Ugly football but still optimistic

The fact that as BC's turnovers piled up, I still felt we could win is a huge sign of progress. But it was not to be as for the first time Hafley lost decisively as BC's coach. Turnovers are frustrating all the time, but especially on a night when BC moved the ball. The maligned OLine looked better but our RBs couldn't hold onto the ball and Jurk got careless a few times. But I still believe we are on the right track. It is up to Hafley to reset and get things fixed. I think he will.

Hafley: "Unfortunately in football, if you make mistakes like we did, you can't win. We'll look at the film and fix our mistakes."

— Tyler Calvaruso (@tyler_calvaruso) October 18, 2020

Game Day Info: Virginia Tech

No comments this year.

What you need to know

Weather: The game will start in the 50s and drop to the 40s. This is our coldest game of the season so far.

Radio: SiriusXM 382

TV: The ACC Network.

BC-Virginia Tech preview

I understand that is is very, very early in the Hafley era. I also know he will have to prove a lot as he brings in his own players, adjusts to a normal year, adjusts to teams getting a feel for how he coaches, and many other hurdles. But I am pretty confident he is the best and most aggressive game manager we've had in my time as a BC fan. Jags was aggressive but it always felt like he was going with his gut and sort of a gambler, where Hafley seems more analytical. The fact that we've been in close games nearly every week and continue to push to score instead of being conservative is a huge change. The fact that we can run a two minute drill is a huge change. But most important is that the sidelines don't seem chaotic during crunch time. Think of how manic Addazio and his crew were during the final minute against Wake years ago. That's not happening now and I think BC will win more just because of that approach. This week won't be the typical trip to Blacksburg, but that even-handed, smart approach should make a difference.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
Every week BC previews their uniform combo on social media and BC twitter (including me) weighs in on the latest look. This year has been heavy on the throwbacks. I have stated this in multiple places, but for the record let me say that I strongly prefer the throwbacks to our current uniform. However, I would like to see a full uniform refresh that has aspects of the throwback but looks most like the '90s BC uniform. There are plenty of rumors that a new look is coming. Hopefully it makes everyone happy...and has a single helmet stripe!

Three Simple Keys
1. Slow down their running game. It really is that simple. Our D has been good enough in bend but don't break mode. This week will be more about stopping the run on first and second down.
2. More production from Lamot. Because we've played so much nickle, Lamot hasn't been on the field as much. With VT being run first, that might change. Hopefully that means more support for McDuffie and Richardson.
3. Other guys in the passing game. It is nice that VT has to focus on Long and Flowers. That means other guys should have lots of opportunities. We could use big plays from Lewis, Gill and even Levy and Bailey.

Gambling Notes
-- Virginia Tech leads the series 18-10
-- Fuente is 34-20 at Lane Stadium
-- BC has never won three in a row in this series
The current line is BC+12

Factoid
Henning, Jags, and Addazio each won on their first trips to Blacksburg. TOB and Spaz did not.

Scoreboard Watching
I am curious to see how Louisville does with Notre Dame. I think the Irish are very overrated, however, Louisville has been a major dissapointment. Can they regroup against Notre Dame? Can someone show the Irish are not a Top 5 team? We face both and I think both of their records are decieving. It should be interesting to see if they play a close game.

I hope to see...continued great punting from Carlson. Obviously, I truly hope we never punt, but if we do, I trust Carlson. He's been very good so far this season.

BC is in trouble if...the offensive line continues its uneven play. Hafley addressed it after the game and with the media. He says we are just a few plays here and there from looking great. I hope he is right, because the breakdowns and misses put way too much pressure on Jurk to escape or throw into bad situations.

