BC-Central Florida preview

Will the entire season swing on this game? It sounds dramatic but it feels that way. If BC cannot get a win here, that means we have to go 6-4 for the remainder of the schedule just to be bowl eligible. We've padded our win totals through the years with out of conference games. Losing this weekend not only would create an uphill climb but I also think it would hurt the team's and fanbase's confidence.

Overlooked storyline for the game: throwing to the tight ends
Coming into the season it seemed that our depth and talent at Tight End would be a perfect fit with Rogers' philosophy. Yet on Saturday the Tight Ends were used for protection and were an after thought in the passing game. Now that UCF has film on us, I would like to see us pass more out of the two-Tight End formations. It would be a nice adjustment from last week.

Three Simple Keys
1. Continue throwing downfield. My fear is that without Momah and given the sacks from last week, BC will revert to more dink and dunking. That would be a mistake. UCF will bring pressure. We will have to take advantage of that go deep.
2. Keep Godfrey in the pocket. This is even more important after last week's lesson. If we don't contain Godfrey we will struggle. If we get him passing 20+ times, we will win.
3. Better tackling in the secondary. There were some coverage issues last week but my bigger concern was the tackling.

Gambling Notes
-- O'Leary is 2-19 against BCS teams while at UCF
-- O'Leary is 25-19 at home while at UCF
-- Spaz is 0-2 in his road openers
The current line is BC+7

Factoid
This is BC's first live football game to be featured on CBS Sports Network.

Scoreboard Watching
NC State vs Wake Forest. Aside from being a matchup of two teams on our schedule, I think it will be important to see if Wake bounces back from the Syracuse loss. They looked decent at times, but gave the game away. If they play well against TOB, then we know we will have a challenge when they come to BC.

I hope to see...
Consistency out of the running game. Having the offensive line move back to their natural positions should help. If we can't be consistent, then it will be up to Rettig again.

BC is in trouble if…
We keep kicking field goals instead of TDs. This will be a low scoring game. If we cannot get to 20 points, I wonder how we will win.

Bottom Line
As I said in prior posts, I don't think we are far off. If the lines play better, we win this game. I think Spaz will have the adjustments made to slow them down and our offense puts up another 300+ yards through the air. We get up early and then both sides bog down a bit. BC wins based on keeping them bottled up in the red zone.
Final Score: BC 24, UCF 16

BC-Syracuse Preview

Think of how much has changed for BC and Syracuse since we last played. New conferences, new coaches and huge peak for BC while Syracuse became the dregs of college football. Now things have leveled off and playing closer to their respective modern histories. This is also the first attempt at turning this game into an end of the season tradition. I don't think it will ever become Michigan-Ohio State, but it would be nice to play a meaningful game on the last week of the season.

Overlooked storyline for the game: This game might not impact our bowl status but it could be the key to getting ranked at the end of the season. Yes, I said ranked. My point is that if we win this game and play in the San Francisco game and win that, the narrative that "BC is a hot team closing strong" will be fresh on voter's minds. I am not putting any money on us being ranked but I could see it happen.

Three Simple Keys
1. Limiting Williams' touches. We've been spoiled by Harris's toughness and consistency. Williams might great one day too, but I think giving him the ball 20+ times might be a mistake. Earlier this season he coughed it up.
2. Force them to put the game on Nassib's shoulders. Nassib is not as good as some of the other QBs we've faced this year. If we shutdown their running game, I don't think Nassib is accurate or patient enough to put up a lot of points on us.
3. Keep stretching the field. One of the things I've liked about Tranq is his willingness to go deep. We should keep that up this week as our bigger receivers have proven effective in those one on one battles downfield.

Gambling Notes
-- BC has won three-straight regular season finales.
-- Syracuse hasn't beaten an ACC in the Carrier Dome since 1994
-- BC is 4-18 all time at Syracuse
The current line is BC+3

Factoid
It has been six seasons since we played Syracuse. But that break isn't the longest in the series. We didn't play the Orange from 1945 until the series resumed in 1958.

Scoreboard Watching
It probably won't make a difference, but pay attention to how the other 6-5 ACC teams do this weekend. Often times bowl positioning is about momentum. If we have some and others are riding losing streaks into the postseason, we might not end up out West.

I hope to see...
Kuechly have a big day. Although I think he is a long shot for some of these national awards, I think a big day this weekend might help his chances. The game is on national TV. We are playing out of conference so there will be some new eyes on Luke. Plus it is a road game with Syracuse official scorer. If he gets another 20 tackles people will notice.

BC is in trouble if...
We can't stop their ground game. I don't need to remind you what happened in 2004.

