Credit where it is due

The Big East split was nasty. BC got dragged through the mud and I still have real animosity towards the Commissioner, West Virginia and UConn. I felt sorry for Syracuse, was indifferent towards Pitt and pitied Rutgers. Looks like the Scarlet Knights didn’t need my pity.

I am a Jersey guy (Bergen County) and can tell you Rutgers was an afterthought sportswise in the state when they were below average. When they got really bad, they became a joke. To think they are now on the verge of a BCS game is astonishing. I always considered Greg Schiano a fool for taking the job. Shows you what I know. He has worked incredibly hard on the recruiting fronts and sold players with his passion. But it is not all about talent. Last night he outschemed supposed offensive genius Bobby Petrino when it counted.

I always assumed that if he did turn things around, that Schiano would be on the first flight to Miami. Now, I wonder why he would leave. A few more successful years and Rutgers could build enough momentum to be a perennial power. And he would be a legend in the state.

But Rutgers should serve as an example to anyone who says BC football can never be more than it is today. They’ve come a lot farther down than we have and are having their lightning in a bottle moment. It can happen anywhere with the right coach and right players.

BC-Duke preview

This is a perfect bounce back game. Duke is bad. Real bad. Sure, they’ve been close a few times, but most of their opponents have thrashed them. Hopefully BC will enter this game motivated and put it away early.

Theme that won’t be discussed on television
Ted Roof is barely hanging on at Duke and his career shows how quickly fortunes can change. Roof was one of the hottest assistants in the country as Defensive Coordinator at Georgia Tech under George O’Leary. He then left Tech to follow O’Leary to Notre Dame. We all know how that ended. So Roof scrambled to find a job, was hired by Duke as a Defensive Coordinator, then named interim coach midseason, then Head Coach when it seemed like the team responded. As Head Coach he has been unable to turn the Blue Devils around and will probably be an assistant again in the near future. Now imagine if the Notre Dame thing hadn’t blown up in his face. Say he and O’Leary put together a nice run. He probably could have parleyed that job into a head job at a much better program than Duke.

Three Simple Keys
1. Shutdown Duke’s passing game. While the Blue Devils are dead last in the conference in Total Offense, their passing game has been the lesser of the two evils. I think BC should blitz often and force the Blue Devils into mistakes.
2. Get the running game on track. BC’s ground attack hit a low point last week. Against Duke things will inevitably get better. But BC should use it as an opportunity to see what really works. Find an offensive line combination and a lead back (Brooks and Smith should also be considered) and stick with it. BC can experiment this week, but Miami and Maryland are must wins.
3. Rest Ryan. The time off during the Buffalo game seemed to help. Ryan moved better than he had in weeks. I would like to see Crane get into this game as soon as possible, so that Matt is a little less gimpy for Maryland.

Gambling Notes
-- BC is 1-4 against the spread in November home games the last three years
-- This win would tie TOB’s longest home win streak at nine
-- It has been 40 games since Duke beat a division IA team.
The current line is BC-28

What would be a pleasant surprise? TOB taking a fresh look at the running game and giving Brooks and/or Smith some meaningful first quarter carries.

What would be a letdown? A flat start and a narrow win.

What would be a shocker? A loss. Duke scared Wake and Miami, but we are playing at home, at night on national TV, and coming off a bad tasting loss. If this team doesn’t win this game, than they deserve to go to Boise.

Bottom Line
BC will win this game. Regardless of the multiple mental errors against Wake, this team is still pretty mature and capable. I think Duke will try to make it a game, but I think BC just has too much of a talent advantage.
Final Score: BC 38, Duke 14

Basketball Outlook

Is there anyone you would rather have on your team?

I’ve really neglected basketball this offseason. Fortunately TWood has created a very good BC Basketball blog. I will be covering basketball here and at AOL this year, but want to start things off with my mini-preview of the 2006-2007 season.

Outlook: BC enters its second season in the ACC with plenty of confidence. They know they can win on the road and hang with the Big Boys on Tobacco Road. The team has to replace the leadership and production of Louis Hinnant and Craig Smith, but has enough remaining pieces to challenge for the ACC title and make another run in the tournament.


