NC State loss didn't seem to impact BC's desirability to bowls

If BC had pulled off the win against NC State and run the table, we might have elevated into a higher level bowl. Now it seems like we are back where we started in the lowest rung of ACC games. Most experts see BC still going to the Pinstripe Bowl (here and here). Detroit is still in the mix. El Paso could happen. I think most BC fans would prefer the Pinstripe. The location -- while cold -- is accessible to a good portion of our fans. Most seemed to enjoy our last game there. Plus it would likely be against a Big Ten team so there is a chance to get a respectable win. But this is not settled. There are a few variables that will impact the ACC bowl pool. Here are some of the unknown issues.

1. Will BC win a sixth game? Without that, we stay home.
2.  Will Syracuse win a sixth game? To do so would involve beating BC. If they beat us Thanksgiving weekend, they will probably take the Pinstripe slot.
3. Will Florida State win a sixth game? They also have to run their table. On name alone, they would probably pass BC in bowl selections?
4. Will Pitt or Duke become bowl eligible? I don't think either would take a Pinstripe slot over BC, but they would become interchangeable on the other ACC games.

I don't think all the ACC teams still alive will make bowls. If they do, then suddenly BC is looking at even lower rung bowls. But now all we can do is take care of our business Saturday. Win that game and BC is going somewhere.

Only one thing matters about the Bowl

BC won't officially know what bowl they'll be in until next Sunday. It could anywhere from El Paso to Detroit. Speculation on opponents has varied from traditional Power 5 teams to hot mid-majors. But really the who and the where of bowl season doesn't matter. BC's not going to an top tier bowl and very few BC fans are going to travel to whichever bowl picks BC. All that matters about this bowl is winning the game. That is why I am more concerned about the matchup, not the destination.

As silly as it seems, the difference between 7-6 and 6-7 is huge. BC needs that extra win to move this frustrating season into a winning season. That winning, however hollow, changes the perception of the season and perception still matters in college football. At 7-6, Addazio can spin 2015 as the bottoming out and sell this year at the first step in BC's ascension. If we lose the bowl game and finish 6-7, he can (and still probably will) spin the season as the first on the road back. But the message becomes less believable if BC has a losing record and loses in a bowl game.

To get that win, BC is probably best matched against a run-first, low scoring team. A team sort of like BC. Even our best wins -- Wake and NC State -- were not high scoring. I don't want BC in a shoot out.

I don't know where the players want to go, but I would like to see BC end up in Detroit. We have plenty of Midwest players who would love for their friends and relatives to come. Plus we still recruit Michigan and Ohio. Playing in a bowl nearby can help keep us top of mind for those players and their coaches.

So whenever BC plays, don't view it as a made up bowl. View it as a must win.

Looks like a five win BC team could go bowling

This has been percolating for a while, but as pundits began updating their bowl projections, many added BC this week. The NCAA has too many bowls and not enough teams with .500 or better records. That means that teams with just five wins can be invited to a postseason game. Those invites are determined by APR. Since BC's APR remains strong, our Eagles will be one of the first five win teams invited. (That might be the first time APR has ever done anything for BC.)

BC can simplify things by just winning the Wake game. That sixth win would guarantee a bowl game. It would also stop some of the media snickering.

Going to a bowl with a losing record seems like a hollow accomplishment, but there are some residual benefits. There is the extra practices, the last trip for the seniors and the chance to end the season on a positive note.

I don't like how expansive bowl season has become, but BC would be stupid to turn down an extra game. And as much as I mock these weird bowls, I will certainly watch.

BC and the other schools still waiting for their moment on the big stage

New Year's Day was different this year. The games had more meaning because of the new Playoff. One thing that wasn't different: no BC. As great as the Pinstripe Bowl experience was, BC still wasn't in a major bowl. And BC hasn't played in a true major bowl since the Cotton in 1985. As much as we want to blame it on travel reputation and fanbase size, there have been automatic qualifying opportunities for more than 20 years. First the Bowl Coalition, followed by the Bowl Alliance, then the BCS and now the Playoff. As a member of the Big East and the ACC, BC had access to all of these games. We just never played our way into any of them. We know the near misses: losing to WVU in '93, losing to Syracuse in '04 and dropping back-to-back ACC Championship Games. At this point it is almost bad luck. Other Power 5 teams have made it on fewer close calls.

