Talent: 2009 vs 2012

On Saturday Eagle Outsider posters questioned if any of our current starters would start for our 2007 or 2008 teams. To me that felt like an argument designed to make any BC team look bad. 2007 and 2008 were epic years when a variety of different factors (including talent) all came together. What I felt was a more reasonable comparison was Spaz's first year as head coach 2009.

The 2009 season had a millions reasons to fall apart but didn't. BC was coming off the confusing coaching change and the devastating news of Mark Herzlich's cancer. Plus all the quarterbacks on our roster were new to college football. Yet to Spaz's and the players' credit, that team did enough to win and made a bowl game. Since 2009 we've been on a decline and although talent is a factor, it is not the only issue. Just compare the talent of our current roster to 2009.

2009 Offense:
WR -- Justin Jarvis
WR -- Rich Gunnell
LT -- Anthony Castonzo
LG -- Emmett Cleary**
C -- Matt Tennant
RG -- Thomas Claiborne
RT -- Rich Lapham
TE -- Chris Pantale**
FB -- Lars Anderson
RB -- Montel Harris
QB -- Dave Shinskie

Which current players would start now? Rettig is starting over Shinskie now. Pantale would start if he were healthy. Cleary is already a starter (although at another position). Other than that, maybe Wetzel at Right Tackle. It might not be obvious, but I would start Amidon over Justin Jarvis. Amidon's current run is much better than Jarvis's best at BC.

The real drop off comes at the offensive line and at running back. But once again, that's Spaz's problem. He ran off Harris and has yet to find someone as reliable (in three years!). He also has not developed the OL well. Things may be getting better, but OL should never be a weakness for BC. I don't think Spaz ever appreciated our legacy at the position. If he did, he wouldn't have let their performance slip as far as it did.

2009 Defense:
DE -- Alex Albright
DT -- Austin Giles
DT -- Damik Scafe
DE -- Jim Ramella
SLB -- Mike Morrissey
MLB -- Mike McLaughlin
WLB -- Luke Kuechly
SS -- Marcellus Bowman
FS -- Wes Davis
FC -- DeLeon Gause
BC -- Roderick Rollins

Which current players would start now? Look at that unit above. Is it all that different from the group that just allowed Northwestern to run 100 plays on us? We miss Kuechly, but 2009 Kuechly wasn't 2011. I would also argue that Clancy and KPL would start over Morrissey and McLaughlin. The 2009 secondary is better at every position, but still not an all star squad. Although neither were ever all conference, Ramella's and Albright's consistency was much better than our current DEs. Scafe was very good, but I would say Ramsey and Appiah are as good if not better than Giles.

[Also note that current players Colin Larmond, Jim Noel, Mike Marscovetra, and Kaleb Ramsey were all on the two deep.]

I could go back to some other randoms years under TOB and also find a roster of similar talent. I don't think our 2012 team is filled with future NFL stars, but historically similar BC teams have won more. There are many factors in play, but head coaching is the biggest factor. When I say Spaz is not a good coach, it is not just about his terrible interviews or head scratching use of timeouts. It is also about how we approach recruiting, how we develop players, how he interacts with his staff, how we practice and how we prepare for games. I also think it is about passion and belief. The 2009 team overachieved in part because there was still a level of confidence and belief left over from the 2007 and 08 teams. That's gone now and we will need a new coach to change the attitude.

BC-Miami preview

A new season. A new start. That's what we get on Saturday. People talk about the wins trending down the past few seasons, but the fun around BC football has also slid. I desperately want that to end. Winning would be nice. But I'll settle for some exciting games and playing to win. We fans think we deserve it. I know the players deserve it. I don't expect a classic game on Saturday but the teams match up well enough that it could be fun again.

**NEW FEATURE** Hot Seat Thermometer
In college football every game is a must win, but even more so when you hold the hottest seat in the sport. Each week I will be rating Spaz's seat depending on the game, the opponent, the pressure and the fanbase's mood. This week is very important. A win can set the tone for the entire season and set BC back on a path to the postseason. A loss will dampen the mood everywhere around the team.
Temperature: toasty

Overlooked storyline: rivalry renewed?
BC played Miami annually until we followed them into the ACC. Of course our "partner" was slotted in the other division meaning we only play them on a cross-divisional schedule. However, with the ACC expanding there is still a chance that the divisions could be shuffled. I hope that whatever new pairings come down, that the ACC tries to honor some of the old Big East matchups.

Three simple keys
1. Tempo. We've heard about changes in tempo before. Now I want to see it. If we expect to beat anyone this year, scoring less than 20 points a game is not going to do it. To improve scoring we need to move faster and create more possessions and opportunities.
2. Get to Morris. One of the reasons BC had success against Miami last year was the pressure we put on Harris. Morris is a different QB, but forcing him to rush throws is the key to slowing their offense.
3. A big day for Rettig. Rettig started really well against Miami last year. He needs to build off of that momentum this game.