What’s new: Supposedly the flex will expand this year. Without Smith’s big body, Al and company plan on stretching the court and use sets that would remind people of the Troy Bell days. Despite my reservations, I trust Al. If worse comes to worse, I think a transition back to the packed sets of last season would not be that hard. My fear with the spread flex is that Marshall’s perimeter game is streaky, Dudley is best close to the basket, and Williams was looking better on offense in March. But the new look could also help keep teams expecting a bruising BC team off balance.

The team also includes new faces Shamari Spears, Tyler Roche, Daye Kabe. Spears is expected to be the biggest contributor of the bunch. Al’s success in finding Freshman contributors is well known. In past years word of mouth would alert us to the breakout freshman before the games even started. Unfortunately things have been quiet from the Heights. Hopefully one of the guys will blossom to all-Freshman ACC status as the season progresses.

Al also has some new assistants. Bill Cooley and Ed Coen got much deserved head coaching jobs this offseason. Al reshuffled and hired some new guys. Mo Cassara joins the team as an assistant. Duquette and Colson got promoted and Preston Murphy takes over Colson old job as the Ops guy. I really liked the Cassara hire as he has head coaching experience and has evaluated plenty of high school talent.

What can we count on: Jared Dudley. He is one of the best players in the country. With a great Senior season, he has a chance to finish his career as the best Forward in Boston College history. I don’t think he’ll miss Smith. In fact, I think he’ll be more productive and get more people involved in the offense. A team with a healthy Dudley is lock to make the tournament.

What do we need to be better than just a tournament team?: To win the ACC and make a deep run into the NCAA Tournament, BC needs three guys to step up. The first is Sean Marshall. Marshall can be a solid player when he plays to his strengths. When he tries to be something he is not (a ball handler or a sharp shooter) his contributions hurt the team. If he and the coaches can keep his game in check, He can be a huge positive for BC. The second step up guy is Ty Rice. He was reckless with the ball at times, but equally cool when BC needed a big shot. The offense is his now, so he needs to get to a turnover-assist ratio close to what Hinnant maintained. A few huge threes wouldn’t hurt either. The final piece to the puzzle is the mercurial Sean Williams. His short suspension leaves me worried. But based on his play late last year and progress over the summer, I think he can be the ACC defensive player of the year. If he is, BC will be a Top 10 team.

Bottom Line: Skinner got over his Sweet 16 hump last year. Now let’s see us go a step farther. I like the mix on the team and love Dudley. Should be a very good season with a chance at something special.

New pages in the playbook

[Once again, this is all from my own observations. I have no access to the playbook. Please excuse the crude jpgs.]

Dana Bible is not a popular Offensive Coordinator. As I've said before, I think he is ok. One thing he deserves credit for is taking the latest fad college offense (the spread option) and incorporating it into BC's offense.

We've used it throughout the season. The formation and play got its biggest test on Matt Ryan's TD run against Wake. It was a good call, especially on fourth down. The design gives Matt a few options. Ryan is not the mobile Vince Young-style QB who can use this offense up and down the field. However, in goal line situations, where he only needs a few yards, Ryan can be very effective.

Here is how it plays out.

1. BC starts the play in the shotgun. Unlike most teams running this style of offense, like Florida, we still use a Tight End and a Fullback. On the the play against Wake, Whitworth set up to Ryan's right, which is the strong side.


2. At the snap the line pushes left. Palmer leads as if he is blocking for Whitworth. The WRs engage their corners. The key to the play is Ryan and the Tight End. I haven't talked to anyone on the staff, but if we run it like other schools, Ryan truly has an option (multiple, actually). His first decision is to give it to Whitworth. I imagine he is reading the Strong Side Linebacker and the Strong Side Safety. If they bite on the run, he can pull the ball back from LV. Against Wake he seemed like he was keeping it all the way (and I don't blame him considering it was 4th down and we were down by 14.)


3. The second choice for Ryan is: keep it himself or pass. He's got to make his decision fast. His only choices for pass are the Tight End (who released from the line) or potentially the WR. But in a goal line situation, it is unlikely the WR is able to get much separation in such a small area.