Although only one year old, the Power 5 conferences of the Playoffs have put the majority of their teams into major bowls. Take a look at the teams that have yet to play in Playoffs and their forebears:

ACC Have Nots
Boston College
Duke
North Carolina
NC State

Virginia

Big Ten Have Nots
Indiana
Minnesota

Big XII Have Nots
Iowa State
Texas Tech

Pac 12 Have Nots
Cal

SEC Have Nots
Kentucky
Missouri
South Carolina
Vanderbilt

(Now I am only using bowl history and qualification based on the bowl's status at that time. Take Duke and the Peach Bowl as an example. The Blue Devils played in the Peach Bowl last year. It was a good bowl, but not defined as a Playoff/Major bowl at the time. This year, the elevated Peach Bowl is one of the official New Year's Six. So although Duke has played in a Peach Bowl recently, they have yet to earn or get selected into the Playoff/BCS/Bowl Alliance/Bowl Coalition games.)

Of course the ACC would have the most teams that have not played in a major bowl. Despite that fact, I don't worry that we are locked into some top heavy conference that will never enable a major bowl. As Georgia Tech showed this year, there will be many times when the ACC runner up also makes a major bowl (as long as the winner gets into the Playoff). As daunting as Florida State, Clemson and Louisville may seem right now, it only takes one down cycle for things to change.

The variety and number of schools that have made major bowls should be encouraging to BC fans. It shows that things can change quickly and every school will get its shot. I'm impatient for our shot, but believe it will be here soon. And hopefully by that time there are eight teams in the playoffs...because then we have a chance to win the whole thing.

The Pinstripe Bowl has already made BC a winner

We all want BC to beat Penn State, but the Pinstripe Bowl is already a huge positive for BC. By selling out our full ticket allotment and the game selling out quickly BC can finally start to change our travel reputation. Technically BC sold our ticket allotment for the 2007 Champs Bowl, but I know for that game we gave some tickets away to local charities and Catholic churches. There was no need to give tickets away this time around. In fact, BC had to use a priority system on tickets for the first time in a bowl game.

I assume most of the success is due to location. We are playing relatively close to campus and in the middle of a huge alumni population. However, future bowl organizers don't need to know that. We can spin the demand for this game in multiple ways: "BC will sell out a bowl game when we face a team from a major conference", or "We will sell out our tickets when we travel to a desirable destination" or "Addazio has changed the culture of BC Football." All of that is completely subjective, but it makes sense to a bowl organizer. 

The Pinstripe is truly excited to have us. They were one of the first bowls to sell out this year. Even before we take the field, we have done enough that they will select us in the future. But this is about more than the Pinstripe. We need to turn this success into future bowl opportunities. 

Ranking BC's bowl appearances

BC fans love to complain about our bowl games. But our history with bowls isn't all bad. Prior to the bowl explosion in the past 15 years, BC played in a few interesting matchups and in some historically significant games. If you really look at things, there are three distinct BC bowl eras. The first was our success in the 1940s, then the Flutie Years and then the bowl expansion time that coincided with the start of Coughlin's tenure. For the purpose of this ranking, I mixed them all. Here is my list. Feel free to add your thoughts in the comments.

1. 1985 Cotton Bowl -- This remains the real peak of BC Football. It was the the capstone of the Flutie era Eagles. We played and won a traditional New Year's Day Bowl.

2. 1941 Sugar Bowl -- Although no one other than BC recognizes it as such, this was our lone National Championship. We beat Tennessee in SEC country on a New Year's Day Bowl. If the Cotton was the peak of Flutie, this was the peak of Frank Leahy.

3. 1943 Orange Bowl -- We lost to Alabama but this game was still a big deal. Leahy was long gone to South Bend, but we still had a good team and the Orange Bowl was arguably the second biggest bowl behind the Rose.

4. 1940 Cotton Bowl -- BC's first bowl. We lost to Clemson, but it was an important lead up to the next season.

5. 1982 Tangerine Bowl -- This was BC's first bowl game since the '43 Orange Bowl. The Flutie hype was in full swing and we were fun to watch with our wide open offense and scrappy little QB. 

6. 1993 Hall of Fame Bowl -- Who knew this would be BC's last major bowl? (The Hall of Fame is now called the Outback Bowl.) We lost to Tennessee, but that didn't dull the excitement of the Coughlin era.

7. 2007 Champs Sports Bowl -- This remains the peak of GDF "bowl streak" years. We played in Orlando against a real team in Michigan State and picked up our 11th win. It felt like a real bowl. However, it wasn't New Year's Day game and after losing the ACC Championship, it was all a bit of a letdown.

8. 1994 Aloha Bowl -- The Aloha Bowl used to be a big game. It was usually the first bowl game and one of the few sporting events on Christmas Day. It was also a great defensive performance from one BC's best defenses.

9. 1986 Hall of Fame Bowl -- The Hall of Fame Bowl (currently called the Outback) wasn't a major bowl yet in 1986. It was played before Christmas. This season was a bounce back from 1985 and supposed to prove life after Flutie. Instead it was Bick's last bowl. 