Gambling Notes
-- BC has never beaten Miami in back-to-back seasons
-- Spaz is 0-3 in his ACC openers
-- Spaz is 2-1 in home openers
The current line is BC+2

Factoid
This is the earliest in the season that BC has played Miami. Prior to this game, the earliest the date the two teams played was September 4, 1993.

Scoreboard watching
All the ACC games are important but I will be following TOB and NC State. Although Tennessee is down, this is still a big game for the ACC. We need the old Marine to show up on a national stage.

I hope to see...
Andre Williams have a big game. His "comeback" has been a big preseason storyline. We know he has the power, but can he get a good feel for his holes and blocking. Is he healthy? We will see on Saturday.

BC is in trouble if...
The offensive line still struggles. The collapse of the oline has been one of the root causes of Spaz's problems. The talent is there. Now we need to execute.

Bottom line
I think Doug Martin is going to make an immediate impact. I think the offense comes out smoking and the defense contains Miami. I don't know what it will mean for the season, but it will feel nice to have some fun again.
Final Score: BC 31, Miami 14

Season Prediction Part III: what will happen

I am a believer in Chase Rettig. I like what Doug Martin brings to the offense and the program. I think there is more talent on defense than people realize. Yet I don't have faith in the man in charge. Readers criticize me for kicking Spaz while he's down or for spreading too much pessimism. That's not my intention. I just think back to multiple games last year that turned on coaching decisions. Was it bad luck? Bad coaching? I don't know. But I don't think it will all be fixed by a few staff changes and Spaz being another year wiser. As I said in the best case scenario, there are still a lot of good pieces on this team. The schedule is manageable. The ultimate question is can we get out of our own way? [This is my official prediction for the season.]

What will happen

Miami. Win. I think this will be a low scoring defensive game. I give BC the edge with Rettig making some big passes down the stretch.

Maine. Win. No underdog scare. BC controls fairly comfortably.

at Northwestern. Loss. This is one of those games where I think coaching will become a factor. We're on the road against a team that can put up points and we waste too many opportunities.

Clemson. Loss. I think this will be a lot like the Northwestern game in that BC can't keep up in a shoot out only this time against a better offense.

at Army. Win. A solid performance that gets us back above .500 and thinking bowl game.

at Florida State. Loss. I expect Florida State to be a Top 5 team at this point. I think we will give them a tough game but not have enough to pull out a win.

at Georgia Tech. Loss. I think their offense will cause us problems. Unlike the other shootouts, I actually think we can score on Georgia Tech. I predict it will come down to coaching and Paul Johnson will make a call that changes the game in their favor.

Maryland. Win. In every scenario I see us beating Maryland. I think we will pound it again and I think they will really struggle to score on us.

at Wake Forest. Win. Even though Wake is in a down cycle, this is a nice win for the program and Rettig. Getting a W on the road when the season is still teetering provides a nice confidence boost.

Notre Dame. Loss. We play them hard (as usual) but lose on some big special teams plays. Dropping to 0-4 against the Irish hurts Spaz with the casual BC fan.

Virginia Tech. Loss. I think this game is close and Spaz goes ultra conservative, but the Hokies hang on.

at NC State. Loss. I fear the team will check out at this point and NC State will still have a lot to play for.

That leave BC 5-7 (3-5) and at home during bowl season. The new Athletic Director fires Spaz shortly after the NC State game and we begin anew. 

SI hits the nail on the head

This picture is going to get a workout this season.

SI posted their season predictions. Most of their analysts expect Spaz to be fired. Mallory Rubin summed it up best:

A two-win season won't cool the nation's warmest butt. Sometimes promoting from within doesn't work. And sometimes it takes four seasons to admit it.

Season Prediction Part II: best case scenario

This team should be better than expected. If TOB or Jags were still around, I know we would surprise people, challenge for the division and certainly go bowling. I don't feel that way about Spaz. I don't trust him to have the team ready (look at our past starts) nor do I trust him to lead BC to victory in tight games. Still, the schedule is not overly tough. I think Rettig is due for a break out and I think our Defense will be very good. If Spaz doesn't get in his own way, if we get a few lucky bounces and if a few key guys finally reach their potential, this is how the season could play out.

Best Case Scenario 

Miami. Win. The 'Canes are hurting as much, if not more than we are. We are better than we were last November and they are worse. Plus it is at home. We win comfortably.

Maine. Win. Never in doubt. All the QBs get to play in a BC romp.

at Northwestern. Win. This games makes up for one of Spaz's most frustrating losses from 2011. This time BC is ready for their offense and slows them down most of the game.