4. In the Wake game, Ryan kept it himself. He needs two things: to move fast and get some blocking from his Tight End. The Tight End must read Ryan. As soon as the QB decides to keep the ball, the Tight End must quickly switch from pass catcher to blocker. His responsibility is to get in the way of any defender trying to recover from the play fake to the RB.


On Saturday, this play produced a Touchdown. Ryan barely got in but it worked. BC has struggled in the redzone the past few years, so I welcome Bible adopting other teams' successes for our personnel.

Blogpoll ballot

I pounded BC and I wasn't the only one. To even consider the Top 15, BC is going to need to run the table.

Games I Watched
BC-Wake Forest 100% (twice)
Louisville-West Virginia 50%
LSU-Tennessee 75%
Clemson-Maryland 50%

Rank	Team	Delta
1	Ohio State	--
2	Michigan	--
3	Louisville	1
4	Auburn	1
5	Florida	7
6	Texas	--
7	Southern Cal	2
8	Notre Dame	--
9	California	5
10	Arkansas	--
11	Wake Forest	8
12	Rutgers	1
13	West Virginia	10
14	LSU	3
15	Tennessee	8
16	Boise State	10
17	Oklahoma	1
18	Georgia Tech	4
19	Brigham Young	1
20	Oregon	5
21	Wisconsin	6
22	Boston College	11
23	Virginia Tech	--
24	Maryland	--
25	Texas A&M	7

Dropped Out: Clemson (#21).

Grade Report and Second Viewing Thoughts: Wake Forest

It sucked watching this back. There were about ten different moments where we could have taken over the game and yet the ball bounced the other way. Let’s hope this was the worst of it. BC needs to play close to perfect over the next three weeks.

Offense: C

Matt Ryan threw for more than 400 yards and ran really well on a gimpy leg. He stood tall in a constantly collapsing pocket. He made some great throws through heavy traffic. He kept drive alives on multiple third and longs and converted some critical 4th downs. On the other side, his two INTs were terrible, terrible plays. He also got lucky that at least six other passes were not picked. And he missed an easy pass to Callender on his sack that was nearly a safety. The worst part about the two INTs, is he could’ve had an easy TD to Gonzo on the first pick. On the second pick a tighter pass would’ve gotten to Challenger before the Safety and the post to Gonzo still looked like a better option. But we would’ve have even been in the game without him. If I gave individual grades, I would’ve given him a B-.

I killed the Running Backs this weekend, so let me get their good deeds out of the way. Both were excellent in pass protection. Both were very good in the passing game. Both were bad carrying the ball…LV especially. He missed open holes. His reactions were slow. And the fumble -- a killer. As Ed Cunningham pointed out the hit that dislodged the ball was a glance. I am just amazed that we still had a chance after that. Callender was better, but not much. I wish he’d step up, but he hasn’t.

The Wide Receivers were the fantastic. They made clutch catch after clutch catch. They got to the open spots as much as possible. They made catches in coverage. They added some yards after the catch (which we haven’t seen too much of this year). My only gripe is that they are getting in a habit of running short of the first down marker on third down. But they all made plays. I was especially happy with Megwa and Gunnell getting shots. Sele also showed some real toughness.

The line’s performance was very uneven and borderline bad. First let me say the Beekman Center stuff backedfired the one time we did it. He was slow on a snap getting a false start. This led us to 1st and 15 and eventually punting from deep in our own end. Marten got beat bad on one sack. He also got called for some penalties. Cherilus was good in pass protection, but whiffed a few times when pulling. He also got called for some drive killing penalties.

The playcalling was mixed. When we ran early, Wake used their speed to immediately collapse the line. Yet it took us a while to adjust. Why didn’t we use the play action more as it worked and opened space? I was glad to finally see play action on the First and Toal. But we had 400+ yards passing. The reason we didn’t score more -- penalties and turnover.

Defense: C+

The Defensive line was the primary defensive problem. Brady Smith, Larkin, Raji and Brace all played poorly (and Brace got called for a costly personal foul). Smith and Larkin got pushed around and did not maintain their contain, which is crucial against an offense that uses so much misdirection. Giles played well. Bell played well. Willette even got some good snaps. Too bad we were in a hole while they were on the field.