10. 1983 Liberty Bowl -- The Liberty Bowl has never been considered a major bowl, but it has been around a long time. We lost to Notre Dame. Despite the Irish connection it was the least important Bowl of the Flutie years.

11. 1994 Carquest Bowl -- This was our last New Year's Day bowl. The bowl started with a big push when it was the Blockbuster Bowl, but by the time we played, it lost Blockbuster, lost network TV coverage and took on an also ran status. It was also a huge letdown when the team nearly played their way into the Sugar Bowl.

12. 2001 Music City Bowl -- This was TOB's first win over a ranked team. It was also BC's chance to prove ourselves against a traditional SEC power. He would have better teams and more accomplished teams, but this was probably TOB's best bowl win.

13. 2005 MPC Computers Bowl -- If Music City was TOB's best bowl win, then this game was the best microcosm of his tenure. We were shipped off to Boise based on travel reputation and not record. We took a huge lead and looked great for a half only to nearly blow it in the second half. The fans, media and bowl organizers disrespected us. We won, yet the media and Boise State ignored the loss on a technicality (we were the "home" team) so they could keep their Cinderella narrative going.
14. 2000 Aloha Bowl -- It had only been a few years, but the Aloha Bowl was starting to lose its stature. BC barely got into a bowl and at the time received criticism for even being in a bowl. "How can a 6-5 team play in a bowl game!?" Little did fans know this was just the start. BC played well and beat a decent Arizona State team.
15. 1999 Insight.com Bowl -- We got trounced in this game, but it remains important because it was TOB's first winning season and his first bowl game. He also changed his bowl preparation so that BC wouldn't be embarrassed like this again, which led to eight straight bowl wins.
16. 2004 Continental Tire Bowl -- While the current Belk Bowl has earned a niche as a solid mid-level bowl, it was still a bit of a joke when we played in it. However, we had the ACC play hardball on our behalf to avoid going to an even bigger joke elsewhere. This had a letdown feel after blowing our chance to win the Big East. But we won and some kid named Ryan finished the game after Paul Peterson broke his leg.
17. 2006 Meineke Car Care Bowl -- Same bowl in Charlotte, just a different name. The reason I put this here is because we pulled out a miracle (Dunbar forced a fumble, Ryan led a drive, Sid kicked the game winnner) when the game was basically lost. Spaz was interim while we waited for Jags. He kept things together well enough. It would turn out to be his only bowl win.
18. 2002 Motor City Bowl -- This is where I think the casual BC fan started to question the legitimacy of our bowls. We were playing in Detroit, the day after Christmas against Toledo. It didn't feel like a bowl. We were also coming off a disappointing season where we underachieved. Yet the team played really well. It was easily Brian St. Pierre's best game and probably the best BC has ever played in a bowl game.
19. 2003 San Francisco Bowl -- This was a quirky bowl and a quirky season. No one was thinking bowl in October when the season looked lost, but TOB made Peterson the starter and things took off. The novelty of playing in a baseball park in front of our California fans hadn't worn off yet. We beat Colorado State and everyone thought the experience was a good one.
20. 2013 Independence Bowl -- This wasn't a good game and few fans ventured to Shreveport, but it was still important. BC returned to a bowl game under Addazio and played a legitimate team in Arizona. Like the Liberty Bowl, the Independence is not particularly desirable but has a respectable history among second-tier bowls.
21. 2008 Music City Bowl -- If you haven't forgotten this game, you probably wish you could. Like all our bowls after nearly going to a big one (should've been the Orange) this was a letdown. We didn't play all that well and not much went our way (flukey fumbles, etc.) Yet we were still we up late in the fourth only to see some questionable/dumb penalties move Vandy into field goal range. The bowl streak ended and Gene and Jags would blow up their partnership in the days that followed.
22. 2009 Emerald Bowl -- We were playing USC and Pete Carroll but it still didn't feel like a big deal. There was a lot to like about the 2009 season: Herzy's triumph, Kuechly emergence, yet the whole Spaz time felt like sleep walking. No one cared and no one expected us to beat the Trojans. We didn't.
23. 2011 Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl -- San Francisco again. Nevada was respectable but there was no juice for this game. It was played late into bowl season and most casual fans had checked out.

I didn't rank Mirage Bowl in Japan. College Football Databases don't consider it a bowl. I also didn't include this year's Pinstripe. How we play will influence where it finally falls. 

BC headed to Shreveport to face Arizona

Boston College will play Arizona in AdvoCare V100 Bowl in Shreveport, source said
— Brett McMurphy (@McMurphyESPN) December 8, 2013

The Independence Bowl -- currently known as the AdvoCare V100 Bowl -- selected BC for their 2013 edition. We will play Pac 12 at large team Arizona. Despite all my bemoaning of the date and location, this is still a good thing. I will have a lot more on the bowl and Arizona in the coming weeks, but let me share the best aspect of this arrangement: ESPN and Shreveport wanted BC in this game.

