Season Prediction Part III: what will happen

Last year BC overachieved. Some of that was luck, but a lot of it was coaching. I felt Addazio played to his strengths while still instilling his values and philosophies. While putting that sort of imprint on a team doesn't guarantee permanent success, I do think it will serve BC well as he navigates through his second season. We are also experienced in a few places that can mask a lot of issues (QB and OLine). Yet I am still a realist. I don't think we will win the ACC, but I do think we go bowling again. It won't be easy, but my gut tells me it will still be fun.

Here are my official predictions for the season.

What Will Happen

at UMass. Win. We pound them and I also think Don Brown will know just what to do against his old buddy Whipple.

Pitt. Win. I think this will be one of the toughest games of our peer programs. But I think we can steal a win at home against a solid Pitt team.

USC. Loss. USC doesn't smother the offense again, but we still cannot overcome their talent advantages.

Maine. Win. Maine might be a decent FCS team, but we are not going to lose this game.

Colorado State. Win. I don't like the matchup against CSU. I still think we win, but it won't be pretty.

at NC State. Loss. NC State should be much better this season. I also think the first road game of the season will be a challenge.

Clemson. Loss. I fear that some of the games we kept close last year won't be close this season. 

at Wake Forest. Win. Wake will have trouble stopping our rushing attack and BC nears bowl eligibility. 

at Virginia Tech. Loss. I don't think Virginia Tech is all that good, but I do think road wins will be tough to come by this year.

Louisville. Loss. This is the toughest part of the season. The defense struggles and the rest of the schedule looks daunting. 

at Florida State. Loss. This is ugly. All of us are wondering if Addazio can rally the guys in the final week.

Syracuse. Win. Another tough, close game. BC pulls it out to get to six wins and become bowl eligible.

6-6 (4-4) leaves BC eligible for bowls but totally unwanted. ESPN and the ACC force us on the Bitcoin Bowl in Tampa. To offset the lack of BC tickets, the bowl selects USF as our opponent. It becomes a virtual road game but that doesn't bother our hardened team. We win a close game and finish 7-6. It is not a historic BC season but it sets the right tone for recruiting and Addazio's future. 

2014 Preview Questions: Will this be like Addazio's second year at Temple?

Last season was great. Even after losing much of last year's team there is plenty of optimism about Year 2 of Addazio. Temple fans know that optimism. They shared it when Addazio led them back to the Big East in his second year. Yet things did not go well. Temple slid back to their all too familiar losing ways and the coach bailed when BC came calling. I don't expect this season to be easy but I also don't expect a repeat of Addazio's second year in Philly. Fortunately there are enough differences between the two situations for BC fans to feel hope.

The conference transition. Switching conferences can be tough. It is even tougher when there is a big jump in talent. As strong as the program was, Temple still probably wasn't ready to move from the MAC. Addazio recruited well, but much of that talent was young in 2012.

New Offensive Coordinator. Want to add a degree of difficulty to a conference move? How about changing OCs! I like Ryan Day and Addazio is a former OC, so all his Coordinators are influenced by him, but things were bumpy in Year 2. Some of it was due to injuries and depth. Eventually they started clicking once they started using creative run schemes (sound familiar?) but it was too late to save the season record.

Frontloaded schedule. After taking on Villanova, Addazio took on Maryland and Penn State out of conference. BC's out of conference schedule is not as challenging and we get to start our season at home or in Gillette.

The other change is that Addazio is two year wiser. He's now been through a Year 2. Ideally he's learned and can avoid the same mistakes that hurt Temple in 2012.

The realities of the new season

BC began practice Monday. I am excited and it seems like the players and coaches are. I am also optimistic, however, that optimism is tempered by BC's key issues: depth and experience. The biggest news related to depth is the departure of James Walsh. He was hardly the linchpin of the season, but his transfer means BC enters the season with just three scholarship QBs in Murphy, Wade and Flutie. Walsh never showed that he could lead a ACC winning team, but I hoped that he would stick around and alleviate the need for Wade to play this year. Now any chance of Wade redshirting is gone. Flutie also had the chance to contribute as a WR. Now he probably needs to focused solely on QB. The team will live or die with Murphy, so pray that he stays healthy.