Clemson. Win. This is a shocker and catches the college football world by storm. BC steals the game by forcing multiple turnovers. The team enters the top 25.

at Army. Win. BC has some trouble staying focused following the huge upset of Clemson. The game is sloppy, but we hold on for the win.

at Florida State. Loss. Because of the teams' rankings and records, this becomes a prime time national game. FSU proves to be too much and hands BC its first loss of the season.

at Georgia Tech. Loss. Like BC, Georgia Tech comes into the game ranked and one of the surprises of the season. BC has fits with their offense and losses two in a row.

Maryland. Win. The Terps come to town at just the right time. Rettig has a strong day and BC shuts out their offense. This ends BC's skid. BC is now bowl eligible again.

at Wake Forest. Win. Although struggling on the season, Wake Forest still gives us a game. We hold on and get back into the rankings.

Notre Dame. Loss. This is the game that empties out the Spaz bandwagon. We lose an ugly game to the Irish as they run up the score and we look lost.

Virginia Tech. Loss. It is a sloppy, ugly game. Neither team plays well. Virginia Tech makes fewer mistakes and wins. This ends any hope BC had of winning the division.

at NC State. Win. With Gene out of the picture, the pressure to beat TOB not what it was, but Spaz still ends the regular season on a high note.

This leaves BC 8-4 (5-3). Not elite, but certainly better than last year. BC gets invited to the Belk Bowl and loses to Cincinnati. The new AD has seen enough and Spaz is "retired," gets all the money owed to him and some ceremonial role with the school for a few years.

The week ahead

This is a bit of a house keeping post, but I want to let people know about the blog's content for the next week.

• Monday I will post my annual worst-case scenario prediction for the season
• Tuesday I will post my annual best-case scenario prediction for the season
• Wednesday I will have a guest post from a Miami blogger
• Thursday I will post my annual, official prediction for the season
• Thursday I will also post my Miami game preview
• Friday I will post game watch locations. If your local BC chapter is having one, please email me.
• This week will also mark the debut of a new feature interview. The first guest will be the voice of Boston College Jon Meterparel. 
• I will obviously post any relevant news or links that may come up over the course of the week.

I don't expect much real news on the AD search between now and the game. Sullivan is still gathering information and soliciting advice and names from friends of the program. If anything does come up, I will update what I know.

If anyone is in Spain and attends any of the basketball games, please send along your pics and thoughts. The games will not be streamed by any English-speaking web service, but may be available in Spanish.

Next week will mark the beginning of the end for the Spaz era. I am hoping for a fun, surprising season. I have not been this unsure and excited about a BC season in years. I hope we get off to a good start. 

Who will be the next true freshman to make an impact?

It used to be BC redshirted everyone. That was TOB's preferred roster management method. As players have developed faster and as BC's needs have changed, we've started using true freshmen more often the last six seasons. Anthony Castonzo, Montel Harris, Luke Kuechly and Chase Rettig all played important roles in their first seasons. In 2011 many true freshmen played although none had the immediate impact that the four previously mentioned did.

Will 2012 see any newbies break out? I doubt we will see anyone start from Day 1 on the offensive line like Castonzo did. I also think our depth at running back will preclude the use of Craan. Despite Pantale going down, I don't think we'll use true freshmen tight ends. That really leaves the defensive side of the ball and wide receiver as areas where there are plenty of snaps and plenty of opportunity. Here are three guys who have a chance to breakout.

1. Harrison Jackson. I am not reading too much into the first scrimmage. Jackson's chances are based more on Martin's willingness to throw it often. Think of the Logan days. We threw it so often that all sorts of young players got the chance to step up.

2. Karim Zoungrana. Like Jackson he's in a high opportunity position -- WR. Because he enrolled early, Zoungrana also has a leg up on the other true freshmen as far as understanding the offense. Plus, he's old! Born in 1992, he's on average two years older than most of his freshmen teammates (why don't we recruit more Canadians?)

3. Steven Daniels. Although Daniels is trying to break into our deepest position, I like his chances to make an impact. He's essentially had his redshirt year by spending last season in prep school. His St. X teammates Kuechly and Duggan also got on the field early in their BC careers.

Team Poster 2012

Here is our 2012 poster. No stars, lots of players and an emphasis on BC's iconic buildings. I like it.

Ignoring the first scrimmage

BC held its first scrimmage of the preseason Saturday. The offense looked shaky at first, some key players sat out and some random players stepped up. In other words, it was the same first scrimmage we've been having since forever. At this point I won't worry. If the offense looks as bad by the fourth scrimmage, then I will worry.  Meter, Blauds and the Herald all provided coverage.