Overall
I don't get what the oddsmakers see. Is Virginia Tech good? Probably. But I think we are good too and have proven that we play to the level of our opponent (for better or worse). I think this is a back and forth game with lots of passing. I think a few turnovers go BC's way and we hold on to win.
Final Score: BC 31, Virginia Tech 27

Enjoying the roller coaster ride

Close games are not good for your health or your W-L record. But after three weeks of tense, back and forth games, I am thrilled that BC beat Pitt to improve to 3-1. But like our other close games, the big picture is still very encouraging. We have plenty of areas to improve (penalties, OL execution, Jurkovec's decision making) but we are still winning. The winning is coming from areas that have been much harder for BC to fix in previous administrations (in-game adjustments, aggressive play calling, late game execution).

The other thing that is great about a coaching change, is that there is always some guy who was overlooked or misused by the previous regime, who blossoms. For BC that is Zay Flowers. He had a huge day and made numerous unbelievable catches. 

There is still a lot of football left to play this year, but this first month of games has provided lots of hope and promise and wins...and that's all we wanted.  

Game Day: Pitt

No comments this year. 

What you need to know

Weather: Mid '60s with no chance to rain. Another perfect football day

Radio: SiriusXM 193 

TV: The ACC Network. If you don't have the ACC Network, perhaps get a temporary login for Hulu+ or Youtube TV.

BC-Pitt preview

We just played Pitt in November, yet BC Football and the world has changed dramatically since then. My fear at the time was gutting out that win might have saved Addazio. We know it didn't and instead led to the welcome change in leadership. This Pitt game is unlikely to provide any sort of capstone or turning point, however, it should be fun and winnable, which is all we can ask for at this time. 

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
While winning is primary, I think how this season is playing out should be good for Hafley and BC's recruiting. Stadiums are empty everywhere so using the "no fans" argument against us is negated for now. Hafley is getting a ton of positive media coverage, especially after last week's impromptu rant after the Long injury. The student life is still not back to normal, but BC is providing a more traditional college experience than most. If the team wins, the BC sales pitch will look that much better.

Three Simple Keys
1. Stops on 3rd down. Last week was beyond frustrating. The whole point of a bend but don't break D is not to allow long 3rd down conversions. Pickett is a good QB. If you give him time, he will find someone open. They need to bring him down.
2. Go deep more. The ease in which Jurkovec can fling it is probably something we haven't had since Shinskie. The late TD called back that Long caught was just a rope. We need to challenge donwfield more. The explosive plays can be backbreakers for Pitt.
3. Stay aggressive in Special Teams. The short kickoff didn't work, but the idea was good. I think we need to keep trying things like that, especially as an underdog.

Gambling Notes
-- Pitt leads the all time series 17-14
-- Pitt is 8-7 all time in Alumni
-- Narduzzi is 14-12 following a loss
The current line is BC+6

Factoid
This is the first time we've played Pitt in back to back years since the Big East days.

Scoreboard Watching
The only ACC game that matters -- other than ours -- is Miami-Clemson. Are the 'Canes back (again)? This season is already unpredictable. Who knows what the playoff will bring. The ACC will likely have at least one team in it, but if Miami proves to be great, maybe two can get in.

I hope to see...BC establish some sort of run game. I am not Addazio but I do think not running more is hurting the offense. So much would open up if we had believable play action. I also think Bailey is too much of an asset not to use.

BC is in trouble if...we are down going into the 4th Quarter. As much as I embrace the feeling of always being in the game, digging out of a hole game after game is not good for anyone. BC came up short last week. Let's not have that again.

Overall
I think this is a relatively low scoring defensive game. I think BC gets lucky with some turnovers to stall Pitt drives. I think instead of trying to comeback, this week we get ahead and hold on to the win.
Final Score: BC 21, Pitt 14

An encouraging loss

I don't like to fallback on "moral victories" but I will say this: I am a happy BC fan right now. We've played three games which I would call B/B- ball and are 2-1, including a near upset of a Top 20 team. And most exciting was once again, I never thought BC was out of the game and in the final moments I thought they were going to win. It is nice to feel that way.

There were still plenty of problems. Too many stupid penalties. Still way too much confusion up front and issues with the OLine. Jurk still has some bad decisions, including holding onto the ball too long and missing open guys. But I will say Hafley managed the game well and more than just the clock and timeouts, he also pushed the right emotional buttons. These are still young players who need those wake up calls.