BC's own twitter recap captured how many new faces are around. Like Addazio, I am not worried about the new faces. While not experienced overall, we do have plenty of experience on the Offensive Line. Those guys can cover a lot of mistakes and issues and get BC through our rough games. The area where lack of depth and experience is most glaring is WR. But once again, Addazio feels good about those guys. They might not be fast or proven, but at least they will be big.

The Coach admitted that you can't learn much from this sort of opener. It is all about gradual improvement. BC will hold some scrimmages in the coming weeks as they prepare for UMass.

The reality for all of us is that we don't know what to expect. For so long we were a predictable program. Now we're not and considering it is only the first day of Year 2, I don't think that is a problem.

2014 Preview Questions: Is Steven Daniels the best player on Defense?

With all the "Dude" talk and Heisman hype, no one really mentioned that Steven Daniels had a great season. He was active. He was versatile and he was our best tackler. When Daniels got near someone he brought them down. When watching the games back, rarely did he miss a tackler and no one shook him off. He finished the year with 88 tackles (3rd best on the team). This season -- with so few impact players returning on defense -- might be Daniels' time to shine. He will either get swallowed up by the void left in the linebacking corp or take over and dominate.

Daniels' road to the Heights was lined with a few pot holes. He was supposed to be the next great St. X recruit. However, he spent a year Worcester shoring up his academics. Meanwhile the greatest St. X-BC player in school history, Luke Kuechly, was rewriting the record book at Daniels' position of Linebacker. Could anyone fill Kuechly's shoes? Daniels first season was okay but didn't project for his explosion as a sophomore. Last year he finally showed glimpses that he could live up to the St. X legacy.

I don't know how Brown will use Daniels this year. Daniels has enough speed to be used more often in blitz packages. But he can also be used to cover the space left open by other guys rushing. Either way I think he's going to be a difference maker.

2014 Preview Questions: How difficult is the schedule?

One of the less mentioned aspects to last season's bounce back year was our manageable schedule. Three very winnable games in Army, New Mexico State and Villanova, gave Addazio a good base for bowl eligibility. This year the schedule is not as friendly. But how difficult is it?

The experts think BC's got a challenging slate. Phil Steele ranks our Schedule Difficulty at 28 (second most difficult in our division behind Syracuse). As Steele points out, the NCAA's metric considers BC's schedule the 15th most difficult. Most of the computer models also factor in replacing Maryland with Louisville, a road MAC game and playing USC again. On paper it seems like this will be tough. However, when you break things down, I don't know if it is that much worse than last year.

The UMass game in place of New Mexico State is huge boost. NM State was a terrible team, but we traveled to them and their staff had a familiarity with our personnel. UMass is a road game where we don't have to travel and where half the crowd will be BC fans. Colorado State is respectable but we will be favored. USC at home is tough, but they will be breaking in a new staff and travelling a long way early in the season.

As for the ACC schedule...things seem manageable too.  We have winnable road games at NC State and Wake. Toss up games like Pitt and Syracuse are at home. Winning games under any circumstances is tough, but I think we could be favored in at least six of our games. For a young team with a new QB, that doesn't seem too daunting.

If you break it down into parts, the schedule looks fine. Go 3-0 in the "cupcakes," split with the ACC peer programs like Wake, Cuse, Pitt and NC State, and then steal one from the big boys of Clemson, VT, Louisville, and Florida State. That is a respectable six wins, especially in a transition year for a young team. 

Gut reaction to 2014 Schedule

We've known who BC was going to play for some time. But today BC and the ACC released the official schedule with dates. Here are my initial reactions:

• The schedule is much more balanced than last year. There is no killer stretch. If you had to pick the toughest area it would probably be three road games in four weeks with Clemson in the middle.
• Having an off week before Florida State is nice.  The defending champs are going to be really good next year too. We will be underdogs, but at least we have a week off to prepare.
• Another Friday game to open the home slate. I know I like Friday games more than actual ticket holders, but Pitt on a Friday after playing in Gillette is not bad. 
• We can go bowling with this schedule. Because of all the departures, expectations will be low. But seeing the schedule on paper and how it plays out, this team can get to six wins. UMass and Maine are near automatics. We will probably be favored against Colorado State. I don't expect to beat FSU. If we can split with Wake, Pitt, Syracuse and NC State and steal one from the VT, Clemson Louisville, USC group, we can be in the post season again.