Toal played very well. Dunbar was in a funk, missed tackles and was out of position on some plays. Francois was solid in limited snaps. Pruitt played well. Akins played well again.

The secondary was ok. They picked two passes. Slowed many drives, but were also part of two scores. The second TD was due to coverage confusion between Glasper and Tribble (I also wonder what Silva was supposed to be doing on the play). Silva also took a bad angle on the third TD. If he had played back even just a little we could have prevented the touchdown.

I was really disappointed in Spaz. This is our fourth straight year playing Wake, yet their offense still gives us problem. They are not a big play offense yet get big plays against us. 127 of their 296 yards came on two plays. How does this happen every year? Also the four man front was not generating any pressure. Blitzing was successful, yet we didn’t start using it extensively until the second half. Too little too late.

Special Teams: C-

The first lousy kick coverage set the down for the day. Ohliger is getting no distance on his kicks.

Ayers first punt was partially blocked. His other kicks were shorter than past weeks.

Sid Vicious' kick was off and we cannot even attempt a long Field Goal.

Tribble allowed too many punts to hit the ground and roll against us.

Smith looked solid in his returns.

Overall: C+

In short: so close, yet so far. As I’ve said, this is ultimately on TOB. His team has looked slow and lost for four straight years against Wake. This is so frustrating. Let’s hope this is the low point.

AOL update

Here is my take on our Jacksonville aspirations over at the Fanhouse. I think I represent many BC fans when I say: I am positive that Wake will lose two more times and I am positive that we will blow our second chance by dropping one of our final three games.

Guest Photographer: LBI Eagle

LBI Eagle learned something this weekend that I found out two years ago: never take the road trip to Wake Forest. Winston-Salem is a nice town and the Wake fans are fine. It is just that the results on the field make the return home very long. LBI shared his pregrame pics below.

A good quote from TOB

Many of TOB's critics dislike him for his tendency to assign blame to his players without taking any on himself. Well the Globe printed a good quote in Monday’s paper regarding Matt Ryan blaming himself for the loss:


"It's not his fault. We're all in this together: coaches, offense, defense, special teams. It was a team effort and we lost as a team and we're going to go on, but he's highly critical of himself and that's why he's such a good player, because it's very important to him."


Now let’s hope TOB can rally the team with this same sort of mentality -- “we’re all in this together.”

Deja Vu

No, not losing to Wake. The deja vu I am talking about is Sean Williams and Akida McClain's suspensions. Williams is out for two games and McClain for nine for violation of team rules. At this point I am pissed at the players. Both have been in trouble in the past and should know better. Thankfully Williams' suspension is only for two games. Last year it took him a while to get up to speed. Missing two early games shouldn't set him back. McClain...who knows? He adjusted pretty quickly coming back from suspension last year. This year, his role on the team is less defined and so this might bury him on the bench. Regardless, if this is the only issue this season, it won't set the team back. BTW, the team played well in its first exhibition.

Grades coming Monday.

Tobacco Road Woes

First let me get the congrats to Wake, Jim Grobe and their fans out of the way. The Deacs are legit and I hope they go all the way.

Now I have to ask: can we change the schedule or divisions so we don't have to play them every year? Terrible. Just terrible. TOB remains winless during the regular season in the state of North Carolina.

My takeaways are over on the Fanhouse.

Fortunately I have a really good life outside of BC sports, because these sorts of games are just so painful. I really thought we were going to pull it out -- and we didn't deserve to win. The debates are already starting on the message boards about who deserves the blame for this game. There is plenty to go around, but ultimately it is on TOB. Strategy wise Wake controlled. Composure, Wake controlled. Even talent, you could argue that Wake had the advantage. As far as the guys on the field, the WRs played really well. Ryan was gutsy, and made some great plays but also made two killer INTs. Offensive and defensive lines got dominated.

I'll watch the game again Sunday and have my grades and second thoughts up late Sunday or Monday. I hope I can sleep.

Link roundup

A short preview on the Fanhouse.

Finally some basketball coverage. I am very excited about the season, but still haven't switched gears yet. Stuff will be coming.

Nice feature on Herzlich.

Looking back: Wake Forest 2005

The first two Wake games were tough losses. The karma swung back around last year as Matt Ryan sparked a brilliant comeback when everything seemed loss.