I will try to have more in the coming days, but I feel real good about the season and the program.

Game Day: North Carolina

No comments this year.

What you need to know

Weather: Mid '60s, no rain

Radio: SiriusXM 193

TV: ABC

BC-North Carolina Preview

I don't know if we can consider last week magic. If you take your BC colored glasses off, it was more of a case of escaping with a win after a sloppy day. But those are the types of wins that often lead to a special season. You need some luck. You need some growing pains. And you need a little bonding among the players and coaches. The emotions of last week will be gone by kickoff, but maybe the learning and luck will still be there. We need both to pull off the upset.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
I don't know how plugged in the regular readers are to what's happening on campus, but BC is generally making more restrictions related to COVID. Based on their moves, I don't know if we will see students at sporting events any time soon. I also don't know what new and returning students even think of the BC experience right now. Going to and covering BC sports were big parts of my experience. I feel for those who miss it. I hope they realize how special this Hafley season might be. Even though they can't be in Alumni, being around it still might provide some great memories.

Three Simple Keys
1. Figure out the run game. We've done a lot on the ground so far and it has been a mixed bag. The basic stretch looked good. Some of the counter trey stuff was a mess. I liked Jurk running. I didn't like the direct handoff stuff to Levy. My suggestion is keep it easy to manage with some zones and option reads. Everything else can be put on the backburner for now.
2. Help the DBs in the red zone. Leaving Sebastion or any of the corners out on an island is dangerous. We don't have that level of talent there right now. Either give them more help or bring so much pressure that the passing is off.
3. Get back to stripping the ball out. Hafley said it was a priority. That showed against Duke. Last week the guys weren't seemingly as active. This week they need those takeaways.

Gambling Notes
-- UNC leads the series 2-5
-- UNC has won two in a row
-- North Carolina is 1-1 at Alumni
The current line is BC+13.5

Factoid
Mack Brown has coached more than 300 games, but this will be his first trip to Alumni as a coach.

Scoreboard Watching
Clemson v Virginia will be interesting. We all know Clemson is great and will probably be our toughest game. However, ending the season with UVA will also be tough. Seeing how the 'Hoos handle Clemson might give us an idea of just how tough.

I hope to see...better tackling. This might seem like silly thing to harp on, especially with how COVID put limitations on spring ball and game prep, but there were plenty of missed tackles against Texas State. The game shouldn't have been as close as it was. If BC makes five more tackles, half those drives end without even getting into BC territory.

BC is in trouble if...Jurkovec holds the ball too long. While the OLine has been very inconsistent, many of the sacks are also on Jurkovec for holding onto the ball too long and not throwing it away. He can't keep taking drive killing sacks.

Overall
This game will be tough. We looked out of sorts last week and certainly not capable of hanging with one of the better teams in the ACC. But my hope is the wakeup call from last week leads to a cleaner, better game this week. I think this goes back and forth and BC holds on to win another close game at home.
Final Score: BC 28, UNC 24

Ugly and beautiful and still undefeated

I will watch the game back and try to get a better feel for all the issues, but the big takeaways from the win over Texas State was that BC played poorly and still won, and BC managed the final few minutes (which included two scores and a stop) better than they've handled any close game in a decade. I know Hafley spent a lot of time on situational football, and clock and sideline management this summer. It paid off tonight.

There were plenty of issues. Texas State made our D look slow and sloppy. Jurk was inconsistent and made some rough throws. The Offensive Line is not where it should be. But who cares right now? Those things can be fixed and are much easier to fix after a win!

 

A 7-play, 49-yard Jurkovec-led drive with under a minute to go results in a game-winning 36-yard FG from Aaron Boumerhi.

The former Temple transfer (who missed Wk 1 with an injury) drilled it right down the middle.

A huge kick from Boumerhi. pic.twitter.com/ExNNLLtPcY

— Andy Backstrom (@andybackstrom) September 27, 2020

Game Day: Texas State

 No comments this year.