Bottom Line
We are the underdog and headed to a place where we've only won a few times. Yet I am not worried. I think we are coming into our own and have he type of defense that will frustrate Syracuse. If Williams can be 75% of what Harris usually is, we will cruise to victory.
Final Score: BC 31, Syracuse 17

BC-Weber State preview

I believe this will be a special season for BC football. There are so many people, storylines, and factors converging at once. But if it is to be a season we never forget, you have to start things the right way and that means beating Weber State. The team needs to come out of this weekend unscathed and ready for the next challenge.

Narrative talking point that you’ll tire of by the end of the game.
"Hurricane Earl this...Hurricane Earl that." The storm is now a Category 2 and is on a path to glance by New England late Friday, early Saturday. It won't prevent Weber State from getting to Boston. It won't impact kickoff. It won't impact play on the field. Yet I think the broadcasters will probably talk about it...in part just to fill time. Unfortunately I do think the game will impact attendance. If people are without power or have flooded basements or just don't want to sit on wet bleachers, they will probably just stay home.

Three Simple Keys
1. Score early. I am not going to go as far as Spaz did in his praise for Weber State, but they are legitimate, solid FCS team. The longer they hang around, the more at risk the game becomes. BC needs to put up points early and not look back.
2. Get confidence in the passing game. I've been told the passing game will be conservative as the staff doesn't want to tip their hands before ACC play. I think that is a mistake. They need to challenge the young guys and get everyone comfortable. I would also like to see the backup QBs get some game action.
3. Stay healthy. This is a priority in any game, yet in a FCS game it is that much more important. We need to come out of this game whole.

Gambling Notes
-- BC has won six straight openers.
-- Weber State has not beaten a FBS team east of the Mississippi.
-- Weber State has never played an ACC team.
Because this is a FBS vs FCS game there is no line on the Saturday.

Factoid
This will be BC's first football game against a team from the Big Sky conference.

Scoreboard watching
The most important game of the weekend is Boise State vs Virginia Tech We need the Hokies to smash them. A resounding win helps the conference and practically eliminates Boise State from a BCS game

I hope to see…
The true freshman play well. If you are going to burn redshirts you hope it is for meaningful players.

BC is in trouble if…
We turn the ball over too many times. We cannot make this game interesting.

Outlook
No disrespect for Weber State, but I am not really worried about this game. I think we will control throughout the game and win with ease.
Final Score: BC 41, Weber State 10

BC-USC preview

We are playing USC in two days. Doesn’t that seem weird? I know this version of USC is not the team that ruled the college football world earlier in the decade, but Pete Carroll will still be on the sideline. They’ll have their mega-band and horse and all the other pomp and circumstance. The game is in California. Sure, it is the Emerald Bowl not the Rose, but I am more excited about this game than most of the bowls we played during the past ten years.

Narrative talking point that you’ll tire of by the end of the game.
"Both of these teams have a bright future ahead in 2010…" With these lower tier bowls, the broadcast team often tends to build on the bowl game as spring boards for the next season. Don't buy into it. Sure, both teams will return most of their 2009 talent, but you never know what will happen between now and then. Look back to last year's Music City loss. Could anyone have predicted what happened with our coaching staff, with Herzy or with our QBs? This game is just a game.

Three Simple Keys
1. Establish the run and stick with it. USC allowed 173 rushing yards a game and got gashed in their losses to Oregon and Stanford. BC needs to follow the same plan and put the game on the line and Harris’ shoulders.
2. Give Barkley a variety of looks. Their freshman QB will be without some of his best weapons. Our heavy dose of Spaz zones should keep him off balance and lead him to force things.
3. Red Zone scoring. It almost cost us Maryland. Tranq needs to add a few new wrinkles (play action perhaps) and convert every opportunity.

Gambling Notes
-- BC is 4-4 against Pac 10 teams all time
-- USC has covered the spread in four of their last five bowl games
-- BC has not been an underdog in a bowl game since 2004
The current line is BC+ 7.5


Factoid
I don’t know if he will mention it on the air, but ESPN’s play-by-play man Joe Tessitore is a Boston College grad.

Scoreboard Watching
I watch parts of most bowl games, but none of them really matter. Also, don't get caught up in the ACC's post season success (or lack thereof). The only thing that will help the perception of BC nationally is beating USC.

I hope to see…
Someone other than Harris get carries in the bazooka/wildcat. The concept loses its effectiveness if Harris keeps it every time. Plus there were some big runs to be had if he had given it up during the Maryland game.

BC is in trouble if…
USC gets big plays. Even though they are not what they were, they still have plenty of people who can score quickly. BC needs to contain. The cushion, bend but don't break mentality should work here. We need to execute and play smart.

Bottom Line
I have a good feeling about this game. I think USC will come out strong but we'll hold them. By the second half, we'll have established the tempo and pull away in the fourth quarter.
Final Score: BC 28, USC 17