Set up
BC came into the game emotionally drained. The week before during the Virginia game, Kiwi received one of the worst cheap shots I’ve seen in college sport. Fired up by the fight, the team went on to steamroll UVA. It didn’t seem like much was left in the tank for the Deacs. Add the month-long monsoon and it is no surprise that they came out flat.

Wake entered the game at 2-4 and seemed like less of a threat for an upset than their previous two squads.

What Happened?
BC played sloppy from the get go. Porter fumbled early giving Wake great field position and an easy touchdown. Every time the team dug out of its hole, something bad would happen – dropped pass, blocked punt, etc. The fall guy was Porter. The Maine Man was pressing and looked terrible. He threw three picks before getting pulled late in the fourth.

I thought TOB pulled Porter just to stop the bleeding. Little did anyone know that Matt Ryan was going to try to win the game. The Super Soph came out slinging it and seemed oblivious to the rain, the clock or the pressure. He quickly hooked up with Gonzo for a TD. The defense made a huge stand giving BC one last possession. Ryan, poised as ever, chucked a few more beauties before connecting with Challenger (Challenger made a great over the shoulder catch and got his feet inbounds).

This game made up for the two painful losses. I still smile thinking about it.

Long-term implications
This was really the end of Quinton Porter. Unfortunately TOB didn’t make it official until two more losses. It also confirmed Matt Ryan’s rep for having ice in his veins.

Looking back: Wake Forest 2004

As regular readers know, I can usually talk my wife into one road trip a year. In 2004 we drove to Winston-Salem for the BC-Wake game. The drive up was bad and our hotel was worse. We hoped things would get better come game time. They didn't.

Set up
BC entered the game flying high. This was their final year in the Big East and the team started 3-0. Some fans (including me) looked ahead at the schedule and realized we could end up in a BCS game. We were also in the middle of the all too short Paul Peterson era. The JUCO transfer entered the game 6-0 as a starter and carried that “we can’t lose with him as QB” aura about him.

Wake entered the game at 2-1.

At this point BC already knew they were headed to the ACC. BC was also short on home games. Gene tried to get this game played at Alumni, but Wake was not interested in flipping dates.

What happened?
BC moved the ball and accumulated 451 total yards. However, the offense kept stalling in the Red Zone. BC sent out Freshman Kicker Ryan Ohliger to capitalize. He missed all three FGs he attempted with each one looking worse than the attempt before. Ohliger’s final miss came with a little over 3 minutes left. Guess what happened next? Wake slowly moved the ball, before connecting on a 40-yard TD with a minute left.

What were the long-term implications?
This was the first indicator of how fragile Ryan Ohliger’s psyche was (yet we still kept sending him out there). It didn’t impact BC’s Big East standings, but it should’ve served as a warning to those hopeful fans (like me) to not get their hopes up.

BC-Wake Forest Preview

Well, we now move to this week’s version of the “most important game of the season and possibly TOB’s career.” I know I keep coming back to that angle, but this season has been a series of huge tests…of the team and the coach. Clemson, due to its place in the schedule, will always propel the winner to key spot in the division and leave the loser in a hole. Virginia Tech has been a constant thorn in TOB’s side. The win was crucial (especially after the NC State loss). And Florida State, while down, still represented a marquee program and the type of school that has always given TOB trouble.

Wake is crucial for two reason. First, the game will probably decided the Atlantic Division winner. Second, if not for Matt Ryan coming off the bench to save the day, TOB would be 0-3 vs Grobe. BC has had the talent advantage in each game but BC has allowed Wake to dictate the style of play. BC needs to make a statement early in the game, because letting the Deacs hang around is deadly.

Theme that won’t be discussed on television
You can count on the announcers guffawing early that “I bet John Swofford never thought this matchup would decide the conference when he expanded the ACC.” What you won’t hear is that the people of Jacksonville could care less about who is in the game. They are just so happy to be hosting it. Don’t fret if BC or Wake make the game. It will still be a sellout. The Mayor will buy every empty seat there is just to assure that the ACC continues to host the game in North Florida. When the ACC went shopping for destinations, Miami, Tampa, Orlando, Charlotte and Jacksonville all put in bids. Jacksonville’s blew the others away because they need the game the most. It is a showcase for the city and a boost to the tourism business during a relatively slow time of year. And if BC makes the game, it is even better for the ACC due to TV ratings. Virginia Tech or Clemson might sell more tickets, but we will bring in more viewers.