What you need to know

Weather: High 70s with no chance to rain. Perfect football weather.

Radio: SiriusXM 207

TV: Regional sports networks. Here are the affiliates.

BC-Texas State preview

If Addazio were on the sidelines for this game, I would be worried. Same for Spaz. Maybe even TOB. I am not worried with Hafley. One game shouldn't buy me this much confidence, especially with how competitive Texas State has been. But I am in the honeymoon phase and felt really good about how Hafley already fixed some of the glaring defensive issues from last year.

While this is technically a home opener, it won't feel the same with an intentionally empty Alumni. Fortunately you don't need to lean on the home field factor when your team is well prepared.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
I am glad to have BC Football back. I am glad to have games in Massachusetts. But seeing other stadiums have some fans without issue, makes me think BC can and should be doing it. I know it is easy for me to say. I don't go to games anyway. However, there are people that want to go back into Alumni. And who are we kidding? This game wouldn't be filled under normal circumstances. I hope BC starts phasing fans in before the season is over. We've shown we can handle these things and it would be a good step forward for everyone.

Three Simple Keys
1. Dominate on the Defensive Line again. That was the most surprising and enjoyable aspect of the Duke game. If we do that again against Texas State, I don't see their offense getting on track.
2. Get Jurkovic more involved in the running game. The passing got better as the day progressed, but I still think there are lots of big plays for him in the read option attack. It will also open things up for Bailey.
3. Get others involved in the passing game. Flowers and Long will get all the attention. There should be plenty of plays for the other guys now.

Gambling Notes
-- BC has won two straight home openers
-- Texas State has never beaten a P5 team
-- Sun Belt teams are 6-42 against ACC teams all time
The current line is BC-17.5

Factoid
This is BC's first ever game against a Sun Belt Conference team. I don't expect many in the future because they can get bigger paydays closer to home. This one was all about the scheduling scramble after COVID.

Scoreboard Watching
Louisville v. Pitt features two future opponents. Plus, the loser will probably drop out of the rankings leaving hope for a surprising team in Chestnut Hill to sneak in.

I hope to see...
A big day from Bailey. He doesn't need to be Dillon, but it would be nice to see him break some long runs or come out of traffic into a big score. It would help other areas of the offense too.

BC is in trouble if...
If it is close in the end. We have a lot more talent but are still all in the getting to know you stage. (Even the staff to some extent.) The players don't have the track record with one another to know what to call in a tight game. I would hate to see the tension and chaos of a close game. Dumb things happen.

Overall
While I am giving Hafley and Company a lot of leeway with this season, they can't lose this game. I don't think they will either. I think the D looks great again. I think our offense is a bit uneven but gets enough big plays that BC doesn't even get scared.
Final Score: BC 30, Texas State 13

Great beginning

It was only one game but the Hafley era had a pretty perfect start. After scoring on their first possession, BC struggled a bit in the first half. But solid D kept them ahead. In the second half both BC units exploded and BC ran away with the game.

There will be a lot to digest and discuss in the coming days, but this was fun and promising.

Game Day: Duke

 No comments this year.

What you need to know

Weather: In the 60s with little chance of rain. Perfect football weather.

TV: This will be on your regional Sports Network. Here is the list of affiliates.

Radio: SiriusXM 382

What will Hafley's Defense look like and how long will it take BC to adjust?

One of the benefits of running Spaz's Cover 2 defense so long was that every player knew what to do, especially by the time he had been in the system a year or two. Smart players then almost become coaches on the field because they could then help put other guys in the right spot. (The real breakdown of Spaz's D occurred as the talent declined and McGovern and Spaz couldn't get on the same page once Spaz became head coach.

When Don Brown took over the D, he implemented his heavy blitz package. The was about as opposite as could be from Spaz and took a few seasons to adjust. We didn't have the talent or experience. But once he got both, the D was lethal. He put a lot of responsibility on his DBs, but they delivered and BC had one of the best Ds in the country. Once Brown left, BC then saw things erode again. It was partially due to tweaks made by his successors and a drop in talent.

