BC-Michigan State preview

Bill O'Brien hasn't shared much of his philosophy to managing a schedule or a season. After last week's loss, he clearly said that there are no moral victories at Boston College. Yet, I think most BC fans would view the first part of his season a definite success. Now as we turn to the heart of the season and come home, the real test begins. No one is going to be surprised by BC. No one is going to take BC lightly. The honeymoon isn't over, but the expectations have risen and now we see what we have in our new leadership.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
I've shared this sentiment before, but the Red Bandanna game is another reminder that we should bring back Men's Lacrosse. When I started this blog, bringing back Men's Lacrosse was an online joke because so many passionate fans used to haggle Gene about it. But the success of the Women's program, the continued rising profile of Welles Crowther and the changing landscape with NIL, revenue sharing and Title IX are all reasons to bring it back. BC could form a team, even without a full allotment of scholarships, and compete at the national level. People need to press this with Blake James. The reason for not doing it getting less relevant every year.

Three Simple Keys

1. TC can't force things. Last week's INTs were very familiar. TC is going to take chances. That's part of his appeal. But he needs to be smart about it. We can't give up possessions and often the field position and win games against good teams.

2. Stop the run. Mizzou kept us in that game but not running more. We could barely stop it. We need to win the along the line and get our D off the field.

3. Clean up the Special Teams. The punts have been sloppy and inconsistent. They don't really trust anyone to make a field goal. This will cost us soon against good teams.

Gambling Notes
-- BC leads the series 4-1-1

-- BOB is 3-0 against the spread at BC

-- Michigan State is 1-2 against the spread this year

The current line is BC-6.5

Factoid

Michigan State is one of four current Big Ten teams that BC has a winning record against. 

Scoreboard Watching
Cal-FSU. I know each loss diminishes our win, but the 'Noles trainwreck season is one in which you can't look away or ignore. Plus Cal has been a early season surprise.

BC is in trouble if...we give up on the run too early. I know you have to keep pace and I know you also have to take what they give you, but there is a reason to stick with the run. It helps the D, plays to our strength and pays off in the 4th quarter.

I hope to see...a huge, perfect game from TC. We know what he can do, but he is yet to do it this season. I want to see a mistake free, scoreboard busting highlight reel game in the Red Bandanna uniforms.

Bottom Line

This is a tough matchup. Michigan State will sell out to stop the run. But I think we will do it. The night game and the Red Bandanna energy will help BC pull away in the second half. 

Final Score: BC 28, Michigan State 16

BC agrees to series with Michigan State

It didn't take long for Martin Jarmond to finalize his first football deal. BC and Michigan State announced a two-game series that will take place in 2024 and 2025. These games are possible because of the movement in the Ohio State series earlier this spring. 

The Spartans will come to Chestnut Hill in 2024 and BC will go to East Lansing in 2025.  BC currently leads the series 4-1-1.

I've been critical of Addazio for being too conservative and short-sighted when scheduling Power 5s. We signed deals with a bunch of bottom feeders. MSU is more what our fans have in mind. They've been historically decent and are in the middle of a upswing. No one knows how good they will be in six years, but they probably won't be terrible. It is the kind of scheduling risk BC should take.

While Michigan is not a hot bed of BC recruits or alums, it is still in a region that remains important to the school. We can sell playing Michigan State to Midwest kids. And any alums in the general area can make the day trip.

This is a good first move by Jarmond. There are not a ton of open slots on the schedule now, but hopefully this is how he will go about filling them.

BC to play Michigan State in hoops and other links

Multiple reports out of Michigan, say that BC will play Michigan State in the opener of the Wooden Classic. The Tournament is in Anaheim, so there are plenty of BC fans in the area.

The media picked BC to finish 5th in the Atlantic Division.

Julian Benbow wrote a feature on the two Seniors and how the team is using last season's near misses as motivation.

Hockey snaps losing streak with win over Michigan State

Nothing helps a team's (and its fanbase's) confidence then picking up a big road win. Hockey defeated Michigan State 3-2 Friday. The win was York's 501st at BC. The victory ties him with Snooks Kelley for most at BC. 

BC will look to turn this win into a streak when they take on UMass Friday.

BC-Michigan State preview

Doesn’t it feel like ages since we last played? Prior to some recent bowl games, we were distracted by coaching searches or the joy of just getting in a bowl. Not this season. This game was and is a letdown for a team that flirted with something bigger. Regardless of prestige or lack thereof, BC and Jags need to win this game. It would cap the season on a positive note, get BC to 11 wins and shift the bowl-streak from a TOB accomplishment to a BC accomplishment.

Theme that won’t be discussed on television. In reading about Michigan State the past few weeks, I keep coming across the stat that they lost five games by a combined 28 points. I am sure we’ll hear some variation of it on Friday. I believe the announcers will describe Michigan State as either unlucky or better than their record. I know the ESPN team will not do a deep dive into how this stat can be misleading nor will they compare MSU to other 7-5 teams. As a believer in point differential, the Spartans’ near misses did catch my attention. On the season Michigan State has a point differential of 107, which is high for a 7-5 team. For comparison, these 7-5 teams had the following point differentials, Florida State (12), Georgia Tech (82), Kentucky (83). But all of those teams played a tougher schedule than the Spartans. When you compare Michigan State’s point differential to another 7-5 Big Ten team in Purdue (98), the 107 doesn’t seem as impressive or unlucky. BC’s point differential at 10-3 is only 108. We suffered a -14 setback by playing and losing an extra game. Our numbers were also impacted by the unusual number of INTs returned for TDs. What does it all mean? Nothing for the actual bowl game. As I’ve said in the past, point differential is a good indicator of how lucky or unlucky a team was. Michigan State is probably better than their record but not to the point that they should be favored or that BC should be worried.

Three Simple Keys
1. Stop the run. The D has been making teams one dimensional all season. It is more important against a team like Michigan State, whose gameplan depends on establishing the run.
2. Protect Ryan. Michigan State’s best passrusher is an academic casualty and will not be playing in the bowl. Don’t expect that to change the Spartans’ defense. They will still come after Ryan. I expect looks like Georgia Tech and UMass gave us – blitzs from every position. It will be important for AC to pick up the extra man.
3. TDs instead of FGs. Moving the ball won’t be an issue. However, scoring points might be. The second half of the season saw too many drives stall in the red zone.

Gambling notes
-- BC is 5-2 against the spread during the bowl win streak
-- BC is 3-1-1 against Michigan State
-- BC is 12-6 in bowl games
The current line is BC-4

What would be a pleasant surprise? Cruising to victory. Both teams have played numerous close games. There is no reason to think this game will be different.

What would be a letdown? Losing. I would really like to get to 11 wins.

What would be a shocker? A sound MSU win. Relates back to the pleasant surprise. This team (and group of seniors) have been in every game and fought hard throughout their four years. I would be surprised and disappointed if they don’t show up for their last game.

Bottom Line
I think BC wins this game. Even though this is Jags first as a Head Coach, the people and the players around the program know how to prepare and get mentally ready for a bowl. It also helps that Michigan State will be without some of their best players.
Final Score: BC 35, Michigan State 24