Three simple keys
1. Come out firing. Grobe has certainly improved the talent level at Wake, but I still think BC can and should pass early and exploit our depth at WR.
2. When stopping the run, don’t forget about the pass. In the past three games we’ve been so focused on stopping the run that we’ve allowed numerous big plays through the air on play action (and even one flea flicker). The safeties need it drilled in their head to stay back.
3. Get to Skinner. The only team that really beat him up was Clemson (4 sacks). BC needs to its front four to apply pressure and continue the Akins from anywhere strategy.

Gambling Notes
-- BC is 13-6-1 against the spread the last 20 road games in November
-- TOB is 12-12 as a road favorite
-- Over the last three meetings Wake has scored 79 points. BC has scored 77
The currnet line is BC -3.5

What would be a pleasant surprise? BC winning big. I respect Grobe and what he has done. I will never take his team’s lightly. They have been lucky this year, but even at 1-7, I would be nervous facing the Deacs.

What would be a letdown? Another Wake game-winning TD pass in the final minutes.

What would be a shocker? A Matt Ryan meltdown. I won’t say any sort of Wake win would shock me. But I would be shocked if we lost because Ryan came out and played like Quinton Porter played against Wake last year.

Bottom Line
This game scares me. However, I like the approach the team seems to be taking. I think the game is close, but BC comes out ahead.

Final Score: BC 28, Wake 24.

Looking back: Wake Forest 2003

Just because Halloween is over doesn’t mean we can’t deal with scary topics. In honor of the Wake Forest game, I’ve decided to look back at the recent history of the series, which saw two unimaginable losses and one spectacular comeback. Here is a look back at the 2003 game a painful 32-28 loss.

Set up
2003 was a clear transition year. TOB was entering his 7th season at the Heights. He had an experienced staff and a roster full of players he recruited, but was replacing his Quarterback. No one knew what to expect from Quinton Porter. Three things had BC fans worried:

-- TOB abandoned his “give the backup QB a drive in the second quarter” strategy when Porter was a sophomore
-- TOB brought in a JUCO QB as an insurance policy
-- TOB never entertained giving Porter any playing time as Brian St. Pierre regressed in 2002.

BC opened the season at home against Wake Forest. BC was favored.


What happened?
The game was closer than it should have been. Every time it seemed like BC was going to control the game, we ended up doing something stupid…swinging the momentum back to the Deacs. BC entered the 4th with a 21-12 lead. Two big plays stand out: Wake's 43-yard touchdown pass with 1:43 and Quinton Porter’s bizarre fumble (which I've been calling the fumbleception) which killed BC’s last chance at victory.


What were the long-term implications?
BC would bounce back the next week against Penn State, but their uneven play would be a sign of things to come. The 2004 team struggled in the Big East. It was only after Paul Peterson became the starter that the team finally played to its potential, winning its last three games. The Wake game also proved to be a good microcosm of Quinton Porter: nice kid, with some tools, yet unable to make the play with the game on the line.

Wake Forest Guest Blogger: Chris Chase

Being a fan is funny. Take Chris Chase for example. The Redskins are No. 1 in his heart and he is watching his boyhood hero Joe Gibbs struggle like Wayne Fontes. But proving that God does listen, he is making it up to Chris by helping Wake to their best season in years. I've asked Chris back to guest blog and give us some insight into this week's pivotal game. Check out his blog for more on DC and Deacon sports.

1. Grobe's approach is well known, but this year's team seems a little more well rounded than past squads. The passing, while still at the bottom of the conference, looks a little more crisp than past years and they are completing passes at a high percentage. And unlike some games, it seem like this season, Wake can pass when they need to. Is it the QB, overall talent or a coaching adjustment?

Chris Chase: Wow, Bill, you’re not wasting any time here with an easy warm-up question are you? Must be a big game or something this weekend. Who would have thought that an early November game between our two alma maters would be more important than the VThug and The (Cell Block) U match-up. Of course, one could argue that three of the participants in those two games aren’t truly ACC teams, but since I’m a gracious guest on your blog, said person will not be me. One could make that point though. One, but not this one.