This brings us to the Jeff Hafley/Tem Lukabu. A first time Head Coach and his first time Defensive Coordinator. They worked together at Rutgers, but I don't think they will be running Schiano's old scheme. We know from Ohio State that when Hafley had his own D, he ran a Cover 3 in the Pete Carroll Single-high mold. 

The Cover 3 in Carroll's world puts the DBs in single coverage where they are trying to prevent the big play and funnel the WRs into certain areas. They play behind the WR so it might appear a little soft and won't manhandle the WRs like the Don Brown DBs did. 

With the DBs preventing the big plays, the LBs (and a Safety) get all the underneath stuff. This helps BC since our LBs are probably our most talented position group on the defensive side.

At Ohio State, Hafley also had all defensive players watching the ball. There weren't run stoppers assigned...they were all supposed to stop the run. Help, leverage and keeping assignments simple were the key. The front guys are reading the backfield and chasing the QB and/or RB.

If Hafley follows his Ohio State model, his D will be pretty simple and standard. Not a lot of blitzing or anything particularly unique on early downs. It will seem more like Spaz than Brown.

I think simplifying the D will make things better than they were last year. Clearly there were lots of assignment breakdowns. That alone will make a difference. Hafley also put an emphasis on tackling at Ohio State. I hope that improves as well. But we will all find out more on Saturday.

For more reading on Xs and Os under Hafley at Ohio State, I recommend these three articles:

1. Hafley brings a renewed focus on pattern-match coverage to Ohio State

2. Why OSU prefers a 'vision and break' style of zone coverage

3. Emulating Pete Carroll's single high defense in 2019

BC-Duke preview

I am still trying to figure out if the unusual circumstances to the start of the Jeff Hafley era is a good thing or bad thing. He lost the chance to have a normal transition and season preparation and the guy who hired him left before Hafley coached his first game. However, because of COVID and this season's unique schedule and playing environment, I think expectations and pressure are minimal. BC could finish with one or two wins and I think most of us would be forgiving. Fortunately I don't think it will get that messy. I see Hafley as someone who will adapt quickly, manage the season well and bring some fun back to BC.

What's on my mind (not totally related to this game)
I am selfishly a little disappointed to see the Big Ten and Pac 12 scramble to get back to playing. While I am happy for their players and fans, part of me already started thinking that with a limited number of Power 5 teams playing, BC might actually get into a real bowl. Now we will be back to playing in whatever bowl will have us. 

Three Simple Keys

1. BC needs to run a lot and with the QB. Cignetti will have his own style and brings a better passing system than anything Addazio tried to run. But let's not rush into it this week. Duke showed issues with run stopping last week. BC needs to keep it on the ground and pound away. Assuming Jurkovic starts, I also want to see him in the running game. Based on what we've seen of his limited prior action, his legs should be an advantage.
2. Get Brice out of the pocket. Against the Irish, Brice did not look good when he was flushed. He made some bad decisions and took a few sacks. He is not someone who is going to beat us with his legs. 
3. Manage the game well. This is Jeff Hafley's first game as a head coach. I don't expect everything to be perfect Day 1, but I hope there are no glaring issues with clocks or timeouts. 

Gambling Notes
-- BC leads the series 4-3
-- Duke won the last two games in the series
-- Our last three coaches have all won their BC debuts
The current line is BC+6.5

Factoid
This is the latest that BC has played its opener since 1981.

Scoreboard Watching
There are no divisions this year, so we have to pay attention to the entire ACC. Pitt-Syracuse is a matchup of future opponents. It might tell us something about both teams.

I hope to see...
Jurkovic starting and playing well. BC is being somewhat coy about the QB situation. I appreciate Dennis Grosel and all he did last year. But if we are going to be something special this year, I think we need a dynamic QB.

