louisville preview

We are a year and a half in on Jeff Hafley and it has been overwhelmingly positive. Last week you saw that the honeymoon was over for some of our fans. I am still a big believer and trust his long term plan. What will be interesting is how he handles the remainder of this season. In my opinion the difference between the very good coaches and the all-timers are how they salvage a game or season or program when things are not going their way or they don't have all their weapons. This is where we have to give Hafley time and see what and how he does it. He's never been a Head Coach before. He's also not as experienced on the offensive side of the ball, so he's never been knee deep in a QB controversy/issue. But hopefully he knows enough and is on the same page with his offensive staff so they can smoke and mirror us the rest of the way.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
Perception -- unfortunately -- is still important in college football. In a usual year, the ACC being a mess would be a big issue. The media would be hammering the conference and us. But all of college football is struggling. It is a missed opportunity for the ACC not to fill that void, but at least the conference is being ignored during a messy chaotic season.

Three Simple Keys
1.  Protect Grosel. Louisville will bring pressure. Grosel needs good protection and needs simple reads.
2. Generate turnovers. If we are going to win, we need to be opportunistic and maybe even get some points off of turnover.
3. Don't allow Cunningham to beat them with his legs. We were bad against mobile QBs last year. If we want to win this week, we need a good plan to contain Cunningham.

Gambling Notes
-- BC is 4-2 against the spread in their last six games
-- Louisville leads the series 7-6
-- Louisville is 4-1 in their last five home games
The current line is BC+6.5

The home team has won the last three games in this series.

Scoreboard Watching
As deflating as the last two weeks have been, it could be worse. Just look at Syracuse and Virginia Tech. Both are having frustrating seasons and play each other this weekend. It is relevant for us because we will face both. How they do against each other is important. The winner might have new life, while the loser might fire their coach.

I hope to see...
Carlson bounce back. A lot went wrong last week, but Carlson's muffed punt proved to be a huge momentum swing. Let's hope he puts that behind him and is ready to get back to placing the ball well.

BC is in trouble if...
Grosel is in the pocket too much. I know they have tried and are trying everything, but in my opinion nearly any play when he is in the pocket is wasted. He doesn't make good decisions. If we are going to win, we need to keep it simple.

Bottom Line
I am extremely frustrated with how Grosel has played and Hafley's decision not to throw someone else back there. They obviously believe Grosel is the best and only true option. I hope they are right. I think we keep it simple, the D gets opportunistic and BC holds on.
Final Score: BC 24, Louisville 21

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