As for the Deacs offense, it’s tough to say why there seems to be more balance than in the past. A cursory look at the stats indicates that not much has changed as Wake still occupies their normal spot near the top of the ACC rushing leaders and in the cellar for passing. But a closer glance shows the Deacs are a surprising #1 in the conference in passing efficiency and also are the leaders in yards per pass, a complete reversal from years past when the Deacs would be near the bottom in both categories. It’s easy to say that difference has been due to redshirt Freshman QB Riley Skinner, who replaced injured starter Ben Mauk in the season opener, but there’s probably a little more to it than that.

Because of the loss of ACC Player of the Year Chris Barclay to graduation and the injury to his successor at RB, Micah Andrews, Jim Grobe didn’t have the backfield stud he’s been used to. This forced him to change his usual plan of trying to wear defenses down with an almost-maniacal dedication to the run. With De’Angelo Bryant and Kevin Harris sharing carries, Grobe hasn’t been as reliant on a single RB to grind it out on the ground, thus opening up the playbook a bit more. And because he can’t run with as much success, Grobe’s been forced to call pass plays. In Riley Skinner, he’s found an efficient quarterback not prone to making mistakes in key situations like Cory Randolph or Mauk.

The two-back system also is a plus. Barclay had over 230 carries per season in his last three years at Wake and was likely gassed at the end of games when Grobe would almost hand him the ball exclusively. Now Grobe has two guys to share duties.

2. Every ACC game, including Duke and UNC, has been close. What's the deal? Is this team getting lucky. Are they as good as their record?

Chris Chase: In a word, no. It’s easy for the Deacs to look back on the Clemson game (when they had a 17-3 4th quarter lead) and think, “damn, we should be 8-0,” but playing that game would be like opening up a Pandora’s Box of what-ifs.
What-if Wake’s backup safety hadn’t blocked a potentially game-winning field goal by Duke in the game’s final seconds? What-if Connecticut kicker Matt Nuzie hadn’t missed an extra-point and a go-ahead field goal of his own? What-if Wake kicker Sam Swank had missed one of his three 50-yard+ field goals against N.C. State? Or what-if Josh Gattis hadn’t been able to keep hold of a game-winning interception in that same game when the Wolfpack were driving for the winning score?

And finally, what-if, as time expired, UNC QB Joe Dailey had thrown the ball to his own man in the end zone instead of to Wake’s Jon Abbate last weekend in Chapel Hill?
Sure, Wake Forest could easily be 8-0, but they could just as easily be 3-5. I wouldn’t call it luck since the Deacs have made the plays when it has counted most. Instead they’ve just been… Fortunate. Yes, let’s go with that. And, in football, that’s really all that matters. There isn’t a normalization of statistics in a 12-game season like there is in baseball. If Wake played the same eight-game stretch 100 different times, 7-1 would probably be the best record they’d have. They’d probably average 4-4 or, optimistically, 5-3. But this is of no consequence to the team. They’re a deserving 7-1 and shouldn’t be lightly regarded by any school, no matter their strength.

This Deacs squad reminds me of the 2001 Chicago Bears; an above-average team making enough plays to give-off the appearance of a great one. This isn’t to say the Deacs can’t compete against the upper-echelon teams in the ACC (their near-miss against Clemson should prove this), but there’s no way they’re the 22nd best team in the country either.

3. Given how the last 3 minutes of last year's game went, I expect BC to come out passing. Who is a difference maker on defense who might foil that idea?

Chris Chase: Earlier this week, safety Josh Gattis became the first repeat winner of the ACC’s Defensive Back of the Week award this season. So he’s a guy to watch. (When did they start rewarding the best defensive back on a weekly basis anyway? Aren’t we getting a bit too specialized here? What’s next, a prize for ACC Linebacker of the Week: Bantemweight Division or ACC Punt Return Coverage Player of the Game?)