BC is in trouble if...
We don't get any pressure from the front four. Our linebackers are very good (potentially great). Our DBs are young, but given Hafley's background, I think he can coach them up. The big question is the Defensive Line. They need to be much better than they were last year.

Overall
I think we are entering a special window for BC sports. I think Hafley will be great and it all starts Saturday. This won't be a perfect game. There will be plenty of rust. But I think we pull away in the second half.
Final Score: BC 28, Duke 17

Season Prediction Part III: what will happen

There have been years under certain coaches where BC Football's record wasn't just predictable, it was a certainty. Most notably and recently under Addazio. This year is a total unknown and we should all be thankful. In these times, sports should be a fun, community building escape. When you dislike the coach and the product on the field is boring and predictable, the escape becomes a punishment. 

Jeff Hafley has done everything right so far. It gets a bit harder Saturday. But regardless of what happens, the fact that none of us know what to expect is exciting. Are we going to shock the world? Be a disaster? Probably neither. This is still BC. But I do think we are in for a fun year and here is how it will play out. This serves as my official prediction.

What will happen

at Duke. Win. We go heavy run since Bailey and the Oline are our best assets.

Texas State. Win. I am assuming Jurk emerges as the clear starter after this game.

North Carolina. Loss. At this point I assume the D will still have some rough transition moments.

Pitt. Win. A lot of folks seem to be high I Pitt. I am not. I think we match up well.

at Virginia Tech. Loss. I think this could be a shootout. We just end up on the wrong end.

Georgia Tech. Win. At 4-2, we would start to get some genuine respect. This is right around the time of the Big Ten's debut, so still unranked.

at Clemson. Loss. Hafley knows Clemson well but I still think the talent difference is too big.

at Syracuse. Win. A back to basics game. We pound them again.

Notre Dame. Win. Huge attention getter. The students storm the field in the most socially distant and responsible way possible.

Louisville. Loss. This would be a big letdown, but I don't see us getting through the season without a few hiccups.

at Virginia. Win. A nice way to end a strange regular season.

With this, BC would finish 7-4 (6-4 in ACC play). That record would not be enough for an ACC Championship slot nor a big bowl game. But I think we get invited to a low level bowl (if they happen) like Detroit. I think we win that against a terrible Big Ten team and finish the season 8-4. Probably not enough to be ranked, but a great start to the Hafley era. 

Season Prediction Part II: Best Case Scenario

As I referenced in Part I, I am very optimistic on the Hafley era. Yet at the end of the day, this is still his first year and he is a first-time head coach. He also inherited a patchwork roster and had his entire transition and training camp disrupted by a global pandemic. There are plenty of unknowns, but here is how it might play out if everything goes right. My actual predictions post Wednesday.

Best Case Scenario

at Duke. Win. BC looks much improved on D and win with ball control and rushing on offense. A good opener.

Texas State. Win. No scares for this unplanned game. BC handles them and the D looks strong again.

North Carolina. Loss. In their first early test, BC comes up a little short in a back and forth game. Optimism remains high.

Pitt. Win. Maybe I am taking them lightly, but I see us beating Pitt in all three of my scenarios.

at Virginia Tech. Win. The offense is coming around (with Jurk) and get its first big road win. BC now enters the Top 25.

Georgia Tech. Win. This is a game where the OLine wins the day and controls throughout. 

at Clemson. Loss. This game gets a ton of hype in the run up. All the talking heads ask "is this the only team that might beat Clemson?" We don't as we can't outscore them. BC remains ranked.

at Syracuse. Win. I think BC can do what we did last year and run all over them.

Notre Dame. Win. Jurk's revenge. We help spoil their season. Opinions on Hafley move from well liked to beloved.

Louisville. Win. BC is flying high. This is a tough game, but we come out ahead. 

at Virginia. Win. BC stays focused and finishes the season with a nice, no-nonsense win.