For years we've been told how undesirable we are for bowls. How this played out proves otherwise. Even though this is not a major bowl, this is the oldest bowl we've played in since the Cotton. Shreveport has good local support and wants the best possible match-up. It is not just a exhibition by the local CVB to bilk teams into buying tickets and guaranteeing hotel rooms. They wanted BC and they wanted an Andre Williams-Ka'Deem Carey face off. ESPN wanted us in this game too. While Brad Bates and I were loving the idea of BC on New Year's Day, ESPN just looked at it as a wasted opportunity. The Heart of Dallas Bowl gets low, low ratings because of its timeslot and ESPN U. The Independence Bowl kicks off a relatively busy bowl day and the first half of the game will be unopposed. It will get a big rating. We will hear "Williams vs Carey" over and over, especially when ESPN promotes the game during the earlier bowls.

This is good news and should be a good game. Remember if you do go, buy your tickets directly from BC.

Don't get worked up over Bowl projections

There will be a ton of bowl projections this week. Don't read too much into any of them. BC is bowling but won't be going to a BCS game. That is the extent of what we know. Everything else is speculation at this point. Don't worry. Don't feel wronged if BC ends up in a bowl you've never heard of. None of that really matters. What matters is that we get one more game, the Seniors get a bowl trip and Addazio gets a chance to end the season on a winning note. Here is a little more about what we know.

It all depends on the Orange Bowl

The ACC is the Orange Bowl's partner. However, since Florida State seems headed for the Championship Game, the Orange Bowl can take two non-ACC teams. Speculation is mixed on if they will. Clemson's loss hurt, but there aren't that many better two-loss teams that will also travel to Miami. If the Orange Bowl passes on Clemson, that knocks down each ACC team one slot. But the offset of them picking a SEC or Pac 12 team is that it will open up another bowl slot elsewhere. BC is dealing at the lower end of bowl slots anyway, so does it really matter if we have the ninth ACC game or replace the ninth SEC team?

The Championship Games will mix everything up

All the bowl projections assume the favorites win this weekend. Do you ever want to count on that happening? BC is not in that mix, but each game has a ripple effect on us. Like the Orange Bowl scenario, the lower level bowls will backfill based on what happens with their member conferences' champions.

ESPN will take care of BC and the ACC

There is no scenario where BC is left out. ESPN owns and operates seven bowls. As of today three of them will have to replace a team. ESPN will always go with a bigger market team from the ACC over one from a midmajor. It makes sense for them to keep the ACC happy and it makes for better ratings.

Priorities for Bowl selection

BC became bowl eligible over the weekend. That's a nice accomplishment. However, our bowl history and a stacked year in the ACC means despite being eligible, BC may not get one of the ACC's current bowl slots. There are many scenarios in play from how BC finishes, to the "BC rule" that limits who bowls can select over us, to how many ACC teams make BCS games. Even if we are part of the ACC's current bowl group, there is always a bit of marketing and politics that go into the process.

But just because BC is not in the Driver's Seat doesn't mean we cannot work for what we want. If we are willing to compromise on some things, we can be rewarded with other factors. Other ACC teams might not want to play on certain days or travel to certain cities. Brad Bates has yet to show his cards. We don't know what's important to him. What I hope is that he priortizes things this way:

1. Opponent. We could play a bowl game in Alumni and still have trouble selling tickets. At this point a bowl game is not about where the most BC fans will buy tickets. It is about respect and perception. To help validate this season, BC needs to end it with a win over a name opponent. I don't care if we have to play in Shreveport or the moon, Bates should attempt to find us the best opponent. That doesn't mean highest rated either. Fair or not, BC fans and would rather see us play a team from a BCS conference than a ranked team from a mid-major.
2. Location. Location doesn't matter for the fans. But it does matter for the players. This is their reward. I want a bowl trip to be fun and preferable warm for them. Take the Beef 'O' Brady's Bowl as an example. It is played in the Trop against a no-name opponent. It has a terrible corporate name and no history. Yet for the players, it would be reasonably fun. The weather might mean beach or pool time and there is a trip to Busch Gardens. That might not be your idea of fun, but considering the other options for the players, St. Pete is better than Boise.
3. Date. This is the tricky one for schools that have late exam periods. Some programs don't want to hold bowl practices during exams or study periods. I hope this isn't an issue for Bates. We have played on Christmas Day twice. We can work around a December 23 game or one right after Christmas. In fact, I hope he uses our flexibility on the game date to work BC into a more desirable bowl.