The aforementioned Abbate is also fairly beastly at linebacker. People forget he was a member of the Freshman All-American team two seasons ago but was slowed down by injuries last year as a sophomore. This season, Abbate leads the Deacs in tackles and has the lateral quickness that has been missing from Wake LBs in recent years.
The key to this game might lie in the special teams though. Sam Swank is continuing the tradition of great kicking specialists at Wake, handling both the punting and kicking duties. If it comes down to his foot, Wake Forest would be in good hands. I swear that made sense when I first wrote it.

4. Finally, given our recent history, I think this is going down to the wire. I still think BC will pull it out. What's your prediction?

Chris Chase: When you asked me to write a little preview of the Deacs this summer, I never would have predicted that this game would be played with so much on the line.
Wake’s football futility has been well-documented. They haven’t been to a bowl game since 1999 and hadn’t been ranked for three consecutive weeks since 1987. Saturday’s match-up is the first meeting at Groves Stadium between ranked teams since 1979.
With the 7-1 record it’s easy to forget that, at the beginning of the year, any Wake Forest fan would have taken seven wins and the bowl bid it brings without blinking. Now, we’re getting spoiled and want to do the unthinkable; play in the ACC Championship Game. It’s not gonna happen.
The Deacs can hang with Boston College but, in the end, your Eagles’ athleticism and experience will win out. Riley Skinner has been great this season, but he has yet to play from behind. In front of the most excited Wake crowd in history (which, FYI, isn’t saying much) and a national TV audience, don’t be surprised if Skinner gets rattled if put in an early hole. From there, it could get ugly. I’ll be praying for a win, but won’t be disappointed with a loss. After all, 7-2 is a whole lot better than 3-5.

AOL and TOB

Dave has a good look at the TOB to UNC rumors. I don't think he'll be their pick but I do believe he has interest. Like Dave, I think UNC has huge upside yet is relatively low pressure (because basketball will always be king there). We'll see how it plays out.

My take on the Wake Running Back situation over at the Fanhouse.

Lucky or good?

Wake Forest and Boston College both enter Saturday’s game with only one loss. Both are only a few plays from being undefeated. Yet both got very lucky and could just as easily have lost three or four different games. So I tried to see who was more lucky so far through the statistical and the subjective.

Strength of Schedule

You can run up a good record by playing nobodies (*cough, Rutgers, cough*). Of the two schools, BC has played the tougher schedule. Our current Colley Strength of Schedule ranking is 46 (it took a hit after playing Buffalo). Wake’s is an embarrassing 114th (worse than Rutgers).


Point Differential

A one-point win counts as much as a 40-point win. Over the course of a season though, the big wins tend to prove a team’s worth, while too many one-point wins shows a certain amount of luck. Luck runs out. While each game is a statistically independent event, I would expect a team with a record better than their point differential to come crashing down to earth eventually. So far based purely on point differential Wake’s record is slightly better than it should with a mark of +65. BC heads into the game with the same record but a point differential of +100. For a frame of reference, here are some other teams, their record and current point differential. Rutgers, 8-0, +161. Florida, 7-1, +114. USC, 6-1, +88. Oklahoma, 6-2, +126.

“We’re lucky we won that game” wins

This is purely subjective, but something that needs to be addressed. I define “we’re lucky…” wins as anything that turned late on a somewhat fluky play and handed BC or Wake the victory. But my count, Wake has had three of these, while BC has had two.

-- Wake held off Duke with a last second blocked field goal. This was after trailing most of the day and only going ahead with just over a minute to play.

-- Wake also needed a late INT returned for a TD to hold off UConn.

-- Finally, Wake needed a last minute INT to keep UNC from sending their game into OT.

-- On BC’s side. BC blocked a Clemson PAT in OT to hold off the Tigers at home.

-- BC also needed a second OT to beat BYU. The Cougars missed a FG in the first OT.


So both teams are lucky to be where they are. Of the two I would say that WF has been more lucky/overachieved. My hope is that their luck will end starting this Saturday.

Wake Week

Saturday night's game is shaping up to be huge -- the 2006 version of the most important game of TOB's career. In addition to news and AOL updates, this is what I have on tap for the week:

-- Guest Blogging from Wake grad, Chris Chase
-- A look back at each game of the Wake WTF Forest Series
-- Game Preview
-- Anything else that might come up.