This would leave BC at 9-2 (8-2 in ACC play). Who knows what bowls will or will not happen. I also don't know if the Big Ten and Pac 12 will be able to play in all of their respective bowl partnerships. But in this scenario, I don't think BC makes the ACC Championship Game with two conference losses. I still think the ACC will protect their partners first and the bigger bowl will get priority. So, I see us to the Camping World Bowl (Orlando) against one of the bottom rung SEC teams. I think we win giving us an improbable 10 win season and a Top 15 ranking. This makes Hafley the hottest coach in the country (who may get hired away), but it is worth it for this sort of season.

Season Prediction Part I: Worst Case Scenario

 Another new era, yet an old tradition: looking at various ways the season could play out. Aside from a new coach and QB, this year is unprecedented with COVID, expanded ACC games, Notre Dame in conference, and empty stadiums. I am optimistic in general about Hafley and the season, but at this point anything is possible. Here is how it could go wrong. Best case and my actual predictions follow Tuesday and Wednesday.

Worst Case Scenario

at Duke: Loss. A sloppy game where our offense can't sustain anything. Duke does enough to win and looks a little more prepared given they've already played a game.

Texas State. Win. A much closer game than we want. We run on them, but they hang around enough to give us a scare.

North Carolina. Loss. One of the better teams on the schedule. Even when I am being optimistic, I still see this as a tough game.

Pitt. Win. Another close game. I think Pitt's D will be better than ours and but we pound away like we did at the end of last year. In this scenario Jurk is struggling and Bailey is really our whole offense.

at Virginia Tech. Loss. I don't think this is a great VT team but do think winning on the road at Blacksburg (even partially filled) with a new coach and QB is a lot to ask.

Georgia Tech. Win. Like the Pitt game, I think this will be close. I think Tech is a program in transition too, but we get a few breaks and get another win. At 3-3, people are feeling very happy with the season.

at Clemson. Loss. Did you see Clemson against Wake? This won't even be close.

at Syracuse. Win. If Clemson looks unbeatable, Syracuse looks very beatable. I don't love trying to win on the road there in a normal year, but think we control on the ground.

Notre Dame. Loss. Notre Dame might not be at Clemson's level, but they have more firepower than we do. Jurk's revenge comes up short (in this scenario).

Louisville. Loss. BC can't bounce back and the D still seems short on talent.

at Virginia. Loss. A losing streak to end the season is tough. Like the early days of Coughlin and TOB, the team plays hard, but doesn't get over the hump.

Even in this strange year, 4-7 won't get BC bowling. It is a disappointment but even in the worst case scenario, I think Hafley will be a good long-term bet.

BC finally locks in its 2020 schedule

Football scheduling is complicated under normal seasons. It is uncharted territory in 2020. But after lots of weeks of scrambling, BC finalized its lone non-conference game and will host Texas State on September 26. Yes, Texas State. As for the how and why...

Despite many BC fans finding the "+1" pointless, BC had to schedule someone. The conference owes ESPN a certain amount of inventory and the +1 is part of that deal. The original intent of the +1 was to preserve the traditional non-conference rivalry games. Obviously the SEC didn't find those games as critical, yet the ACC stuck with their model (because of TV money). It wasn't going to be a problem until numerous conferences and independents decided to cancel their fall season.

After Ohio and the MAC shutdown their season, BC's original intent was to schedule someone close, cheap and easy. UConn and UMass were floated most often and made sense. Both scrapped their season. There were plenty of other options, but it suddenly became very expensive and very risky. Good teams wanted the game but at a high price. With Alumni empty, BC wasn't going to pay over the top to have a tough mid-major give us a handful. Lots of people hoped for Army, but Army had its pick of who to play and will actually play 12 games this year.

That left lots of fringe FBS programs as targets. BC landed on Texas State. They were available on our desired date, they are not strong (3-9 last year) and should provide a nice early teaching moment for Hafley.

Will fans be excited about this one? No, but they can't come anyway. This is a made for TV tune up and will hopefully be just what BC needs at the time. Under normal circumstances I would be livid about this type of game. This year it make all the sense in the world and was a good early decision by Pat Kraft.